Tensions in the Middle East.(Geopolitical and Technical updates)As it was expected there was a deep fall in the market due to Israel Vs Iran tensions. US is also a direct or indirect party to the situation and if there is further escalation other global powers will mostly get involved. Due to the this situation market opened gap down at 24473. What we saw post that is Indian market recovered smartly from that situation to close at 24718. That is a huge 245 point recovery to end the day. This is why colour of the candles throughout the day (As this is an hourly chart are green despite we ended in red. (That is a classic Technical lesson for understanding candle sticks analytics). The closing is above the father line support of 24674 which is a good sign as this will be our support (Strong support for Monday.) I have spent more than 15 years in the Middle East and happen to know a little bit out of my personal experience, having interacted with a lot of locals. Thus I am trying to answer a few questions that might be coming in the minds of may investors including myself.
The Question now are we out of danger?
Answer: Not yet.
Question 2: Why we are not out of danger?
Ans: The geo-political situation is very tense. The scale of Israeli attack was massive and there are clear and present chances of Iran counter attack which has already begun. Israel will respond again and Trump has already said that the next attacks by Israel will be even more fierce. No Iran is no palestine and there would be many countries that might support Iran. Specially China has already hinted support. Russia another ally is busy with Ukraine but you never know.
Question 3: How it goes for the other Middle Eastern countries?
Ans: There are lot of countries with US and Western bases on them. If Iran attacks them there are chances of other Western countries getting into the act too. In addition to some Middle Eastern countries getting into the act for the purpose of self defence. Thus over the weekend the things can get either very tense.
Question 4: What happens to India and Indian markets?
Ans: Today Indian markets have shown a lot of resilience. Global meltdown can affect us to for sure. But as we are neutral (As of now as it seems). The damage to our market hopefully will be minimal. Moreover recovery will be swift once the situation becomes less tense.
Question 5: What should investors do?
Ans: Long term investors can hold on to their long term positions in blue chip stocks. Keep stop losses and trailing stop losses in place for the mid-cap and small cap stocks. If some stop losses are hit or trailing stop losses are hit, you can always buy again as market is not going anywhere. The dip that we might potentially see can be an opportunity for long term investors for bottom fishing again and recalibrating their portfolios. (You can use the current situation to realign your portfolio for buying the trending stocks which have giving good results this quarter or have been giving good results since last few quarters.) Get rid of the stocks that have been dragging your portfolio down. Market has provided another opportunity for a fresh start.
Things you can do:
1) Gold and Silver are always a great option when it comes to uncertain times.
2) Do not give a knee jerk reaction in selling off your winners.
3) Watch the global updates and keep stop losses and trailing stop losses accordingly.
4) Re-calibrate your portfolio
5) If you are sitting on cash use the dip for investing in stocks with long term perspective.
The support for Nifty Remain at: 24674 (Father line support), 24640 (Mid-channel support), 24492 (Trend line support), 24382, 24208 and finally 24077 (Channel Bottom Support). a closing below 24077 will enable and empower bears to Pull Nifty further down.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 24752, 24818, 24906 (Mother line Resistance), 25043, 25138 and finally 25223 (Channel top Resistnace). Above 25223 Bulls will potentially take over the market.
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Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. The political commentary is based on personal views and analysis. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
