Gapped But Not Forgotten - NIFTYAs I posted earlier in my previous post yesterday, FINNIFTY went to cover the unfilled zone on the marked levels today, successfully hitting the marked zone.
Coming to the chart of NIFTY, it can be seen there are some old dues for this index to clear as well, which can be expected as early as tomorrow since the unfilled zone of 550-480 can be seen just below todays closing which shall see some activity as per previous moves.
The covering of these gaps ups (& downs) has never been more exciting as a options buyer where such sharp moves can be seen forming consecutively.
NIFTY
Nifty live prediction for today 3rd Jan 24As we have discussed, Nifty has been moving upwards in the channel. Now, it has broken down to the lower channel, which shows a bearishness in the NIFTY behavior. There is a high probability that it will now continue in the lower channel as a bearish trend. OI data also confirms its bearish nature with PCR = 0.70. it will be bearish for now.
Reasons:
It has entered the bearish channel side. Now, fall might be sharp. (Bearish)
Price < EMAs that show the bearishness in the market. also it has given crossover(ema(13,50)) which always shows reversal of the trend.
RSI = 40 shows the weak bulls and might enter <40 that will be the start of heavy bearishness.
if we see the OI data PCR = 0.70 which shows bearishness in the market.
21500 will be acting as a nice support level to the downside. Upside 21600 will be acting as a nice resistance zone; OI data also confirms that.
Verdict:
Bearish
Plan of action:
Sell 21550 CE and hedge it with a small CE premium.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -03/01/2024Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 21650 level and then possible downside rally up to 21530 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 21670 level then the upside target can go up to the 21790 level.
Weakness can continue if important levels breached. Two key levels for Nifty to hold on in this market weakness triggered by some global events and Profit booking are 21555 and 21450. Closing below 21450 can lead to further weakness and Nifty can fall to the levels of 21242, 20951 or even 20768. The worst case scenario visible as of now seems to be 20592. In case 20592 is breached Bears will start calling the shots and pull Nifty back levels of 19809 are possible but not probable. (Major Negative News). In case Nifty takes support at 21555 or 21450, form a bottom and bounce resistance will be near 21751, 21839. Closing above 21839 will open the door towards channel top area which can lead Nifty to 22K or even 22363 levels.
Review and plan for 3rd January 2023 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-01-Jan-24 to 05-Jan-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-01-Jan-24 to 05-Jan-24
Nifty closed at 21726 ( Prev Week Close 21349) and touched low & high of 21238 & 21800.
RSI and stochastics levels ( 78% & 95 % Respectively) . Stochastics in overbought zone after a short runup last week
Market had a little rally due to global market upward movement last week as expected and touched high of 21800 but with a small dip on the last day of last week.
On new year day market was almost flat and couldnt move beyond 21800-21850 which to be considered as resistance to market.
Fibonacci extended resistance is near to 22500 as shown in chart which is 5 % from current level. Since there is a upward movement in global market, nifty likely move up temporarily to 21800-21850 / 22000 though Market is still in overbought zone.
Profit booking upto 30% was suggested in the last month, Almost i have booked 20% profit in Equities & Mutual Funds. 100% of ulip shifted from equities to balanced funds & money market as we get free switches in ulip.
Market can any time expected to turn volatile and it will continue till Q3 results, Feb budget & till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
In Feb, Temporary budget most likely to favour income tax payers inorder to keep in mind of elections and to concentrate on infra (Railways & Road).
Nifty IT had a good run in last few days with expectation of growing world economic condition especially US. But in expectation of Q3 results especially bluechip companies, certain bank stocks market may go upwards to 22500 due to the current scenario.
Q3 Results & Policy changes are need to be looked into for next year growth of Nifty.
Nifty- Short Term ( Neutral)
Resistances are at 21800-21850 , 22000 ( however no trend line, fibonacci resistance are available).
Support at 21260 ( MA 21 ) ,20000 ( Fib Resistance) , 20500 ( Fib Support) , 20225 ( prev high)
Nifty Medium Term & long Term -
Market decisively closed above 21000 last week and near to 21500
Can achieve 22500 target if close above 22000 decisively.
Support at 20225/ 20000/ 19850
Long Term
market range bound between 22500 to 18800 till elections are completed.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -02/01/2024Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 21670 level and then possible downside rally up to 21550 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 21710 level then the upside target can go up to the 21830 level.
21800 to 21840 is zone which is proving to be strong resistance.Another Dangerous Doji formed today. If yesterday's Doji candle was indecisive, today's Doji was little negative in nature as the closing was substantially low compared to where the index was before just an hour or 2 before closing. Mainly the news of Earthquake in Japan and the magnitude of destruction could be one of the reason of sudden weakness. Support for Nifty will be at 21682, 21471 and 21242. Resistance on the upper side for Nifty will be at 21802 and 21840. Crossing and closing above 21840 can give Nifty a free run towards 21900 or even 22000. But indecisiveness is causing a negative shadow.
Nifty facing a trendline resistance near 21800.Nifty is facing a trendline resistance near 21800. 22000 seems to be the top for the current hourly parallel channel with a strong resistance near 21800 and 21891. There are various levels of support for the Nifty from the current level are 21676, 21597, 21526 (Strong Support 50 hours EMA), 21397 and 21239 (Channel bottom). Either 20995 or 20883 can be the turning point or reversal points closing below which current bull rally can end.
Nifty Moving Swiftly taking the support of trend-line. Nifty Moving Swiftly taking the support of trend-line making a HHHL pattern (Higher High, Higher Low). Nifty might face little bit of a technical resistance between today's high 21675 and 21690. Closing above 21690 will open the gates towards 21799 and finally 22K levels. The road towards 22K after Crossing 21799 might not be as smooth as things have been till now.
