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Japan 225

NIKKEI is approaching the reversal point in a couple of daysS&P reversed in May, and re-confirmed its reversal this week. Nikkei is approaching the reversal point just now. There is just one tiny subwave 5 left, in which the market may try to set a new high or match the previous one. After that we are going to observe a quick (1-2 months) retracement of the ending diagonal, travelling to 16500-17000. I think the first trading day of the month, 1st July, as usual will be a good starting point for a sell-off.
FX:JPN225Short
by AndyM
Nikkei: Short term short setupThe Nikkei is correcting the last upward leg in the daily chart after signaling a 3 bar daily uptrend, time expires today, and the 4h chart paints a clearly bearish picture. The minimal target is on chart, and to enter the trade I'd look into selling a range expansion down bar out of the mode at 20785. You would have to use my indicator and wait for a bar to turn red to market sell, or sell now if your strategy allows it. Mine doesn't, as price sits in a triangle right now, with conflicting shorter term trends colliding, I'd advice against jumping the gun. The linear regression is another cue, a breakout and 1 bar close without touching the mode is the go signal. Good luck! Ivan. PS: you can also use this chart as the opposite, a cue to go long Nikkei and/or USDJPY after confirming the selloff (which would take price into my buy area in the case of the Yen)
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
21
USDJPY: Longer term perspective is still bullishI've been watching this chart closely, and I think we might see a great buy setup in the near short term. Eyeing the area between 121.43 and 122.34, with invalidation for this signal below 118.968, potential upside is 137.94 in 6 months or less. We don't get significant trends in FX very often, and this is one of them. I'll be monitoring the Yen to enter a longer term position in it, since I consider the risk/reward and probabilities to be on the bullish side here. The fundamental odds favor this position as well, I included The Working Trader's idea in the related ideas field since I consider his input valuable. It's good when both technicals and fundamentals agree, just have to be patient for the right setup to pop. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Top spottedSimple setup, initiate a short when the support is breached. We have a very strong decline after completing what looks like an expanding ending diagonal triangle in the 4h/daily charts. If price moves below the support level outlined in the chart, it will accelerate down, probably moving 430+ pips to the downside. As a bonus, crude oil seems to be moving up, while Nikkei falls, effectively boosting this trade, correlation wise. Will update with my entry and scale ins. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
16
USDJPY Head & ShoulderFundamentals: - BOJ has not express additional stimulus despite pressure from other central banks - A weaker USD due to economic data Technically: - Yen and Nikkei at 2015 high so pullback is healthy - 4 hour is showing potential H&S formation - RSI has rooms to fall - From the breakout level, Fib of 38.2% is a healthy and viable target If Head & Shoulder play out this is the target which coincide with the minor support and 38.2% retracement at 122.45 - 122.70 levels. Entry@ 123.70 Stop@ 124.20 (-50) Target@ 122.70 (100) RR of 1:2 After the pullback-usdyen is still a bullish market-consider switch to long
Short
by sugardaddyFED
NIKKEI 225 SHORT TERM ELLIOTTWAVE UPDATE 5/28/2015 Decline to 19033 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in the form of a double correction (W)-(X)-(Y)-)-(X)-(Z) where wave (W) ended at 19843, wave (X) ended at 19468, wave (Y) ended at 20563, second wave (X) ended at 20318, and wave (Z) is currently in progress towards 20900. Wave (Z) rally from 20318 ended the first leg at 20658 as wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback deally towards 20402 - 20491 before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. As far as 20318 pivot holds in wave ((x)) pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20658 per Elliott Wave hedging idea. --------------------------------- Twitter: cmellon1976 Website: elliottwave-forecast.com Free 14 days trial: elliottwave-forecast.com
FX:JPN225Long
by EWForecast
Potential Cypher in Nikkei 225Just looking at this stock index, you can see it is a one way street at the moment. However, one way streets are often dangerous and taking the opposing way can be rewarding sometimes. Here is a potential Cypher pattern. At the moment the price appears to be at a double top and I think many traders will chose this spot as a potential place to short. However, because the market is so strong I feel it will push up towards the upper trendline, testing the strength of these shorts. Many will stop out no doubt, then the market could fall back off this trendline to around 20231 completing the Cypher to give a potential long opportunity. Could short around 20650 and reverse position at 20231 at the line of resistance and Cypher completion point, then target the potential 20650 highs again. Remember markets do what they do, not what traders predict. This is just an idea. Please like this if you would like more posts like this.
FX:JPN225
by TomP
CADJPY: Neutral, probably pending upside to be seenCADJPY has been in a consolidation for some time, before launching a fierce uptrend, in what I consider to be a wave C impulse in a larger flat. I considered the move complete, but looking at how it behaved after topping, I suspect that the uptrend isn't complete yet. We can observe a series of smaller timeframe trends briefly putting the bears and the bulls in command, typical triangle behavior. Also, the daily and weekly rgmov remain signaling an uptrend, while price stopped falling when meeting with the lowest high trendline I drew from the lows, and we have a series of highs and lows where we don't observe a move past them, effectively suggesting coiling price action, yet to explode. The explosion will most likely be up if this is indeed a wave 4 triangle, but we'll see. For the time being, I refrain to trade this pair until it shows directional commitment on either side. Tread carefully! Cheers, Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
7
Nikkei 225 Short Term Elliottwave Update 5/22/2015 Decline to 19033 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in wave W in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 19843 and wave ((x)) ended at 19468. In our previous Nikkei 225 update (see related ideas below), we said wave ((y)) is in progress towards 20276 – 20472, and some profit taking should be seen from this area and the Index to pullback 3 waves lower in wave X to correct the rally from 19054. Since our last update, current preferred Elliottwave view suggests wave ((y)) of W has ended at 20323, and wave X pullback is in progress towards the ideal target of 19514 – 19663 (50 – 61.8 back). Wave X pullback is unfolding in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 19996 – 20107, then it should bounce in wave ((x)) before turning lower to resume wave X pullback towards 19514 – 197663. We do not like selling the proposed wave X pullback. As far as 19033 pivot holds in wave X pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20350 per Elliott Wave hedging technique. --------------------------------- Follow this index & others at Twitter: cmellon1976 Website: elliottwave-forecast.com
FX:JPN225
by EWForecast
EURJPY: BOJ fueled short pt. 2We have interesting news releases coming out tonight, and thoughout tomorrow's session. The technical chart shows an uptrend that is showing signs of exhaustion after correcting the strong decline from the December high from March 16 onwards. The advance was halted when price reached an area of weekly low volume resistance, where the market was extremely one sided. These areas can reject price and stop the bulls' advance very reliably. Now the market remains motionless after a strong selloff, which confirmed an hourly downtrend signal, while the 4h chart shows a volume buildup on the lows, increasing selling pressure after the sharp leg down completion started a sideways correction. I expect to see a strong move coming out of this juncture, fueled by the news releases. 23:00 US USD FOMC Member Williams speech 1 FRIDAY, MAY 22 02:00 CN CNY CB Leading Economic Index (Apr) 1 0.2 n/a JP JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement 3 03:00 JP JPY BoJ Press Conference 3 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1) 3 0.3% 0.3% 06:00 DE EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q1) 2 1.1% 06:45 FR EUR Business Climate (May) 1 101 101 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Expectations (May) 2 103.1 103.5 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Current Assessment (May) 2 113.6 113.9 08:00 DE EUR IFO - Business Climate (May) 2 108.3 108.6 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.4% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.8% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar) 1 -0.9% 08:00 IT EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 2% 08:00 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Mar) 1 0.1% 09:00 IT EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Mar) 1 0.2% -0.2% n/a GR EUR Current Account (YoY) (Mar) 1 €-0.929B 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a (Apr) 1 240.79 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.1% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 1 236.71 236.12 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) 2 0.2% 0.2% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr) 3 -0.1% -0.1% 12:30 US USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) 3 1.7% 1.8% 13:30 JP JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech 3 13:30 EMU EUR ECB President Draghi's Speech 3 19:00 AR ARS Trade Balance (MoM) (Apr) 1 Previous ideas:
Short
by IvanLabrie
26
Nikkei225: Potential TCT into A Cypher (Some Random Analysis)The Forex markets have been kicking my tail this week so I decided to take a look at some other markets simply to clear my mind. Conducting technical analysis is actually a stress reliever to me, when I get do it on something that I don't trade. A few of my clients have expressed that they trade many of the indices, which lead me to the Nikkei. Initially the first thing that popped out to me was the potential bearish Cypher pattern which met up with an outstanding amount of Fibonacci confluence after putting on a few extensions, retracements and inversions. I also had an abcd move projected last night, but couldn't say for sure since the "C" leg was still in progress. As I took another look this morning i see that the C leg has retraced to a level deep enough to provide a rather good risk to reward for a trader looking to hop on long...not because of the potential Cypher completion, rather because of the overall shift in the trend that we just saw after achieving a HHHC.
FX:JPN225Long
by Akil_Stokes
3
Nikkei: Bearish confluenceThere's a potential 8 bar downtrend about to confirm here. If we see a swift move down from this level, we can expect the Nikkei to travel down, and fast. Technically, you can enter shorts now, with a tight stop, but the 8 bar signal isn't confirmed yet. Target on chart, for now an estimation, but possible. Wait for confirmation if trading it. Might offer good clues for the yen traders too. Thanks to Tim West for bringing it back to my attention yesterday. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
NIKKEI Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis 5.4.2015Short term Elliott Wave view suggests pullback to 19348 completed wave ((X)). From this level, rally in wave (a) is taking the form of a 5 waves diagonal when wave i ended at 19570, wave ii ended at 19405, wave iii ended at 19775, wave iv ended at 19620, and wave v of (a) is in progress towards 19851 – 19906 equal leg area. After wave (a) is complete, index is expected to pullback in wave (b) and can test 50 – 61.8 fib retracement of wave (a) before the rally resumes. If wave (a) ends at 19851 equal leg, then wave (b) pullback can test 19541 – 19600 (50 – 61.8 fib retracement). We don’t like selling in the proposed wave (b) pullback and expect wave (b) dip to find buyers as far as pivot at the 19348 low remains intact. --------------------------------- Twitter: cmellon1976 Website: elliottwave-forecast.com
FX:JPN225Long
by EWForecast
GBPJPY: Extended fifth wave advance and time at mode short setupWe can observe a clear five wave advance from the lows, with wave 5 being the largest, almost reaching 1.618 of the distance from point 0 to wave 3 high, which is the typical distance wave 5 travels. These extended fifth waves often produce a very sharp and steep retracement that swiftly moves price down to wave 5's second wave, or even wave 4 of the whole advance. Rgmov is showing clear divergence, which is a strong bearish signal, while we also observe a time at mode uptrend target expired, and one more larger timeframe target about to expire at the open on Sunday. I'll place a short fine tuning the entry from the 1h chart on Sunday. Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
USDJPY: price at the daily mode - bar by bar analysisUSDJPY offers an attractive short trade, as long as it stays under the daily mode level at 119.635. I'm looking to short under the previous hourly low for the time being, with a very tight stop to maximize returns. We can place a reverse position above the resistance line, in case it reverses and continues to range. It's a good way to hedge against unexpected volatility. Will update with an entry. Update: Daily roadmap: If this level doesn't hold now, I suspect we might see some bullish continuation, exploring the upper end of the range. Said and done...Now, waiting to figure out what to do. Either buy a correction, or sell OS.
Short
by IvanLabrie
18
CADJPY: UpdateSeems like this pair will offer a perfect short opportunity anytime now. As depicted in the chart, we can see that price reached a critical resistance level after completing an AB=CD pattern from the low to the sideways correction start and end. I'll post if I find a good entry opportunity with good risk/reward ratio asap. If aggressive, you can short now under the low and target the horizontal red dashed line for taking partial profits, but I prefer to wait for a cleaner entry, fine tuning from the 4h and 1h charts. Keep in mind that Gov. Poloz is speaking tomorrow, in 8hs from now, so the market might wait for that event to increase momentum and turn one directional. Good luck! Ivan. Update: Seems like the perfect short entry is near: Taking a small position with a tight stop once time expires.
Short
by IvanLabrie
20
China cuts reserve requirement ratio #Nikkei #Japan #stocks Last Friday we saw a sell off in the market. The News telling us that's it because new trading regulations in China and a possible Grexit (Greece could leave the euro zone). Today China's reaction to the sell off is to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 100 bp (1 percent). It is the second reduction in two months. China has taken this step to boost growth (fight slowing growth) by reducing the amount of cash banks must hold. This simply means more fuel to invest in stock market. I buy Nikkei at 19330
FX:JPN225Long
by piptank
GBPJPY update: targetsAn addendum to my previous 'Waiting for the perfect short' chart. This chart describes the different projection techniques that I used to determine targets and potential retracement zones in this pair. I'm short from 177.569, with a break even stop and will scale in every chance I get. This corrections will be easily foreseeable using time at mode in lower timeframes, and I'll update with them in due time. I expect to hold this trade open until the weekly signal expires at least.
Short
by IvanLabrie
29
Possible Long Nikkei at 19250 Target 20000This chart show us a pretty steady upward trend. At the moment we are in a kind of consolidation/pullback situation. I think we will test the 20000 mark next days. But a pullback to 19000 is also possible. But then I'm thinking of a possible double top scenario. Three more fundamentals which support my projections are: Japan's trade deficit declined, exports rose by 2.4 pct and imports dropped by 3.6 pct Japanese Inflation Rate drops further in February 2015 to 2.2 percent from 2.4 Unemployment is at 3.5 percent in February, slightly down from 3.6 percent
FX:JPN225Long
by piptank
GBPJPY: Waiting for the perfect shortAs the title describes, I'll publish a suggested short entry once my setup confirms. For the time being observe the price action and how the selling is outweighing the buying on each swing. This is inherently bearish, and to make things worse for the bulls, Tim West's proprietary indicator RgMov is plotting new lows and a strong downtrend on the daily chart, ahead of price which is currently ranging. The weekly chart shows intense coiling, which will eventually lead to an explosive move to the down side. I'll update the chart with entry, exit and stop loss values once it confirms. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
32
THE BIG BUBBLE_QE EFFECTS FROM BEGINNING_NOVEMBRE 2008The Big Bubble ... as every time this time is different ... it's true this time the outbreak was unprecedented... QE effects from the beginning - start end 2008 S&P(orange) +186% - USD/JPY +22% USD/EUR +15% Nikkei (blue Mountain) +165% JPY/USD -22% FTSE100(blue points) +80% GBP/EUR +21% GBPUSD+3% DAX(green points) +201% EUR/USD -15% MIB Italy( brown points) +46% EUR/USD -15% .. also in financial bubbles economic gaps are maintained . Strong correlation between S & P and DAX and the moment when the first QE American had exhausted its strength ( with the devaluation of the dollar vs yen ) , new push came from QE Japanese ABE ( with svlutazione the yen vs the dollar) . Stronger seems the effect of QE UK as a steep and steady growing index tied to a currency like the pound which has always maintained its value both against the dollar and the euro . The Europe is Germany and dax..il benefits from the propagation effects on other markets like Italy ... is ever fail to put and push the economy and to hold this system after inflating a bubble like this...
FX:JPN225Short
by guado77