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NIFTY Podcast 26 Aug 2024Again on NIFTY, took only 1 trade with Gap up/down strategy. 1:1 target achieved right away in the second candle itself. Notes: - Closed early due to peer pressure of reaching or closing the targets. Next time, will mute all groups or channels to focus on the trade itself. - There was another entry based on podcast strategy, but neither it hit the target nor it hit the stoploss. Second trade can always be debit spread or credit spread to avoid loss in the decay in the premiums of naked buying options.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by gupshupblog
How the FII-DII Tug of War Could Shape Nifty 50's Future Good Afternoon TV Family, Summary: The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, global equity markets could experience a shake-up. In this idea, we delve into how a U.S. rate cut might trigger foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to rethink their allocations and the crucial role domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail flows will play in stabilizing Nifty 50. Let's explore the dynamic between FII outflows and DII buying, and how this tug-of-war could impact the Indian equity market. Lets Deep Dive : 1. Jackson Hole Meeting and Rate Cuts: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25-50 basis points, it would signal an accommodative stance aimed at supporting economic growth or preventing a slowdown. Lower interest rates generally boost equity markets because they reduce the cost of borrowing and make risk assets like stocks more attractive compared to bonds or cash. US Equities: A rate cut would likely be bullish for the US stock market. Lower rates improve corporate profitability, make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, and reduce the yield on bonds, encouraging investors to shift to equities. This should lift major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. 2. Impact on Global Markets: Global Spillover: A strong rally in the US equity markets often leads to positive sentiment spilling over to global markets. Optimism in the US can create a "risk-on" environment where investors globally are more willing to take risks in equities and emerging markets. Currency Impact: A rate cut might weaken the US dollar, which could benefit emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. A weaker dollar generally supports emerging markets by making their debt cheaper to service and boosting exports. 3. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) Impact: Capital Reallocation: A rate cut in the US could lead to a reallocation of capital by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). If US markets become more attractive due to lower rates and expectations of better returns, FIIs could redirect funds from emerging markets like India back to the US. Risk of FII Outflows: Historically, when the US markets become more attractive, FIIs tend to pull capital from riskier emerging markets to take advantage of the safer and more promising environment at home. If FIIs reduce their exposure to India, we could see short-term pressure on Indian equity markets. FIIs vs. DIIs: The Balancing Act FII Dominance: Historically, FIIs have had a significant impact on Indian equity markets due to their sheer scale. Large-scale selling by FIIs can cause downward pressure on the markets, and in periods of uncertainty or risk aversion, they often pull out capital quickly. DII Counterbalance: On the flip side, DIIs (including mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) have grown stronger in recent years. While they may not match the FIIs in volume, their growing influence means they can absorb some of the selling pressure. In fact, DIIs often act as stabilizers when FIIs sell aggressively. 4. DII Firepower and Their Role DIIs’ Buying Capacity: DIIs have been steadily increasing their presence in the market, supported by growing retail participation via mutual funds and SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflows. Monthly SIP inflows in India have consistently been hitting record levels (e.g., over ₹15,000 crores). This gives DIIs a significant pool of funds to deploy, which can offset some of the FII selling pressure. Insurance and Pension Funds: In addition to mutual funds, large domestic players like insurance companies (e.g., LIC) and pension funds have deep pockets and tend to be more long-term focused. They can step in to support the market during periods of FII outflows. 5. FII Selling vs. DII Buying: Historical Context In recent years, there have been several instances where FIIs have sold heavily, but DIIs have stepped in to absorb some of the selling pressure. For example, during periods of global uncertainty (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic or geopolitical tensions), DIIs have been active buyers when FIIs were selling. However, the degree of balance between FIIs and DIIs is critical. If FIIs engage in a prolonged or aggressive selling spree, it could overwhelm the DIIs' ability to absorb all the outflows. In such cases, the market could still see a downward correction, albeit potentially less severe due to DII intervention. 