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Nifty-intraday

Trade Log NIFTY July 24In my yesterday’s post (link below) I said Considering the recent upmove of 5 days, I think tomorrow NIFTY is likely to consolidate further in the range 11200-10950. I won't go long immediately if 11200 is broken in the early morning or open. Also for any intraday short position, NIFTY has to break 11170. Consolidation day today. NIFTY was in the range 11050-11250 My Trades today From the initial sharp move below 11170, I initiated a short position, which I squared off for loss near opening range high. My observations for the day NIFTY closed -0.19% down BANK NIFTY closed 1.83% down VIX dropped 0.43% Advance Decline ratio very poor 7 to 43 Option traders creating positions for range 11000-11200 P/E ratio of NIFTY is 29.35 as of today Today Reliance contributed 72 points of the entire gain. Index has been dragged by reliance. BANK NIFTY severely under performed. I’ll do a detailed post over the weekend for next week’s view Happy weekend! July 23 Post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 23In my yesterdays post (link below), I had said I do not have strong bias on either side. Also it is an expiry day. I’ll watch the first few minutes of action. If there is bearish continuation, then intraday short may be a good idea. Some consolidation structure, possible retest towards 11200 is possible in next 1-2 sessions. Though it looked like a bullish day, because of the context of yesterday, I still consider it as a consolidation day. Retest of 11200 is also done. ==================================================================================================================== My Trades today I could not trade intraday today because of internet issues at my place. My notes for the day NIFTY closed at 10215, 0.74% higher BANK NIFTY closed 0.88% higher VIX dropped around 1% Advance Decline ratio is 37 to 12. For broader market it is 1024 to 822 Option open interest shows 11000-11500 expiry range. My view for tomorrow Considering the recent upmove of 5 days, I think tomorrow NIFTY is likely to consolidate further in the range 11200-10950. I won't go long immediately if 11200 is broken in the early morning or open. Also for any intraday short position, NIFTY has to break 11170. ==================================================================================================================== July 22 Trade Log
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 22In my yesterday’s post (Link Below) I had said 1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 11200-11270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal. 2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss. 3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll be difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 11200. Overall, this expectation was correct. I also entered a positional short for August. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today. I covered my short taken yesterday. But I did not trade intraday. My observations for the day NIFTY was weak with close -0.27%. BANKNIFTY closed 0.44% up. INDIA VIX closed 1.87% higher. The Advance Decline ratio is 17 to 33, on the weaker side. Option data suggesting the expected range for tomorrow’s expiry in 11000 - 11200. Overall, it was a day of bears. Gap up was sold very quickly in the first few minutes, then retracement and then again fall. But last 30 minutes pullback was strong enough to create doubt about tomorrow’s session My view for tomorrow I do not have strong bias on either side. Also it is an expiry day. I’ll watch the first few minutes of action. If there is bearish continuation, then intraday short may be a good idea. Some consolidation structure, possible retest towards 11200 is possible in next 1-2 sessions. My trade log for July 21
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY July 21My July 20 Trade Log I had said (Link below) Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides. Not much is changed. NIFTY is near the possible resistance zone of 10200-10270. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today Intraday, I sold the CALL option when opening low broke. That trade was trapped. That was a signal for selling PUT as well. Both positions squared off near the end of the day. I am also holding positional short, which is a risky trade. My observations for today NIFTY closed 1.27% up. Gap up was sustained. BANK NIFTY closed 2% up VIX down 1.15% Advance decline ratio 32 to 18. NIFTY is in it’s 6th week of upside. Also it is near the level which has been measured as the target of the move. That is the first swing from March lows to April High. My view for tomorrow and coming week 1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 10200-10270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal. 2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss. 3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 10200.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY July 20My view for this week My Trades As planned, I did a reversal trade around 11000. I was not quick enough to square it off on the first deep and made losses on the trade. My observations for the day NIFTY did not get rejected at 11000. It closed above 11000 by gaining 1.11% BANK NIFTY gained 1.62%. But It formed a doji candle + Gap opening. VIX increased 2.30%. This shows some sense of uncertainty amongst the market participants. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 19. Not very supportive of the gains. My view for tomorrow Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 15In my yesterday’s post, I had said I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top. I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820 I am still waiting for this confirmation. It was not a pause / continuation day as I expected. It was a roller coaster ride. Because of Reliance results, I got out of the trend and avoided trading intra day. My trades today As NIFTY crossed the resistance area, I sold puts and later covered near the target zone. My observations for today NIFTY had a very volatile day finally closed 0.10% up. BANKNIFTY closed -0.24%. VIX dropped 1.3% Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 24 which is neutral. Open Interest data showing 10800 as firm resistance and 10500-10600 band as support. FII and DII data is negative. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Overall, looking at structure, it is confirmed now, that balance has changed in favour of sellers. The question to be answered is if this is some sort of a correction or start of fresh downward. I’ll watch Thursday, Friday and Monday candles to make my opinion the same. In case of fresh downtrend, at least a downward gap, close around or below 10430-10400 is required. View for tomorrow Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560. The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level. I’ll start with assumption of 10560-10700 range and play from there.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 10In my yesterdays post I had said Even though the chart looks good, I have a bearish bias for tomorrow and Monday. This is mostly because the whipsaw we saw yesterday. If NIFTY manages to close above the new high by Monday, I’ll be wrong again. I’ll not short, but mostly observe if it crosses 10850. I’ll short NIFTY below 10730. Nothing changes in my view and I carry forward my view to Monday. My trades I did not trade today, as none of the levels I was watching were clearly broken. Observations for the day NIFTY sideways for the day, ultimately closed 0.42% down. BANK NIFTY down 2.22%. VIX mildly up 0.12% Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 36, in line with negative closing. Option data tilted for mild bearish bias. Overall, NIFTY did not do badly because of Reliance. BANK NIFTY trend is near bearish, NIFTY sideways for near term. NIFTY’s consolidation can be an intermediate topping pattern or consolidation. It can be confirmed only when NIFTY closes below 10560 levels. I’ll do a detailed post over the weekend on my next week’s view. Have a great weekend ahead! ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My July 9 Post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 7Review of my view from yesterday’s post Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000. If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out. Possibility 1 of consolidation. So overall, the setup looks good for a strong up move tomorrow. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today In the initial few 15 min candles, I assumed consolidation day. I entered short on the break of support and squared it off at gap support. Observations for the day NIFTY closed near high of the day with 0.33% gains. BANK NIFTY completed some lag with NIFTY which will add fuel to NIFTY now. It closed +1.93%. VIX fell to 25.10 Open Interest shows a 10500-11000 range for the week. My view for tomorrow’s session 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. The conflict I expressed in my weekly post is now resolved, and the chart is telling firm bullish sentiment. My Weekly review post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
3
Trade Log NIFTY July 6In sync with my weekly view posted *************** Possibilities next week 1) BANK NIFTY starts performing in coming two sessions very strongly and NIFTY rushes to 10800-10900 levels. VIX further drops around 22-23 levels. 2) NIFTY fizzles out the rally and drops back or consolidates. Now for trading action, I do not think this is a good enough reading. Hence I wait. I wait patiently till I get some confirmation 1. If I see BANK NIFTY >> NIFTY and VIX dropping, I participate using intra day positions mostly buying options. I’ll avoid it if there are opening gaps. *************** Now possibility 1 played out. And I did action 1. My trades today 1. I bought a 10700 CALL option which was squared off at the first sign of weakness. My observations for the day NIFTY gained 1.47% ~ 5th straight day of higher high daily. BANK NIFTY gained 1.59%. But did not cross earlier high. VIX dropped to 25 Advance Decline ratio is 40 to 10. Option data showing room market participants expect on upside. My view for tomorrow Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000. If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 2In my yesterday's post I had said 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow, strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today. My view about strong moves, break of 10440 with strong candle all happened. My trades today 1. I sold 10400 PUT on breakout of the range and covered it near 10580 resistance. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY strong up day breaking and closing above previous high. It closed 1.17% up. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.11%. 3. VIX down -5.73%. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 36 to 14. My view for tomorrow 1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move. 2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish. 3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 1Review of June 30 Trade Log 1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240. 2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420. I was wrong to assume the breakout is on downside. NIFTY broke out of the range on upside. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today I was expecting a trending day today. I sold 10400 PUT on opening range break. I covered it end of day for profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My observations today 1. NIFTY gained 1.24%. Technically it is a breakout after 4 days of consolidation. 2. BANKNIFTY gained 2.84%. 3. VIX dropped 3.43% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 23. This is neutral. 5. Option data showing 10300 - 10500 range. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
NIFTY weekly view Jun 29 Jul 3My monthly View My last week's review My reading last week was I am sure about (~80%) 1. NIFTY to touch above 10300. 2. NIFTY is likely to face strong resistance in the 10300-10600 region. 3. The top end of the range I estimate is 10600-10700 for this week. I somewhat assume (~60%) 4. Less and less volatile as the week progresses. 5. Another break below or touch of 10000 region possible. 6. Trapping both side traders, without clean swing. Example - gaping up but not sustaining gaps, gap down and recover fast etc. But this week I think it'll be less volatile. Overall I was correct in assuming points 1,2,3,4,6. I was not correct on 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For this week, I observe the following points about the market action. 1. NIFTY formed bearish engulfing. This engulfing has no overlap region in recent couple of months. It also formed at a trend line connecting previous two tops. 2. This action makes me revise the structure to 'rising wedge' pattern. It is a bearish pattern. But I see couple of problems.This pattern in general works well when prices are below 50% of retracement of the down swing. This is not the case. NIFTY is between 50% and 61.8%. Other thing I see is this pattern needs declining interest from market participants, which I don't see very clearly. The breakdown from this pattern can be sharp with targets of sub 9500 levels. 3. BANKNIFTY is also top of the range and has not clearly broken out. 4. Recent top is supported by VIX. VIX is around same level as earlier top of 10346. 5. Volatility is relatively reducing, It can go on before we see some strong move on either side. 6. Trend wise, monthly - Down , weekly - Up (indecisive) , daily - Sideways. 7. If it is really a bear market, which is my assumption from monthly time frame, then NIFTY is less likely to have positive July. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My view for the week. 1. I am certainly not seeing a strong up move coming in this week. I think NIFTY will see down move or consolidation in tight range. 2. 10500 will be top end of the range for the week. 3. I'll create shorts below 10300 with stop loss of 10450. The other view that NIFTY will form some trading range in this region 10500 - 9900 which likely to create a base for the next move. This I am not sure at this point. I need to see if NIFTY takes repeated supports or makes some kind of consolidation formation like a rectangle or traingle. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Some Trade Ideas 1. Sell CALL credit spread 10500/10600 2. Sell 10000/9900 + 10500 Strangle or condor. 3. Monthly 10200 PUT buy / Weekly lower prices PUT sell. (This I'll execute if NIFTY is below 10300.) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a good trading week ahead.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 26In my trade review post I had said, 1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday. 2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation. 3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390. For point 1, it is now looking like corrective action of previous swing. I was wrong on bearish bias, but I do not change it yet as 10390 level is not crossed today. My trades today I did not trade today. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 0.91% up. It made higher high and higher low. 2. BANK NIFTY 0.40% up. For yesterday and today BANKNIFTY lagged NIFTY. 3. INDIA VIX 3.34% down. 4. Advance Decline ratio 28 to 21. 5. Open Interest data mildly bearish. 10500 is the resistance level traders are betting on. From price action today. 1. NIFTY is still in consolidation. For now, it may try and go towards 10500, I am not sure how far it'll travel. 