Prospects of Further downside in Nifty hanging by the thread. Pretty bad closing by Nifty today which has further downside in Nifty hanging by the thread. As you can see we are near the bottom of the pennant structure. If the downside is broken by any chance possibility of further downside can not be ruled out. However if the support of today's low is maintained possibility of upside will open up. Silver lining in the cloud is DII being on buying side and RSI has take an upward turn with closing above yellow line.
The supports for Nifty now are at 23463 Bollinger lower band support, 23380 and 23365 (Final Support).
Resistances on the upper side for Nifty are at 23682 (Bollinger mid band), 23722 (Mother line resistance), 23787 (Bollinger upper band), 23889 and finally 23980 (Father line resistance). Above 23980 closing the door for further up side will open. With Medium term targets being at 24073, 24103, 24232, 24302 and finally 24401. Above 24401 closing Bulls can jump back to business.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NIFTY
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 09.01.2025On Wednesday, Nifty opened with a gap-up and touched a high of 23,751.85. However, it couldn’t sustain the momentum and dropped to a low of 23,496.15. It managed to close at 23,688.95, losing a modest 19 points over the previous close. The Weekly and Daily Trends (50 SMA) remain sideways, reflecting indecision in the market.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Demand/Support Zone (30m): 23,496.15 - 23,559.20
Near Support Level: 23,263 (low of 21st November 2024)
Far Support Level: 23,189.88 (61.8% FIBO retracement)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21,791.95 - 22,910.15
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 23,966.95 - 24,054.30
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24,164.90 - 24,210.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 24,149.85 - 24,394.45 (tested)
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,567.65 - 25,234.05 (tested)
Outlook
Despite a gap-up start, Nifty struggled to hold gains. Watch for a breakdown below the support at 23,189 for potential bearish action. On the upside, crossing 24,400 could signal recovery.
Plan for 9th January 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Parallel Channel hourly candles suggests Nifty is delicate zone.Parallel Channel of Nifty suggest that we are in delicate zone with shadow of the candle being positive. Nifty has thrice taken support on the channel bottom as you can see in the chart. A strong support zone for Nifty is seeing strong buying emerging near the channel bottom. This strong support zone is between 23509 and 23263.
The Three important resistances however are not allowing Nifty to grow further. These 3 resistance are:
1) Mother line resistance near 23775.
2) Father and trend line combine resistance near 24010.
3) Third important resistance for Nifty to conquer will be near 24288 which is the mid channel resistance.
When we will get a closing above 24288 the Bull can breath a little easy and try and push Nifty upwards towards 24510, 24779 or even above 25K.
The zone between 25033 and 25200 will again be a tough zone to conquer as the Nifty will again hit the top of the parallel channel.
Conclusion: All is good till we do not get a closing below 23K levels. Below 23K levels weekly closing Bears will have position to overpower the market and drag Nifty further down. For long term investors this is good opportunity to invest big go long and hold on.
Today ONGC, Reliance, ITC, Asian Paints, Dr Reddy, Wipro and TCS are the few large cap stocks which saw buying.
The laggards for Nifty today were Apollo Hospitals, Trent, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Auto, ultratech and few other Large cap stocks.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 08.01.2025On Tuesday, Nifty opened with a gap-up but traded within a narrow range, touching a high of 23,795.50 and a low of 23,637.80. The index ended the session at 23,707.90, gaining 92 points over the previous close. Both, the Weekly and Daily Trends (50 SMA) remain sideways, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Support Level: 23,263 (Low of 21st November 2024)
Far Support Level: 23,189.88 (61.8% FIBO retracement)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21,791.95 - 22,910.15
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 23,966.95 - 24,054.30
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 24,164.90 - 24,210.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 24,149.85 - 24,394.45 (tested)
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,567.65 - 25,234.05 (tested)
Outlook
After recent volatility, the Nifty appears to be consolidating within a narrow range. A break above the 24,400 resistance could trigger further upside, while support at 22,900 - 23,200 remains critical for bulls to defend. Watch these levels for potential breakout or breakdown opportunities.
