Things look rosy but keep an eye on 2 major global events. Nifty was in consolidation mode on Friday after making a new high on thursday. It seems to have found a temporary support at 25292. If this support is broken there are further supports at 25133, 24910, 24753 and finally Mother line support of 24602. If 24602 is broken bear will be seen in an active mode. however shadow of the candle as of now seems to be neutral to positive. The resistances for Nifty on the upper side are at 25433 and 25537. Channel top seems to be near 25653 and trend top or the medium term target seems to be at 26335. However Nifty will take some time, correction and consolidation before we reach there in all probability. All eyes from across the globe will be on US Fed action on 18th September. If there is no fed rate cut or only 25bps rate cut announced. Bears can attack the market from all sides, so keep a track of this most important global event next week. This is a make or break global event. Also we should be watchful of events around Russia Vs Ukraine as there was a news that US can give a green signal to long range precision made in US missiles to be used by Ukraine. If this happens it can escalate the matter into a massive global event with negative impact on global markets. Although everything seems rosy as of now. Keep a keen eye on these to major events next week or in the coming days. To guard your profit keep trailing stop losses. To protect your capital use stop loss.
NIFTY
Fresh Bullish Breakout in Nifty after consolidation. Nifty consolidated for a while tested new bottom near 24753 Nifty has today taken down all the resistances and made a new all time high of 25433. Nifty could not hold on to 25.4K+ levels today so the immediate resistance for Nifty will be today's high that is 25433. The next resistance is near 24537. Channel top seems to be near 25653. The door are now open for 26K+ long term target. As of now the long term target as per the trend line seems to be near 26355 with supports at 25293, 24910 and recent bottom formed near 24753. Below this level Mother line support will be near 24571 below which the trend can change bearish.
Nifty getting trapped between two trend lines forming a pennant Nifty is getting trapped between Two trend lines and will look to consolidate further till the trend line is broken on either side. In addition to the trend lines, Nifty is also trapped between Mother and Father line of 50 and 200 Hours EMA. Very interestingly poised Nifty with negative shadow of the candle. Immediate resistances are near 24970, 25027, 25130 and 25192. Above 25192 Bulls can start to breathe easy. Supports for Nifty are at 24885 are 24821. 24821 is the most important support as it is just below the trend line and also 200 Hours EMA that is the Father line. If father line is broken Nifty can further fall to 24751 or even 24527.
Mid-Channel Resistance stopped Nifty growth todayAfter remaining positive and buoyant the full day Mid-channel resistance came to force and stopped Nifty from further growth today, dragging it down from day's high of 25130. The closing is good and above Mother line (50 days EMA).
To know more about Mother, father and small child theory and Happy Candles numbers that we assign to stocks read my book The Happy Candles way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
The supports and resistances for Nifty now are as under:
Supports for Nifty remain at: 24034 (Mother Line support), 25005, 24832, 24807 and finally 24527.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 25130, 25192, 25273 and 25333.
Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive.
Strong comeback by Nifty indicating temporary bottom formation.Nifty today came back strongly after taking support from Father line of 200 EMA and trendline. The support of Father line will be confirmed if we get a positive and strong closing tomorrow. The supports as of now for Nifty remain at 24790 and 24753 (Today's low and trend line support). If by chance FED will not announce a big rate cut, Nifty may again go support searching. If 24753 is broken the next support will be only at channel bottom near 24527. Shadow of the candles as of now remains positive and resistances for the Nifty is in the zone between 25005 and 25033 (Mother line 50 Hour's EMA). If we get a closing above 25033 the next resistances for Nifty will be at 25192, 25273 and 25333.
See how Father line support saved Nifty today. To know about Father, Mother and the small child theory you can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 09-Sep-24 to 13-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 09-Sep-24 to 13-Sep-24
Nifty closed at 24855 ( Last week 25235 ) and touched low & high of 24807-25335 ( all time high)
Market touched new high last week and went down on last fri, Market broke the Ist Support at 25000 and went down last week and currently it is in rangebound.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (52% and 33% respectively). MACD level crossed and went down below signal.
Nifty 24855 Short term (Short term neutral, need to cross key resistance 25545)
Nifty short term resistance 25545 as shown in chart.
Support at 24480 (Fib Support) & 24650 (Trend line support and recent low).
Medium Term 25235, next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance). if it moves above decisively next target is 26250.
Medium term Support - 24000
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800
Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. This is the best period to start SIP MF when the valuation is high.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Nifty bank 50582 (Last week 51117) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Newly added stocks to buy are CAMS, UTI AMC & HDFC AMC and removed tanla platform from the list as the profit is stagnated, to await till next quarter ( Q2) Results.
Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 42234 (Last week 42760) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
Major weakness in Nifty with across the board selling.Nifty today looked very weak as it was not able to sustain many important support levels. Relative strength index of Nifty is also looking that it might fall further. The candle looks like an Olympic diver which has jumped from the podium. You can never say never but shadow of the candle as of now looks very negative and dark red in colour.
Resistance for Nifty will be at 24914, 25076 and 25333. Support for Nifty seem to be at 24702, 24483 (Major Mother Line 50 days EMA support). If this support is broken Bears can have a field day or a field week with no stopping. In such a scenario they can drag Nifty further down to 24242, 24016 or even 23673. The worst case scenario as of now looks like 23174 and 22759. 22759 will be Father line support.
Nifty last took father line support only on 4th june 2024 when it looked as if NDA will not be able to form a Government and there were deep cuts. So it looks improbable that Nifty will fall till father line but you never say never as US and other global markets are in panic mode.
Long term investors can be / should be ready with some liquidity as they might get a good chance for bottom fishing. Long term and ultra long term outlook for Indian markets still looks very positive.
Nifty delicately placed near Mother line & important trendline.Nifty which closed at 25145 is delicately placed just above mother line 50 EMA and an important trend line near 25143. Another important support will be today's low that is 25127. Below this level there can be further weakness which can take Nifty to 25083, 25005 and 24875. If major support of 24875 is broken the final support will be near 24776. If 24776 is broken Bears can take over the market. Resistances on the upper side are at 25173, 25208, 25234, 25269. Above 25269 Bulls can take control of the market at take the market to 25304 or even 25337. Right now shadow of the candle is still little negative.
NIFTY Next buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.We had another success on the Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) on our last buy signal (August 09, see chart below), as we bought after a confirmed rebound on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the index being currently very close to our 25500 Target:
The index continues to follow the a cyclical pattern and this is how we made this previous successful prediction on the 1D MA50. As you can see it was the very same rebound on January 24 2024 (1D MA50 and bottom of the Megaphone) that rose by +6.64% before turning sideways again into a larger (dashed) Megaphone.
We are about to enter this fractal symmetry and potentially initiate a new Megaphone. The former one gave this first buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 again, then on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and finally near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). An additional buy signal was when the 1D RSI hit its Support Zone.
As a result we are closing the previous buy now on profit and will wait for the 1D MA50 contact to buy again and target the top of the Megaphone (Higher Highs trend-line) at 25700.
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Multiple trendlines converging and diverging consolidating NiftyThere are multiple global and local factors playing together line the multiple trendlines shown in the graph converging and diverging. These forces are not allowing Nifty to fall much and recover if it falls. At the same time they are not allowing Nifty to fly away towards 25.5K and above. The support levels for Nifty are at 25133 (Mother Line Support), 25083, 25005 and 24875 (Bottom of the current channel). Resistances for Nifty will be at 25207, 25251, 25304 and finally 25337.
Closing below trendline today shows some weakness in the rallyAlthough the closing on Nifty today was flat, as you can see from the chart closing was below a trendline which shows weakness. This weakness can lead to little more consolidation or can send Nifty searching for a substantial support. Resistance on the upper side seem to be at 25304 and 25337. Supports for Nifty are at 25241, 25197 below this level the major support for Nifty will be 25122 (Major support, Mother line, 50 EMA). If by chance 25122 is broken only 2 major supports will be at 25081 and 25005. Shadow of the candle as of now looks negative as of now.
Attempts of Nifty to break free not successfulNifty has attempted multiple times to break free and run wild but it has not succeeded. After making a new high there is consistent bout of profit booking seen. Over a few days now overall market breadth is not on the positive side. This phenomenon is natural when we are making new tops almost every day. Resistances for Nifty at this juncture are at 25330 and 25375. Supports for Nifty remain at 25242, 25193 (Strong support of the trendline) below this level major support will be near 25081 which is a combination of Mid channel support and Mother line support making it a very strong support. If 25081 is broken by any change 24993 will be the only major support remaining before the Nifty falls to Father line support or 24677.
To know the importance of Mother and Father line support and to know about the Mother, Father and the Small child theory of stock market (formulated by me), you need to read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24
Nifty closed at 25235 ( Last week 24823 ) and touched low & high of 24899-25263 ( all time high)
As suggested for past two weeks, market bounced back and moved up and achieved the first Medium term target 25224.
Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. This is the best period to start SIP MF when the valuation is high.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (69% and 97% respectively). MACD level crossed cross the signal two weeks before and sustaining. Expecting market to move up further in short term.
Nifty 25235 Short term (Short term up)
Nifty short term resistance 25540 as shown in chart.
Support around 25000(last month high) & 24676 ( trend line support and recent low).
Medium Term 25235, next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance). if it moves above decisively next target is 26250.
Medium term Support - 24000
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800
Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty bank 51368 (Last week 50933 ) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Newly added stocks to buy are PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 42760 (Last week 41089 ) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
Bharti Airtel next week target 1540, 1580Bharti Airtel may see good bullishness in the next week, the stock has broken the range of the last three weeks, the stock is currently above 64 % on the daily chart on the RSI indicator, indicating the strength of the stock. The stock is just above the particular golden moving average we discovered. The stock can see an increase of 3 to 5 percent next week.
