Nifty Approaching Major Fibonacci Support. Nifty is near a major fibonacci support of 17252. This is the place from where it can turn positive. In case this level is broken the next support for Nifty will only be at Fibonacci levels of 16747. RSI on Nifty is also entering the zone from where it normally it can bounce. Relative Strength Index is around 31.35 on daily charts. Last time it was at similar or lower levels only in June 2022. The indications are that Spot Nifty has entered the oversold territory. Expecting a proper bounce or temporary bounce soon. For Educational Purpose only.
Niftyindia
Nifty declining in the squeezing triangle, needs strength. Nifty has been declining within the squeezing triangle needs to gather all the strength available and jump above 17591 first and 17776 to be back in neutral zone. Currently it is in the bear zone or negative territory. Above 17921 will be a trend change and above 18116 nifty will be in positive energetic territory. Bulls can take over only after closing above 18266.
Going and closing below 17353 will be opening proper hell gates for the bears who can take the Nifty to 17104 or further sub 17K levels near 16900 or 16751. (Reaching here is very unlikely for now).
RSI of Nifty is slowly starting to enter a zone from where usually buying starts..
Nifty Squeezing between supports and resistances. In a data heavy week where lot of global events are about to happen Nifty may remain under pressure. Most important of the global events is the US FED FOMC meet on Friday. Don't carry long positions.
Nifty Supports: 17820, 17720 and 17590. Below 17590 market goes into bear territory. Below 17353 market goes into absolute bear grip. (doesn't look likely as of now).
Nifty Resistances: 17959, 18034, 18139 and finally 18262. (Above 18262 Bulls take control).
Nifty ends the week just under mid channel resistance. Some commentators in US are reflecting that during the FOMC in March 2023 can see US Fed hike rate by 50 bps. This move is anticipated based on US Inflation numbers which where worse than expected. Also there are some questions being asked about recovery of certain sectors in China which is still to come out fully from the COVID-19 grip. These two news items in general and US related news in particular purged the momentum Nifty was gaining since beginning of the week and we saw the index nosedive a bit on Friday.
Nifty Supports remain at: 17913 (Major support), 17885, 17794, 17651 and finally 17353.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 17976, 18031, 18134, 18181 and finally there will be a major resistance at 18269.
Long Positions should be taken only after closing above 18269.
Perfect Candle Stopped by Perfect Resistance. As you can see in the chart. It was a perfect candle taking a perfect support near 17795 zone (Today's low 17800). From where it kept on going North until it was stopped by a perfect resistance of 50 days EMA which was at 17960 (High of the day was 17954.55). Those who doubt Technical analysis and say that these are just post mortem lines without any meaning should have a look at the chart and see the importance of Technical analysis.
Also look at the trend line or Asymmetrical line resistance generating from recent high of Nifty at 18887.6 which stopped Nifty twice before once near 18703 on 14th December and once 18201 on 24th January. That line acted as a resistance today again and As Nifty was surging ahead and went upto 17954.55 brought it back to 17929.
Also you can see the 50 days resistance at 17960 which pushed the Nifty down before it could can touch it as the Nifty ended the day near 17929.
How to overcome these two important resistance?
Ans: They can be overcome by a gap up opening.
How can we get a gap up opening?
There is US Inflation Data tonight . If the data is good we might get a gap up opening tomorrow and once Nifty sustains above 50 EMA and trend line resistance...We can see it go further and far....
Critical day tomorrow.
50 and 200 Hours EMA proving to be major hurdles for Nifty. We have been seeing from 25th January 2023 that both 50 and 200 Hours EMA are not allowing Nifty to settle above it. Even if Nifty crosses below immediately. Currently the Nifty is below both 50 and 200 EMAs at 17770.9 indicating immense weakness and lack of confidence of retail investors. FIIs are also on the selling side. Only saving grace has been DIIs stepping in on every major fall to save the index.
Nifty Supports : 17720, 17650, 17494 and finally 17352. 17352 is a critical level below which bears will be dominating the market.
Nifty Resistances : Nifty has to overcome lot of resistance before we can see proper Bull Run in the market. Resistances on hourly chart are at 17794, 17893, 17916, 17975, 18113, 18202 and finally 18264. Bulls can take control of the market only after we have a weekly closing above 18264.
Nifty Consolidating Between Strong Support and Strong ResistanceNifty on a weekly chart is consolidating between strong support and strong resistance with a positive bias starting to appear for medium to long term. Strongest support for Nifty is between the zone of 17352 and 17430 (50 Weeks EMA). Strong resistance zone for Spot Nifty is 17916 and 18027. However crossing 18027 is not enough for bulls to take charge of the market. Bulls will regain the control only after we get a closing above 18266. Bears can overpower the market if the level of 17352 is broken. Things are interestingly poised with Adani saga turning new leaves every day once the fizz of the matter settles completely we may see a proper trend emerge.
Nifty Facing 200 Hours EMA as a strong resistance. As expected 200 hours EMA is proving to be a strong resistance for NIFTY. Unless Nifty can convincingly close above it further journey will be difficult. Tomorrow again Nifty might consolidate a bit later in the day Nifty might try to cross 200 hours EMA. let us see if that can sustain.
Resistances For Nifty: 17910, 17974 and a very tough resistance thereafter near 18068.
Supports for Nifty: 17810, 17765 (Strong support 50 hours EMA) and finally 17649.
Medium Term Post Budget Outlook for NiftyIf Nifty holds on to 17427 which is the 50 Weeks EMA there are chances that we may see an upswing and turnaround in market sentiments in the medium term we may see a rally which can take us close to All time high of 18887 or give us a new All-time high on Nifty which can be just above 19K levels. If the support levels are held we have a chance of Cup and Handle BreakOut on Nifty.There are however my resistances to be crossed for this to be achieved. One of the major resistances will be 50 days EMA at 17991. Supports and Resistances in the medium to long term range.
Nifty Resistances: 17854, 17991, 18196, 18369, 18612 and 18887 and finally 19036
Nifty Supports: 17558, 17427 and finally 17353. Below 17353 only major support is near 17088 and 16757.
Medium to Long term Target for Nifty around 19,000. Strong closing on Friday and a good budget have increased the hopes of a post budget rally in Nifty investors are hoping that the worst of Hindenburg-Adani Saga is behind us and the momentum gained on Friday can continue further.
In any case in the medium to Long term target of Nifty is Point B shown in the chart which is around 18800 and 19,000. How Nifty reaches there is the point. Either we will see Nifty take the route of point A to point B directly or we may see further consolidation and Nifty might go from A to C first and then it may go from point C to point B.
The routes are purely based on assumption and mathematical models which might not be very accurate. The purpose of chart is to provide education. The time when Nifty will reach point B can’t be estimated accurately as there are many unknown factors and surprise elements at play.
One important deduction, 17386 is a major support for Nifty which should not be taken down on weekly closing. If 17386 is broken the trend will become negative.
NIFTY 50 - Sell on RiseThis week started with a gap down opening at 17541 vs Friday close at 17604.
Made low at 17405, though did not sustain at lows, moved up and closed near the day's high at 17648.
The previous support that nifty broke on Friday is going to act as immediate resistance
Currently, nifty50 looks like sell on the rise
Notice price action in the resistance zone and any weak price action would be an opportunity to create short trades.
Trade at your own risk
Nifty Next Week. Will it turnaround or tank further? Nifty has broken all but final support in the run up to the Budget Week following the report by an FII firm against Adani group which holds shorts for the same. Although loan books of Private banks and many PSU banks has nothing to do or negligible involvement in the group, the full Bank Nifty has tanked due to a knee jerk reaction by the investors.
Although there is nothing new in the report that investors did not know. When investors react in a panic mode at times the stocks having good and great valuation also get beaten along with the High valuation stocks. That is the nature of stock market. It is a spell which at times transfers money from the impatient to the patient. At the same time one should not be fool hardy and inflict pain upon oneself by holding on to the burning coal. The philosophy is intended and most of you will understand what I mean here.
17550 and 17457 are the key supports if broken we might be looking at 17341, 17103 or even 16746 levels. On the upper side in case of a turnaround and good budget the resistances will be near 17762, 17841, 17880 and 17978 before we can hit 18K levels again.
Nifty Daily - Wave Count updateNifty wave count update
As soon as the channel was broken, it seemed that wave 4 had started. But when it went out of bounds and started going down again without starting wave 5, the picture became clear that this was not an impulsive wave. It did not follow the essential rules of Wave 4. ABCDE this triangle is being formed. The trend line has been drawn to confirm the completion of the triangle pattern. The subsequent impulse wave is expected to form a new top.