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Nifty50pricetrendanalysis

Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 7-11th Oct 2024The Indian stock market had a volatile week, primarily driven by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,014, down 1,170 points from the previous week's close. The index made a high of 26,134 and a low of 24,966 during the week. For the coming week, the expected range for the Nifty 50 is 25,600 to 24,400 . A breach of these levels could lead to further volatility. The crucial support level is at 24,450, which is the WEMA21 support. If the index breaks below this level, a correction towards 23,000 is possible. On the other hand, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,751, forming a bullish hammer candle, which is a positive sign for the US market. If the S&P 500 can sustain above 5,800 next week, it could rise further to 5,820, 5,899, or even 6,012. A strong performance in the US market could help Indian markets recover. Overall, the market outlook for the coming week remains uncertain due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, there is a possibility of a bounce in the market, especially if the S&P 500 continues to show strength.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 30-4th Oct 2024#Nifty50 surged to a new all-time high of 26178, closing the week up nearly 400 points. The index oscillated between 26400 and 25200, as predicted. For the upcoming week, I anticipate a trading range of 26750 to 25800 . A breakout beyond these levels could trigger significant price movements. Fibonacci support lies at 25800; if breached, 25600 becomes a critical level to watch. A puzzling question remains: Why are many stocks in investor portfolios underperforming despite the Nifty's record highs? Typically, stocks require catalysts or news to rally, which are currently scarce. If the Nifty reaches 27000, large-cap stocks could outperform mid-cap and small-cap equities. Niftybees or ETFs might also be attractive options to capitalize on the Nifty's upward momentum. The S&P 500 also hit a new weekly high at 5738 and appears poised for further gains. Surpassing the 5767 high could propel the S&P 500 to 5821, 5899, or even the significant level of 6013. This positive momentum in the U.S. market could also benefit the Indian market.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
NIfty50 outlook for upcoming week 16-20th Sept 2024#nifty50 Stellar Climb: The Nifty index has reached a new all-time high weekly close of 25,356, surpassing its previous peak of 25,433. Despite a bearish engulfing candle last week, the Nifty managed to rebound, thanks to a strong performance in the US market. As predicted, the index remained within the anticipated range of 25,500 to 24,150. Looking Ahead: For the coming week, I expect the Nifty to remain within the range of 25,810 to 24,750 . If the index can successfully break above the crucial Fibonacci level of 25,810 , it could potentially test 25,965 , although this may be challenging. However, below 24,750, the DEMA50 support level at 24,624 could act as a strong demand zone. Global Market Outlook: The S&P 500 rallied this week, driven by better-than-expected inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts. The index closed at 5,626, just below the important Fibonacci level of 5,637. On a weekly timeframe, the S&P 500 is showing signs of forming a W pattern. If it can close above 5,637 for consecutive days, it could open the door to a significant uptrend, targeting 5,806, 5,900, and even 6,005. Such a move could propel the global market, including India's Nifty, towards new all-time high levels of 25,800 or 25,950. However, if the S&P 500 falls below 5,535, there could be selling pressure, leading to potential support levels at 5,493, 5,390, and 5,270.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
How the FII-DII Tug of War Could Shape Nifty 50's Future Good Afternoon TV Family, Summary: The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, global equity markets could experience a shake-up. In this idea, we delve into how a U.S. rate cut might trigger foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to rethink their allocations and the crucial role domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail flows will play in stabilizing Nifty 50. Let's explore the dynamic between FII outflows and DII buying, and how this tug-of-war could impact the Indian equity market. Lets Deep Dive : 1. Jackson Hole Meeting and Rate Cuts: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25-50 basis points, it would signal an accommodative stance aimed at supporting economic growth or preventing a slowdown. Lower interest rates generally boost equity markets because they reduce the cost of borrowing and make risk assets like stocks more attractive compared to bonds or cash. US Equities: A rate cut would likely be bullish for the US stock market. Lower rates improve corporate profitability, make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, and reduce the yield on bonds, encouraging investors to shift to equities. This should lift major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. 2. Impact on Global Markets: Global Spillover: A strong rally in the US equity markets often leads to positive sentiment spilling over to global markets. Optimism in the US can create a "risk-on" environment where investors globally are more willing to take risks in equities and emerging markets. Currency Impact: A rate cut might weaken the US dollar, which could benefit emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. A weaker dollar generally supports emerging markets by making their debt cheaper to service and boosting exports. 3. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) Impact: Capital Reallocation: A rate cut in the US could lead to a reallocation of capital by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). If US markets become more attractive due to lower rates and expectations of better returns, FIIs could redirect funds from emerging markets like India back to the US. Risk of FII Outflows: Historically, when the US markets become more attractive, FIIs tend to pull capital from riskier emerging markets to take advantage of the safer and more promising environment at home. If FIIs reduce their exposure to India, we could see short-term pressure on Indian equity markets. FIIs vs. DIIs: The Balancing Act FII Dominance: Historically, FIIs have had a significant impact on Indian equity markets due to their sheer scale. Large-scale selling by FIIs can cause downward pressure on the markets, and in periods of uncertainty or risk aversion, they often pull out capital quickly. DII Counterbalance: On the flip side, DIIs (including mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) have grown stronger in recent years. While they may not match the FIIs in volume, their growing influence means they can absorb some of the selling pressure. In fact, DIIs often act as stabilizers when FIIs sell aggressively. 4. DII Firepower and Their Role DIIs’ Buying Capacity: DIIs have been steadily increasing their presence in the market, supported by growing retail participation via mutual funds and SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflows. Monthly SIP inflows in India have consistently been hitting record levels (e.g., over ₹15,000 crores). This gives DIIs a significant pool of funds to deploy, which can offset some of the FII selling pressure. Insurance and Pension Funds: In addition to mutual funds, large domestic players like insurance companies (e.g., LIC) and pension funds have deep pockets and tend to be more long-term focused. They can step in to support the market during periods of FII outflows. 5. FII Selling vs. DII Buying: Historical Context In recent years, there have been several instances where FIIs have sold heavily, but DIIs have stepped in to absorb some of the selling pressure. For example, during periods of global uncertainty (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic or geopolitical tensions), DIIs have been active buyers when FIIs were selling. However, the degree of balance between FIIs and DIIs is critical. If FIIs engage in a prolonged or aggressive selling spree, it could overwhelm the DIIs' ability to absorb all the outflows. In such cases, the market could still see a downward correction, albeit potentially less severe due to DII intervention. 6. Retail Investor Participation Growing Retail Participation: While individual retail investors may not have the power to single-handedly stop a market decline, their cumulative impact through mutual funds and SIPs is growing significantly. Retail participation has become more pronounced in the Indian markets, with a steady flow of domestic savings being funneled into equities. SIP Flows: Monthly SIP inflows have created a steady and predictable stream of liquidity for the market. Even during periods of FII outflows, DIIs can rely on these inflows to buy equities and stabilize the market. While this might not entirely counterbalance FII selling, it provides consistent support and can cushion downside moves. 7. Role of Mutual Funds and SIPs Mutual Funds and SIPs: With SIP flows providing a reliable source of funds, DIIs can manage their buying strategies more effectively, especially during periods of volatility. This has been one of the reasons why the Indian markets have remained relatively resilient in the face of global shocks. SIP Inflows’ Resilience: SIPs are typically long-term, driven by retail investors who are less likely to pull out during short-term corrections. This means that mutual funds have a steady flow of capital to deploy, which can help support the market over time, even if FIIs sell off in the short term. 8. Indian Market Reaction: Short-Term Negative Impact: The Indian markets might see a negative reaction in the short term, particularly due to potential FII outflows and global investors reallocating capital to US equities(not a must but a possibility). However, this will depend on the scale of the US market rally and how much FII sentiment is swayed by the rate cut. Longer-Term Outlook: In the longer term, India remains a strong emerging market story with robust growth potential. So, while there might be short-term downside due to FII outflows, domestic factors like earnings growth, reforms, and economic resilience could offset the impact over time. 9. Potential Limits of DII Support Magnitude of FII Selling: If FIIs engage in heavy and sustained selling (e.g., billions of dollars in outflows), DIIs may not have the capacity to fully absorb the impact. In such cases, the market would likely see a correction, and DIIs would focus on selectively buying stocks where they see long-term value. Global and Domestic Factors: DIIs’ ability to support the market also depends on the broader domestic economy, liquidity conditions, and global sentiment. For instance, if global markets are in turmoil, even DIIs might become more cautious, limiting their ability to counteract FII outflows. 