6. Retail Investor Participation Growing Retail Participation: While individual retail investors may not have the power to single-handedly stop a market decline, their cumulative impact through mutual funds and SIPs is growing significantly. Retail participation has become more pronounced in the Indian markets, with a steady flow of domestic savings being funneled into equities. SIP Flows: Monthly SIP inflows have created a steady and predictable stream of liquidity for the market. Even during periods of FII outflows, DIIs can rely on these inflows to buy equities and stabilize the market. While this might not entirely counterbalance FII selling, it provides consistent support and can cushion downside moves. 7. Role of Mutual Funds and SIPs Mutual Funds and SIPs: With SIP flows providing a reliable source of funds, DIIs can manage their buying strategies more effectively, especially during periods of volatility. This has been one of the reasons why the Indian markets have remained relatively resilient in the face of global shocks. SIP Inflows’ Resilience: SIPs are typically long-term, driven by retail investors who are less likely to pull out during short-term corrections. This means that mutual funds have a steady flow of capital to deploy, which can help support the market over time, even if FIIs sell off in the short term. 8. Indian Market Reaction: Short-Term Negative Impact: The Indian markets might see a negative reaction in the short term, particularly due to potential FII outflows and global investors reallocating capital to US equities(not a must but a possibility). However, this will depend on the scale of the US market rally and how much FII sentiment is swayed by the rate cut. Longer-Term Outlook: In the longer term, India remains a strong emerging market story with robust growth potential. So, while there might be short-term downside due to FII outflows, domestic factors like earnings growth, reforms, and economic resilience could offset the impact over time. 9. Potential Limits of DII Support Magnitude of FII Selling: If FIIs engage in heavy and sustained selling (e.g., billions of dollars in outflows), DIIs may not have the capacity to fully absorb the impact. In such cases, the market would likely see a correction, and DIIs would focus on selectively buying stocks where they see long-term value. Global and Domestic Factors: DIIs’ ability to support the market also depends on the broader domestic economy, liquidity conditions, and global sentiment. For instance, if global markets are in turmoil, even DIIs might become more cautious, limiting their ability to counteract FII outflows. 10.Other Considerations: Sectoral Impact: Some sectors in the Indian market, such as IT services, might benefit from a weaker US dollar and stronger US growth prospects, while rate-sensitive sectors (like financials) could face pressure from FII outflows. Central Bank Response: The RBI may also factor in the Fed’s decision when considering its own interest rate policy. If FIIs withdraw capital, the RBI might need to adjust its stance to support the rupee and maintain financial stability. 11. Sectoral Impact Different sectors of the Indian economy could experience varying effects based on these developments: IT Sector: Indian IT companies could benefit from a weaker dollar, as a strong US growth outlook would drive demand for IT services and outsourcing, positively impacting the sector's earnings. Financials: Rate-sensitive sectors like financials could face short-term pressure due to FII outflows, but DIIs and retail inflows could stabilize them in the medium to long term. Export-Oriented Sectors: Export-driven sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automobiles could see a boost from a stronger rupee and weaker dollar, enhancing their competitiveness globally. Summary & Conclusion: A. Short-Term Risk: A Fed rate cut could lead to short-term selling pressure on Indian markets due to FII outflows, as investors chase better returns in the US. B. Global Risk-On Sentiment: However, if global sentiment improves significantly, emerging markets might benefit indirectly from stronger global growth prospects. C. Domestic Strength: India’s strong domestic fundamentals should eventually provide support, even if there is an initial dip due to global factors. D. DIIs can provide significant support to the market and act as a counterbalance to FII selling, especially due to consistent retail inflows via mutual funds and SIPs. However, the extent to which DIIs can offset FII outflows depends on the magnitude of the FII selling. In a severe selling spree, even strong DII buying might not fully prevent a market downturn, though it could cushion the impact. E. Retail investors, through mutual funds and SIPs, have become a crucial source of liquidity, helping DIIs stabilize the market, but the balance between FII outflows and DII inflows is key to determining market direction. Thank you for reading, Now let's just brush up on technical's : 1. If the index moves up which is only possible above 24900 zone then we have : 25460 to 25560 which is immediate upside levels, above that it might move further upside as per chart around 29K. 2. If breaks down and starts declining then : 24350 to 24400 zone should be a immediate support, if breaks below then 24180,23630,23180 worst case will be 22730. Let's see how this all works out. Once again Thank you for taking your time to read. If I am wrong any where please do leave a comment to correct me. PS: The above idea and thoughts are purely educational and do not consist of any financial advise or investment. Please do consult your financial advisor for any investment.
NSE:NIFTY
by Tron029
2
Nifty at mid channel support trying to cool down RSI. Nifty is currently resting on the mid channel support and is trying to cool down overheated RSI. This consolidation is necessary before it can march further. Earlier in the day RSI had reached over heated zone of 75+. Currently the RSI has cooled down to 67.89. Further consolidation will be good for the market before it's next leap towards 25K+ again. The new channel top seems to be near 25.41K. In the medium to long run the Nifty has potential to reach anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K within this year or within this financial year. Supports for Nifty currently are near: 24738, 24652, 24601 and 24409. 23893 will be a critical support closing below which the Nifty rally can turn bearish. Resistances For Nifty on the upper side are at: 24869, 24949, 25078 and finally Channel top resistance near 25411. Closing above 25411 will open our gates for new target which can be anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024 Sideways today! But, all CE buying side targets have been met and a small position of the CE monthly trade is still open with open target. Trailing Stoploss : 24,687 Resistance: NONE, all CE side targets met If the price crosses and closes below the Risological Trendline, I will be looking at buying PE side position. Till then, Iam gonna enjoy the CE side profit. Good luck
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ProfitsNinja
NIFTY Podcast 22 Aug 2024Total 2 trades were taken today. 1st trade was based on Gapup/down strategy with R:R of 1. Although the outcome wasn't in the trade's favor, so closed along with the second trade. 2nd trade was on Podcast levels, the OI data was negative and there was huge Call writer on 28500 CE side, so took the trade with R:R of 1. Closed the trade with profit of only 3 points, but based on position sizing had taken with 4 lots. Notes: - Instead of Naked buying, Credit Spread would have worked in the favor for the 1st trade as today was the expiry of Nifty.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by gupshupblog
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 21/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today: 📈 Gap-Up Opening Expected: Expected Opening Level: Near 24700 Key Level: 24700 Potential Upside Target: 24850 Nifty is expected to open with a gap up near the 24700 level today. If the index sustains above this level after opening, we could witness a strong upside rally, potentially reaching up to 24850 during the session. 📉 Watch for Downside Risks: Critical Reversal Level: 24650 Support Level: 24500 However, if Nifty starts trading below 24650, downside movement may occur. The 24500 level will serve as an important support in today’s session.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
Gap generated on 5th August Finally Filled today. Gap generated due to gap down opening of 5th August is finally filled today. It is not necessary that all gaps either on the way up or on the way down are filled every time. As there are different type of gaps and different timings of gaps / intervals etc there are many factors which create loop holes in the gap theory. We will discuss that some other time. Gap Theory is a subject in itself. The supports for Nifty now are at 24517, 24324 and finally 24088. Resistances for Nifty in the short to medium term are at 24736, 24857, 24950 and 25080.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 19/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today's Session: 📈 Gap-Up Opening Expected: Opening Level: Near 24550 Key Level: 24550 Potential Upside Target: 24850+ In today’s session, Nifty is expected to open with a gap up near the 24550 level. If Nifty can sustain above this level after opening, we could see an upward movement, potentially reaching 24850 or higher. 📉 Watch for Reversal: Critical Level: 24450 Potential Downside Target: 24200 However, if Nifty reverses and starts trading below 24450, a downside rally may occur, with the index potentially declining towards the 24200 level.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
#Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 19-23rd Aug 2024#Nifty 50 index concluded the week on a positive note, climbing 174 points to settle at 24,541. The index danced within the anticipated 25,150-23,800 range, as predicted in the previous analysis. For the upcoming week, a similar trajectory is expected, confined between 25,200 and 23,900 . A breakout from either end could ignite significant volatility. The broader bullish trend persists on both weekly and monthly charts, offering a comforting backdrop. A decisive daily close above 24,700 would be a key indicator, potentially propelling the Nifty towards 24,860, 24,950, or even the all-time high of 25,078. However, breaching the 25,200 level appears challenging at this juncture. The S&P 500 also mirrored a positive week, gaining 210 points to close at 5,554. Intriguingly, this settlement is near the July 26th high, a level that previously triggered selling pressure. A sustained position above 5,570 could pave the way for a move towards 5,620 or 5,637. A consecutive close above the crucial Fibonacci level of 5,637 would open doors to 5,700, 5,806, and ultimately, 6,142, potentially boosting Indian equities. The bottom line remains unchanged: as long as the Nifty holds above the 24,000 mark, the bullish outlook prevails.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Nifty 50 analysis for coming week for 12th August to 16th AugustThis chart of the Nifty 50 Index on a 15 minute timeframe includes a Rising Wedge pattern and highlights several key levels and potential price movements. Here's the analysis: Key Levels: Immediate Resistance Levels: 24,516: A potential breakout point above which the index might move higher. 24,837: Another significant resistance level to watch if the price moves upward. 25,000: Key psychological and resistance levels that could be tested if the bullish momentum continues. 25,100: The upper target for a strong bullish move. Support Levels: 24,385 (PW-VAH): Previous Week Value Area High, acting as a support zone. 24,265 - 24,228 (PM-POC): Previous Month Point of Control, an area where the price might find support. 24,140 (PM-VAL): Previous Month Value Area Low, a crucial support level. 24,000: A key psychological support level, also indicated on the chart. 23,920, 23,809, 23,681, and 23,595: These are lower support levels, potentially in play if the price breaks below 24,000. Chart Patterns: Rising Wedge: A bearish pattern that suggests the price might break downwards after consolidating. It is currently testing the upper boundary of this pattern. Predicted Movements: Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above 24,516, it could move towards the 24,837 level. Further upward movement could target 25,000, 25,057, and possibly 25,100 if the bullish momentum is strong. The green arrows indicate the possible upward targets. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to break above 24,516 and starts to break down from the Rising Wedge, it could retest lower levels like 24,385, 24,265, and 24,228. A significant break below 24,000 could lead to further downside, targeting 23,920, 23,809, 23,681, and 23,595. The red arrows indicate the possible downward targets. Conclusion: Upside Potential: A breakout above 24,516 could lead to a test of higher levels up to 25,100. Downside Risk: A break below 24,000 could initiate a stronger bearish move, targeting the lower support levels. The movement will likely depend on how the price reacts around the 24,516 level and whether it breaks the Rising Wedge pattern upwards or downwards.
