The Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month LowThe Nikkei 225 Index Has Plummeted to a Nine-Month Low
As shown by the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart:
→ In less than a month, the index price has dropped by more than 25%, providing grounds to suggest the start of a bear market;
→ The price has approached the psychological level of 30,000 points – the last time the price was this low was in autumn 2023.
Bearish sentiment is being driven by a combination of the following factors:
→ Negative news from the US labour market, published on Friday – this has significantly increased discussions about the likelihood of a recession;
→ The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike last Wednesday to support the excessively weak yen.
As we wrote on 15 July, while analysing the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ Signs of bearish activity were observed around the 41,330 level;
→ The upward channel may break in the second half of the year.
It turned out that the bullish channel was broken much earlier and in an extremely aggressive manner – the bulls attempted to resume the trend from its lower boundary (shown by the black arrow), taking advantage of the 38,000 support, but were defeated.
What could happen next?
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart shows:
→ The price broke through (shown by the orange arrow) the previous resistance at 34,000, which is around 50% of the upward move from A to B;
→ The RSI index has moved into deep oversold territory;
→ The price has fallen into the region of the block formed by the 30,400 support and the psychological level of 30,000 – note the strong rebound from it, indicating the activation of demand (these are signs of an emotional selling climax in Wyckoff method terminology).
Given the abnormal surge in volatility, it is reasonable to assume that the market may enter a consolidation phase to establish a new balance of supply and demand, taking into account the latest news releases. It is possible that the mentioned support block will hold, and the 34,000 level will influence the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price in forming the upper boundary of the anticipated consolidation range.
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Japan 225
#NIKKEI 225 - Is a world economic crisis coming?#NI225 #NIKKEI 225 Japan Stock Exchange
First of all, let me start by stating that the graph is based on 3-Month data
I have detailed all the necessary notes on the chart.
The white trend line is the balance zone. Below and above it caused completely different reasons as can be seen.
With the beginning of 2024, the mismatch on the RSI side signaled that it would fall. Therefore, a serious profit was realized.
Perhaps the first steps of a major crisis may have been taken as Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 1997 and the Japanese Yen was recalled to the country.
Nikkei 225 Suffers Worst Decline Since 1987 Amid U.S. Economic CThe Nikkei 225 index in Japan plunged by 12.4%, marking its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. The index closed at 31,458.42, shedding 4,451.28 points. The sell-off was triggered by concerns about the U.S. economy and followed a 5.8% drop on Friday. Major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw significant declines. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and a stronger yen have further pressured the market. Investors now focus on upcoming trade data from China and Taiwan, and central bank decisions from Australia and India.
The Nikkei snaps a 6-day losing steakNikkei futures found some stability on Monday around the May high, before going on to snap a 6-day losing streak. The daily RSI (2) was oversold to further suggest mean reversion could be due. And with Wall Street showing signs of stability ahead of tech earnings, we suspect a bounce could be due.
The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI spent some time in oversold before a 2-bar bullish reversal triggered a rebound at a key support zone. Bulls could seek dips within Monday's range on the assumption of a break above 40,000, with a minimum upside target of 40,500 in mind.
If sentiment improves from here, perhaps a move to 41k could be on the cards near the June VPOC and gap resistance.
Strong JPY, Weak Nikkei. Trading Plans Post FallAs the JPY has gained value, on propping up rumours via Japan Authorities, we have seen a drop in the Nikkei.
The pro growth rates set by the BOJ have allowed the Japanese Nikkei to grow to higher highs continually, inline with the positive market sentiment spurred on by a better global economic outlook and a soft landing.
A retracement, however, would reflect some of the economic woes induced by low rates. Anything that turns this around will likely take us back to highs.
Conversely, a continuation of current sentiment will bring us lower. Any longs, therefore, must be tiny, if any. Save them till later.
Nikkei-Watching levelsTradingview Ideas:
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Will watch levels 41,000 which is about now at 40500 area. bias still on upside but not till i see some change it this near term down move..shall monitor...
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NIKKEI RISKY LONG|
✅NIKKEI is the main japanese
Stock Index and is has been
Following the Yen in the opposite
Direction. The weaker the Yen
The stronger the Index, so now
Following a sharp correction on
The Yen we are seeing a correction
On Nikkei as well, but we are
Bullish biased mid-terma and
As the index is about to retest
The significant horizontal support
Level of 41,000 we will be
Expecting a local bullish rebound
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
NIKKEI 225 (BANKSTER CALL)I'm loving the way this chart is looking. But I also love the fundamentals here. US Govt. is working overtime to satisfy our allies here in South East Asia, and in the Norther 'Emerging Markets' Zone (S.Korea). However, with all that's going in the South China Sea, Japan has stepped as an ally to help us buffer some of the regions tensions. Nikkei 225 contains some of the worlds hardest hitting corporate players. So a purchase from Warren Buffett isn't a 'scratch your back, i'll scratch yours until...' but a sizable investment into the future of one of the worlds most productive societies.
With this being said, I
decided to place 25% of my portfolio into this play, with a hedge nearby in the event we retest levels seen on the Monthly chart.
Going forward, we will build out plays that will cover the risk until we are risk neutral. Then I will expose our portfolio some more to this play.
Walking the streets Fukuoka just a few years ago, during what was seen as tough economic times, it was hard to tell with how packed the shopping malls in the prefecture were.
*A consumer based economy with tons of potential.
Now, based in Bangkok, I will add the Chinese are controlling the regions most valuable retail assets with their 'unlimited' purchasing power, but the Japanese are strategically in lock-step in the more quieter ways and in economies were the value of their assets can see a larger blast north from foreign investment.
This is not investment advice. I'm not responsible for any decisions that you make after reviewing this information. Trade Responsibly.
The American Bankster
NIKKEI225 Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI225 is trading in
An uptrend and the index
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 41,000 and the breakout
Is confirmed which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
NIKKEI225 Forms A Bullish Triangle? Elliott Wave AnalysisNIKKEI225 is moving in a strong five-wave impulsive bullish cycle, which looks to be unfinished. Currently we can see it consolidating and it can be forming and potentially finishing a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), which can push the price even higher for wave (5) from Elliott wave perspective.
Bullish confirmation is above 40k, while invalidation level remains at 34k.
Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line).
Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month.
Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern.
As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle).
At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns).
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Nikkei to form a higher low?JP225YJPY - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 37830 level.
We look to Buy at 37830 (stop at 37530)
Our profit targets will be 38580 and 38680
Resistance: 38570 / 41135 / 42120
Support: 36990 / 35705 / 34425
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Where my 40k NKD target came from & why it could go higher laterI've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from
For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand
In theory there's no reason why a solid year can't be spent consolidating under that resistance a la 2006
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
NIKKEI Gradually turning bearish for the next 3 months.Nikkei (NI225) has given us one of the best long-term trades last year (May 26 2022, see chart below), as we gave a signal for the most optimal buy entry one could expect, on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 it has now surpassed 40000:
The question is obvious: what do we do from here, especially after the remarkable bullish start to 2024? To answer that, we have to to go to the logarithmic scale on the 1W time-frame and observe the Channel Up since the June 2012 bottom.
The biggest fact is that the current bullish leg of the Channel (since the March 2022 Low), has already surpassed the roughly +63% magnitude of the previous two legs by +3%. This suggests that we are forming the current Higher High but the 1W RSI hasn't yet made a Higher High of its own, so the rally may be extended for a few weeks more.
What has been very consistent though during this 12-year Channel Up, is the tops as identified by the Sine Waves. The next Wave Top is on January 2025 and that would be the time to sell towards a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test again. Nikkei though has formed the previous Highs on Double Tops, so it is possible to make a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) correction now and then rebound towards January 2025 for a Double Top peak.
As a result, we now turn bearish on Nikkei for the next 3 months, targeting 36000 and after the 1W MA50 holds, buy again for an end-of-year target at 40000, before the next correction/ Bear Cycle starts.
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NIKKE 225 Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
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2-24-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
JPN225: Continuation idea with explanationToday's focus: JPN225
Pattern – Continuation
Support – 35,860, 35,500
Resistance – 36,215, 36,718
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update.
We are looking at the JPN225 today, but it's more from an educational standpoint around a continuation pattern that uses the moving averages to help qualify the setup. This setup comes from a system called the Floor Trader Method. Yes, I know floor traders most likely didn't use moving averages. But if you read it, you will see it mainly focuses on price position and retracement shape. The moving averages are there to assist in seeing the trend and qualify.
We have run over some aspects of the method and how it can be seen in today's price setup. We have also run over targets and stop points with both a higher perspective and a lower failed perspective.
It will be interesting to see if the JPN225 can retest its previous resistance and highs and set up a new fast trend.
Good trading.