Nifty recovers from lows of the day. But not out of danger yet.Nifty as expected suffered heavy losses due to Trump Tariff Tornado which has engulfed the global markets. The good thing which is the silver lining in the cloud was that it recovered from the lows of the day by a lot. The lowest point of today or perhaps the year 2025 so far was 21743 and we closed the day at 22161. Which is about 418 points. However we are not out of the woods yet. We will hopefully see bottom formation later during this week or the next if this lowest point is already not the bottom. The support levels for Nifty remain at 21743, 21289, 20790 and 20320. Resistance for Nifty will be at 22266, 22711, 23083 and 23384. Above 23384 closing Nifty will be back to the bulls territory and we can hope for a recovery towards 24K first and then 25K.
As of now the ball is still in Trump's court as the world sizzles with his Whims and fancies. China is planning a stimulus package for its industry and High level cabinet meeting is going on in India as I write this to counter the effects of Trump Tariff and swift recovery of our economy in addition to minimising the effect of damage.
The best strategy is to wait out the Trump Storm reassess the situation once bottom is formed. Those who have liquidity this is a good oppertunity to go long after bottom fishing.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty50
Trump Tariffs send global Markets into free fall. Trump Tariff announcements has sent the global markets into free fall. The reaction has sent global markets into knee jerk reaction. Global trade will axis will realign because of these actions of US. As per the analysis of many experts the disadvantages to India are limited. There are opportunities galore in sectors like Pharma and Textile etc. The support levels for Nifty currently are at 22338, 21983, 21289, 20095 and finally 19864. The resistances for Nifty are 23037, 23266 and 23894. Long term Resistance for Nifty remain at 24831 and 25K levels.
Short term outlook for Nifty is weak. In the medium term Nifty can remain range bound and Long term outlook for Nifty still remains strong. Investors with Long term outlook can search for Bottom Fishing opportunities in Blue chip stocks which are available at good prices.
Focus should be on India centric themes where products and companies are less dependent on exports specially to US. Having said that it can be a blessing in disguise for sectors like Pharma and Textile. If Indian leadership can turn this obstacle into oppertunity by taking the right steps it can be a curse in disguise. Investors can also look at collecting some ETFs international as well as local as a long term investment.
In cricket matches sometimes losing a toss can be a blessing in disguise this is something like that.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
levels to watch It's clear that analysts, the media, and others who seek the spotlight often try to explain why the markets moved in a certain direction. The irony, however, is that these explanations usually come after the market has already moved, making it obvious that they’re just linking the moves to some news event.
If you pay close attention, you'll realize that technical tools can provide valuable insights ahead of time, helping you predict how the market will behave and where it’s likely headed. For those who’ve read my past articles, you’ll notice I’ve already highlighted key levels for the Nifty index and the potential targets it could reach.
Whether there were tariffs or not, the market was bound to drop. But as I pointed out, the crash is being blamed on the tariffs.
As long as the markets remain below the 24,000 level, we can expect them to target 21,800 and possibly even lower in the coming weeks.
I had booked profits for some of my stocks around the 21,800 level and re-entered short positions at 23,800.
Nifty is holding on above the Father line but by a thin margin.After reaching a weekly high of 23869 Nifty decided to fall back in search of its support zone. Currently it is holding above the Father line in the daily chart which is at 23406. Below the Father line there is Mother line waiting to support Nifty at 23114 in case the weakness seen on Friday persists. We will be in trouble again in case we get a daily or weekly closing below this level. In such a scenario the supports for Nifty will be at 22827, 22294 and 21939. In case the Nifty is able to gain momentum again the resistances it will face will be near 23536, 23671 and 23864. Closing above 23869 will enhance the short term momentum in Nifty which can lead it to 24K+ levels.
To know more about supports, Resistances, investing in stocks based on sector index, Trend lines Parallel Channels, Mother, Father and small Child Theory, Behavioural finance, Fundamental analysis, Technical analysis, Profit booking etc. Read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation. It is as on date one of the highest rated books on Amazon. The paperback version and Kindle can be bought through Amazon. You can also contact me to buy the same.
Things are slightly off balance with shadow of the candle just slightly in favour of bears as of now but Bulls will definitely try and retake the advantage back to their side given a slight opportunity. So the Bull and Bear tussle to continue into April and may escalate given Trump Tarif announcements and upcoming result season.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. No one can guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. There is also chance of bias in our opinion. The supports and resistances indicated are based on data which has a cycle time of being 3 months or older so it is not necessary that it will work. The author or Smart Investment will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
nifty50 directioncurrent scenario suggest price to follow the bearish trend as todays low was broken after a early morning pullback that infuse the liquidity more on the supply side than demand and we saw a big red bar it is likely to come back at the area around 23000 to 22950 with minor intraday pullbacks
Nifty finds a support just above Mother line and Mid-channel.Nifty has today found a good support just above Mother line of the hourly chart and Mid-channel support zone as it bounced from lows of the day near 23412 to close at 23591. Tomorrow being the weekly closing, monthly closing and financial yearly closing it become very important or one of the most important days for investment enthusiasts. A positive closing tomorrow will empower bulls in a lot of ways.
The first support for Nifty will be at 23550. A very strong support zone for Nifty right now remains between 23412 and 23380. This zone includes today's low, mid channel support and mother line support. A closing below 23380 will bring bears back into action who can potentially drag Nifty again to 23145, 23003 or levels below 22801.
Resistance zone for Nifty remains at 23646 today's high, 23670, 23778 and 23900. A closing above 23900 will empower bulls to take Nifty to higher levels of 24046, 24169 or 24378.
As described earlier very important day tomorrow with shadow of the candle being neutral to positive.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Coming back to test its supports.After a proper breakout and a rally which stretched above 1900 points from the March 4 lows, Nifty was clearly overbought on the hourly chart. It might be coming down for one or more of the following reasons:
1) Retesting support from where it can launch fresh move.
2) Correcting the RSI which had gone into the overbought zone.
3) Pressure due to upcoming Monthly and Financial year closing approaching on 28th March 2025.
3) The rally might have fizzled out.
4) Tax harvesting being done by retail investors.
5) Pressure due to upcoming Monthly and Financial
The first 4 options seem to be more likely of the 5 points mentioned above. FII was again on the buying side today so DII and Retail were the major selling parties.
Nifty Supports currently remain at:
1) Strong support zone of 23398 and 23309 (Hourly Mother Line support). This zone also includes the formidable mid channel support.
2) Next support is at 23145.
3) The next critical support for the rally remains at (Father line of the hourly chart) which is at 22959.
4) Final support for the rally will be at Channel bottom which is at 22801.
Nifty Resistance currently are at:
1) 23602 which is now a resistance.
2) 23749 a formidable resistance.
3) Recent rally top at 23869.
4) The zone between 24071 and 24267. (The areas that can be new channel top).
If you want to learn more about Mother, Father and the Small child theory designed by me about the stock market, Parallel Channels, charts, Candlestick analytics, Fundamental analysis, Mother and Father line importance, How to book profits, how to find a balance between Technical and fundamental analysis through Happy Candles Numbers, understand Behavioral Finance and other interesting topics by learning which you can make your money work harder you should read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION which is available on Amazon in paperback and kindle version. E-version of the same is available on Google Play Books too.
More volatility can be expected int the next 2 days due to ongoing Ukraine-US-Russia announcements, Financial year expiry and Trump Tarif updates. Trade with caution.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
levels to watch out In my post from last year, I highlighted the potential for a market top and a correction in both the index and most of the Nifty50 stocks.
My initial target was around 21,800, which the market hit as expected, and we also saw a bounce from those levels, just as I predicted. However, if those levels are breached, the decline could accelerate, bringing the market down to 19,000.
I closed my short positions around those levels and will look to re-enter shorts. A break and sustained close above 24,150 would signal the end of this correction, possibly pushing the market to new highs in the coming weeks.
NIFTY 50 Breakout of Daily Trend Line. What Next?There was a Daily Trend Line Breakout for NIFTY50 and then We saw a Unhealthy up movement. Now the Price is on the extreme of a weekly Supply zone.
There can be a Pull back now till Daily EMA20 @ 23050.
If it takes Support from Daily EMA it should then Try and Break Weekly Supply Zone
Above 24000 NIFTY will be considered in UPTREND again.
Hope for the Best!
Good Trendline Breakout Candle by Nifty. Nifty has given a good break out above Father line (200 Days EMA) at 23399 and Long term trend line. This shows that Bulls have made a comeback and are out of Coma. However Bears can try to disrupt things later in the week. Important resistance zone of Nifty now is between 23708 and 23830. Crossing and closing above 23830 has potential for the rally to inch upwards towards next resistance levels at 24030 and 24215.
The supports for Nifty now remain at 23399, 23109 and 23036. The sectors that are driving the rally are Banking (Both Private and Public sector), Finance, Public Sector Industries. Midcap, Smallcap, Infra, Pharma, Consumer Goods and some other sectors are also trying to catch up. Overall it has been a V shaped recovery. This week's closing will decide if the rally can turn out into full blown Bull run or not. Signs are ominous.
Predicting exact top and exact bottom remains illusive. When People were calling for Doomsday scenario and 20K, 19K levels we have seen Nifty rising 1694 points from 4th March Low of 21964.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. No one can guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. There is also chance of bias in our opinion. The supports and resistances indicated are based on data which has a cycle time of being 3 months or older so it is not necessary that it will work. The author or Smart Investment will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Nifty's Strong Surge: What's Next for the Market?
This week, Nifty surged to 23,350, an impressive 950-point rally from last week’s close. The index hit a high of 23,402 and a low of 22,353. As I highlighted last week, I expected Nifty to trade within a narrow range of 22,850 – 21,950. However, Nifty broke out of this range, shattering the upper limit, and the resulting short covering led to a strong bullish close.
Next Week: A Critical Turning Point
Looking ahead, next week is going to be crucial. Despite the strong move, Nifty is still in a bearish phase on both the weekly and monthly time frames. However, if Nifty manages to retrace slightly to 23,000 and sustain above the 22,900 – 23,000 range, we could see the bulls taking control, pushing the market up toward 23,800/23,850.
On the other hand, if Nifty falls below 22,800, it would signal a breakout failure, which would be bad news for the bulls. In that case, Nifty could potentially drop to 22,000.
March-End Volatility: Be Ready for Both Sides
At the end of March, traders typically start booking their losses to offset gains for the financial year, creating increased volatility. This makes it an exciting time for directional traders, as we could see sharp movements in both directions.
For me, as long as the monthly and weekly charts remain bearish, I am cautious and not ready to turn bullish just yet. However, there are some sectors showing relative strength, and these could offer trading opportunities:
Nifty Energy
Nifty Financial Services
Nifty Metal
Nifty Public Sector Enterprises (PSE)
Keep an eye on stocks from these sectors, as they are currently outperforming others.
S&P 500: Mixed Signals
On the global front, the S&P 500 closed this week at 5,667, barely 30 points above last week’s close. The index has failed to sustain above the DEMA200 level at 5,705, signaling that the bulls are struggling to maintain momentum. A consecutive daily close above this level would help restore confidence among the bulls, potentially targeting 5,850.
However, if S&P 500 drops below 5,600, we could see a faster sell-off, with the recent low of 5,500 likely to come into play. It’s going to be a tense week as we await to see whether the bulls or the bears take control.
In Summary: Prepare for Volatility
Next week promises to be an exciting week for traders, as both domestic and global markets face critical levels. Directional traders should remain flexible, prepared for sharp moves in both directions. Focus on key sectors showing strength and stay vigilant for any breakout or breakdown in the Nifty and S&P 500.
Solid Comeback by Nifty on Weekly Chart. 1 hurdle remaining. Nifty made a solid comeback gaining 4.26% this week. One major hurdle remaining which is 23403. If Nifty can close above this level the next resistances will be at 23809, 24030, 24215, 24443, 24667 and 24873 before Nifty can regain 25K levels. The supports for Nifty on the lower side if it is not able to cross the major hurdle at 23403 will be 23109, 22789, 22334 and 21974. As of now the Bulls have done well turning the shadow of the candle positive for the next week.
However there is also a small possibility of 23403 becoming Achilles heel for the rampant Bulls. Weekly RSI is at 48.89 which means it has entered the bullish territory. MACD or the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence has not fully moved into the Bullish territory but it has certainly taken the turn towards the convergence.
So overall it was a great week for bulls after a long time but one final hurdle of the Bear 'Chakravyuh' remains to be conquered.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Make or Break 3 key Resistances Approaching. Nifty saw 3 good days of recovery. Now the real test begins as we are approaching the 3 big daddy resistances.
1) R1 Mother line Resistance (50 days EMA) 22988.
2) R2 Long Term Trend line Resistance 23237.
3) R3 Father Line Resistance 23399.
If these 3 are crossed the Nifty has potential to hit 23809 in the medium to short term.
If Nifty rally does not have steam it can again fall back to the support levels at 22638, 22334 or even 21974.
IT has not contributed to the current rally Infact it has remained laggard. RIL has not contributed. HDFC has remained range bond. If some IT counters or Heavy Weights like RIL or HDFC join the rally we can see Nifty flying otherwise there is a potential for this rally to fizzle out again. Things are in balance right now. Shadow of the candle neutral as I write this. Very important closing weekly closing awaits us on Friday.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Excellent Break Out by Nifty. Will the momentum continue?Today the Nifty had a good leap after a lot of consolidation. The key question is will the momentum continue or FIIs will again take this opportunity to book profit. Today FII is on the net buying side after a long time. If the buying continues or even if FII remains neutral there is a good chance that we can see upside from here.
Key resistances for Nifty remain at 22857, 22921 and 22985. Above 22985 Nifty can gain more strength and may try to regain the levels of 23044, 23147 and 23249. 23404 as of now remains a mega resistance which is also the 200 days EMA of 200 days Father line. This zone as of now is little difficult to cross. Closing above 23404 can give might boost to the Bulls and a new Bull run can begin post closing above this point. Supports for Nifty at this juncture remain at 22726 (200 hours EMA or Father line of Hourly chart), 22594 and 22543. A closing below 22543 which is the Mother line support of the hourly chart or the (50 Hours EMA).
As there are small signs of reversal on the cards. It is a good time to read my book the Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation. This is one of the highest rated books on Amazon. This book will teach you Behavioural Finance, Fundamental Analysis and Technical analysis. Every Bull Rally has a top and every Bear run has a bottom. If you can identify them. If you can understand the risk reward ratio. If you can understand the profit booking points, entry points the Mother, Father and the Small Child theory. The magic of Mother and Father lines. There is a lot of money to be made in the stock market. You need to learn, study and form your own strategy. If you want a ready made strategy then this book offers Happy Candles Number Strategy. All these things will help you in creating generational wealth. Do read my book and evolve into a Magnificent Investor and a Wealth creator. The Book is only priced at Rs.349 go ahead grab your copy.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
$NIFTY : Tested 22000 fib retracement. RSI Oversold. Long $NIFTYIn 2024 the light bearer of the developing markets was India and its index $NIFTY. It closely beat the S&P 500 in 2024. But 2025 has not been good for $NIFTY. The rotation trade sell India and buy Chinna by the large institutional investors has put immense pressure on the Indian indexes. The index almost fell into the bear market by collapsing close to 20%.
If you have been watching my blog space I made a case in point on 22 Feb 2025 that there is still some downside left in the chart. Since then, we have fallen another 2 % and sitting just at the bottom of the Upward sloping Fib Retracement channel drawn by joining the potential tops of the NSE:NIFTY weekly chart. The chart pattern on 22 Feb 2025 clearly indicated that we can touch the lows around 22000. We touched the lows of 22032 on 28 Feb 2025. Since the we have gained some lost ground.
Final verdict: Possible retest the 22000 levels and then go long from there on $NIFTY.
Nifty holding above Hourly Mother line a good signalNifty holding above 50 Hours EMA or Mother line in the hourly chart is a good signal for the market if it holds above 22464 then there is a chance of further recovery. The supports for Nifty remain at 22464 (strong Mother line support), 22368 (Another strong trend line support), 22311 and 22205. If the support at 22205 is broken Nifty can go in a jiffy to 21976 or below. In case we get a closing above 22591 Nifty will become stronger and can jump to 22678 or 22722 levels. 22722 is a strong 200 Hours EMA or Father line resistance. A closing above 22722 can take us to next historical resistance levels of 22813, 22921, 23044, 23147 and 23249 levels. Closing above 23249 has potential to bring Bulls back out of ICU and Take Nifty further up.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty near important support holding it is key for progress. Nifty this week tried to consolidate and in the process lot a lost of ground covered last week. Holding the support level of 22314 is the key to move forward. If this major support is broken Nifty may again fall to the strong Bear zone of 21975, 21782 or even 21285 levels. If 22314 support is held the future resistances can be 22531, 22668 and 22842. If these resistances are crossed we will reach Mother and Father line resistances at 23018 and 23419. A monthly closing above Father line resistance that is 23419 can bring Bulls back into action. Shadow of the candle is neutral with slightly positive tinge.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Faces Range-Bound Phase,brace for volatility till Mid ApriNifty ended the week at 22,397, marking a decline of about 150 points from the previous week's close. The index reached a high of 22,676 and a low of 22,314, trading in a narrow range of just 360 points. This suggests that next week, Nifty could experience a wider range, with potential moves between 22,850 and 21,950 .