10.Other Considerations: Sectoral Impact: Some sectors in the Indian market, such as IT services, might benefit from a weaker US dollar and stronger US growth prospects, while rate-sensitive sectors (like financials) could face pressure from FII outflows. Central Bank Response: The RBI may also factor in the Fed’s decision when considering its own interest rate policy. If FIIs withdraw capital, the RBI might need to adjust its stance to support the rupee and maintain financial stability. 11. Sectoral Impact Different sectors of the Indian economy could experience varying effects based on these developments: IT Sector: Indian IT companies could benefit from a weaker dollar, as a strong US growth outlook would drive demand for IT services and outsourcing, positively impacting the sector's earnings. Financials: Rate-sensitive sectors like financials could face short-term pressure due to FII outflows, but DIIs and retail inflows could stabilize them in the medium to long term. Export-Oriented Sectors: Export-driven sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automobiles could see a boost from a stronger rupee and weaker dollar, enhancing their competitiveness globally. Summary & Conclusion: A. Short-Term Risk: A Fed rate cut could lead to short-term selling pressure on Indian markets due to FII outflows, as investors chase better returns in the US. B. Global Risk-On Sentiment: However, if global sentiment improves significantly, emerging markets might benefit indirectly from stronger global growth prospects. C. Domestic Strength: India’s strong domestic fundamentals should eventually provide support, even if there is an initial dip due to global factors. D. DIIs can provide significant support to the market and act as a counterbalance to FII selling, especially due to consistent retail inflows via mutual funds and SIPs. However, the extent to which DIIs can offset FII outflows depends on the magnitude of the FII selling. In a severe selling spree, even strong DII buying might not fully prevent a market downturn, though it could cushion the impact. E. Retail investors, through mutual funds and SIPs, have become a crucial source of liquidity, helping DIIs stabilize the market, but the balance between FII outflows and DII inflows is key to determining market direction. Thank you for reading, Now let's just brush up on technical's : 1. If the index moves up which is only possible above 24900 zone then we have : 25460 to 25560 which is immediate upside levels, above that it might move further upside as per chart around 29K. 2. If breaks down and starts declining then : 24350 to 24400 zone should be a immediate support, if breaks below then 24180,23630,23180 worst case will be 22730. Let's see how this all works out. Once again Thank you for taking your time to read. If I am wrong any where please do leave a comment to correct me. PS: The above idea and thoughts are purely educational and do not consist of any financial advise or investment. Please do consult your financial advisor for any investment.
NSE:NIFTY
by Tron029
2
Nifty 50 Index (NSE: NIFTY) AnalysisBased on the daily chart for the Nifty 50 Index (NSE: NIFTY), here is the summary and analysis: Key Levels: - Current Price: 22,488.65 - 50% Retracement Level: 22,458.10 - 61.8% Retracement Level: 22,324.60 - Target Price: 23,600 Chart Analysis: 1. Upward Trend: The chart shows an overall upward trend, with the index making higher highs and higher lows. 2. Retracement: The index is currently in a retracement phase, falling from its recent high of 22,705.75. The price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is approaching the 61.8% level. 3. Support Zone: The blue shaded area represents a significant support zone between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. This zone could provide strong support and potential for a rebound. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: - If the index finds support at the 50% or 61.8% retracement levels and rebounds, it could continue its upward trend towards the target price of 23,600. - Confirmation of a bullish trend would come with a strong bounce from the support zone and a move back above the previous high of 22,705.75. 2. Bearish Scenario: - If the index breaks below the 61.8% retracement level, it could indicate a deeper correction. - A break below this level could lead to further downside, possibly testing lower support levels not shown in the current chart. Trading Strategy: 1. Watch for Support: Monitor the price action closely around the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. Look for signs of a reversal or strong buying interest in this zone. 2. Buy Position: Consider entering a long position if the index shows a strong bounce from the support zone with increasing volume and bullish candlestick patterns. 3. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement level to manage risk in case of a further decline. 4. Target: Aim for the target price of 23,600 for the long position. Conclusion: - The Nifty 50 Index is currently in a retracement phase within an overall uptrend. The 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are critical support zones to watch. A strong rebound from this zone could lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the target of 23,600. Conversely, a break below the 61.8% level could signal further downside. Monitoring the price action and volume around these key levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by The90sTraderOfficial
