Prediction of the S&P500 and NIkkei based on financials and CPIIn the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials:
If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below:
1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index.
2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at the Nikkei225 index we can see a few things: when the inflation in the US rose, the Nikkei225 fell 4 out 5 ( a chance of 90% or mathematical: a chance of 0.900). Using maths we know that ABN AMRO has an statistic correlation of 0.70 < r < 0.90 (70% - 90%) to the Nikkei225.
Conclusion: The fInancials are following the NIkkei225, and in turn the Nikkei is following the US CPI (inflation) in a divergence/opposite movement.
3. We can use the inflaton from the US as a staircase for the movement in the S&P500 (on this moment a consolidating market)
Sources: Bloomberg Markets, ING Technical Analyses
NOTE: I don't make any predictions, making decisions based on my reports is at you'r own risk!
