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NIFTY Market Insights: Anticipating significant shiftsDear Traders, I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical details: I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22) II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24) III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance) Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance. The wave patterns depicted in the diagram, signal completion of the trend. Additional observations: Time series Forecasting: Top - Top - Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270) = 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3) = 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270) = 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360) Bottom – Top - Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180) = 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90) = 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle) = 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180) Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust. Historical Repetition: The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month. Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds. A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios: The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios. Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons. Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality. One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction. Fed and Markets: Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises. If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term. Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus. IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!! Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC) Strategy: 1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended. 2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders. Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
After making a new high Nifty finds temporary bottom. There was an immense bout of profit booking specially in the mid and small cap stocks decimation happened in PSU stocks. Many of these stocks are near important support levels now. Many seem to have taken support today. Nifty itself took support today near 25376. Looks like this was a strong support below which is another important mother line support of 25322. To know more about Mother, Father and Small Child theory read my book available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. Below 25322 the important support levels will be 25278, 25134 and 25008. However as support of 25376 has been taken for now things look little rosy to start the day with resistance levels will be 25485, 25533, 25611 and channel top now is at 25712.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Flag and Pole Breakout is not taking of as on date. Since Flag and pole breakout there are chances that even though 50 bps rate cut has been announced by US FED there are chances of Nifty trying to retest some supports. Today Nifty tested 50 hours EMA Mother line. But there is a chance that it may test the support again. If Mother line 25282 does not support again like today there is a chance of Nifty testing further supports which are near 25203, 25135 or even 25027. Resistances on the upper side will be near 25407, 25485, 25533 and 25607. As of now shadow of the candle is negative or red in colour. But if 50 EMA gives support the things can turn positive again. Expect some volatility in the coming days.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious as there might be chances of profit booking at higher levels. The Fibonacci levels drawn based on previous peaks indicate the next resistance between 25449 and 25493. If 25493 is crossed and we get a closing above it there is a possibility of a rally upto 25600 or 25698 levels. This will be a resistance which will be very tough to conquer for now. The support for nifty in case the Flag and pole formation break out fails will be at 25333 and 25270. Mother line support of 50 hours EMA will be at 25193 which is also the mid channel support. Making it a strong dual support.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 16-Sep-24 to 20-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 16-Sep-24 to 20-Sep-24 Nifty closed at 25356 ( Last week 24855 ) and touched low & high of 24471-25429 ( all time high) Market touched new high last week , and nearing the Short term Resistance at 25545. RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (63% and 87% respectively). MACD level and signal are at same level. Nifty 25356 Short term (Short term neutral, need to cross key resistance 25545) Nifty short term resistance 25545 as shown in chart. Support at 24480 (Fib Support) & 24650 (Trend line support and recent low). Medium Term next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance)- If it crosses 25800, Medium Term is UP. if it moves above decisively next target is 26250. Medium term Support - 24000 Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800 Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election result scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Mutual Funds SIP shall be invested as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period as the valuation is high. Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart. Nifty bank 51938 (Last week 50582) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900 Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks. Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank. Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as CAMS, UTI AMC , HDFC AMC, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis. Nifty IT 43394 (Last week 42234) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by karthikss
Things look rosy but keep an eye on 2 major global events. Nifty was in consolidation mode on Friday after making a new high on thursday. It seems to have found a temporary support at 25292. If this support is broken there are further supports at 25133, 24910, 24753 and finally Mother line support of 24602. If 24602 is broken bear will be seen in an active mode. however shadow of the candle as of now seems to be neutral to positive. The resistances for Nifty on the upper side are at 25433 and 25537. Channel top seems to be near 25653 and trend top or the medium term target seems to be at 26335. However Nifty will take some time, correction and consolidation before we reach there in all probability. All eyes from across the globe will be on US Fed action on 18th September. If there is no fed rate cut or only 25bps rate cut announced. Bears can attack the market from all sides, so keep a track of this most important global event next week. This is a make or break global event. Also we should be watchful of events around Russia Vs Ukraine as there was a news that US can give a green signal to long range precision made in US missiles to be used by Ukraine. If this happens it can escalate the matter into a massive global event with negative impact on global markets. Although everything seems rosy as of now. Keep a keen eye on these to major events next week or in the coming days. To guard your profit keep trailing stop losses. To protect your capital use stop loss.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Fresh Bullish Breakout in Nifty after consolidation. Nifty consolidated for a while tested new bottom near 24753 Nifty has today taken down all the resistances and made a new all time high of 25433. Nifty could not hold on to 25.4K+ levels today so the immediate resistance for Nifty will be today's high that is 25433. The next resistance is near 24537. Channel top seems to be near 25653. The door are now open for 26K+ long term target. As of now the long term target as per the trend line seems to be near 26355 with supports at 25293, 24910 and recent bottom formed near 24753. Below this level Mother line support will be near 24571 below which the trend can change bearish.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty getting trapped between two trend lines forming a pennant Nifty is getting trapped between Two trend lines and will look to consolidate further till the trend line is broken on either side. In addition to the trend lines, Nifty is also trapped between Mother and Father line of 50 and 200 Hours EMA. Very interestingly poised Nifty with negative shadow of the candle. Immediate resistances are near 24970, 25027, 25130 and 25192. Above 25192 Bulls can start to breathe easy. Supports for Nifty are at 24885 are 24821. 24821 is the most important support as it is just below the trend line and also 200 Hours EMA that is the Father line. If father line is broken Nifty can further fall to 24751 or even 24527.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Mid-Channel Resistance stopped Nifty growth todayAfter remaining positive and buoyant the full day Mid-channel resistance came to force and stopped Nifty from further growth today, dragging it down from day's high of 25130. The closing is good and above Mother line (50 days EMA). To know more about Mother, father and small child theory and Happy Candles numbers that we assign to stocks read my book The Happy Candles way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version. The supports and resistances for Nifty now are as under: Supports for Nifty remain at: 24034 (Mother Line support), 25005, 24832, 24807 and finally 24527. Resistances for Nifty remain at: 25130, 25192, 25273 and 25333. Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Strong comeback by Nifty indicating temporary bottom formation.Nifty today came back strongly after taking support from Father line of 200 EMA and trendline. The support of Father line will be confirmed if we get a positive and strong closing tomorrow. The supports as of now for Nifty remain at 24790 and 24753 (Today's low and trend line support). If by chance FED will not announce a big rate cut, Nifty may again go support searching. If 24753 is broken the next support will be only at channel bottom near 24527. Shadow of the candles as of now remains positive and resistances for the Nifty is in the zone between 25005 and 25033 (Mother line 50 Hour's EMA). If we get a closing above 25033 the next resistances for Nifty will be at 25192, 25273 and 25333. See how Father line support saved Nifty today. To know about Father, Mother and the small child theory you can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 09-Sep-24 to 13-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 09-Sep-24 to 13-Sep-24 Nifty closed at 24855 ( Last week 25235 ) and touched low & high of 24807-25335 ( all time high) Market touched new high last week and went down on last fri, Market broke the Ist Support at 25000 and went down last week and currently it is in rangebound. RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (52% and 33% respectively). MACD level crossed and went down below signal. Nifty 24855 Short term (Short term neutral, need to cross key resistance 25545) Nifty short term resistance 25545 as shown in chart. Support at 24480 (Fib Support) & 24650 (Trend line support and recent low). Medium Term 25235, next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance). if it moves above decisively next target is 26250. Medium term Support - 24000 Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800 Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. This is the best period to start SIP MF when the valuation is high. Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart. Nifty bank 50582 (Last week 51117) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900 Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks. Newly added stocks to buy are CAMS, UTI AMC & HDFC AMC and removed tanla platform from the list as the profit is stagnated, to await till next quarter ( Q2) Results. Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank. Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis. Nifty IT 42234 (Last week 42760) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
NSE:NIFTY
by karthikss