Supports for Nifty remain at 21599, 21476 and 21373 (Very important and strong support). closing below 21373 can take Nifty upto 21112 or even below 20K levels.
Resistances on the way up for Nifty will be at the zone between 21675 and 21690. Major channel top resistance is near 21799.
Review and plan for 29th December 2023Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan in kannada.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Aditya Birla Capital Ltd At Discount 8-)Key Points
Diversified Portfolio
The co. has a portfolio across Lending, Insurance, Asset management, and Other services which caters to a wide range of customer segments, needs, channels, and geographies.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 31.4% CAGR over last 5 years
Company's median sales growth is 26.0% of last 10 years
Market Cap ₹ 42,022 Cr.
Current Price ₹ 162
High / Low ₹ 199 / 133
Stock P/E 251
Book Value ₹ 51.0
Dividend Yield 0.00 %
ROCE 1.84 %
ROE 1.41 %
Face Value ₹ 10.0
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-26-Dec-23 to 29-Dec-23Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-26-Dec-23 to 29-Dec-23
Nifty closed at 21349( Prev Week close 21496) and touched low & high of 20970 & 21590.
RSI and stochastics levels reduced from overbought zone ( 72% & 69 % Respectively) .
Market currently on a upward movement due to global run and had slight consolidation last week.
Two Fibonacci extended resistances are near to 22500 as shown in chart which is 5 % from current level.
Since there is a upward movement in global market, nifty expected to move up temporarily to 21750 / 22000 though Market is still in overbought zone.
Profit booking upto 30% was suggested in the last three weeks, Almost i have booked 20% profit in Equities & Mutual Funds. 100% of ulip shifted from equities to balanced funds & money market as we get free switches in ulip.
Market can any time expected to turn volatile and it will continue till Q3 results, Feb budget & till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024.
Feb Temporary budget most likely to favour income tax payers inorder to keep in mind of elections and to concentrate on infra (Railways & Road).
Nifty IT had a good run in last few days with expectation of growing world economic condition especially US. But in expectation of Q3 results especially bluechip companies, certain bank stocks market may go upwards to 22500 due to the current scenario.
Q3 Results & Policy changes are need to be looked into for next year growth of Nifty.
Nifty- Short Term
Resistances are at 21750, 22000 ( however no trend line, fibonacci resistance are available)
Support at 20800 ( MA 21 ) ,20500 ( Fib Support) , 20225 ( prev high)
Nifty Medium Term & long Term -
Market decisively closed above 21000 last week and near to 21500
Can achieve 22500 target if close above 22000 decisively.
Support at 20225/ 20000/ 19850
Long Term
market range bound between 22500 to 18800 till elections are completed.
Nifty stopped at Mid-Channel resistance of hourly channelNifty today stopped at mid-channel resistance of hourly channel. holding above 50 hours EMA (Mother Line) was a significant step in recovery towards recent high that Nifty made earlier this month. Supports for Nifty 50 remain at 21302 and 21258 (Major support - 50 hours EMA) mother line. If we get a closing next week below 21258 the Nifty can fall further to 21113 or 20980 levels. Trend can change to negative if we get a closing below 20777. Bear can awaken from coma if and only if we get a closing below 20641 (200 Hours EMA)(Father Line). Resistances on the way up will be at 20397, 21483 and previous high around 21593.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -21/12/2023Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 21130 level and then possible upside rally up to 21250 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 21080 level then the downside target can go up to the 20960 level.
Reasonsing the fall support resistance levels of Nifty. Detection of New Covid variant set the panic button rolling. There has to be a reason for overbought market to fall. This news created panic or it was used to create panic. We never know for certain how big this will be. Everyone wants to be cautious.
The markets were overbought on charts. FIIs were sitting on handsome Profits and Christmas time they usually encash the same to book profits. Show it in the account books. Usually they book Profits around this time / year end (Financial year end in the West). Show the profit where ever and if they want to / have to. Hence they book Profit.
Also there is periodic churning and sectoral rotation. Which is necessary in my opinion even for the long term investors. Lot of Large cap stocks did not suffer / did not suffer as much as the small and mid cap stocks. We have been vocal about sectoral rotation towards Large and selective Mid/Small cap stocks since long time.
RSI / MACD (Relative Strength Index/ Moving Averages Convergence and Divergence ) were indicating since last few days that markets are overbought. Hence correction on Technical grounds was also necessary for fresh leg of rally.
What Next? Invest in fundamentally strong stocks which are looking good on chart. Booking losses is also part of the investment journey if required. (Specially if stop losses are hit). When to buy? Do not catch a falling knife. Catch the bouncing ball. Let the stock you like the most confirm their bottom. Bounce from the bottom and then you buy them.
Market is always a mystery. If you look at FII DII numbers today. DII were buying the dip. You never know for sure when the market will turn exactly. This fall should have happened 10/15 days back. But in one day market can cover what it could have done in 10 days. In One day it can come back with a bang tomorrow.
We should always follow the individual chart of the company. Book Profit where every we can periodically at least partial profit booking can be done. No one has gone broke in the world by booking profits. Sectoral rotation at times is also beneficial.
As far as support and resistance levels are concerned.
Nifty Support Levels: 21097, 21032 and 20849 are the supports. (20849 is rather a strong support). If 20849 is broken Nifty can fall further to 200 Hours EMA at 20546.
Resistance Levels: 21236 (Strong resistance) followed by 21322 and 21483. 21593 (high of the current rally will me a major resistance now).
Wait for the bounce do not buy the dip in a hurry.