Niftyanalysis
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 02-Sep-24 to 06-Sep-24
Nifty closed at 25235 ( Last week 24823 ) and touched low & high of 24899-25263 ( all time high)
As suggested for past two weeks, market bounced back and moved up and achieved the first Medium term target 25224.
Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800. This is the best period to start SIP MF when the valuation is high.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (69% and 97% respectively). MACD level crossed cross the signal two weeks before and sustaining. Expecting market to move up further in short term.
Nifty 25235 Short term (Short term up)
Nifty short term resistance 25540 as shown in chart.
Support around 25000(last month high) & 24676 ( trend line support and recent low).
Medium Term 25235, next target is 25800 ( Fib Resistance). if it moves above decisively next target is 26250.
Medium term Support - 24000
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25540 decisively. Support at 22800
Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty bank 51368 (Last week 50933 ) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Newly added stocks to buy are PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 42760 (Last week 41089 ) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and all time high last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
Nifty anlaysis for tomorrow 28 july 2024 (Nifty Intraday Setup)Today After breaking previous day high nifty consolidated from 12 pm to 2 pm and failed to sustain at higher level.
And Nifty closed with a selling swing today.
So for tomorrow if with opening market created a selling swing then a bounce will be expected and day high break or price near high will be expected. Look for W pattern on 5 min.
(SELLING SHOULD NOT BE VERY SHARP AND BIG).
And
If Price move upside and take rejection below todays high & created a lower High (M Pattern on 5 mins.) then intraday low break will be expected.
Combination of Fibonacci and trend lines and Parallel Channel. We will try to look at Nifty with the combination of Fibonacci, Parallel Channel and Trend lines and few other parameters to get the outlook for short to medium term on Nifty. Combination of various parameters mentioned above indicate that Door For Nifty reaching 26K+ within this year might have already opened. Various resistances on the way will be at 24783, 24874 followed by strong resistance of the previous high of 25078. Once we get a weekly or a monthly closing above 25078 the next resistances will be at 25410, 25839 and finally 26321 (Within this year or within this financial year). Supports for Nifty will be at 24643, 24517, 24324 and finally 24115. Below 24115 the final support for Nifty will be at 23893. Below this level the bull rally will be over and bears can take control of the market.
Nifty Consolidating? What's Next?After a turmoil in the US and Japanese market, the ripple effect led the Indian markets to fall on an average 4% on Monday.
This crash has led to correction of an overvalued market, as per analysts.
The market seems to be at a decent valuation and investors who have missed the opportunity, might enter and join the bandwagon of India's growth story.
Let us look at Nifty50's chart on Daily Timeframe:
Previous support: 23890
a level where price should stay and give a bullish sign: 24211
Down by 55% now, one should you buy or avoid it !Here in Aavas Financiers are already declined by 55% in the last few months and currently trading at the 1353 level with strong support at 1335 & 1330. Look like it will take reversal from this level now and again fly high for a strong target as below :
Buy Above 1385 level on a closing basis
Target 1 - 1510
Target 2 - 1588
Target 3 - 1700
Strict Stop loss - 1300
Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade on my analysis.
One more hurdle crossed, Very little room left at the top. One more major hurdle crossed by Nifty and very little room left at the top. Unless there is a channel top breakout. The final resistance remaining before we have a channel top break out is 24408. Today the hurdle of 24236 was closed by a gap up opening the same level was tested as well so now it will act as a support. Other supports for Nifty remain in the range between 24054 and 24010 (Mother Line 50 hours EMA). Below 24010 Nifty will be weak and only major support remaining will be 23807 before Nifty hits 23416 (Which is 200 Hours EMA). Below 23416 Bears will gain more ground and solid momentum.
Nifty analysis and trade plan for tomorrow, Thursday, 4th JulyNifty analysis and trade plan for tomorrow, Thursday, 4th July
In daily time frame Nifty is in an uptrend and expect the continuation above 24306.85, which is the upper band of no trade zone for tomorrow, in which 24230.55 is the bottom. Opening between the no trade zone, we may go for bullish trade after Nifty crossing 24306.85, 24405.25 and 24502.65 will be the nearest resistance levels. At resistance level R1 and R2 we may plan for bearish trades also, with touch and go, meaning, buying PE or selling CE or nifty future just after Nifty touching these levels. Nifty opening above the higher level of no trade zone for bullish trade we may have to wait for a proper price action, in at least 5 minute time frame.
In case of flat opening, after Nifty crossing 24230.95, we may plan for bearish trade. 24183.5 (S1). 24145.4 (S2), 24107.3 (S3) and 24053.05 (S4) will be our support levels for tomorrow. From each support level we may expect bullish reversal, but with a price action only, in at least 5 minute time frame, and we may plan accordingly.
*This analysis is most effective up to 12:30/1 PM tomorrow*
*Personal opinion, not a trade advice*
*Support and resistance levels are based on Fibonacci*
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 24-Jun-24 to 28-Jun-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 24-Jun-24 to 28-Jun-24
Nifty closed at 23501 (23465) and touched low & high of 23417 & 23660
Post Election and govt formation market sustained above key resistance at 23250-23300 for two weeks after a dip to 21286.
RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week (60 % & 91% Respectively). Stochastic still in overbought levels.
Retain the statement for third week, Market need to cross 23900-24100 as two trend line resistance ( Shown in the Chart between 23900 and 24100), if not can book partial profit and can wait for market to correct as there is a strong resistance in that zone.
Nifty 23501- Short term (Neutral )
Nifty might move up and It may touch 23900. Nifty still have resistance / support around 22600. Nifty at PE 22.3 near to 3 year historical average 22.5 hence to be cautious.
Short term support 22600( trendline), 22200 ( Trend Line) and 21700 Trend line Support as shown in the chart.
Medium term resistance 24000/24100 ( Trendline)
medium term Support - 21300
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 24000 ( Trend Line Resistance till Jun 2024) &
Support at 20800 ( Fib Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance).
Nifty also have resistance at 25000 ( Trend Line). If market close above 24000 decisively.
All Companies so far posted average results other than Bank & Finance stocks which posted Good results thats why it is evident Nifty Bank have grown better than Nifty, Nifty IT and Nifty Auto in last 2 months.
Nifty bank 51955 (50000)- As proposed from 47250 level nifty bank jumped near to 10%. Caution to be emphasised as nifty bank reached critical resistance. It need to cross and move up decisively this current zone.
Slowly Can consider to book partial profits in Nifty Bank on every rise.
Investment decision in Nifty bank, bank stocks helped in portfolio.
Stock Picking is needed at this crucial nifty, Nifty Bank, Nifty auto, Nifty Pharma stocks.
As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank ,ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI ( Buy on dip) and Indus Ind Bank ( Buy on dip).
Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin,Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, ICICI Securities. Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Coforge & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio.
There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Comments :
Post Elections, if Market need to grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ). US fed rate reduction also expected from Aug/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT 35200 (34598), indices broke the Major support at 33350 and went down upto 32420. Tech stocks revived in last two trading session. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly considering 2-3 years. It need to break above 35786 ( Fib) to reach 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -17/05/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 22420 level and then possible upside rally up to 22540 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 22370 level then the downside target can go up to the 22250 level.
Nifty Medium term and stocks iam buyingMarket broke the support at 22150
New medium term support at 21500 and 21250 as shown in the chart.
Meanwhile as mentioned in the last week specific value stock iam accumulating based on q4 results whenever there is a dip, Plan to purchase in three four parcels.
Icici bank
Axis bank
Manppuram
Dr reddys
Natco
Bajaj Fin serv
Bajaj Fin
Icici sec
Acc
Biocon
These stick are given for analysis purpose. Individual can review and purchase according to their requirement.
TCS BrakeoutWe can see that the TCS was in down Trent. It formed with higher high with higher low formation and now it braked to the last higher high. There is a chance to change this trend in to the up Trent. You can keep eye on this stock. Its for the medium or long term investment. Its a fundamentally strong IT stock. You can keep SL also that will help you to get this stock at best rate.
#Nifty Trading Important levelsOn 1 Hour Timeframe, NIFTY trading important levels. Time to wait for either breakout or Breakdown (reversal) for the Nifty.
Breakdown Move
- Confirmation for breakdown will be if Nifty starts trading and sustain below 22220 level
- Downside rally nearly 500 points expected in case of breakdown
- Intermediate support expected near 21880- level
- Short Trader can place there stop loss if Nifty starts trading above 22250 level
Breakout move
- Long side movement expected in case Nifty starts trading and sustain above 22250 level
- Above this level Nifty can go upto the 22760+ level.
- Intermediate resistance expected near 22580 level
- Long trader can place there stop loss if Nifty starts trading below 22220 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -18/04/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 22200 level and then possible upside rally up to 22320 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 22150 level then the downside target can go up to the 22030 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -15/04/2024Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading Below 22500 level and then possible downside rally up to 22380 in today's session. in case nifty trades Above 22530 level then the upside target can go up to the 22650 level.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
Nifty closed at 22519 (22513) and touched low & high of 22435 & 22782
Nifty touched new high last week and reduced 1 % due to global cues on last day.
Global tension caused mild drop in last working day of market. Depends the situation market will react next week. Expecting a mild fall till 22000 and may raise afterwards.
RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week(57% & 71% Respectively).
Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome.
Nifty IT 35018(35250) - Nifty IT marginally decreased last three weeks. To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000.
Nifty bank 48565 (48535) - As expected Nifty Bank increased in the last month gaining near to 6.5%. Nifty touched the near time target provided at 48618 & touched new high of 49063.
Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips.
Nifty 22519- Short & medium term (Neutral)
Nifty moved up in the last week touched new high 22782. As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) iwhich is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000.
Short term support 22000/21900
Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue.
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions.
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000.
Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips.
As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -12/04/2024Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading Below 22720 level and then possible downside rally up to 22600 in today's session. in case nifty trades Above 22760 level then the upside target can go up to the 22880 level.