Review and plan for 7th July 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
NIFTY
Nifty Intraday and Swing Trade Analysis For 06/01/25 And weekly
In this post, I’m sharing my detailed analysis of Nifty 50’s recent price action, focusing on intraday and swing trades. This setup incorporates technical patterns, volume confirmation, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to identify high-probability trade opportunities.
Key Observations
Bearish Momentum Across Timeframes: Both daily and intraday charts show strong bearish trends validated by supply zones and volume spikes.
Critical Levels Identified:
Resistance: 24,200 - 24,400 (Supply Zone).
Support: 23,950 (Intraday) and 23,700 - 23,500 (Swing Levels).
Volume Profile: Volume spikes on breakdowns confirm institutional involvement.
Trade Plan: Intraday
Scenario 1: Sell Below 23,950
Entry: Below 23,950 (confirmed breakdown).
Stop Loss: Above 24,050.
Target 1: 23,900.
Target 2: 23,850.
Rationale: Break below 23,950 signals bearish continuation with strong seller dominance.
Scenario 2: Buy Above 24,050
Entry: Above 24,050.
Stop Loss: Below 23,950.
Target 1: 24,100.
Target 2: 24,150.
Rationale: Reclaiming 24,050 indicates a potential bullish reversal.
Confidence Level: Moderate (requires strong buying volume).
SWING TRADING
Scenario 1: Swing Sell Below 23,900
Entry: Below 23,900.
Stop Loss: Above 24,150.
Target 1: 23,700.
Target 2: 23,500.
Rationale: A breakdown below 23,900 aligns with the long-term bearish structure and supply rejection.
Scenario 2: Swing Buy Above 24,200
Entry: Above 24,200.
Stop Loss: Below 24,000.
Target 1: 24,400.
Target 2: 24,600.
Rationale: Clearing the supply zone at 24,200 would confirm a trend reversal.
Confidence Level: Moderate.
Advanced Concepts Used
Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Supply Zone: 24,200 - 24,400.
Demand Zone: 23,700 - 23,500.
Liquidity Trap: Below 23,950.
Volume Confirmation:
Selling volume spikes during breakdowns confirm bearish moves.
Low-volume retracements suggest weak buying interest.
Indicators:
RSI: Below 50 on daily charts, supporting bearish momentum.
MACD: Bearish crossover on daily charts aligns with the trend.
Moving Averages: Price below the 20 EMA and 50 EMA reinforces bearish bias.
Why This Trade Setup Stands Out
This analysis combines the best of price action, volume confirmation, and advanced SMC tools. Each level and decision is backed by data and market behavior, ensuring a methodical approach to trading.
Disclaimer
The views and trade ideas shared in this post are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not financial advice and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Trading involves significant risk, and you should carefully consider your financial situation, objectives, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Review and plan for 6th January 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing ideas.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 06-Dec-2025Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 06-Dec-2025
Nifty closed at 24004 (2 weeks before 23587), for last 50 days nifty was in rangebound movement from 23200 to 25000.
RSI at 48 ,Macd signal is negative 115 and stochastics levels is 41%, Still RSI should cross its MA, MACD to reach positive and Stochastics should cross its signal decisively.
Buy call on dips was given month before. Market yet to cross crucial 24800-25000resistance decisively. Hence please filter the stock, diversify investment in equities with lesser risk stocks. However, SIP on stocks/ MFs always better at this critical time instead of bulk investment.
Hence, Q3 results, Interest Rate reduction and Feb Budget is the key for the market to sustain above 25000, move above 26000 to next targets of 27000.
I started adding the stocks and Mutual Funds during this downfall for the last two weeks and continue to buy if there is further fall. Use the opportunity and grab the good value stocks or invest in Mutual funds. Assume each parcel can be 5-7 % parcel of your total investment planned in the near term.
Kindly read the Bitcoin Blog which i have written in Sep & Oct 24 with clear Indications to Buy with target of atleast 77000 and it touched 100,000 as Trump won the US Presidential election .
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for last 5 months as nifty PE (Currently in 22.1) is still in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap index with PE ratio >40 and >35 respectively. Hence more in large cap MF in allocation over Mid & Small Cap.
Invest in MF as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period, further market correction can happen upto nifty index to 22800 from current level, Individual value stock picking is a key at this critical time.
Fundamentally good stocks to be invested at these times. My Stock analysis of diwali recommendation from major financial agencies/ analyst and also some of the stock which is good as per my analysis will be provided upon request in comment section . Individual need to analyse on their own. Further additional fundamental good value stocks ( which i have analysed ) . Please note these are all not stock recommendation, rather an analysis. Individual Can analyze and add to your portfolio based on your risk profile.
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Nifty 24004 short term
Nifty short term resistance at 24800 to 25000 level (0.5 Fib Resistance), once crossed 25122 (0.618 Fib Resistance) and 25350( Shoulder Pattern) is the next target.