Despite the weakness seen on both the monthly and weekly charts, Nifty remains range-bound as long as the critical support level of 21,950 holds. However, with the end of March approaching, many investors will likely start booking losses to offset any gains they’ve made this year. This could trigger another round of selling pressure in the market. As a result, we may not see a meaningful recovery until mid-April, meaning we could face one more month of market volatility and pessimism.
It's crucial to keep cash ready to invest in fundamentally strong stocks during this period of market uncertainty. On the global front, the S&P 500 closed the week at 5,521, slipping below its 50-week exponential moving average (50WEMA). It seems likely that the index will test the 100-week exponential moving average (100WEMA) at around 5,240–5,250, which is about 4% below its current level. If this happens, we could see additional pressure across global markets, including India.
In summary, brace yourself for another month of market negativity before any potential relief arrives. Stay cautious and focus on high-quality stocks for the long term.
Nifty 50 Forecast by NEoWaveOn the 2H timeframe, the recent price correction appears to be a diametric one. When a Diametric Zigzag forms, it usually forms a combination pattern, so we consider 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1
Diametric wave-(g) ends in the range of 21050 – 21473 or even higher and the upward movement begins
Scenario 2
a- Wave-(g) continues to the range of 21050 – 21473 and then, in order to complete the time correction, a combination pattern of Diametric – X – Triangle is formed on the support range.
b- Wave-(g) continues to the range of 21050 – 21473 and then a small X wave is formed, but the price crosses the support range of 21050 – 21473, in this case, the combination pattern will still form, but the price can decrease to 19993 or the price range of 18993-18744 according to the second pattern.
The second scenario is more likely to form.
Smart recovery by Nifty after opening Gap-Down. Nifty opened Gap down after a sell-off in global markets in general and US markets in particular. Nasdaq tanked 3.81%, Dow cracked 2.08% and S&P 500 cracked 2.70% last night. Nifty however has closed 37 points in positive showing some strength. The recovery from day's low was 183.2 which sounds like a very powerful comeback.
However we are not out of the woods till we close above few important resistances which are in front of Nifty. Immediate resistances are at 22531, 22668 and 22842. Once we close above 22842 there are Mother and Father Line resistances at 23067 and 23439. Closing above 23439 is the key for Bulls to make a comeback. Those who are not aware about my Mother, Father and Small Child theory of stock market can read my book the Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation. The book is one of the highest rated books on Amazon in the category. The book teaches Behavioural finance, Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis. Many consider this book as hand book of investment. Anyone who reads it will benefit and take something home some valuable learning whether he is a newbie or a seasoned investor.
Supports for Nifty will be near 22314, 21975, 21782 and 21281. If Nifty can carry forward today's momentum into tomorrow there is a chance of further recovery. Shadow of the candle despite today's smart recovery is absolutely neutral. Market will be closed on Friday for Dhuleti so next 2 days are very crucial for Bulls. Mother and Father lines are far away but bulls will be very happy to get a closing above 22668 if not 22842 this week. Bears will try to drag the market below today's low of 22314. So it can be a tussle of the highest order in store for the next 2 days.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Outlook: Bulls vs Bears - Key Levels to Watch Next Week
Nifty closed at 22,552, up by around 330 points from last week's close, hitting a high of 22,633 and a low of 21,964. As anticipated last week, the index found support at the 100-day WEMA around the 22,000 level, triggering a bounce. Looking ahead, next week is crucial, as the market is at a crossroads. While the monthly and weekly timeframes continue to show bearish signals, the bulls are actively trying to take control and push the market higher.
Here’s what to watch for:
Key Resistance: If Nifty manages to stay above 22,800 next week, we could see a short-covering rally, driving the index towards the 23,000 to 23,050 range. However, beyond these levels, the bulls may face significant challenges in taking the market further up.
Critical Support: On the downside, 22,000 remains a major support level. A break below this level could signal a fresh downtrend, possibly leading the market towards 19,500.
Next week is expected to be volatile, given the short trading week due to the holiday on Friday. This could lead to profit-taking from long traders, which might put downward pressure on the market. Keep a close eye on this week's low of 21,964. If it breaks, the market may open up to sharp declines.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has found support at the 50-day WEMA and closed at 5,770. On the weekly timeframe, it looks like the S&P 500 is forming a W pattern, with potential upside towards 5,850-5,890 next week before any pullback. If the S&P rallies as expected, it could provide a boost to Indian markets as well.
Next week is set to be decisive. Will the bulls overcome the bearish pressure, or will the market succumb to further selling? Stay alert, as the battle between bulls and bears continues.