Major weakness in Nifty with across the board selling.Nifty today looked very weak as it was not able to sustain many important support levels. Relative strength index of Nifty is also looking that it might fall further. The candle looks like an Olympic diver which has jumped from the podium. You can never say never but shadow of the candle as of now looks very negative and dark red in colour. Resistance for Nifty will be at 24914, 25076 and 25333. Support for Nifty seem to be at 24702, 24483 (Major Mother Line 50 days EMA support). If this support is broken Bears can have a field day or a field week with no stopping. In such a scenario they can drag Nifty further down to 24242, 24016 or even 23673. The worst case scenario as of now looks like 23174 and 22759. 22759 will be Father line support. Nifty last took father line support only on 4th june 2024 when it looked as if NDA will not be able to form a Government and there were deep cuts. So it looks improbable that Nifty will fall till father line but you never say never as US and other global markets are in panic mode. Long term investors can be / should be ready with some liquidity as they might get a good chance for bottom fishing. Long term and ultra long term outlook for Indian markets still looks very positive.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty delicately placed near Mother line & important trendline.Nifty which closed at 25145 is delicately placed just above mother line 50 EMA and an important trend line near 25143. Another important support will be today's low that is 25127. Below this level there can be further weakness which can take Nifty to 25083, 25005 and 24875. If major support of 24875 is broken the final support will be near 24776. If 24776 is broken Bears can take over the market. Resistances on the upper side are at 25173, 25208, 25234, 25269. Above 25269 Bulls can take control of the market at take the market to 25304 or even 25337. Right now shadow of the candle is still little negative.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY Next buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.We had another success on the Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) on our last buy signal (August 09, see chart below), as we bought after a confirmed rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the index being currently very close to our 25500 Target: The index continues to follow the a cyclical pattern and this is how we made this previous successful prediction on the 1D MA50. As you can see it was the very same rebound on January 24 2024 (1D MA50 and bottom of the Megaphone) that rose by +6.64% before turning sideways again into a larger (dashed) Megaphone. We are about to enter this fractal symmetry and potentially initiate a new Megaphone. The former one gave this first buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 again, then on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and finally near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An additional buy signal was when the 1D RSI hit its Support Zone. As a result we are closing the previous buy now on profit and will wait for the 1D MA50 contact to buy again and target the top of the Megaphone (Higher Highs trend-line) at 25700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NSE:NIFTY
by TradingShot
Multiple trendlines converging and diverging consolidating NiftyThere are multiple global and local factors playing together line the multiple trendlines shown in the graph converging and diverging. These forces are not allowing Nifty to fall much and recover if it falls. At the same time they are not allowing Nifty to fly away towards 25.5K and above. The support levels for Nifty are at 25133 (Mother Line Support), 25083, 25005 and 24875 (Bottom of the current channel). Resistances for Nifty will be at 25207, 25251, 25304 and finally 25337.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Closing below trendline today shows some weakness in the rallyAlthough the closing on Nifty today was flat, as you can see from the chart closing was below a trendline which shows weakness. This weakness can lead to little more consolidation or can send Nifty searching for a substantial support. Resistance on the upper side seem to be at 25304 and 25337. Supports for Nifty are at 25241, 25197 below this level the major support for Nifty will be 25122 (Major support, Mother line, 50 EMA). If by chance 25122 is broken only 2 major supports will be at 25081 and 25005. Shadow of the candle as of now looks negative as of now.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Attempts of Nifty to break free not successfulNifty has attempted multiple times to break free and run wild but it has not succeeded. After making a new high there is consistent bout of profit booking seen. Over a few days now overall market breadth is not on the positive side. This phenomenon is natural when we are making new tops almost every day. Resistances for Nifty at this juncture are at 25330 and 25375. Supports for Nifty remain at 25242, 25193 (Strong support of the trendline) below this level major support will be near 25081 which is a combination of Mid channel support and Mother line support making it a very strong support. If 25081 is broken by any change 24993 will be the only major support remaining before the Nifty falls to Father line support or 24677. To know the importance of Mother and Father line support and to know about the Mother, Father and the Small child theory of stock market (formulated by me), you need to read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24 Nifty closed at 25235 ( Last week 24823 ) and touched low & high of 24899-25263 ( all time high) As suggested for past two weeks, market bounced back and moved up and achieved the first Medium term target 25224. Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. This is the best period to start SIP MF when the valuation is high. Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart. RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (69% and 97% respectively). MACD level crossed cross the signal two weeks before and sustaining. Expecting market to move up further in short term. Nifty 25235 Short term (Short term up) Nifty short term resistance 25540 as shown in chart. Support around 25000(last month high) & 24676 ( trend line support and recent low). Medium Term 25235, next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance). if it moves above decisively next target is 26250. Medium term Support - 24000 Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800 Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. Nifty bank 51368 (Last week 50933 ) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900 Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks. Newly added stocks to buy are PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank. Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis. Nifty IT 42760 (Last week 41089 ) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by karthikss