Channel Breakout of the trend is being tested. Recently Nifty on 10th April gave a channel Breakout. Since the negative channel upper limit was respected in last 4 months or so this breakout was a major first step towards up trend. Since it was a major breakout Nifty is trying to look back and test it's support zone before it can fly ahead. Major supports zones from where Nifty can re start the up trend again are:
Support Zone 1: 17618 (current level) to 17528.
Support Zone 2: 17424 to 17267. (A close below 17267 will make this current Channel Break out that Nifty saw on 10th April 2023 a failure).
Resistance Zone 1: 17690 to 17856.
Resistance Zone 2: 17856 to 18004.
Niftyanalysis
Nifty 17 Apr 23 to 21 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 17 Apr 23 to 21 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17638 and low of 17610.
Nifty closed at 17828 (Prev Close 17601).
Nifty Crossed crucial resistance of 17690 last week.
Medium Term call for buy on dips worked well
Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty 50 increased by 5% from low. Especially Nifty bank surpassed ( 7.5%) other indices.
Buy call was given for all the above indices a month back on dips.
RSI, stochastic and MACD in near top zone.
Nifty- short term is Positive.
Nifty small Resistances at 17859 ( Fibonacci 50% retracement)/17867 ( Inclined Trend Line Resistances )
Above these resistances next target at 18000/18100
Nifty firm support at 17500-17457
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18217 , next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement) followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty Support at 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT
Nifty Facing Key Resistance Zone of 17700 to 17797 Nifty has reached the zone where the strength of current rally will be tested. The zone between 17700 and 17797 will be strong resistance zones for Nifty. Only if the rally has genuine strength it can cross this zone. If this resistance zone is crossed the next resistances will be at 17923, 18038 and 18137. Supports for Nifty remain at the levels of 17597, 17533, 17460. The strongest supports for the current rally will be and 17414 and 17363 which are 50 and 200 hours EMA. Below 17363 bears will snatch back the control of the market.
Nifty 10 Apr 23 to 13 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 10 Apr 23 to 13 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17638 and low of 17310.
Nifty closed at 17599 (Prev Close 17359).
Global Economy is reversing but lot of agencies have given cautious & weakest growth % of 2-3% for next 5 years.
Interest rate are at peak and signs of reversal and inflation are reducing.
But Threat of Geopolitical Tension still there.
Markets have raised last week above the initial resistances, moved past MA 200 & MA 50.
Medium Term buy on Dip worked well
Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty 50 increased by 2-5% from low. Especially bank surpassed other indices.
RSI, stochastic and MACD recovered & crossed above 50% the MA and moving up.
Nifty (16945) short term is Positive.
Nifty Resistance at 17699/17650 (Shown in Green Color Declining Trend Line Resistances )
Above these resistances next resistance are at 17818/17860( Fibonacci Resistances )
Nifty immediate support at 17500-17457
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above 17860 ( Fibonacci Retracement) to move past 18000/18205.
There is a chance of reversal from the peak, depends on the global situation.
Nifty Support at 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Above 18265 Target Nifty 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High)
Need to decisively close above 18890 to reach targets of 19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
In case if it falls below then next major support at 16300, then market may go down to 15900.
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT
just a normal correction and a shakeout there is no reason to panic as of now it is just a normal correction after a big move nifty can easily take support at 18150/18100 levels and a bigger but normal correction will take it to 17600/ 17800 levels easily however if the fall is not a sharp one the overall market may remain good that is that the small cap and midcaps will keep on going strong as they have been punished too much in the near past it will be much better for the bulls that nifty takes support from 18150 levels lets see how it unfolds however the short term outlook for the index is not very bullish until it take support from a point and then shows strength most positive outlook in my view is it takes support from 18150 levels and make bullish move from there
Nifty nearing a major resistance zoneNifty has come at the doorstep of Major resistance zone. This is the region between 17586 and 17812. This Zone is full of small and big resistances for Nifty. Momentum of Nifty is good but it will take some major effort in crossing this most important zone. In case this zone is crossed this week or later next week, the next resistance are near 17977 and 18125. Supports for Nifty are near 17514, 17478, 17417 and 17310. It is a critical day tomorrow as Friday we have very rare Second holiday of the week.
Nifty on hourly chart on the verge of Cup and Handle Formation.A Cup and Handle kind of structure is forming on the hourly chart of Nifty. For the structure to complete Nifty has to close above 17429. In that case the next resistances for Nifty will be at 17472, 17528 (Strong Resistance) Closing above 17528 can potentially take Nifty to 17647 and 17803. Supports for Nifty remain at the levels of 17310, 17212 and 17171. The Bias in Nifty still remains positive.
Nifty 27 Mar 23 to 31 Mar 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 27 Mar 23 to 31 Mar 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17530 and low of 16850.
Nifty closed at 16945 (Prev Close 17100).
As per the last week call, Nifty went down and tested 16923.
RSI , stochastic and MACD still at oversold zone and yet to recover / Cross the Signal / Moving Average.
Nifty might fall further as there is monthly expiry, Financial year end profit/Loss booking and Global issues.
Nifty(16945) short term - Go short
Nifty Resistance at 17200/17465
Nifty Support at 16764/16697 (inclined trend line - Green Color)
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above 17465 to reach 17800-17900
If not, Nifty might fall below 16764 to reach 16400/16300 Zone where there are next support.
Long term - Buyable if there is any dip
Target Nifty Resistance 17800-17900/ 18109(sep high) / 18122(0.5 fib new) /18268 (Dec22 end Jan23 high)
In case if it falls below 16300, then market may go down to 15900.
Long term Investors if there is a fall in market, following Mutual Funds can be accumulated
NIFTY 50 Equal weight ( 16945 buyable at 16300 until 15900),
Bank Nifty ( 39395 buyable at 38620/38160)
Nifty IT ( 27935 buyable at 27400/27000)
Great Fightback by the Nifty in last 90 - 100 MinutesLast 2 hours today saw Nifty forming a bottom near 16828 that was the low of the day and making a pretty solid comeback. The momentum can lead us to open in positive and as US and other Global markets are supporting possibly Gap up opening tomorrow. If Nifty can sustain above 17061 tomorrow and move above 17142 tomorrow or later in the week. We can see a relief rally towards in the 17540 and 17650. 17221 and 17323 will be other important resistance points in this upmove. If Nifty can't sustain and close above 17061 we might be looking towards another dip towards 16900, 16850 or 16747. FOMC meeting of US FED on Wednesday will be the game changer for end of the month. Let us see if we have a marvelous ending of March or Melancholy March.
niftyDISCLIMER
All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
NIFTY : Levels for 15th MarNIFTY level marked on Chart. its already break daily support and we can see bears are in power since two days
Levels are marked on chart for intraday. Follow price action and become Price action chart Specialist.
Like, Share, Comment for regular updates.
Disclaimer
I am not sebi registered analyst
My studies are Educational purpose only
Please consult with your Financial advisor before trading or investing
I may be 100% wrong as its my personal trade.
First Learn and then remove "L"
Morning Mantra - 15th March 2023Dear All,
We are just seeing the effect of the breakdown level of 17300. Wherein, it seems that Nifty is on its journey towards 16800.
On Monday, we had seen Nifty taking a support at 17180 . However, unfortunately the stated level of support was violated in yesterday’s market.
So, as of now, we will have to wait and watch for Nifty to either make a breakout of 17180 level , or to take a major support at around 16800 .
Till then be stock specific and be cautious.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Divergence on RSI will try to drive Nifty upwardsThere is a divergence formed in RSI in the last one hour during todays fall. Indicating that we may see positivity today. Nifty may end in Green territory if there is no further bad news from US. 17258 and 17355 will be important resistances. Followed by 17488 which is the 50 EMA. Supports are at 17113, 16952 and 16745. The last 2 only if there is some further major bad news. Otherwise 17113 and 17017 are pretty solid supports.
Nifty 13 Mar 23 to 17 Mar 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 13 Mar 23 to 17 Mar 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17801 and low of 17331.
Nifty closed at 17413 ( Prev close 17594 ) due to US Bank issues.
Nifty to go down and test 17133/17088/17000 in the coming week.
RSI , stochastic and MACD have recovered and increased, later declined at the end of week to selling zone. Markwt still not in oversold zone.
Nifty short term -
Will go down and the crucial support need to hold.
Nifty Resistance at 17650/17712 (Inclined Trend line - Shown in green color)
Nifty Support at 17368 MA200 /17355(new low) /17200/ 17167 (aug 22 Low)/17133 ( Red Inclined trend line)/ 17088 ( Blue Inclined trend line)
Nifty Medium Term
Nifty will be range bound in medium term from 17000 to 18268.
Nifty need to break decisively above 18268 to reach 18800-18900 in Medium term and Support at 17000
Nifty Resistance 18109(sep high) / 18122(0.5 fib new) /18268 (Dec22 end Jan23 high)
Long term
Target 19500/20500 possible if it breaks above 18268
In case if it falls below 17000, then next crucial support is at 16793, which will act as major long term support.
NIFTY 50 Equal weight, Bank Nifty, Nifty IT and Mutual funds can be accumulated for long term.
Morning Mantra - 13th March 2023Dear All,
Finally, once again Nifty took a beautiful support at the level of 17300 on Friday. Also the Index made a beautiful bullish reversal pattern , called hammer on the daily chart.
Well in our weekly analysis , we are quite optimistic for the market as of now. However, in case Nifty breaks the level of 17300 on closing basis for panic creation , then 17180 will work as a speed breaker in between 17300 and 16800 level.
So, keep patience and be stock specific.
Furthermore, as of now, 17800 will once again work as a strong resistance for the market.
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
niftyDISCLIMER
All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.
Nifty Consolidating like a Diamond. Compressed Coal becomes diamond. Nifty looks like that compressed diamond right now. With upcoming rate hikes by US Fed and possibly RBI there is chance of further compression. But once this cycle of rate hike is done with, once the inflation is under control. The diamond will definitely shine and glitter and make the investors smile.
Nifty Supports are: 17325, 17255, 16956 and finally 16744.
Nifty Resistance are: 17452, 17582, 17785 and finally 18267.
Weak Nifty not able to cross 50 EMA despite multiple attempts.Nifty today barely took support at 200 days EMA. In the closing hours Nifty was weak and it will be difficult for Nifty I think to hold on to this level tomorrow. Three expected support zones for Nifty in the coming days can be 17512, 17353 and Finally 17253. Nifty not able to cross 50 Days EMA after multiple attempts can not be considered a good sign. 17800 remains a ver formidable resistance as of now befores Bulls can sniff a chance.
Morning Mantra - 10th March 2023Dear All,
Our stated level of 17800 had once again shown its magic as a level of Resistance , as it made a high of 17772.35, yesterday . Wherein, not being able to crossover, we had observed a major supply in Nifty therefrom.
Well currently, as per the day chart , we are expecting a minor bounce back in Nifty for today. So, it will be better to consider Today as a no trade day and to wait and watch for some clear indication from the market, since today is the last trading day of this week.
Furthermore, we are still with our words, that due to this consolidation in Nifty, now the levels of are 17800-18170-18400 . While on the lower side, below 17300 we can expect 16800 .
So, as of now, continue being stock specific and keep following the cherry picking strategy.
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
200 Days EMA proved to be a great support for NIFTY today.200 Days EMA proved to be a great support for NIFTY today. If Nifty can hold it tomorrow It will have to punch above it's weight again and take down major resistance number 2 that tis 50 days EMA that is at 17809. Crossing 17809 will unleash the Nifty towards next resistances which are near 18016, 18141 and 18267. Supports for Nifty are near 17584 and 17253.
Morning Mantra - 9th March 2023Dear All,
What a beautiful day it was yesterday.
Wherein after a gap down opening we had observed a remarkable bounce back in Nifty, yesterday itself. Moreover, a perfect rounding bottom pattern is now clearly visible on the day chart.
Besides, finally we are on the edge of 17800, wherein it is quite acceptable that above 17800 on closing basis we can see another fresh move in Nifty towards 18170 .
Therefore, until then let’s keep our fingers crossed for this positive breakout and let’s continue being stock specific and following the cherry picking strategy, as of now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
niftyDISCLIMER
All the information shared in this chart is provided for strictly educational purposes only. This chart is sharing information are based on the theory of technical analysis. This is not an offer to buy or sell stocks, futures, options, commodity, forex, interests or any other trading security. Back test yourself before jump into live market consult your financial adviser and use proper risk management.