#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 11-15th Nov 2024Nifty Weekly Recap: A Tug-of-War Continues
The Nifty 50 index concluded the week at 24,148, marking a 150-point decline from the previous week's close. It oscillated within a tight range of 24,537 and 23,816, as predicted. While the VIX index shows signs of cooling down, the Nifty is expected to trade between 24,700 and 23,550 , with a potential breakout on either side. The weekly candle suggests a balanced market, with no clear direction.
A Cautionary Tale from the Monthly Chart
However, the monthly chart paints a different picture. The current pattern bears a striking resemblance to the one observed between April and June 2022. If history repeats itself, the Nifty could face another downward spiral, potentially testing support levels of 23,250 and 21,555. To regain its bullish momentum, the index must decisively close above 24,550, a feat that seems challenging in the current market conditions.
US Markets: A Bullish Run Fueled by Trump's Reelection
The S&P 500 index soared to an all-time high weekly close of 5,995, reaching a peak of 6,012 and a low of 5,696. Trump's reelection has ignited a rally in the US market, propelling it to new heights. For further upside, the index must sustain above the crucial 6,013 Fibonacci level. If it manages to do so, it could target 6,142, 6,225, 6,376, 6,454, 6,520, or even 6,568.
Impact of US Markets on India
The question remains: How will the US market's bullish run impact Indian equities? As investors closely monitor global cues, the Nifty's trajectory will depend on a delicate balance of domestic factors and international sentiment.
Nifty50trend
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 28-1st Nov 2024. Nifty Nosedives! This week, the Nifty took a dramatic plunge, closing a hefty 700 points down from the previous week at 24,180. The bulls fought valiantly, pushing the index to a high of 24,978, but the bears ultimately prevailed, dragging it down to a low of 24,073.
Key Levels Breached and Tested: My predicted range for the Nifty this week (25,550 - 24,350) was unfortunately shattered on the downside. Furthermore, the critical support level of WEMA21 was breached for the first time since October 2023, a potentially bearish sign.
Is a Short Squeeze Brewing? With many retail investors now anticipating a continued downtrend, a counter-intuitive uptrend might be on the horizon. This could be a strategic move by the bulls to trap those who are shorting the market.
Next Week's Crucial Levels: Buckle up, because next week is a pivotal one for the Nifty. If the index can defend the crucial support zone of 23,900-24,000, we might witness a surge testing resistance levels around 24,500-24,600. However, a breach below 23,900 opens the door for a further decline towards 23,600 and even the psychologically important 200-day moving average (23,500). This is where I, for one, will be getting "greedy" by considering adding Niftybees and some fundamentally strong stocks with favorable risk-reward ratios. Remember the age-old wisdom: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." The time to be greedy for value might be just around the corner!
S&P 500: Holding the Line (for Now): Across the pond, the S&P 500 failed to surpass its previous week's high of 5,878 and experienced a correction of more than 1.5% from its weekly peak of 5,866. The silver lining? It managed to hold above the crucial support level of 5,762. The upcoming week will be critical as well. If the S&P 500 can maintain a position above 5,863, it could potentially surge towards a significant Fibonacci retracement level of 6,013, which could also provide a positive tailwind for the Indian markets. However, a dip below 5,700 could trigger a correction ranging from 1.6% to 3.3%, potentially dragging the Nifty down with it.
Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous Diwali. Enjoy
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 21-25th Oct 2024The Nifty 50 index concluded the week at 24,854, a 110-point decline from the previous week's close. Despite hitting a high of 25,212 and a low of 24,567, the index remained within its expected trading range of 25,550 to 24,350. Looking ahead, I anticipate the Nifty to continue trading between 25,400 and 24,300.
A breakdown below 24,486 , the WEMA21 support level, would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to a decline towards 23,400 or 23,300 . Conversely, a sustained move above 25,144 could pave the way for a rally to 25,500-25,600.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index achieved a new all-time high weekly close of 5,864, up approximately 40 points from the previous week. This suggests a potential upward move of 2-2.5% from its current level, targeting the significant Fibonacci level of 6,013. It remains to be seen if this positive momentum in the U.S. market will translate into a recovery for the Indian stock market."
Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 7-11th Oct 2024The Indian stock market had a volatile week, primarily driven by the escalating Iran-Israel conflict. The Nifty 50 index closed at 25,014, down 1,170 points from the previous week's close. The index made a high of 26,134 and a low of 24,966 during the week.
For the coming week, the expected range for the Nifty 50 is 25,600 to 24,400 . A breach of these levels could lead to further volatility. The crucial support level is at 24,450, which is the WEMA21 support. If the index breaks below this level, a correction towards 23,000 is possible.
On the other hand, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,751, forming a bullish hammer candle, which is a positive sign for the US market. If the S&P 500 can sustain above 5,800 next week, it could rise further to 5,820, 5,899, or even 6,012. A strong performance in the US market could help Indian markets recover.
Overall, the market outlook for the coming week remains uncertain due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, there is a possibility of a bounce in the market, especially if the S&P 500 continues to show strength.
#Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 19-23rd Aug 2024#Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a positive note, climbing 174 points to settle at 24,541. The index danced within the anticipated 25,150-23,800 range, as predicted in the previous analysis. For the upcoming week, a similar trajectory is expected, confined between 25,200 and 23,900 . A breakout from either end could ignite significant volatility.
The broader bullish trend persists on both weekly and monthly charts, offering a comforting backdrop. A decisive daily close above 24,700 would be a key indicator, potentially propelling the Nifty towards 24,860, 24,950, or even the all-time high of 25,078. However, breaching the 25,200 level appears challenging at this juncture.
The S&P 500 also mirrored a positive week, gaining 210 points to close at 5,554. Intriguingly, this settlement is near the July 26th high, a level that previously triggered selling pressure. A sustained position above 5,570 could pave the way for a move towards 5,620 or 5,637. A consecutive close above the crucial Fibonacci level of 5,637 would open doors to 5,700, 5,806, and ultimately, 6,142, potentially boosting Indian equities.
The bottom line remains unchanged: as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 mark, the bullish outlook prevails.
Nifty 50 Index (NSE: NIFTY) AnalysisBased on the daily chart for the Nifty 50 Index (NSE: NIFTY), here is the summary and analysis:
Key Levels:
- Current Price: 22,488.65
- 50% Retracement Level: 22,458.10
- 61.8% Retracement Level: 22,324.60
- Target Price: 23,600
Chart Analysis:
1. Upward Trend: The chart shows an overall upward trend, with the index making higher highs and higher lows.
2. Retracement: The index is currently in a retracement phase, falling from its recent high of 22,705.75. The price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and is approaching the 61.8% level.
3. Support Zone: The blue shaded area represents a significant support zone between the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. This zone could provide strong support and potential for a rebound.
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Scenario:
- If the index finds support at the 50% or 61.8% retracement levels and rebounds, it could continue its upward trend towards the target price of 23,600.
- Confirmation of a bullish trend would come with a strong bounce from the support zone and a move back above the previous high of 22,705.75.
2. Bearish Scenario:
- If the index breaks below the 61.8% retracement level, it could indicate a deeper correction.
- A break below this level could lead to further downside, possibly testing lower support levels not shown in the current chart.
Trading Strategy:
1. Watch for Support: Monitor the price action closely around the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. Look for signs of a reversal or strong buying interest in this zone.
2. Buy Position: Consider entering a long position if the index shows a strong bounce from the support zone with increasing volume and bullish candlestick patterns.
3. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement level to manage risk in case of a further decline.
4. Target: Aim for the target price of 23,600 for the long position.
Conclusion:
- The Nifty 50 Index is currently in a retracement phase within an overall uptrend. The 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are critical support zones to watch. A strong rebound from this zone could lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the target of 23,600. Conversely, a break below the 61.8% level could signal further downside. Monitoring the price action and volume around these key levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
Nifty Trade Setup for 14th June. 2022Nifty 50 Index crashed 453 points on Monday amid a global sell-off triggered by fears that a fresh 40-year peak in US inflation will prompt Fed to hike interest rates more aggressively. The India VIX jumped 14.3 percent to settle at 22.4 on Monday, its biggest single-day jump in seven weeks.
Index once again could not hold onto the psychological levels of 16,000 and is on the verge of crucial support at 15,650-15,700 levels (Harmonic PRZ of XABCD). The index has almost retested the March 2022 low i.e. around 15,670 levels and its breakdown would pave the way for further decline towards 15,450 levels. In a matter of 7 trading sessions, the index has fallen nearly 1000 points, from the highs, in an impulsive down-move, and one should look for a pullback from around 16,000 levels for considering fresh short positions.
It is not easy to handle a Bear. Neither in the forests nor in the Markets. The market will be highly volatile, and Traders must look for a pinpoint entry for short positions. Moreover, the US Fed meeting on Wednesday would induce further volatility.
Nifty50: Key Support and Resistance LevelNifty50 is in strong uptrend and my personal view on Nifty is bullish medium to long-term.
However, you can expect correction soon. So, for swing traders and investors correction may provide you an opportunity to enter.
That's why you need to know from where Nifty50 might bounce back. So, I draw key diagonal Support and Resistance level.
Wait for these levels and when price rejects this price level, you may get an opportunity to make money.
Happy Trading!
NIFTY - SGX UP more than 300 points Seeing the Sgx nifty, we can expect nifty to opens gap up.
Tomorrow, If we see nifty opens gap up by 300 points or so, at 9560 it could take a halt for a while and can move towards 9700 levels.
And if it opens above 9770 then it can take support at 9550 levels and then move towards 9700 levels.
Major support for gap up opening is around 9400 -9380 levels