Solid closing above important Fibonacci level of ATH. Nifty has given a solid closing above previous ATH and important Fibonacci level showing growing momentum. A new All Time High was made today at 25192.90 for Nifty which closed strongly at 25151.95. Now there is a strong support zone for Nifty between 24998 and 24933. 24933 happens to be 50 EMA (Mother's line) as well as mid channel support. This resistance will be tough to conquer for Bears. In case there is closing in an unlikely event below 24933 the next support will be at 24716. On the upper side the next resistances will be near 24193 (weak resistance of ATH). 25294 and finally 25411. 25411 is an important Fibonacci resistance which will be tough to conquer. In case we get a closing above 25411 next month or so the doors for 25840 in the medium to long run will open.
words of Wisdom:
All The boats go up in a tide so go for fundamentally strong stock which have good thematic future rather than momentum traps. Pick Fundamentally strong stocks which are giving a technical breakout.
To know more about stock selection read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon.
Nifty not closing above 25078 is not a good sign.Nifty not able to close above 25078 after making a high of 25129 is not a good sign. It showed a kind of weakness in the rally which can send Nifty downwards searching for the support. Supports for Nifty currently are near 24960 and 24857. Resistances on the upper side are now between the zone of 25078 and 25129. Once we get a closing above 25129 the door going towards 25276 or even 25411 can open. Right now the shadow of the candle is looking slightly red in colour that is negative.
Nifty anlaysis for tomorrow 28 july 2024 (Nifty Intraday Setup)Today After breaking previous day high nifty consolidated from 12 pm to 2 pm and failed to sustain at higher level.
And Nifty closed with a selling swing today.
So for tomorrow if with opening market created a selling swing then a bounce will be expected and day high break or price near high will be expected. Look for W pattern on 5 min.
(SELLING SHOULD NOT BE VERY SHARP AND BIG).
And
If Price move upside and take rejection below todays high & created a lower High (M Pattern on 5 mins.) then intraday low break will be expected.
Nifty Poised for Aggressive UP move | "Trend Compass" BullishThe investment world is constantly evolving, and staying ahead of market trends is crucial for investors seeking to maximize their returns. One tool that can be particularly helpful in navigating the complexities of the stock market is the Trend Compass indicator.
Understanding the Trend Compass Indicator
The Trend Compass indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to identify potential market trends and reversals. It combines various technical indicators and statistical models to generate signals that can help investors make informed decisions.
Trend Compass Bullish Signal for Nifty
According to the latest readings from the Trend Compass indicator, there is a strong bullish signal for the Nifty index. This suggests that the index is poised for an aggressive upmove in the coming days. If this prediction holds true, it could lead to a significant increase in the value of investors' portfolios.
Potential Implications for Investors
A bullish signal from the Trend Compass indicator can be an exciting development for investors. It suggests that the overall market sentiment is positive, and there is potential for substantial gains. However, it's important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals before making any investment decisions. Diversification is also crucial to mitigate risks.
Conclusion
The Trend Compass indicator's bullish signal for the Nifty index is certainly a positive development. However, it's essential to approach this information with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Stay informed about market trends and consult with a financial advisor if needed.
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in the stock market carries risks, and it's essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 26-Aug-24 to 30-Aug-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 26-Aug-24 to 30-Aug-24
Nifty closed at 24823 ( Last week 24413 ) and touched low & high of 24524-24866
As suggested last week, market bounced back and moved up and near to the initial line target of 24900 as shown in the chart.
Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (60% and 90% respectively). MACD level crossed cross the signal last week. Expecting market to move up in short term.
Market have high potential to touch psychological 25000 Mark/ 25200 ( Fib Resistance)
Nifty 24823 Short term (Short term up)
Nifty short term resistance 25075 ( New Peak) and 25224.
Support around 23850 ( trend line support and recent low).
Medium Term 25224( Fib Resistance) as mentioned above, if it crosses then next target is 25542 ( Fib Resistance) which is % of difference between Mar 23 low and Sep 23 high low from Sep23 high shown as vertical line. Caution to be emphasized once market reached medium term target.
Medium term Support - 22700 to 22800
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for the past 2 month as nifty PE is in record high level with high valuation and very less potential to grow further.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% ( i.e Nifty 22800 level) which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Long Term (1-3 years) Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25580 decisively. Support at 21750 ( Trend line support)/ 20800 ( Fib & Trend Line Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500
Nifty bank 50933 (Last week 50494) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Newly added stocks to buy are PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 41089 (40878) indices dipped 37848 in last month, bounced back and reached 41830 last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
Medium Term Nifty Outlook. 24869 proving to be strong resistance for Nifty. If this range is crossed the next resistance will be near 24949 and previous high of 25078. The major support zone is between 24657 and 24738. Right now Nifty is sandwiched between this zone and major move can be seen only after we get a closing above or below these two levels. The top of the trend seems to be near the previous high of Nifty that is 25078. If and when we get a closing above 25078 (Weekly closing). The next target which is also a channel top for Nifty will be near 25411. If we get a closing below 24657 the next major supports will be near 24437, 24120 and finally 23893. Below 23893 there will be weakness and bears can take over the market. Shadow of the candle right not is slightly green in colour (positive).