Support at 24329, and 24199( Last week Low) and 24000
Medium Term next target if move up decisively above 25350, next target is 26268 ( all time high)and 26968 (1.618 Fib Resistance)
Medium term Support 23265 ( Nov low),23000 and 22800
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27740, 28000 & 28190 ( Fibonacci Resistance).
Support at 21240
Nifty Interesting Observations.Nifty - There has been an interesting symmetry observed in the #nifty from the Covid Lows.
1) Rally (1) started on 23 March 2020 (7511) and continued till 18 Oct 2021 (18604) rallying almost 11903 Points with minor corrections in between. After a strong rally index corrected entered in a correction Phase.
2) The correction started after hitting the highs at 18604 and last for over a month declining by about 3420 points from the highs. The correction ended on 13 Jun 2022 forming bottom at 15183 levels.
The correction ended around 100 Weekly EMA and then it started next leg of upmove.
3) Here's an interesting point.
The Rally (2) started on 13 Jun at 15183 and continued for nearly 2 years and topped at 26277 on 23 Sept 2024.
Here if we calculate at distance , The rally 2 also rallied almost 11903 points (which was the same points in Rally 1 as discussed above)
4) The index is in the corrective Phase and has nearly dropped over 10 percent from the Peak so far.
Following the Price symmetry and the price action the correction phase is likely to expand and shall decline 3420 points (which was the case in earlier correction phase) OR
Correction likely to extend further to test the 100 Weekly EMA which was observed in the earlier Corrective Phase (1) which ended near the 100 Weekly EMA.
Do you AGREE !! What's you view ?? Will appreciate if you to share you analysis ....? :)
NIFTY SEEMS NEGATIVEHERE, I am sharing my idea on Nifty at closing of 3rd January, 2025.
There is strong SUPPLY ZONE at 24,400 TO 24,250.
Next DEMAND ZONE is at 23,800 TO 23,700.
Long term view is BEARISH
RSI WITH SMA: RSI is below 50 mark and has failed to breach 50 mark in last trading session.
RSI MOVING AVERAGE is sloping downwards since 17TH DEC, 2024.
SO, 1ST TARGET of NIFTY IS 23,800 - 23,700
Once it crosses this DEMANG ZONE, Next target WILL BE, 22,800 - 22,650.
This is simply my attempt to predict Nifty, I am not asking anyone to trade based on this idea.
Mid-Channel Resistance on Hourly charts Stops Nifty. The parallel channel is a channel in which the stock or index travels for a particular period of time. The upper frame of the channel acts as a strong resistance and the lower frame of the index acts as a support. Mid channel works in a dual way. If the price or the index level is above the Mid-Channel it acts as support if the price or the index level is below the Mid-Channel the line acts as resistance. Also on the daily chart of Nifty the level of 24212 was a Mother line Resistance of 50 day's EMA. Nifty today made a high of 24196 and retreated from there so it can be safely said that these 2 levels 24212(Mother line) and 24226 (Mid Channel resistance see in the chart will be most important resistances moving forward into the next week and probably full month. There is also a news of HPMV Virus outbreak in China as Trump resumes Presidency. Quarterly Results have already started flowing in and good results are expected this time around unlike traditionally weak October quarter. Additionally we are near the budget and there are news trickling in about relief to the Middle Class. Which can spark a pre-budget rally. So the signals from international market, technical analysis and on the local front. Next week is very important with perspective of full month of January.
Nifty Supports Remain at: 23989, 23902 (50 Hours Mother Line), 23797, 23540 (channel bottom Support) and finally 23279. Below 23279 closing Nifty has potential to fall totally into the bear grip. This does not look likely unless there is a catastrophic global event.
Nifty Resistances Remain at: 24086 (200 Hours EMA or the Father line Resistance), 24226 (Mid Channel Resistance), 24348, 24556, 24779, 24919 and finally 25025 (Channel top resistance).
Blue or Red - Which Alternative Would Play Out in NIFTY50?I see two major possibilities in NSE:NIFTY from Elliott Wave perspective, marked in red and blue.
As per blue counts, B of ABC down was done at 24857.75 and we are in C down. The downmove in C so far was corrective W (internally WXYXZ, or triple zigzag) so the bounce this week should be X. X has already retraced more than 50%, though less than 61.8%, so there is a possibility this X is complete and wave Y down within larger wave C will unfold next week. Having said that, X may not be over and might do 61.8% or more so that leaves some more room on the upside followed by Y down.
On the other hand, as per red counts, we are still in wave B of ABC down. 61.8% of the A is around 25125 so B might make an attempt towards or beyond that level. Once that's done, C should unfold on the downside.
Bigger picture is that, C down is still pending (or already in progress as per blue count) in both scenarios. If we break the low of 23460 then blue wave counts would likely play out. But if we break this week's high of 23226.70 then either blue or red counts could be in play as per the upside levels mentioned in both cases.
Let's see on which side camel will sit ...
