Opening in the Bear's den. Nifty is all posed to open in the Bear's den. The higher probability is a few up ticks and then bears overporwer the bulls and sell aggressively. But if the bulls are aggressive enough and fresh buying comes in, there will be an epic short covering rally. Be prepared to trade. Could be a happening expiry.
Niftylevels
Nifty Squeezing in tight space between supports and resistances.Nifty is squeezing in a tight space squeezing between major supports and resistances. A major move on either side can not be negated. With US inflation, Lok Sabha election phases, Announcements by FM about course correction discussion with SEBI on how F&O will operate in future, and other important data awaited, mixed bag results. Today 200 Hours EMA acted as a major resistance. Nifty barely touched it and returned closing fractionally below 50 hours EMA. Trend line resistance and support are also acting not allowing Nifty to move much in either directions. FII is selling on every rise. DII is buying on every dip.
Very interesting phase which is testing the patience of investors is going on. All we need to do is watch important levels, important results and important data. Holding on to what we have high conviction in and letting go of what is not convincing valuation wise is important. Not reacting to market noise and filtering out your portfolio is important, before the next bull run begins. If it has not already begun.
Important Resistance Levels: 22242, 22302 (200 Hours EMA) Father line, 22400 mid channel resistance and 22501.
Important Support levels: 22148, 22068, 21937 and 21815 (Nifty becomes very weak and goes into bear grip below this level.)
Good Closing For Nifty but major resistance ahead. Nifty closed very well above 50 hours EMA (Mother Line) but is facing a formidable resistance of 22273 and 22309. The best thing to happen can be if Nifty opens gap up above this resistance and sustains the level. In such a scenario the next resistance it will face will be at 22374. Crossing and closing above 22374 will bring back bulls firmly in the business and they can push the nifty towards 22501, 22598 or even 22695. In case the resistance of 22273 and 22309 are not crossed by Nifty successfully the supports for Nifty will be at 22205, 22096, 22020 and finally 21937. Below 21937 Nifty has only one support of channel bottom at 21815. closing below 21815 can empower the bears to run havoc but shadow of the candle looks positive right now.
Rise to be sold into!The higher the Gap up today, the mor confident I shall be to sell on the first tick. There is one stop NIFTY missed in this pilgrimage downhill: "21800". When she realizes it, she would turn around and rush to make that final downward journey before continuing up to where she belongs.
A gap down opening is when things will become tricky. In this case there might or might not be a retracement to gather longs before falling.
NIFTY Next Week Target Prediction (May 16, 2024)Nifty 15m has conquered the EMA 100 at the end of the hour today.
We were able tp capture both the PE and CE side momentum using Risological Indicators.
Hopefully next week, we will see Bullish days.
On a Daily timeframe, chart looks BEARISH. So, we might also see a BIG gapdown on Monday morning.
Trade safe. have a happy weekend!
Nifty received some support from bottom and the Home Minister. Nifty today received some support from the bottom and some support from the interview of home Minister where he was seen very confident about forming a stable government as well as talking about investments in the share markets and how things will be in case they win (Which he was confident about. Nifty took support near 21821 and broke a negative trend line and gave a closing above it at 22104 as seen in the chart. However formidable resistances at 22177, 22207 and 22317 remain to be conquered. Bulls can breath easy only above this level. Also FIIs might further sell at every bounce. Unless FII and DII both are buying volatility will remain at the forefront. Supports for Nifty at lower levels are at 22020, 21938 and 21769. Below 21769 bears can create further mayhem.
Nifty falling channel breakout Index bounced aggressively after making a temporary bottom at 21823 . 21823 stays an important level to watch out for, If index sustains below 22000 and starts sliding long traders should exit their position!
Falling channel breakout gives us the following targets -
Target 1 - 21350 zone
Target 2 - 21500/530 zone
Strict Sl once the index starts sliding below 22000 and starts sustaining below it!
Nifty ready to bounce back?Nifty has been moving very well within the channel range in the daily time frame. 22,000 is an important support level in this channel, and it's holding it very well for now. Today's close shows bulls are back in with a fight. I wouldn't enter into any short trade right now, if you are holding shorts, its a good time to exit
Bears... stay a little longer. Will be interesting to see where we open. A gap up will my ideal scenario where we could short with a tight SL from the word "GO...". A neutral opening, again if we plan to go short, the position size will have to be significantly smaller. In case of Gap down opening, I shall wait for a retracement to sell into. That's the plan.
NIFTY 780+ Points and RunningGUY!
Look what I ve been able to catch!
780+ points on NIFTY and still running.
Closed position partially. 25% still open position, Iam gonna let it run till the price crosses above the Risological Astra dotted line.
The Risological astra shows there is a little more room for a dip before a reversal.
Let's wait and watch.
Furthermore, the election results are round the corner, so expecting crazy moves soon.
I will update with fresh opportunities. Watch this space or follow my profile to catch moves.
Nifty trying to bounce after bottom formation. Nifty is trying to bounce after bottom formation. The bull rally can commence and the bounce can sustain only if the level of 21938 is held and we get a closing above 22070. In the case of up move after 22070 is crossed and held the resistances for future will be 22129 and 22188. Post closing above 22188 50 and 200 Hours EMA (Mother and Father line) 22236 and 22339 will be the next major resistance levels. Bulls can breath easily only after we get a closing above 22339. In this case the future target will be 22502. In case we get a closing below 21938 in the coming week the next support level will be at 21769. (Right now charts do not suggest that we can get a closing in Nifty below this point but in case we get a closing below 21769, bears will play major havoc and can drag Nifty even to sub 21K levels.) However this does not look probable right now as shadow of the candles look positive (Green) but you can never say never. Bulls have potential to fight back above 22070 levels and specially can take centre stage if we get a closing later this week or the next above 22339.
Dangerous H&S Pattern forming on Nifty.(Pending confirmation)A Dangerous Head & Shoulders Pattern is forming on Nifty charts.(Pending confirmation) If we get a confirmation candle tomorrow or if the support zones of 22240 to 22186 are broken and if we get a closing below 22186 there will be confirmation for the same. If we get a confirmation of Head and shoulders pattern bears will have potential to drag Nifty further down to 21962, 21769, 21543, 21142 or even 20968 levels in a short to medium term. In that case I will consider it a buying opportunity only. Things will start to become sour only if we get a monthly closing below 20968 levels. On the brighter side today Nifty has taken a support at 50 days EMA. (Mother line). In case bulls are able to take control from here on the levels on the upper side will be at 22488, 22592, 22691 and finally 22800 levels. If Bulls have to fight back it has to be in next 2 or 3 days. Shadow of the candles is neutral right now.
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Falling down ... Falling down!!Nifty spot and FUT, both settled at crucial levels marked in our previous analysis. This is the level that has to be protected for Nifty to stay "NOT BEARISH" at least. Now with an even in sight, I am not sure how it will behave. My previous narrative was that Nifty would stay at ATH levels and with the election result, would fall. But now it seems like there is a different narrative playing out. In the opposite scenario, Nifty should visit 21750 levels and consolidate there, to rally on "surprisingly" (Sarcasm intended) good results for BJP with a stable Govt.
Possibility of further downside. If we consider the high and low of the last day candle in futures as a range, a break in either direction can give a sharp sting that way before turning and going the opposite way. This is just a story that played in my head. And the probability of this being on the down side seems more likely. 22350 and 22300 may be likely in this case before we see a short covering rally.
Mia Culpa Shorters at 22800-900 range have proved me wrong. I should have thought of the "Retracement" shorters, who are essentially piggyback day traders who wat for a retracement to institutional bulk orders and punch in their own, hoping the levels hold. Plus the news of taxation, did th trick. In this case, we should either fly or Consolidate. Not fall further.
Short covering from the word GO22650. Who are these straddle writers who believe in the fables of the fall of Titans? Depending on the Pre market open price, we can see when they will run for cover. Not IF, but WHEN. Let us see if we can gather enough buyers to take out the fabled 22800 short sellers today. Most likely it might happen by the end of the day.
Strong higher high higher Low pattern on Hourly chart. Positive.Nifty is making a higher high, higher low, pattern on Nifty. Which looks very promising and positive. For going further and higher and into unchartered territory Nifty needs to hold 22625 or at least 22547. These two points will work as great supports too. Below 22547 the next supports will be near 22483 and 22379. On the upper side the resistance levels seem to be at 22709, 22881, 22967 and finally 23026. Shadow of the candle looks positive.