NSE:NIFTY
by Nivesh_Labs
#nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 12-16th Aug 2024The Nifty index concluded the week at 24,367, shedding 350 points from the previous close. The index touched a high of 24,419 and a low of 23,893. A global market downturn, ignited by the unwinding of yen-funded positions, sent shockwaves through financial markets worldwide. Looking ahead, the Nifty is projected to oscillate between 25,150-23,800. A breach below the crucial 23,800 support could trigger a deeper correction towards 23,500. On the upside, 24,700 is a key resistance level to watch, representing a potential gap fill. Short-term chart patterns hint at a bullish reversal, supported by the positive outlook on weekly and monthly timeframes. Also remember next week is truncated due to 15th Aug holiday so it will be a 4 day week for Indian markets. The S&P 500 found support near the DEMA 200. To sustain its upward momentum, the index must hold above 5,400, opening the door to potential targets at 5,433, 5,500, and 5,566. Conversely, a dip below 5,233 could reignite the downtrend, with support levels at 5,180, 5,088 (DEMA 200), and 5,016 exerting downward pressure on global markets. Prepare for continued market volatility.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Mother line yet again supports and zone 24340 to 24382 resists.Mother line yet again comes to rescue of Nifty after the zone between 24340 and 24382 stops the growth of Nifty yet again. Once this zone is crossed only then Bulls can breath easily. Trend line resistance has also come into effect with absolutely no room for Nifty to go. So there should be a breakout in Nifty in either direction tomorrow. Shadows of the candles are green and positive due to the mother line support at 23983. So hopefully the breakout should be on the positive side. Resistance levels 24340, 24382, 24584 and 24714. The supports on the lower side are 24075, 23983 and 23673.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. But we are still not out of the woods as there is a resistance zone near high of the today that is 24337 and 24382. (This is the resistance created by the gap down opening on 5th August. The starting and ending point of Such massive gaps always acts as a resistance zone while going up. The best way to cross this resistance will be a gap up opening. 24483 is another point which was the starting of this gap which will also act as a resistance on the way up. Once that is crossed we can look forward to reaching the next resistance levels of 24584 and 24714. Supports on the lower side for Nifty are at 24183, 24075 and 23978 (Mother Line 50 day's EMA). Below this level only two supports remaining will be 23912 and 23673. We can again be in this unlikely zone as of now only if there is some major bad news overnight otherwise shadow of the candles is looking positive. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Mother line again came to rescue Nifty but can it hold?Mother line or 50 days EMA again comes to rescue of Nifty today. There was a huge selling pressure when the Nifty reached day's high that is 24382. Market has closed at 23992 and the 50 days EMA is at 23965. As of now 50 days EMA is respected but the mood seems to be sell on rise so the support is becoming weaker. If 50 days EMA or Mother line is broken on closing during the reminder of the week. There can be increased pressure on Bulls as Bears will try to explore further supports. Supports for Nifty as of now seem to be at 23965 (Important Mother line support 50 day's EMA), 23673 and 23362. The zone between 22788 and 22259 is very important as of now. 22259 is 200 day's EMA or father line support, 22641 is the channel bottom support and 22788 is an important support of bottom of the big candle formed on 7th June. Resistance for Nifty remain at zone between 22214 and today's high of 22384. If you want to know more about Mother father and small child story and how 50 and 200 day's EMA play the role of mother and father you need to read the book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation written by me and available on Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version. This will be a big resistance to cross as above it is gap formed by gap down opening of 5th August. If this gap is crossed the next resistance will be at 24714. Shadow of the candles is red still. RSI 40 and Mother line saved the day today let us see if these levels can hold. If these levels are held upside is possible. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment