MAJOR INDICES in USD / WORLD GDPFormula: (Major Indices/USDxxx)/World GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Indices: USA, Germany, Japan, UK, China. (all converted to USD)
After the 2008-2009 bottom, USA performed much better than other countries. So, what's next? We can expect other countries to perform better even a bit from now on. But that dosen't mean that the stock markets will rise. It's a bit confusing, because there are high differences between them, as seen. If we focus on USA, we can say that the stock market is expensive. But others don't tell the same. We will see...
Japan 225
Europe&Japan to perform better than USA from now on, 2-JapanComparision of "NIKKEI in USD dollars" to "SPX".
I am publishing the same for all (please see my other analysis): Germany, UK, France, Italy, Japan...
I ignore all the fundamentals and just make technical analysis . Fall of EUR&GBP&JPY and their stock market's negative divergence compared to USA (SPX) is about to end, I believe.
Important: This doesn't mean that the equities&indices are going to rise from now on. My analysis only says: Europe&Japan will perform better than USA. Just because they are very cheap.
NIkkei 225 10 year ProfileBOJ intervened for the first time since 1998, to prop up it's the YEN, with some speculation they likely sold a lot of their massive reserves of long end (10-30 year) US T Bills to buy back the Yen. This hypothesis appears supported by the lack of short end yield movement at 4-5a, EST at time of BOJ intervention announcement late last week. Of note in this chart are:
- Almost a decade long volume profile aligned with vPOC at 382 retrace.
- Structure of current price action seemingly mirroring the covid structure as represented by the fractal in light blue above.
SPXSPX Look how interesting. After this crisis that we are experiencing with the corona virus, several opportunities have arisen to buy assets over sold and giving a great asymmetry that is ridiculous. But, everything is not flowers, the government had to print money like never before, causing the dollar to depreciate and inflaming the consumer price index. Making it so that later (nowadays) I had to raise the interest rate. And that reflects everything on the chart. On the chart, we see a bullish continuation pattern. But for the moment he is under. It will probably only break this line when the US shows interest rate easing, causing investors to start exiting their bonds that are bad at the end and going back to equities, when this happens again, the bulls will boom and will start to dominate the market again.
Relative to this pattern on the chart it is called the descending megaphone. It tends to widen a lot when the market turns pessimistic. An example of this is the Nikkei index. It started to widen in the 1991's and only came out in 2013. And if we analyze the past, we see the pattern repeating itself again today, but not in a smaller size.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - NIKKEI at resistanceTrade Idea: Selling NIKKEI
Reasoning: Rallied into resistance
Entry Level: 28268
Take Profit Level: 27774
Stop Loss: 28368
Risk/Reward: 4.96:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Nikkei 225 Breakout - where to next? Weaker than expected growth in Japan led to markets expecting policy by the BOJ to be kept loose. This recent breakout now puts the index in positive territory YTD and it is now at a 7-month high. The question remains whether this is a breakout to be faded or has legs to move higher? The RSI seems to be rolling over from overbought territory. This could potentially setup a retest of the 28.364k former resistance level. The 50-day SMA also looks to be eyeing a golden cross with the 200-day SMA. The pattern that has emerged a flat sided ascending triangle is typically bullish.
NIKKEI 225 CFD BEARISH PATTERNJapan Economy Watchers Current Index was announced yesterday, below its forecast and also below its neutral line of 50, at 43.8, which can be used as a marker for downturn of the country's economy.
On a technical level Japan 225 CFD broke the support of the rising wedge pattern, also signaling a potential bearish move on the instrument. Both MACD and RSI indicators confirm the pattern, and in both the fast moving average is increasing the gap with the slow moving average, indicated best by the MACD histogram. This might be read as an indicator for big movement.
If the pattern gets confirmed the price might test its previous low at 27840. If the opposite scenario occurs, the instrument might test the previous support of the rising wedge at 28270.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NIKKEI 225 BUYCONFIRMATIONS
- I believe price is going to fall for the next 12-14 hours however reverse of the ascending redline located on my fib at 27962.
- I never want to say this is a "prime example" because things can change. But this is a pretty regular chat pattern that is forming a "rising wedge". This is a chart pattern I look for very often.
- Price has continued to respect my ascending trend line.
- Price is simply in an uptrend.
- 50 MA is right under price.
- Risk/Reward is 3:1
- Waiting for a shooting star or inverted hammer candlestick.
Nikkei 225 August 5th, 2022Nikkei has been rallying in the last few days, and broke a trend line. Everyone is wondering is it a reversal move or just a bull trap.
This is remain to see but for now I see pretty strong base to go higher. Saying that RSI is quite high, not oversold yet but compering to US indices JPN225 is less like to be severely oversold. Very likely the pullback is expected.
MACD looked like it was going to cross the signal line but not really, we might have one/two more bullish/consolidation days.
I'm going short but please do your own analysis - trading is risky
Nikkei filling a gapI think the Japanese and Asian markets will anticipate what will happen this week.
After a false breakout of a diagonal resistance marked in blue, there is a high chance of filling the gap that was left open, reaching at least as far as the correction of 0.618.
Then we will have a better definition.
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling NikkeiTrade Idea: Selling Nikkei
Reasoning: Targeting 78.6% Fibonacci, price breaking below support
Entry Level: 26708
Take Profit Level: 25893
Stop Loss: 26871
Risk Reward Ratio 5:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Nikkei 225 Potential Bullish ContinuationPreference:
On the H4, with price bouncing off the ichimoku cloud and moving in an ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 26880 in line with the pullback support and 50% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 28410 in line with the multiple swing high and 100% fibonacci projection .
Alternative Scenario:
Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 26000 in line with the pullback support .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Zigzag Rally Approaching TargetShort term Elliott Wave view in Nikkei suggests the decline from 3/29/2022 peak is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. A Zigzag is a corrective structure labelled as ABC with 5-3-5 subdivision. Down from 3/29/2022 peak, wave A ended at 25555 and rally in wave B ended at 28401. Wave C lower is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave B, wave (i) ended at 26195 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 26960. Index then resumes lower in wave (iii) towards 25615, wave (iv) ended at 26235 and final wave (v) ended at 25525. This completed wave ((i)) of C. Wave ((ii)) of C is now in progress to correct cycle from 6/9/2022 high before the decline resumes.
Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) is unfolding as a zigzag structure in lesser degree. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 26555 and dips in wave (b) ended at 26005. Wave (c) higher is in progress to complete wave ((ii)) before the decline resumes. Potential target for wave ((ii)) is 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave (a) which comes at 27040 – 27675 area. Index should then resume lower or pullback in 3 waves at least. Near term, as far as pivot at 28401 high remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Why markets will fall this week (JPN225 analysis) Last week we saw a rally in all the stocks.
Looking at the indexes, we are seeing all of them being overbought on H4, h1, m30 and m15.
We are seeing the weakness in H1 and M30 and M15 on Nikkei.
We will sell with 500 pip stop loss and target close to 2000.
Current situation vs 1980s, 2000sIntroduction
This is pretty clear that we are witnessing bubbles on different markets every around 20 years period of time. These bubbles obviously are driven by the unreasonable greed of the investors. Market is always unreasonable but we can see some similarities between all bubbles.
Japan 80's real estate and stock market
Since Japan had monetary crisis at the beginning of 80's the government decided to impose more dovish policy with very low interest rates and stimulous which ended up in big stock market and real estate bubble. Not to mention that at the peak of in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.
The end was when Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 2.5% to 6%. Investors found it as sign of worse times and bubble was ended. Nikkei 225 never got again the same value as in the late 80's.
NASDAQ 2000's Dotcom
Capital moved from Japan to NASDAQ where was found new point of investment. Newly developed internet created the base for greed for investors. Index crashed by 78% after raising interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5%.
Bitcoin 2020's
The most recent one. I know there are many people who wish Bitcoin go to 500k or more. Even many "predicted" that during current cycle peak will be at around 250-300k, however ATH was around 67k. In my opinion even 67k was very overpriced.
At this moment Bitcoin is not really usable, it was claimed to be "new gold" but gold already proved its usability for thousands years and Bitcoin is fairly new thing, maybe for the next generations it will be more usable but we need years until new business will be created on cryptocurrency and will be developed ways to use it, so far people don't use it widely for everyday payments, if it's ever intended to use for paymens. Similarly to the Dotcom bubble, internet at that time existed but wasn't very usable, later companies like Google and Amazon developed ways for commercial and everyday use. The state legislation must also follow these innovations, including crypto and NFT, otherwise companies won't ever want to enter this business if courts don't recognize violations related to this kind of business.
In my opinion Bitcoin may never reach again 67k or it will take many years. Maybe after few years we will call 2020's as "Bitcoin bubble" powered by very low interest rates and stimulous from pandemic and ended similar like in Japan by raising rates and making fear among investors.
NIKKEI 7th JUNE 2022Asia Pacific stock markets were mostly bullish on Monday (June 6th) morning as China eased COVID-19 restrictions, giving hope for the global economic recovery. Also, the upbeat US jobs report opens the door for the US Federal Reserve to remain decisive on inflation.
Nikkei has breakout the resistance area. After several months inside the falling wedge area. So technically the price will be higher in the future.
Jamie Gun2head - Selling JPXJPYTrade Idea: Selling JPXJPY
Reasoning: Breaking trendlines, looking for an extended selloff
Entry Level: 27753
Take Profit Level: 27029
Stop Loss: 27923
Risk/Reward: 4.26:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Nikkei 225 Potential Bullish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud and within the ascending trend channel, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from our entry at 27760 in line with the overlap swing high to our take profit at 28410 in line with the 127.20% fibonacci expansion at the swing high. Alternatively, price may reverse and break the support level at our entry and drop to our stop loss at 27130 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection .
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.