Japan 225
Global Markets : Out of Sync ?Till 29 Jan 2018, Everything was in order but after that correction DAX & Nikkei got out of sync with SPX500 & Nifty. The divergence is clearly visible and if both DAX & Nikkei breaks the recent low then it could be the start of the next bearish markets which are long pending since 2008. And the EW wave count on NIfty & SPX500 is showing wave 5 of wave 5 ( a top in sight ) and on other hand Dollar Index is becoming bullish day by day. Any further rally in DXY would derail the last standing emerging markets and with it the SPX500.
Japanese stocks beginning to moveToday’s session saw the Nikkei close above 23,000 for the first time since the January sell-off. The chart below shows the Nikkei well positioned for a rally. Note: a) 3 higher lows b) the index on the right side of a long-term uptrend, and c) the first close higher above a 7 month resistance (the break).
This specific setup offers a good risk-reward: Entry now at 23,100 with a stop-price at 22,000 -last swing higher- for just a 5% risk.
Data based on Japan's Ministry of Finance data, and compiled by CLSA, shows the profitability of corporate Japan surging to its highest level since comparable data started being compiled in 1954. Growing data shows that Japan — in the face of a permanently bearish view of Japan’s demographics, high public debt and historically weak corporate governance — is midway through a historic turnaround in productivity and corporate return on equity. That view, said Morgan Stanley in a report published this week “puts us strongly against the consensus opinion that Japan should remain a structural underweight in global equity portfolios”.
Let's keep an eye on the japanese economy :)If no giant sea monster invades the land, their stock market has a shot at going back to ath.
Right now we are fighting this very important - actually much more important than ath - resistance, but we can see there is bearish divergence on the monthly chart.
And there are many reasons as to why we do not go up. A correction is necessary and I think will happen in the next few months.
But after this has happened, when for example the US economy collapses and investors pull their money out and want to put it elsewhere, it is possible they send it over to Japan. If I were to invest in the next year(s) this is what I would do. Pick solid companies there and let's goooooo!
Buy early in the market cycle thing. I wonder how dividends are?
So many people love pokemon giant robots and lizards, anime etc, Japanese foods but no one loves the Japan stocks.
How much investors put into jp stock should be proportional to how much they take of the culture?
If USA is 100 culture and 50 stock, and Japan is 50 culture, it should be 25 stock right?
They are certainly not as undervalued as below 10.000 points at the extreme of the selling, but once that level is beaten in a few months, very quick growth is possible. The thrill euphoria phases go fast. Just get in early but not too early in other words, unless you want to wait 15 years.
I think I will take a look in a couple of months.
This will take a long time for sure.
Bitcoin's last chance.Comparison with Nikkei.
1°) Bitcoin line of life will break and the market will create new lows. Higher probabilities
2°) Last chance for Bitcoin if the market decides to reproduce this scenario of the H&S Bottom without creating new lows.
This could happen if the Bitcoin structure rejected more lows and decided to produce the H&S bottom at higher usd levels than Nikkei did. Lower probabilities.
JP225USD Approaching Resistance, Potential Reversal!JP225USD is approaching its resistance at 22935 (100% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially reverse down to its support at 22435 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resiustance at 98% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
JP225USD Approaching Resistance, Potential Reversal!JP225USD is approaching its resistance at 22756 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it could potentially react off, causing price to reverse down to its support at 22391 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
Nikkei 225 bounced off support, potential to rise further!Nikkei 225 has bounced off its support at 22335 (38.2% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, ascending support line) where it has the potential to rise to its resistance at 22728 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
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NIKKEI, Daily Chart Analysis 7/16Implications and Outlook
1. Friday the Thirteenth is almost certainly not that fortunate for many. However, that didn't appear to be the situation for the equity markets. Asia stocks built on Thursday's gains with core market segments more potent throughout the region. The Nikkei Index finished way up plus 1.85%, with only a bit added in by the minus 0.4% decline of the Yen currency.
2. The index further medium-term bullish momentum did hit Mean Resistance at 22696 and is a most likely to turn downwards for the time being.
3. With this impressive rally, the disruption on Mean Resistance of 22696 will undoubtedly bring intermediate short-term bullish implications, having upside target to inner Index Rally 22825 , and Mean Resistance of 23 000 , with further assault on completed Index Rally/May's high resting at 23050.
4. Current Index Strategy Bias: Bullish 60 / Bearish 40
NI225Pennant pattern forming with macd divergence at it's lowest = breakout incoming. White shaded zones are long and short entries. More bearish than bullish on the long term. Look out for a fake break out, big wick candle, and then strong reversal before 2019. Green dotted lines represent support and resistance prices.
USDJPY - watch for a bearish reversalUSDJPY is about to start a downride on daily as you see. It reached the fib arc and repeats the bearish reversal patterns from the past waves. Follow the price to complete that bearish pattern it copies from the past and once it hits the fibonacci arc, we go for a down slide. Then watch for reactions or pullbacks at Gann angles. Every Gann angle line acts as support which price has to break. We can also do Elliot wave wave count once price starts moving downwards. We take TP once Elliot wave 5 is completed! It agrees with our geometrical arc analysis on XAUUSD which is about to start a ride up. Gold and USDJPY 0.02% have negative correlation (-65.5 percent on daily), as you know. You can also short Nikkei (JPN225) as they have +78 % positive correlation. If one thing goes up the other down. Our analysis confirm this correlation.
NIKKEI, Daily Chart Analysis 6/11Implications and Outlook
1. The Nikkei managed to strengthen ever since completing mini Index Dip 21930. The Index saw the Yen currency back to middle 109 handle and trade firmer despite a brief positive print last few trading sessions.
2. The index further short/long-term bullish momentum continues as we approach Mean Resistance 23000, while overall completed Index Rally lays just above at 23050.
3. With overall Index Rally completion upside disruption will undoubtedly bring powerful bullish outbreak implications, having interim downside target to Mean Support of 22520.
4. Current Bullish/Bearish bias advances to 80/20
Nikkei 225: 7th June AnalysisMONTHLY CHART
Price clearly uptrending, strong support at 21k, clearly rejected at 24k. Needs to create a solid area of resistance there, so expecting price to go up there and test if this level is really a relevant resistance level.
21k also a fib respectation, so decent support to range between those levels for a while (potentially)
Conclusion: View is definitely bullish, but rejections mean a potential drawdown on its way.
WEEKLY CHART
Nice support and channel lines lining up to an area of potential support. View on this is neutral/bearish, needs to test that 21k level for further upside move.
Conclusion: View is slightly bearish because of this sell off, looks like it already found bottom. Besides that, stay neutral.
DAILY CHART
Falling wedge broke out, structure is bearish on this one, expecting a move down. Maybe test the highs one more time.
Conclusion: Bearish on this timeframe. Clear downtrend starting, looking for a test of the lows now, which is 22k.
4 HOUR CHART
Steap move up, too steap to hold so it'll probably slow down in momentum and change direction here.
NIKKEI - Formation of Lower High, Weakness AboundLaburlah Technical Coverage (30-MAY, Wednesday):
NIKKEI 225 Futures
Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Trend: Sign of further retracement
2. RSI & Stochastic: Reversing downward
3. MACD: Bearish cross
4. Bollinger band: Sign of going down
5. Support level: 20,780 - 20,910
Disclaimer: The abovementioned is purely for sharing purpose, you should seek advice from relevant personnel and do your own analysis before making your move.
Bitcoin: market psychology and repetitive patterns.Hi,
I compared many times Bitcoin crashing pattern as a x50 speed Nasdaq Composite crashing pattern, both shared some important similarities.
I was expecting an important Bull trap to happen, but the short squeeze, coupled with the double bottom of the February lows, could greatly impact the market mood, and could change the structure and the price levels that this bull trap will create. Why?
Because i see a lot of traders certain that the market bottomed.
I am absolutely careful about the fact that we bottomed and i am 95% certain we did not.
A lot of persons are waiting for a bull run as they can't just deal with a crashing market anymore.
News that the internet media is showing us seems encouraging for Bitcoin.
Well, what about a huge bulltrap heading towards the 12.500/12.900$ instead of a solid bull trap heading towards the 9.200$?
Look at what the over speculating buyers did with the Nikkei.
Expecting such a huge bull run with Bitcoin is a possibility.
People will think that Bitcoin is having a rally, that Bitcoin is going to the moon.
But a rally never quickly happens after a crash, never ever in the history of economics, and this is what people always forget.
They see what they want to see and not what is possible to happen.
Why not to ride this possible Bull trap? I will buy and long, and i will not hesitate to sell and short this market as soon as i spot weakness and opportunities.
Let's see where this bullish wave can lead us to!