Support, Resistance and Bollinger Band suggest limited downside.I have just drawn Supports, Resistance, Mother, Father lines and added Bollinger band to Nifty chart. The indication is limited downside for now in Nifty unless the Chinese Virus is overplayed in the market by the bears and other forces. My discussion with medical fraternity and other knowledgeable people suggest that the threat of HPMV is overplayed and mortality rates might not be as high as COVID in the recent virus outbreak. This is the information I have however I advise utmost caution would wish you to verify the information with friends in the medical field in your knowhow. Currently Bollinger band is not suggesting a heavy downside. However things will be more clear by end of this week as the market plays out. Not more than 2 to 5% (max) down side is visible to me in the short term unless there is a global catastrophe of massive order. RSI has taken a turn hopefully soon it will embark towards bullishness.
Supports for Nifty Remains at: 23249, 23466, 23555. Below 23249 flood gates for further downside can open.
Resistances for Nifty: 23720, 23795, 23855 (Mother line or 50 Hours EMA), 23942 (Mid-Bollinger band level), 24061 (Father line or 200 Hours EMA), 24146, 24231 and finally 24326 (Bollinger band top).
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Review and plan for 7th July 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Intraday and Swing Trade Analysis For 06/01/25 And weekly
In this post, I’m sharing my detailed analysis of Nifty 50’s recent price action, focusing on intraday and swing trades. This setup incorporates technical patterns, volume confirmation, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to identify high-probability trade opportunities.
Key Observations
Bearish Momentum Across Timeframes: Both daily and intraday charts show strong bearish trends validated by supply zones and volume spikes.
Critical Levels Identified:
Resistance: 24,200 - 24,400 (Supply Zone).
Support: 23,950 (Intraday) and 23,700 - 23,500 (Swing Levels).
Volume Profile: Volume spikes on breakdowns confirm institutional involvement.
Trade Plan: Intraday
Scenario 1: Sell Below 23,950
Entry: Below 23,950 (confirmed breakdown).
Stop Loss: Above 24,050.
Target 1: 23,900.
Target 2: 23,850.
Rationale: Break below 23,950 signals bearish continuation with strong seller dominance.
Scenario 2: Buy Above 24,050
Entry: Above 24,050.
Stop Loss: Below 23,950.
Target 1: 24,100.
Target 2: 24,150.
Rationale: Reclaiming 24,050 indicates a potential bullish reversal.
Confidence Level: Moderate (requires strong buying volume).
SWING TRADING
Scenario 1: Swing Sell Below 23,900
Entry: Below 23,900.
Stop Loss: Above 24,150.
Target 1: 23,700.
Target 2: 23,500.
Rationale: A breakdown below 23,900 aligns with the long-term bearish structure and supply rejection.
Scenario 2: Swing Buy Above 24,200
Entry: Above 24,200.
Stop Loss: Below 24,000.
Target 1: 24,400.
Target 2: 24,600.
Rationale: Clearing the supply zone at 24,200 would confirm a trend reversal.
Confidence Level: Moderate.
Advanced Concepts Used
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Supply Zone: 24,200 - 24,400.
Demand Zone: 23,700 - 23,500.
Liquidity Trap: Below 23,950.
Volume Confirmation:
Selling volume spikes during breakdowns confirm bearish moves.
Low-volume retracements suggest weak buying interest.
Indicators:
RSI: Below 50 on daily charts, supporting bearish momentum.
MACD: Bearish crossover on daily charts aligns with the trend.
Moving Averages: Price below the 20 EMA and 50 EMA reinforces bearish bias.
Why This Trade Setup Stands Out
This analysis combines the best of price action, volume confirmation, and advanced SMC tools. Each level and decision is backed by data and market behavior, ensuring a methodical approach to trading.
Disclaimer
The views and trade ideas shared in this post are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Trading involves significant risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Review and plan for 6th January 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing ideas.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 06-Dec-2025Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 06-Dec-2025
Nifty closed at 24004 (2 weeks before 23587), for last 50 days nifty was in rangebound movement from 23200 to 25000.
RSI at 48 ,Macd signal is negative 115 and stochastics levels is 41%, Still RSI should cross its MA, MACD to reach positive and Stochastics should cross its signal decisively.