2. Till NIFTY breaks the new range 10180 - 10550, I assume this as sideways market. I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next week's view. Have a great weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY June 25I'll review what I anticipated in my post yesterday 1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm. 2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly. 3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430 I did not make clear statement, but overall action looks consolidation as trend dictated. My trades today I did not trade today. Mostly because of many trading moves we had so far this month. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY moved in the relatively narrow range this expiry. It closed -0.16% lower. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.37% higher. 3. VIX is below 30. It gained 0.51% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 16 to 34. That is bad. 5. Option chain again showing bias towards consolidation in range of 10000-10500. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday. 2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation. 3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390. Overall, I see today and next 2-3 sessions as key price action sessions. On weekly chart, I observe clear contraction of price range. This may lead to breakout/ breakdown soon. And usually this time break (which will likely to be on downside) has higher chances of leading to good swing move./b]
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 24In my yesterday's update, I had said 1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days. 2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry. 3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600. Sometimes, NIFTY is kind and follows exactly the patterns observed. Today NIFTY reversed from resistance levels 10540. So this anticipation was correct. My Trades 1. So I was brave today and sold next expiry 10600 CALL. I squared it for the profit near end of day. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed in red -1.58% down. NIFTY also formed bearish engulfing candle. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -3.76% down. BANKNIFTY formed even more bearish candle, engulfing two days worth gains. 3. VIX rose 0.81% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 10 to 39. 4. Option activity tilted on bearish side, support is expected around 10000. My view for next session 1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm. 2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly. 3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430 June 23 Trade Log
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 23In my post yesterday (link below), I had said, 1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280. 2. Even it goes little below but stays above 10060, the view remains intact. 3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500. 4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone. 5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now. The consolidation did not play out for long and deep enough, but point 3 worked perfectly. My trades today 1. When NIFTY broke above opening range, I sold 10400 PUT which I covered near end of day. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed near high of the day and finished 1.55% higher. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 2.56% higher. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.68% 4. Advance Decline ratio 46 to 4. Thats very good. 5. Option covering is not seen so far at 10500 CALL. From the action today, my view is 1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days. 2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry. 3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600. My weekly view My post yesterday
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 18In my June 17 post , I had said 1. This is more looking like consolidation of upswing which happened from 8800. Since context swing is up, we have to assume the breakout is more likely on upside. 2. Again 10000 is the level, break of which can start this up move. This can happen tomorrow or Friday. 3. I plan to trade with positive bias and avoid creating short positions as long as NIFTY is trading above 9810-9830 levels. This time, my hunch played out picture perfect. The break of 10000, happened today and NIFTY closed above 10080. My trades 1. Clean trending trade today. I bought 9900 CALL next expiry on break of 9940. This I squared off for profit by end of day today. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY closed 2.13% higher. NIFTY broke out of master candle high today. It also engulfed two previous candle bodies. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 3.74% up. Very similar bullish candle. 3. VIX down 5.70% 4. Advance Decline ratio is good. Marketwide, it is 1396 to 448. NIFTY 40 to 10. This is a good sign. 5. Option data clearly shows the positive bias of market players. 9500 is being strong support. 6. FII and DII data mildly positive. My view for tomorrow. 1. Considering today's bullish day, there are two most probable possibilities. One, consolidation around 10100-10150. The other being the one more positive day tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow is Friday, so we can have strong move. Since current trend is positive, the move can be assumed on the upside. I wont change my view till NIFTY sustains above 9850, which is the base of the up move. Only thing to be watch out is since today was a weekly expiry, a confirmation is required by closing above today's high. Closing above 10170, will be a good bullish confirmation of the trend. My June 17 post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 17In my yesterdays post, I had said 1) Considering the volatile moves for last 3 sessions, I think we may have relatively calm market for next two sessions. 2) I maintain my bias , consolidation with little bullishness. 3) The current situation is NIFTY has formed support around 9600-9700 region. And it has multiple resistances from 10000-10300. The move from 10000-10300 will be choppy. Review : NIFTY had relatively lower swings than previous two sessions. Neutral candle, consolidation. My Trades I did not take any trades, mainly because I was not clear about the levels I want to trade and near 9700 - 1000 is a narrow zone, where volatile moves, up down happening which may be difficult to catch. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY formed indecision candle inside the large move of Friday. NIFTY lost 0.33%. 2. BANKNIFTY lost 0.47%. 3. VIX rose 1.18% 4. Advance Decline ratio for NIFTY is 22 to 28. 5. Tomorrow is expiry day. 9500 to 10000 is the range what NIFTY option traders are expecting. 10000, 10200 are resistance. My View for tomorrow, June 17, 2020. 1. This is more looking like consolidation of upswing which happened from 8800. Since context swing is up, we have to assume the breakout is more likely on upside. 2. Again 10000 is the level, break of which can start this up move. This can happen tomorrow or Friday. 3. I plan to trade with positive bias and avoid creating short positions as long as NIFTY is trading above 9810-9830 levels. I'll change my bias when NIFTY closes below 9810. Completely bearish below 9600. Reference: My yesteradys post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 15I had posted my weekly view yesterday 1. The touch of 9730 has happened today. 2. NIFTY has closed 1st time below 9824-9843, an important level which I watch closely. My trades today 1. Once again simple trade worked. I sold 9800 CALL when opening range was broken out and then covered it on first sign of weakness. 2. As mentioned in weekly update, I have also created 9300/9400 and 9500/9600 Credit spreads. Market Action today 1. NIFTY closed 1.6% lower. It was 6th day of bearish action. 2. BANK NIFTY fell 3.59%. 3. VIX rose 5.69%. High volatility during the day. 4. Market wide advance decline ratio is neutral, in NIFTY 8 advances for 42 Declines. 5. 9500 to 10000 is the range traders are expecting. 10200-10500 is likely resistance zone. My readings of today's market action 1. I still think it is consolidation day. I do not have much bearish bias for tomorrow. 2. I think NIFTY is likely to touch the other end of range ~ 10000. 3. Depending on how it reacts near that level will decide the next course of action. 4. There was some congestion in the small range of 9788 - 9870. This is likely to be some low volume action, also occurred near end of the day. 5. 12th June candle is important ~ candle with large body ~ surprise candle. Close above 9972, bullish and close below 9545 is bearish. till then its consolidation inside the big candle.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 12I posted this view yesterday, June 11 1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind. 2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200. 3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels. So for today, who could have imagined the kind of day NIFTY had today? It was volatile roller coaster ride from 9560 to 9995. Anyone who thinks any human being can predict the market, should periodically check the price action today. It has the potential to make even the best oracle feel humble. Overall, NIFTY did not close below 9843, so I do not have doubts about my view. It is confirmed that now the ride is towards the other extreme of the range, that is 10200-10300 zone. This is confirmed, and mostly Monday will confirm to the same view. My trades today: 1. First let me say, that I was able to manage my credit spread and got out of the same without any loss. 2. Then when opening range was broken out I bought 9700 CALL and sold it for profit near end of the day. Buying CALL is little different from my usual trading ways, but there were two strong reasons form that 1) Today was Friday, so gain by theta is not very important. 2) CALL enabled me to limit downside risk, in case NIFTY had continued on gap down. My observations for the day: 1. NIFTY formed large candle with gain of 0.72% 2. BANK NIFTY closed 0.63% 3. INDIA VIX swung from 10% to 3%. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 29 to 20. 5. From option data, 9600-9700 is a strong support. Resistance at 10000 level. I am not going to take this action as bullish or bearish, but I am going to assume range first of 9800 - 10300. When it breaks out / down, next leg of trade will be clear. Currently there is higher probability of breaking above 10300 looks more probable. For more, please go through my last weeks view and monthly view. My view posted on June 07 for the week gone by My monthly view posted start of this month I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next weeks preview.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1