Technical Analysis: NIFTY 50's Recent Shifts and Future ProspectHello, TradingView community! Today, we're diving into a detailed technical analysis of the NSE:NIFTY index, which has shown some interesting movements lately. We'll break down the technical signals, look at the potential implications, and discuss what to watch out for in the coming days. 🔍 Overview of Recent Trends The NIFTY 50 has been following a well-defined upward trend channel over the past several months, making consistent gains each time it hit the upper boundary. However, recent patterns suggest a change in dynamics, which we need to scrutinize closely. 🔁 Current Technical Setup Most notably, the NIFTY 50 recently deviated from its usual pattern by not reaching the upper boundary of the trend channel before reversing its direction towards the lower boundary. This could be an early sign of weakening bullish momentum. 📉 Significance of the Double Top Pattern The formation of a potential Double top, a classic bearish reversal indicator, adds weight to concerns about a bearish shift. While this pattern is not yet confirmed—since we haven't seen a definitive breakdown below the neckline—it's a development that warrants attention. 📊 Intersection with the 100-day SMA The recent drop of -1.5% in the NIFTY 50 brought it down to the lower boundary of the trend channel, which coincidentally aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This SMA has historically served as a strong support level, often triggering rebounds. 🔄 Potential Outcomes Bounce Back: If the 100-day SMA and the lower boundary of the trend channel hold up, there's potential for the NIFTY 50 to rebound towards the mid or upper boundary of the channel. Bearish Reversal: A decisive close below the 100-day SMA & Neckline of Double Top could indicate a more significant Bearish Trend or the start of a consolidation phase. 🌐 Broader Market Context Quarterly Earnings: The index is feeling the pressure from non-impressive Q4 results for 2024. Lackluster corporate earnings can dampen investor sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of stock valuations. Volatility Index Rise: The NSE:INDIAVIX , which measures market volatility, is on the rise. This indicates increased uncertainty among investors, as they price in a higher potential for market swings. FII Activity: There has been significant selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), contributing to downward pressure on the index. FII flows are crucial as they represent substantial investment volumes and can influence market direction. US Federal Reserve's Stance: The hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve, signaling potential interest rate hikes, is also a critical factor. Higher US interest rates can lead to capital outflows from emerging markets like India as investors seek higher returns in US assets. These points illustrate how external factors are intricately linked with the movements of the NIFTY 50 index and should be considered when analyzing its future direction. 📈 Trading Strategy Recommendations For those actively monitoring the NIFTY 50, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the 100-day SMA and the lower trend line of uptrend channel. These areas serve as critical junctures that could determine the market's short-term direction. "In the world of Market, it's not about how much you know, but how well you understand what you know and how you apply it in uncertain times." To conclude, while the NIFTY 50 presents an intriguing technical setup, traders should proceed with caution given the current uncertainties and the index's recent behavior. This analysis is intended to enhance understanding and encourage informed decision-making. Keep watching these indicators and adapt your strategies accordingly to navigate through these potentially choppy waters. Lastly, thank you for your support, your likes, Follows & comments. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.
NSE:NIFTY
by AfnanTAjuddin
NIFTY 50 Analysis For Feb 23rd!Hello Traders, Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of NIFTY 50 For Feb 23rd, There Are Total of 3 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 2 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 3 Imbalance Zones! The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day! The Blue Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The NIFTY 50 For That Day. Note : Those Levels Are For That Particular Day Only. Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational. We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses. I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement. Thank You.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by SuccessStrikes
1
NIFTY 50 Analysis For Feb 22nd!Hello Traders, Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of NIFTY 50 For Feb 22nd, There Are Total of 3 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 2 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 5 Imbalance Zones! The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day! The Blue And Red Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The NIFTY 50 For That Day. Note : Those Levels Are For That Particular Day Only. Please Note That The Only Purpose of The Information On This Page is Purely Educational. We Are Not Registered with SEBI; Therefore, Before Making Any Financial Decisions OR Investing, Please Consult with A SEBI-Qualified Financial Advisor. We Don't Have Any Responsibility For Your Profits OR Losses. I Would Welcome Your Participation And Support in the Form of Likes, Comments, And Follow us to Offer Some Encouragement. Thank You.