Buy call on dips was given month before. Market yet to cross crucial 24800-25000resistance decisively. Hence please filter the stock, diversify investment in equities with lesser risk stocks. However, SIP on stocks/ MFs always better at this critical time instead of bulk investment.
Hence, Q3 results, Interest Rate reduction and Feb Budget is the key for the market to sustain above 25000, move above 26000 to next targets of 27000.
I started adding the stocks and Mutual Funds during this downfall for the last two weeks and continue to buy if there is further fall. Use the opportunity and grab the good value stocks or invest in Mutual funds. Assume each parcel can be 5-7 % parcel of your total investment planned in the near term.
Kindly read the Bitcoin Blog which i have written in Sep & Oct 24 with clear Indications to Buy with target of atleast 77000 and it touched 100,000 as Trump won the US Presidential election .
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for last 5 months as nifty PE (Currently in 22.1) is still in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap index with PE ratio >40 and >35 respectively. Hence more in large cap MF in allocation over Mid & Small Cap.
Invest in MF as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period, further market correction can happen upto nifty index to 22800 from current level, Individual value stock picking is a key at this critical time.
Fundamentally good stocks to be invested at these times. My Stock analysis of diwali recommendation from major financial agencies/ analyst and also some of the stock which is good as per my analysis will be provided upon request in comment section . Individual need to analyse on their own. Further additional fundamental good value stocks ( which i have analysed ) . Please note these are all not stock recommendation, rather an analysis. Individual Can analyze and add to your portfolio based on your risk profile.
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Nifty 24004 short term
Nifty short term resistance at 24800 to 25000 level (0.5 Fib Resistance), once crossed 25122 (0.618 Fib Resistance) and 25350( Shoulder Pattern) is the next target.
Support at 24329, and 24199( Last week Low) and 24000
Medium Term next target if move up decisively above 25350, next target is 26268 ( all time high)and 26968 (1.618 Fib Resistance)
Medium term Support 23265 ( Nov low),23000 and 22800
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27740, 28000 & 28190 ( Fibonacci Resistance).
Support at 21240
Nifty Interesting Observations.Nifty - There has been an interesting symmetry observed in the #nifty from the Covid Lows.
1) Rally (1) started on 23 March 2020 (7511) and continued till 18 Oct 2021 (18604) rallying almost 11903 Points with minor corrections in between. After a strong rally index corrected entered in a correction Phase.
2) The correction started after hitting the highs at 18604 and last for over a month declining by about 3420 points from the highs. The correction ended on 13 Jun 2022 forming bottom at 15183 levels.
The correction ended around 100 Weekly EMA and then it started next leg of upmove.
3) Here's an interesting point.
The Rally (2) started on 13 Jun at 15183 and continued for nearly 2 years and topped at 26277 on 23 Sept 2024.
Here if we calculate at distance , The rally 2 also rallied almost 11903 points (which was the same points in Rally 1 as discussed above)
4) The index is in the corrective Phase and has nearly dropped over 10 percent from the Peak so far.
Following the Price symmetry and the price action the correction phase is likely to expand and shall decline 3420 points (which was the case in earlier correction phase) OR
Correction likely to extend further to test the 100 Weekly EMA which was observed in the earlier Corrective Phase (1) which ended near the 100 Weekly EMA.
Do you AGREE !! What's you view ?? Will appreciate if you to share you analysis ....? :)
NIFTY SEEMS NEGATIVEHERE, I am sharing my idea on Nifty at closing of 3rd January, 2025.
There is strong SUPPLY ZONE at 24,400 TO 24,250.
Next DEMAND ZONE is at 23,800 TO 23,700.
Long term view is BEARISH
RSI WITH SMA: RSI is below 50 mark and has failed to breach 50 mark in last trading session.
RSI MOVING AVERAGE is sloping downwards since 17TH DEC, 2024.
SO, 1ST TARGET of NIFTY IS 23,800 - 23,700
Once it crosses this DEMANG ZONE, Next target WILL BE, 22,800 - 22,650.
This is simply my attempt to predict Nifty, I am not asking anyone to trade based on this idea.
