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Japan 225

Yen index: The yen could see prolonged weaknessThe weekly index chart, with monthly MTPC overlay shows a vivid picture, that of a constantly weak yen. We are right at a longterm downtrend mode resistance from the historical high back in 2007*, and the last test of it resulted in the start of a very volatile monthly downtrend. We have this mode resistance as the first obstacle for new highs, as well as the low volume resistance up ahead, in the 135+ region. The profile balance point for this uptrend sits higher up, at 148.774, so I wouldn't discount the possibility of further Yen weakness in the coming months, backed by a still running monthly uptrend signal with time to spare (price target already exceeded before starting this very volatile and sideways corrective phase) and a very clear and steep weekly uptrend that has time left as well, but with price targets already met ahead of time. Just keep watch of this chart as you navigate the Yen pair waters. See comments for the bigger picture view of the whole move from the 2007 high. My current Yen vehicle is a potentially very large weekly uptrend in the Euro-yen cross. See related ideas for my forecast and trade setup. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
NIKKEI: UPDATEIn my previous idea I located the key levels on chart, and was biased towards a short. Recently, it started being obvious that the Yen was weakening, so I decided to go long GBPJPY. I still think the dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, possibly until June 2016, nothing has changed, but the Nikkei is implying that it will rally asap. Tim West's recent publication clearly depicts how the stage was set up for a rally, so I'll limit myself to expand the analysis with a few more details of interest that are worth noting. I include the ichimoku indicator on chart, because it's a very highly regarded tool among japanese traders, and many pro traders as well. It's good to contrast our own analysis with other tools from time to time. The weekly time at mode downtrend target has been exceeded, and now, time has expired. This implies the Nikkei has a low probability of retesting the mode from where the downtrend launched, at the 20385 mark, in 9 weeks or less. The daily chart is giving confirmation of a bullish time at mode trend signal today, which aims for the top of the kumo resistance. Interestingly enough, the lagging line, which is part of the ichimoku suite, sits above price, 26 bars back from today. This implies that it's possible for price to cross the cloud resistance and meet with the mode above, or beyond. Good luck if going long, keep in mind rgmov is in a downtrend in the daily, so I'd still would look into fading the target hit, or the resistances above, or even short under the highest daily low after overbought spikes. If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
6
Nikkei: Fade overbought ralliesNikkei is consolidating forming a bell curve, if you look at the profile shape from the low. The weekly downtrend that fired in August has now expired, which means there's a possibility that price goes up to retest the downtrend mode. I see this as improbable and would suggest looking for shorts once the targets on chart are hit, or the low volume resistance zones tested. The last daily leg implies further upside, but rgmov is at abysmal levels and forms new lows, so, it's possible that this move fails and it heads down from here. If that were the case, next week we will have a new mode, lower, so we could look for time at mode trend signals, which would more or less imply the Nikkei will travel down to test previous support levels. Once we have clarity here, we will know wether to consider Yen longs or not. For the time being, I'd only try short term swing trades in the yen pairs. Regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPJPY: Potential breakout trade / Time at Mode signalThe analysis of multiple timeframes in GBPJPY leads me to believe that we might see a bullish breakout emerge from this juncture. If we base on the relative strength readings, obtained from my ratio analysis, pairing gold vs each currency, we'd be biased towards a bullish trade setup here. Although rgmov doesn't signal a new 44 bar high in any timeframe, the monthly does have a recent uptrend, which turned into a lengthy sideways move, and price is emerging right from support, so this opportunity should be considered. Check out my previous Nikkei chart, and the gbp/xau, an jpy/xau ones, as well as Tim West's own analysis on the Nikkei for more information. The 3 targets on chart are potential reversal zones as well, the low volatility enviroment we're in makes me think we have a very big move coming! I take this trade as a hedge against my longer term shorts in usdjpy and my eurusd and usdchf longs. It's good to keep a balanced portfolio when opening and managing multiple positions, without being incoherent with our own analysis and methodology. I'll post uptades and send broadcasts with more information, related charts and associated add on trades to my followers at collective2. Check out my profile for details. Currently offering a 15 day free trial. Kind regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
EURJPY: Potential position trade setting upWe have an interesting scenario here, with the possibility of Nikkei topping, and the Euro on the verge of being devaluated by the ECB's monetary policy. The setup offers a great risk/reward ratio, so I wouldn't hesitate to take it. Target is the AB=CD completion from the top to the current sideways range, but it will probably offer plenty of shorter term opportunities to scale in and book partial profits along the way. Good luck!
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY and Nikkei: Potential reversalWe have a nice short opportunity in these charts. It's more evident in the case of USDJPY which offers a clear target and invalidation level. In the case of the Nikkei, it's at the level of a long term resistance, and showing a painful advance, not something I'd consider bullish in my view, and to make things worse, the highest low has been taken out by a down bar. We can enter short positions with confidence, keeping a reasonable stop, based on 3 ATR(11) in the case of the Nikkei, and slightly above my purple invalidation level in the case of USDJPY. Target would be the horizontal line below initially, where I'd suggest covering half of the position and moving the stop loss to break even in case it continues to fall.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
Nikkei: UpdateCorrection started, as expected. We now have a bearish target in sight: 19184 by April 27th. This level and date will be a potential retracement area, or reversal, depending on how price action evolves. Considering the scale of the uptrend, I don't think this correction will end there, but we'll see. Better expand as we move forward. I am short GBPJPY, and monitoring SPX, EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY for important clues about this large development. Will post updates here.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
FXY: How long can the Yen carry trade last?There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month. It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet. The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon. I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date, regarding the Euro and the Yen at least, but it can last at least one more month. Looking at usdjpy closely, and also monitoring the S&P500, TLT, Dax, Nikkei and gold. These are very interesting times to be a trader! Will update with more insights and potential trade setups as they come. Good luck, Ivan.
AMEX:FXY
by IvanLabrie
5
Nikkei: Tight stop long tradeThe Nikkei is offering a nice tight entry on the long side. Risk 1/2 position on this one, entry is market now, stop at 20462, tp at 26720. Will trail the stop on a daily basis. The quarterly chart shows a valid uptrend in place, with time left until July 2016. We are also above the biggest time spent at price level in the whole chart's history, with the next significant resistance at 21244 and the next at 26720. If we manage to survive in this long and cross the first level, it might continue up and hit the second one, making this a very attractive entry. The horizontal ray on the daily chart is a vixfix 75% retrace level, caused by smart money buying into a strong decline, one of the key levels demonstrated by Tim West in his publications. (he uses Vix though, for S&P500) It's possible that we see a crash this year though, since this is so overextended, specially if S&P500 crashes like I expect. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NIKKEI is approaching the reversal point in a couple of daysS&P reversed in May, and re-confirmed its reversal this week. Nikkei is approaching the reversal point just now. There is just one tiny subwave 5 left, in which the market may try to set a new high or match the previous one. After that we are going to observe a quick (1-2 months) retracement of the ending diagonal, travelling to 16500-17000. I think the first trading day of the month, 1st July, as usual will be a good starting point for a sell-off.
FX:JPN225Short
by AndyM
Nikkei: Short term short setupThe Nikkei is correcting the last upward leg in the daily chart after signaling a 3 bar daily uptrend, time expires today, and the 4h chart paints a clearly bearish picture. The minimal target is on chart, and to enter the trade I'd look into selling a range expansion down bar out of the mode at 20785. You would have to use my indicator and wait for a bar to turn red to market sell, or sell now if your strategy allows it. Mine doesn't, as price sits in a triangle right now, with conflicting shorter term trends colliding, I'd advice against jumping the gun. The linear regression is another cue, a breakout and 1 bar close without touching the mode is the go signal. Good luck! Ivan. PS: you can also use this chart as the opposite, a cue to go long Nikkei and/or USDJPY after confirming the selloff (which would take price into my buy area in the case of the Yen)
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY: Longer term perspective is still bullishI've been watching this chart closely, and I think we might see a great buy setup in the near short term. Eyeing the area between 121.43 and 122.34, with invalidation for this signal below 118.968, potential upside is 137.94 in 6 months or less. We don't get significant trends in FX very often, and this is one of them. I'll be monitoring the Yen to enter a longer term position in it, since I consider the risk/reward and probabilities to be on the bullish side here. The fundamental odds favor this position as well, I included The Working Trader's idea in the related ideas field since I consider his input valuable. It's good when both technicals and fundamentals agree, just have to be patient for the right setup to pop. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Top spottedSimple setup, initiate a short when the support is breached. We have a very strong decline after completing what looks like an expanding ending diagonal triangle in the 4h/daily charts. If price moves below the support level outlined in the chart, it will accelerate down, probably moving 430+ pips to the downside. As a bonus, crude oil seems to be moving up, while Nikkei falls, effectively boosting this trade, correlation wise. Will update with my entry and scale ins. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
16