Nikkei 225's Potential Bearish Configuration - Is WorrisomeThis chart and my conclusion based on my analysis might be very perplexing to many Fundamental Analysts and to Japan's Prime Minster Abe as net results of his 3 prong attack fails to produce desired results.
Many, bullish fund managers will be mystified as was the case in 1992 when the initial decline of all time high was only seen as just a setback and a buying opportunity.
I say it is worrisome as Nikkei Index has close correlation both positive and negative to many financial markets including many developed Equity Markets of Western World.
Whilst at present it seems now that nothing can go wrong from rising equities worldwide, Nikkei Index does not seem to support the view.
Watch the Youtube video entitled " Where To From Here - for the financial markets?" that goes into extensive explanation of my reasoning and discover wider implication. Video link : youtu.be
It is long but sure you will find value in the material.
Japan 225
NIKKEI 225 4H (03.08.2014) Technical Analysis Training The NIKKEI 225 Japan Index (JPN225) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The JPN225 index has made a sharply decline towards to KUMO cloud last week under the resistance line. The weekly diagram is bullish and monthly diagram is turning bullish.
So the first think in mind is that JPN225 finds support from KUMO. MACD & RSI are bearish.
We have no special candlestick pattern except that index closes at lows.
There is no special pattern. The fib shows the target levels.
Stay aside until it get above the resistance line and then long for 15513 first. Otherwise short under KUMO and EMA 200 (4h).
NIKKEI 225 4H (28.07.2014) Technical Analysis Training EUSessionThe NIKKEI 225 Japan Index (JPN225) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The JPN225 index has made an uptrend movement above the KUMO cloud last week above the Tenkan Sen (light green line) and Kijun Sen (blue line) too. The weekly diagram is bullish and monthly diagram is turning bullish.
So the first think in mind is that JPN225 has a promise setup for more uptrend as it has breached the resistance line of the top of the ascending triangle. MACD & RSI are bullish.
We have no special candlestick pattern.
There is no special pattern except of the the previous ascending triangle. The fib now starts a new wave so we cannot design a measurement but you can add 15460+456 = 15916 as the first next target.
Long JPN225 with stop loss under the resistance line.
Nikkei in long runAfter a long run , there is a pull back since Jan 2014.
the down trend is broken and it is a good opportunity to go long, with a nice continuation pattern.
The entry point can be one of the Fibo retracement levels, and can be done in 2- 3 stages.
The First Target (Weekly) has accomplished for Nikkei 225I had mention to my weekly tech analysis (link related idea below) that the first target for JPN225 was 15054. Now the index has to get over the Kijun Sen of the weekly chart but....
In the daily diagram that I see Chikun Span gets over the KUMO already (look at first light blue circle) and the SPAN A gets over SPAN B (Second light blue circle.)
If you take in thought that USDJPY is bullish then these together gives a bullish force to TOKYO.
NIKKEI 225 Weekly (22/2014) Chart Technical AnalysisThe NIKKEI 225 (JPN225) weekly chart shows the following signs:
Exactly from 6/2013 NIKKEI had been in two channels with different trends. Now it seems to change the trend one more time for upwards. Technically RSI>50 and MACD will be bullish on Monday. Last week the Index with a long candle got over the Tenkan Sen. Next target it seems to be the Kijun Sen at 15054. As you can see in diagram the KUMO offered a strong support to the Index.
I am bullish for NIKKEI except if it returns into the KUMO cloud with a new support line.
Nikkei 225 in Critical Point Daily (Weekly is more possitive)The Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225) is in critical point just on the top o KUMO, with long signals from MACD and RSI. The weekly chart of JPN225 is more positive because is over the KUMO and it tries to reach the Kijun Sen.
The JPN225 will force the bullish movement If it get over the KUMO the next days. Otherwise some more consolidations is in favor in the cloud. If it gets over the cloud it will brake the downtrend channel and that would be another strong bullish indicator.
Nikkei strong bounce from support, gap up Here I think it is ready for move higher vs gap pivot point at 14, 359.
First target could be descending trend line then swing high at 15, 164
Fundamental Bears Before Technical Bulls | $USD $JPY #BOJ #ForexFriends,
As the stock market is turning increasingly wary and talk of a market crash abound, other risk aversion behaviors have transpired through Forex pairs. Here, in particular, USDJPY fell significantly, keeping lower supports exposed.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING DATA:
Predictive analysis and forecasting system remains bearish in the short-tern, but bullish to neutral in the longer-term, suggesting a nearing of support. Defined ranges are:
1 - 101.198, high-probability hit
2 - 101.010, moderate probability hit
3 - 100.816, low-probability hit.
PROP PATTERN FORECAST DATA:
A separate proprietary pattern has defined support at 100.944, thus concentrating a PRZ in the lower end of the predictive analysis and forecast.
FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
A lower drift in the pair without BOJ intervention is foreseeable for the time being, as Kuroda has opted for a watchful stance with no rate change for the time being. The historical tax hike impact on consumer behavior will require time to absorb the data, which is expected to be bearish. However, fundamental opinion is that a Japanese intervention in rate or bond purchase action won't happen until a critical mass of fundamental data justify it - Here is a good read on this from Mr. Ashraf Laidi:
- www.cityindex.co.uk
Weighed against a slow improvement in US economic data, the net outcome is expected to be supportive of a rally.
OVERALL:
For the time being, my predictive analysis/forecasting system calls for further downside, defined at a shallow distance from Friday's close. Fundamental data lends support to a rallying over the next several weeks, based on a relative improvement in the US employment, as well as a probable intervention of sort from BOJ, as the historical tax hike is likely to further deteriorate the consumer side, while the Japanese economy might turn to export facilitation through an easing intervention that would turn its currency value more palatable to foreign consumers.
One might also consider a prior discussion on reflexive support of the USD, as China's Yuan continues to fall, pressing other export-dependent competitors to adjust their currencies downwards as well. But this currency down-push can only occur by reflexively up-pulling the Dollar lever. Or is there another liquid reserve currency available?
- Answer is: No.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
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Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