Review and plan for 3rd January 2024 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing idea in stock.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty Stages Massive Comeback. But Will The Mother Line Relent? Nifty has staged a massive comeback today on the back of FII buying today. Nifty made a high of 24226 but Mother line Resistance (50 day's EMA at 24221) pushed it back a bit and it ended the day at 24188. If the mother line relents tomorrow and if we can get a weekly closing above 24221 tomorrow Bulls have potential to take the momentum forward into January with a possibility of Budget rally.
The supports for Nifty remain at 23926, 23698 (Father Line Support of 200 day's EMA), 23494 and finally 23238. Below 23238 all hell can break loose and bears will have potential to Pull Nifty further down.
Resistances on the upper side remain at 24221 (Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) followed by 24389, 24600 and 24876 before Nifty snatches back 25K levels.
Shadow of the candle remains neutral to positive but it can turn neutral or even negative if Mother line resistance comes into play again. The best possibility for Nifty remains if it can get a gap up opening above 24221. This can happen if we get good support from International indices and Gift Nifty tonight. Tomorrow's closing will be very important as it is the first weekly closing for the year.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Review and plan for 2nd January 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing ideas.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Escorts Limited - At long term significant support zoneEscorts has been forming series of Higher Highs and Highs lows indicates strong uptrend.
The higher low has since last 4-5 years has bottomed out the 20 Monthly EMA.
The stock has consistently found support at the moving average and bottomed out near the same.
Currently stock is placed near the same juncture, going ahead if support holds well like in the past, stock could end its corrective phase and resume its prior uptrend.
Possible inverted "Cup with Handle" pattern in Nifty 50Possible further downside in Nifty 50
The chart seems to display an inverted cup and handle pattern, a bearish formation that often signals a potential downside.
The MACD line is crossing below the signal line and approaching the zero line from the positive territory, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
The index is currently testing the lower boundary of a rising channel. A breakdown below this trendline could exacerbate the bearish trend.
If you're trading, consider monitoring the 23,500 level closely. A breakdown below this would likely confirm the bearish pattern and lead to sharp declines.
Review and plan for 31st December 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
Nifty after multiple efforts not able to close above 23900.Nifty again tried to climb up and made a high of 23915 however there was tremendous selling pressure at that level and not only it could not sustain 23900 but also it failed to sustain 23800 or even 23650 levs. Nifty closed at 23644 levels. This is a closing below the Father line (200 days EMA) which was at 23693. This closing is indicative of weakness. Shadow of the candle has turned negative as of now. There is a strong support at 23567. If this support is broken the door way towards 23273 or even 22800 will open up. Relative strength index is 37.40 and RSI support is at 30 and 27.54 levels. Incase of positive closing tomorrow which looks little difficult as of now the resistances will be at 23650, 23693 (Father Line), 23809, 23961 and finally 24159 and finally Mother line (50 Days EMA) Resistance at 24266.
So as of now it looks like we will have a modest close for the year. It has been an year for Nifty which Amplifies with 'what could have been'. Right now we are around 10% of the peak and at 9% yearly gains as compared to yearly closing. Hoping that law of averages catches up next year and we reach new highs next year and close the year robustly.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
#NIFTY50 TRADE SETUP - 30TH DECEMBER !!Nifty 50 Chart Analysis - 1 day Chart VieW
NSE:NIFTY
Nifty 50 Chart Analysis - Detailed Breakdown
Key Observations:
1. Current Price Zone: The Nifty index is trading at 23,832, with the price consolidating near recent lows.
2. Key Resistance Zones:
- 24,197.50: A significant resistance level, aligning with prior price rejections and a potential reversal area.
- 24,069.95: Intermediate resistance that needs to be cleared for bullish continuation.
3. Key Support Zones:
- 23,586.25: A strong support zone where buyers might step in, preventing further downside.
- 23,262.15: A deeper support level, marking the lower boundary of the recent bearish structure.
4. Market Sentiment: The price action indicates uncertainty, with equal probabilities of breakout above the resistance or breakdown below support.
Price Movement Summary:
- Upside Potential: A breakout above 24,197.50 could push the index towards 24,300+ levels. Thiszone has been highlighted in the chart as a bullish target area (marked in red box).
- Downside Risk: If the index breaks below 23,586.25, it could test 23,262.15 or lower, as depictedin the bearish target zone.
Trading Plan:
1. Bullish Plan:
- Entry: Above 24,069.95.
- Target 1: 24,197.50.
- Target 2: 24,300+.
- Stop-Loss: Below 23,961.55 (current pivot zone).
2. Bearish Plan:
- Entry: Below 23,586.25.
- Target 1: 23,536.60.
- Target 2: 23,262.15.
- Stop-Loss: Above 23,832.45.
Summary:
- Nifty is at a critical juncture, with immediate resistance at 24,069.95 and support at 23,586.25.
- Traders should wait for confirmation (breakout or breakdown) before initiating positions.
- Risk management is crucial as the index approaches year-end volatility.
Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.The creator is not a SE-BI-registered advisor. Please consult with a certified professional before making investment decisions.
Review and plan for 30th December 2024Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing trade.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT