GBPJPY: Waiting for the perfect shortAs the title describes, I'll publish a suggested short entry once my setup confirms.
For the time being observe the price action and how the selling is outweighing the buying on each swing.
This is inherently bearish, and to make things worse for the bulls, Tim West's proprietary indicator RgMov is plotting new lows and a strong downtrend on the daily chart, ahead of price which is currently ranging. The weekly chart shows intense coiling, which will eventually lead to an explosive move to the down side.
I'll update the chart with entry, exit and stop loss values once it confirms.
Cheers,
Ivan.
Japan 225
THE BIG BUBBLE_QE EFFECTS FROM BEGINNING_NOVEMBRE 2008The Big Bubble ... as every time this time is different ... it's true this time the outbreak was unprecedented...
QE effects from the beginning - start end 2008
S&P(orange) +186% - USD/JPY +22% USD/EUR +15%
Nikkei (blue Mountain) +165% JPY/USD -22%
FTSE100(blue points) +80% GBP/EUR +21% GBPUSD+3%
DAX(green points) +201% EUR/USD -15%
MIB Italy( brown points) +46% EUR/USD -15%
.. also in financial bubbles economic gaps are maintained . Strong correlation between S & P and DAX and the moment when the first QE American had exhausted its strength ( with the devaluation of the dollar vs yen ) , new push came from QE Japanese ABE ( with svlutazione the yen vs the dollar) . Stronger seems the effect of QE UK as a steep and steady growing index tied to a currency like the pound which has always maintained its value both against the dollar and the euro . The Europe is Germany and dax..il benefits from the propagation effects on other markets like Italy ... is ever fail to put and push the economy and to hold this system after inflating a bubble like this...
Short Nikkei : Bearish Crab : Gap AheadShort Nikkei with bearish crab completing in between 19139 to 19756 (also a gap ) and a trendline resistance at 19139.
Short Nikkei and long XAUUSD
Nikkei getting back on track againNikkei seems to get back in line again after a short breakout on the downside meeting the EMA62.
In order to continue it's trend it needs to stay between the two grey lines which were formed in the beginning of January.
I am long with a first target at 19000.
SL just below the EMA62
Feedback/Ideas?
Looking to Short the Nikkei 225 IndexNikkei 225
- Clear Bearish Divergence (Price making higher highs while RSI is making lower highs).
- I am interested in Shorting the Index if it breaks 17093 ( the most recent swing low).
- On a break of the lows and the trendline, I will wait for a pull back to re-test the level again then issue my short position to 16425 area.
- The trend remains bullish. This is a counter trend trade.
A fall in Japan Equities will yield a fall in USDJPY GBPJPY EURJPY as it will signify Yen strength. So look for similar opportunities in the Yen Pairs.
SP500 below 1.000 within April 2016....Looking at the tops of 2000, and 2007, it is interesting to see where we are 06. Nov 2014 in price and time related to these two former tops.
Calculating the time from the Sept. 2000 to the October 2007 top, and then extend the 85 bars from 2007 to November 2014. Markets can be due for longer correction. Adding the pitchfork shows the index streched on price.
The downmove in 2000 took the SP500 - 48% in 668 days. The downmove in 2007 took the SP500 - 56% in 518 days. If we calculated the shortest move in price and time, markets can end up below 1.000 within March of 2016. Comments?
Short Nikkei 225, D, CME (NYI): Pullback DueThe Nikkei 225, D (NYI) is due for a pullback with all major indicators already exiting overbought condition.
Last week's advance is beginning to show signs of a reversal as investors move to take profits. Short Nikkei 225, D, (NYI). Stop loss at 17570, take profit at 16120.