NSE:NIFTY
by SuccessStrikes
1
Nifty 50: October week 1 Weekly Market SetupWeekly Review Nifty 50 declined by 0.18% last week to close at 19,638. The major meltdown was seen on last Thursday (weekly expiry) where the index lost close to 200 points where it touched its key support around 19,495 as per our expectations too. While broadly market is now showing mixed sentiments and is largely looking to be a stock specific trading only. Week Ahead:, On Daily charts, technical indicators shows bulls giving a good fght to pick up pace for what all the gains were lost in previous few weeks. Momentum is starting to build u but higher levels at 19,740-795 remains key hurdle to continue the larger rally. On the lower side 19495, 19438 and 19376 are important support to hold on. From levels perspective, I believe it has been quite a downfall and we should see some uptick or a sideway markets now but to say further the outlook would completely depend on how Q2 numbers starts rolling out and what holds post RBI’s MPC meeting results. *Disclaimer*: I am not SEBI registered analyst and hence the above market outlook is for only educational study and research purposes only. In no way do I endorse this opinion to take a trade or for any investments in markets in any form by any Participant. Be a responsible investor with proper risk management and keep learning as a true focus.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by chandakpulkit
NIFTY GOING UP to 19000 BUCKLE UP FOR THE RIDE!!! Price has started making Higher Highs which denotes an Uptrend, currently Price is giving a correction in the downward direction which again sigifies the Impulse Wave is in Uptrend and hence Uptrend is confirm. Price has this Fresh Demand formed in The Daily chart which synchronises with the Weekly Demand as well, hence this is a Trade Zone in Daily with a minumum Risk 1 against the Reward of 13 makes this a favourable Reward to Risk ratio Trade, The Target is derived as per the Fibonacci Extension considering the Wave 3 @ 1.618 Level which is Price 18948.15. Cheers !!! Enjoy the Ride!!!
NSE:NIFTYLong
by WavesandZones
Nifty hourly Elliott wave analysisThe move from 17348 is corrective. There is no way an elliottician calls it an impulse move going on. So, the move should be correct 100% to justify it as a corrective move. There are a few corrective moves that don't retrace fully, eg. the legs of a triangle. But this move seems like it should correct 100% soon. A good elliottician is not the one who always has counts, but the one who give counts when there is most and more probability and possibility.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by tradersmantra
NIFTY 50 - Trend Lines (8th Dec Exp)NIFTY 50 - If Candle Breaks & sustains Green line (above / Below) then the target is next green line - If Candle Breaks & sustains Blue line (above / Below) then the target is next Blue line Market Range High Range: 18780 - 18920 Mid Range: 18640 - 18780 Low Range: 18500 - 18640 caution: cannot guarantee the accuracy of the data & it's presentation stock market investments are risky by nature so we are not responsible for your losses or profits, and your returns will depend on your own personal trading methods only.
NSE:NIFTY
by Astoundcore
NIFTY 50, WAVES(THIS MONTH)!!although nifty 50 has crossed 18000 previously in its 3rd wave, it will reach its new all time high in 5th wave. nifty 50 is following the waves very greatly. i had previously drawn waves for bull run and updated you till 3rd wave. now here's an update for the 5th one. i have explained each and every trend line , bull run in my previous nifty 50 analysis, and i will link it below, you will understand my analysis more understandingly, after reading the description of those analysis. nifty is already in a bull run, this bull run is carried in 5 waves, and now we are in the last wave of it. let see what happens after that...
NSE:NIFTYLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
#Nifty During Market count change FOMC meeting rate hike 75bps is what market expected, a rally to complete and make a local top? I think monthly wave 4 is finished here at almost 50% retracement - looks fishy? For now wave count has changed. You have to follow rules in this market and rules like HA candle, Trigger line will always work. Always use stop loss. The entire rally suggested that weekly green ABC is done. I will wait for price to fall below previous green candle, or I will need a red candle on Heikinashi chart to start a confirmation of down trend. Till then scalpi opportunities continue.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Falcon_Trader_1
2