Mid-Channel Resistance on Hourly charts Stops Nifty. The parallel channel is a channel in which the stock or index travels for a particular period of time. The upper frame of the channel acts as a strong resistance and the lower frame of the index acts as a support. Mid channel works in a dual way. If the price or the index level is above the Mid-Channel it acts as support if the price or the index level is below the Mid-Channel the line acts as resistance. Also on the daily chart of Nifty the level of 24212 was a Mother line Resistance of 50 day's EMA. Nifty today made a high of 24196 and retreated from there so it can be safely said that these 2 levels 24212(Mother line) and 24226 (Mid Channel resistance see in the chart will be most important resistances moving forward into the next week and probably full month. There is also a news of HPMV Virus outbreak in China as Trump resumes Presidency. Quarterly Results have already started flowing in and good results are expected this time around unlike traditionally weak October quarter. Additionally we are near the budget and there are news trickling in about relief to the Middle Class. Which can spark a pre-budget rally. So the signals from international market, technical analysis and on the local front. Next week is very important with perspective of full month of January.
Nifty Supports Remain at: 23989, 23902 (50 Hours Mother Line), 23797, 23540 (channel bottom Support) and finally 23279. Below 23279 closing Nifty has potential to fall totally into the bear grip. This does not look likely unless there is a catastrophic global event.
Nifty Resistances Remain at: 24086 (200 Hours EMA or the Father line Resistance), 24226 (Mid Channel Resistance), 24348, 24556, 24779, 24919 and finally 25025 (Channel top resistance).
Blue or Red - Which Alternative Would Play Out in NIFTY50?I see two major possibilities in NSE:NIFTY from Elliott Wave perspective, marked in red and blue.
As per blue counts, B of ABC down was done at 24857.75 and we are in C down. The downmove in C so far was corrective W (internally WXYXZ, or triple zigzag) so the bounce this week should be X. X has already retraced more than 50%, though less than 61.8%, so there is a possibility this X is complete and wave Y down within larger wave C will unfold next week. Having said that, X may not be over and might do 61.8% or more so that leaves some more room on the upside followed by Y down.
On the other hand, as per red counts, we are still in wave B of ABC down. 61.8% of the A is around 25125 so B might make an attempt towards or beyond that level. Once that's done, C should unfold on the downside.
Bigger picture is that, C down is still pending (or already in progress as per blue count) in both scenarios. If we break the low of 23460 then blue wave counts would likely play out. But if we break this week's high of 23226.70 then either blue or red counts could be in play as per the upside levels mentioned in both cases.
Let's see on which side camel will sit ...
Review and plan for 3rd January 2024 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing idea in stock.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Stages Massive Comeback. But Will The Mother Line Relent? Nifty has staged a massive comeback today on the back of FII buying today. Nifty made a high of 24226 but Mother line Resistance (50 day's EMA at 24221) pushed it back a bit and it ended the day at 24188. If the mother line relents tomorrow and if we can get a weekly closing above 24221 tomorrow Bulls have potential to take the momentum forward into January with a possibility of Budget rally.
The supports for Nifty remain at 23926, 23698 (Father Line Support of 200 day's EMA), 23494 and finally 23238. Below 23238 all hell can break loose and bears will have potential to Pull Nifty further down.
Resistances on the upper side remain at 24221 (Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) followed by 24389, 24600 and 24876 before Nifty snatches back 25K levels.
Shadow of the candle remains neutral to positive but it can turn neutral or even negative if Mother line resistance comes into play again. The best possibility for Nifty remains if it can get a gap up opening above 24221. This can happen if we get good support from International indices and Gift Nifty tonight. Tomorrow's closing will be very important as it is the first weekly closing for the year.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Review and plan for 2nd January 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing ideas.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Escorts Limited - At long term significant support zoneEscorts has been forming series of Higher Highs and Highs lows indicates strong uptrend.
The higher low has since last 4-5 years has bottomed out the 20 Monthly EMA.
The stock has consistently found support at the moving average and bottomed out near the same.
Currently stock is placed near the same juncture, going ahead if support holds well like in the past, stock could end its corrective phase and resume its prior uptrend.