Bitcoin's last chance.Comparison with Nikkei.
1°) Bitcoin line of life will break and the market will create new lows. Higher probabilities
2°) Last chance for Bitcoin if the market decides to reproduce this scenario of the H&S Bottom without creating new lows.
This could happen if the Bitcoin structure rejected more lows and decided to produce the H&S bottom at higher usd levels than Nikkei did. Lower probabilities.
Japan 225
JP225USD Approaching Resistance, Potential Reversal!JP225USD is approaching its resistance at 22935 (100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially reverse down to its support at 22435 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resiustance at 98% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
JP225USD Approaching Resistance, Potential Reversal!JP225USD is approaching its resistance at 22756 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially react off, causing price to reverse down to its support at 22391 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
Nikkei 225 bounced off support, potential to rise further!Nikkei 225 has bounced off its support at 22335 (38.2% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, ascending support line) where it has the potential to rise to its resistance at 22728 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
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NIKKEI, Daily Chart Analysis 7/16Implications and Outlook
1. Friday the Thirteenth is almost certainly not that fortunate for many. However, that didn't appear to be the situation for the equity markets. Asia stocks built on Thursday's gains with core market segments more potent throughout the region. The Nikkei Index finished way up plus 1.85%, with only a bit added in by the minus 0.4% decline of the Yen currency.
2. The index further medium-term bullish momentum did hit Mean Resistance at 22696 and is a most likely to turn downwards for the time being.
3. With this impressive rally, the disruption on Mean Resistance of 22696 will undoubtedly bring intermediate short-term bullish implications, having upside target to inner Index Rally 22825 , and Mean Resistance of 23 000 , with further assault on completed Index Rally/May's high resting at 23050.
4. Current Index Strategy Bias: Bullish 60 / Bearish 40
NI225Pennant pattern forming with macd divergence at it's lowest = breakout incoming. White shaded zones are long and short entries. More bearish than bullish on the long term. Look out for a fake break out, big wick candle, and then strong reversal before 2019. Green dotted lines represent support and resistance prices.
USDJPY - watch for a bearish reversalUSDJPY is about to start a downride on daily as you see. It reached the fib arc and repeats the bearish reversal patterns from the past waves. Follow the price to complete that bearish pattern it copies from the past and once it hits the fibonacci arc, we go for a down slide. Then watch for reactions or pullbacks at Gann angles. Every Gann angle line acts as support which price has to break. We can also do Elliot wave wave count once price starts moving downwards. We take TP once Elliot wave 5 is completed! It agrees with our geometrical arc analysis on XAUUSD which is about to start a ride up. Gold and USDJPY 0.02% have negative correlation (-65.5 percent on daily), as you know. You can also short Nikkei (JPN225) as they have +78 % positive correlation. If one thing goes up the other down. Our analysis confirm this correlation.
NIKKEI, Daily Chart Analysis 6/11Implications and Outlook
1. The Nikkei managed to strengthen ever since completing mini Index Dip 21930. The Index saw the Yen currency back to middle 109 handle and trade firmer despite a brief positive print last few trading sessions.
2. The index further short/long-term bullish momentum continues as we approach Mean Resistance 23000, while overall completed Index Rally lays just above at 23050.
3. With overall Index Rally completion upside disruption will undoubtedly bring powerful bullish outbreak implications, having interim downside target to Mean Support of 22520.
4. Current Bullish/Bearish bias advances to 80/20
Nikkei 225: 7th June AnalysisMONTHLY CHART
Price clearly uptrending, strong support at 21k, clearly rejected at 24k. Needs to create a solid area of resistance there, so expecting price to go up there and test if this level is really a relevant resistance level.
21k also a fib respectation, so decent support to range between those levels for a while (potentially)
Conclusion: View is definitely bullish, but rejections mean a potential drawdown on its way.
WEEKLY CHART
Nice support and channel lines lining up to an area of potential support. View on this is neutral/bearish, needs to test that 21k level for further upside move.
Conclusion: View is slightly bearish because of this sell off, looks like it already found bottom. Besides that, stay neutral.
DAILY CHART
Falling wedge broke out, structure is bearish on this one, expecting a move down. Maybe test the highs one more time.
Conclusion: Bearish on this timeframe. Clear downtrend starting, looking for a test of the lows now, which is 22k.
4 HOUR CHART
Steap move up, too steap to hold so it'll probably slow down in momentum and change direction here.
NIKKEI - Formation of Lower High, Weakness AboundLaburlah Technical Coverage (30-MAY, Wednesday):
NIKKEI 225 Futures
Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Trend: Sign of further retracement
2. RSI & Stochastic: Reversing downward
3. MACD: Bearish cross
4. Bollinger band: Sign of going down
5. Support level: 20,780 - 20,910
Disclaimer: The abovementioned is purely for sharing purpose, you should seek advice from relevant personnel and do your own analysis before making your move.
Bitcoin: market psychology and repetitive patterns.Hi,
I compared many times Bitcoin crashing pattern as a x50 speed Nasdaq Composite crashing pattern, both shared some important similarities.
I was expecting an important Bull trap to happen, but the short squeeze, coupled with the double bottom of the February lows, could greatly impact the market mood, and could change the structure and the price levels that this bull trap will create. Why?
Because i see a lot of traders certain that the market bottomed.
I am absolutely careful about the fact that we bottomed and i am 95% certain we did not.
A lot of persons are waiting for a bull run as they can't just deal with a crashing market anymore.
News that the internet media is showing us seems encouraging for Bitcoin.
Well, what about a huge bulltrap heading towards the 12.500/12.900$ instead of a solid bull trap heading towards the 9.200$?
Look at what the over speculating buyers did with the Nikkei.
Expecting such a huge bull run with Bitcoin is a possibility.
People will think that Bitcoin is having a rally, that Bitcoin is going to the moon.
But a rally never quickly happens after a crash, never ever in the history of economics, and this is what people always forget.
They see what they want to see and not what is possible to happen.
Why not to ride this possible Bull trap? I will buy and long, and i will not hesitate to sell and short this market as soon as i spot weakness and opportunities.
Let's see where this bullish wave can lead us to!
NIKKEI, Daily Chart Analysis 5/19Implications and Outlook
1. The Nikkei managed to strengthen on Friday as the day wore on but, aided by the continued decline in the Yen.
2. The index further short-term bullish momentum did hit Index Rally 22950 level, while Key Resistance lays way above at 23468.
3. With this Index Rally completion upside disruption will undoubtedly bring mild short-term bearish implications, having downside target to Mean Support of 22700 and 22400 respectively.
4. Current bullish/bearish bias is 70/30
NIkkei Key LevelsStill plodding along, break of balance last night looking more like range expansion for now. Imagine we have a test of range lows and potentially look to touch upon previous highs & HVN's before any major push up. Top of range grey box looks like a low risk short if we push inside, end of day red likely as longs get paid.
NIKKEI 225 Index, Daily Chart Analysis 5/12Implications and Outlook
1. Further short-term bullish momentum likely to hit Nikkei Index Rally 22971 level, while Key Resistance lays way above at 23468.
2. The break of the Rally will undoubtedly bring serious of the short-term bearish implications, having downside target to Mean Support of 22412.
3. Current bullish/bearish bias is 80/20
4. The Nikkei Index has witnessed a remarkable run, leaping 10% in the last 30 days however only taking the stock index to flat Year To Date. The Yen currency continues to be the key indicator for a great deal of the Index recent recovery, which in fact had drawn much attention when it flirted with a 110 handle.
NIKKEI 225 back in positive trend channelThe Nikkei Index had left the positive trend channel after forming a diamond pattern. It fell on the support at 20.600 (fib retracement 61.8%) and rebounded on this level.
Since march 26 it has risen with volatility and reached the lower limit of the trend channel.
It took some days to break through this resistance and it is still not for sure that it´ll stay inside the channel.
Watching the indicators RSI and ADX - they signal a positive trend. This is why I think NIKKEI will remain in the channel.
If so it should climb up to 22.760 and close a gap (feb 06).
This is a hard resistance and we´ll see if there is enough momentum to come further.
Stop:
If the Index falls back well under the lower limit of the trend channel and / or breaking through the neckline of the diamond pattern at 20960.
NIKKEI 225 Index 5/3The Nikkei Index traded nervously on Wednesday in front of the Fed's announcement as well as US Non-farm Payroll but knowing it will be closed for the rest of the week due to Golden Week holidays. A number of the exporters did find a way to edge ahead. However, results were limited. The overall Index trend sprang out heavy all be it sluggish.
The Index remains above Mean support of 22077 in the past several days, not the time for retracement just yet- first it must complete Index Rally. However, bears are ready to take over, with Key resistance developing at 22457.
Nikkei approaching support, potential bounce! Nikkei is approaching our first support at 22074.3 (horizontal overlap support, 100% Fibonacci extension). A strong bounce might occur above this level, pushing price up to our major resistance at 22423.9 (horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also seeing a bullish divergence and is approaching our major support. A bounce off this level might be a good precursor for a potential rise in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.