Will Reverse Head & Shoulders Breakout be a success? Market Outlook:
Nifty is on a roll and taking all the negative news under it’s wings and rising like a phoenix. The Mother of all bi-monthly economic events FOMC meet and decision on US Federal Reserve rate hike/Pause and US Fed chief Powell’s comments about the future rate decisions awaits to test its resolve. A positive looking Reverse Head & Shoulder like structure is formed on Nifty Chart as you can see below. We will know later this week if the Reverse Head and Shoulder Breakout is successful or not.
One thing is for sure that corrections are temporary but Indian economy, it’s strength remains intact. It may take time but Indian Indices do bounce back. Long Term Investors should trust the story of India and continue to invest for long term irrespective of whether the current Breakout or current rally sustains or not.
Nifty Supports From Current Level: 18124, 17966, 17888 and 17632.
Nifty Resistances from Current Level: 18180, 18252 and 18441.
Nifty50
NIFTY H&S Pattern So Ready toward 15000 ?NIFTY50 Chart Analysis: Head & Shoulder Pattern in HTF Points to Possible Downside Move
As of May 2, 2023, the ₹NIFTY is currently trading at ₹18150. However, a chart analysis of the higher time frame (HTF), particularly the 3-day and weekly charts, shows a head and shoulder (H&S) pattern forming, which could indicate a potential downside move soon.
Left Shoulder and Head Already Formed
The left shoulder has already formed, and the head has also formed, indicating a possible top. The chart analysis is now waiting for the formation of the right shoulder. If the right shoulder forms as expected, the ₹NIFTY will likely test the ₹17000 level again, which is the neck line support for the H&S pattern.
Neck Line Support and Major Support Level
The neck line support at ₹17000 is a crucial level to watch. If the ₹NIFTY breaks down this level, it could potentially see the ₹15000 level in the mid-term, which is a major support level in the higher time frame.
Key Levels to Consider
The support levels to watch out for are ₹17000 and ₹15000, while the resistance levels are ₹18250 and ₹18800.
Invalidation of the H&S Pattern
The H&S pattern will be invalidated if any higher time frame candle closes above ₹18250, indicating an inverse H&S pattern.
Conclusion and Takeaways
Based on the chart analysis, there is a possibility of a downside move soon in the ₹NIFTY. However, it is crucial to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Keep an eye on the neck line support at ₹17000 and the major support level at ₹15000. It is also essential to pay attention to the resistance levels at ₹18250 and ₹18800. Always remember to trade wisely and never blindly follow any chart analysis or predictions.
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Strength of the rally to be tested next week.After the much awaited break out of Nifty which was playing in the range between 17900 and 16900 it is the time for the strength of the rally to be tested. Nifty has to battle some important resistance next week to sail further upwards. All eyes will also be on FOMC meet of US Federal Reserves on 2nd May 2023. I don't want to sound pessimistic but everyone should note that this event has potential to become a party spoiler. (Looks less likely though as rally has crossed some important resistances but you can never really decouple your economy from what happens globally).
Important Supports For The next week: 17973, 17878, 17779 and finally the strong buffer zone of 17473 to 17687. (This buffer zone has multiple supports including 50 Weeks EMA, 50 and 200 days EMA in addition to some other supports).
Important Resistances: 18140, 18268, 18397 and 18481.
Proper Clean Breakout For NiftyWe can expect BOOM BOOM BOOM tomorrow or in the coming week. It is a clean Breakout for NIFTY50. Support Levels are at 17779, 17687 and mega support of 17541 to 17584 zone. On the upper side the resistance are near 17986, 18042, 18272 and 18466. Let us see how far the Fizz can take us tomorrow. More importantly can the Fizz last over the next week too?
Precision of the chart. Look at the yellow circle. The blue line is exactly where the Nifty stopped. That is a strong resistance crossing this resistance we may face next resistance at 17863. Supports on the lower side are the same are 17552 and 17532. If 17532 is broken we may see the levels of 17467 and 17198. For Now everything looks good. Above 17863 we will see resistance near 18092 and 18360. (View remains the same). Nifty following this chart.
Morning Mantra - 25th April 2023Dear All,
It was an amazing day yesterday . Wherein, we had observed that after a gap up opening of 17707, Nifty had made a day’s low of 17612 and had thereafter made a sharp recovery from that level.
Overall on the hourly chart of Nifty, we can now observe a head & shoulder formation . Wherein, the level of 17800 can be considered as its neckline . Above this level of 17800, we can see Nifty for the level 18134 approx in the near term.
Until the time we witness a closing of above 17800, we are still with our words to keep following the Cherry-picking strategy with the stop loss of 17300 , as of now.
Besides, the conservative players can go for fresh accumulation only after witnessing a beautiful and a strong closing of above 17800 .
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Very buoyant forces keeping Nifty afloat and going higher. Nifty on the back of momentum in Small and Mid cap stocks combined with some good results is taking Nifty higher after a week of consolidation. If 17863 is taken down we may see the rally continue to upto 18092, 18360 and above. 17532 to 17552 are strong supports as the levels are 50 and 200 days EMA. If 17532 us broken the other supports are near 17467 and 17198 levels.
Nifty at a critical support. 50 and 200 days EMA have been providing a critical support to Nifty all throughout the week. 50 and 200 days EMA stand at 17544 and 17530 respectively. This zone has provided support to the Nifty almost on all days of the week proving that it is the most critical support. If this support is broken Next support for Nifty will be only at 17406 and further down at 17204 levels. However if Nifty is assured of its support the chances are that it can rise from here. The resistances that it can meet on the way up are near 17805, 17869, 18092 and 18261 levels.
Nifty with positive bias poised just below 50 Hours EMA. With the result from Big Daddy of Index Reliance tomorrow Nifty is again staring at the cross roads but with a positive bias. Reliance has a weightage of 10.54% in the index and a good result can make the day or week for the Nifty or break it. Nifty is poised just below 50 hours EMA which is 17630 so the line will act as a resistance. If we get a gap up opening above it and the gap sustains it will be a perfect scenario for the rally to go forward. Resistances at 17630, 17691 and 17772. Supports for Nifty are at 17593 and 17578. Below this level Nifty can fall to 17488 levels. (This should be a major support). If this is broken the current rally may fizzle out.
Channel Breakout of the trend is being tested. Recently Nifty on 10th April gave a channel Breakout. Since the negative channel upper limit was respected in last 4 months or so this breakout was a major first step towards up trend. Since it was a major breakout Nifty is trying to look back and test it's support zone before it can fly ahead. Major supports zones from where Nifty can re start the up trend again are:
Support Zone 1: 17618 (current level) to 17528.
Support Zone 2: 17424 to 17267. (A close below 17267 will make this current Channel Break out that Nifty saw on 10th April 2023 a failure).
Resistance Zone 1: 17690 to 17856.
Resistance Zone 2: 17856 to 18004.