JAPAN ANNOUNCES BIG JUMP IN ASSET BUYINGJapanese authorities surprised everyone on Friday by increasing their already aggressive bond purchases (QE) by a third. In addition, it will expand those purchases to include stocks and real estate investments. The Japanese pension fund also announced that it will increase its allocation to domestic and foreign stocks. That gave a huge boost to global stocks. The most dramatic effect was seen in Japan. Chart 1 shows the Japanese yen tumbling to the lowest level in seven years. At the same time, the Nikkei Index surged nearly 5% to the highest level in seven years. We've pointed out many times before that the falling yen since the end of 2012 has been the main driving force behind Japanese stock gains. That was certainly the case again this week. The monthly bars in Chart 2 show the Nikkei also climbing above a major resistance line drawn over its 1996, 2000, 2007 highs. That upside breakout suggests that Japanese stocks may finally be emerging from their role as one of the world's weakest stock markets. Since the start of 2013, the Nikkei has risen 57% versus a 28% gain in the Vanguard All World Stock Index (and a 41% gain in the S&P 500). Japan is trying to emerge from nearly two decades of deflation. The latest Japanese inflation figure of 1% is only half of the target rate of 2%. It still has a ways to go.
Nikkei at f5 resistance / big channel retestCurrently Nikkei is at resistance of a f5 and a level in which was previously retested in line chart.
It was also halted at the channel trendline.
A successful test at h1 will be meaningful but unfortunately I do not have access to h1 charts for futures.
However this can be translated to other JPY crosses and I also see similar distribution patterns on these crosses.
$NIKKEI - The Ending Diagonal - Abenomics Part II.'On last Thursday, Kuroda met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and assured him that he would do more if needed, especially if the BOJ is still failing to meet its 2 percent inflation target.
"Should conditions emerge where the target becomes difficult to meet, we are ready to make without hesitation adjustments to policy, additional easing or whatever," Kuroda told reporters after the meeting. '
Yen weakens, the Nikkei growing. Land of the Rising Sun not yet said the last word.
The next BOJ meeting ist on Oct. 6-7. Until then, the market will live in hope.
www.cnbc.com
www.elliottwave.com
NIKKEI 225 4h Diagram Technical Analysis Training The NIKKEI 225 Japan Index (JPN225) 4h Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The JPN225 index has made a reaction from EMA 200 towards to Kijun Sen and then it declined towards again to EMA 200, finding support at Tenkan Sen. The index is into the KUMO.
So the first think in mind is that JPN225 is into the KUMO without a clear trend.. MACD & RSI are both trying marginally bullish.
We have no special candlestick pattern.
There is no special diagram pattern.
So the only think we have is the resistance line. Long above it and of course above Kijun Sen, stop loss or short under the EMA 200 or KUMO (the KUMO has twisted).
Nikkei 225 Index Daily (17.08.2014) Tribute to EMA(50,100,200))This week we will see the EMA (50,100,200) and MACD,RSI for various diagrams.
The Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The JPN225 index has made a correction decline last two weeks and it reacted exactly on EMA 100/200 last week. There is a sense of bull market because EMA 200 support EMA 100 (first circle) and we had a crossed of EMA50/EMA100 (second circle).
MACD is ready to give a bull sign on Monday getting itself above the zero line. RSI > 50.
The fib has a 1.618 next target at 15934. Long for it. Stop loss under the EMA 50 or 15179.
Nikkei 225's Potential Bearish Configuration - Is WorrisomeThis chart and my conclusion based on my analysis might be very perplexing to many Fundamental Analysts and to Japan's Prime Minster Abe as net results of his 3 prong attack fails to produce desired results.
Many, bullish fund managers will be mystified as was the case in 1992 when the initial decline of all time high was only seen as just a setback and a buying opportunity.
I say it is worrisome as Nikkei Index has close correlation both positive and negative to many financial markets including many developed Equity Markets of Western World.
Whilst at present it seems now that nothing can go wrong from rising equities worldwide, Nikkei Index does not seem to support the view.
Watch the Youtube video entitled " Where To From Here - for the financial markets?" that goes into extensive explanation of my reasoning and discover wider implication. Video link : youtu.be
It is long but sure you will find value in the material.