NIFTY DETAILED INSIGHTS - ANA ELLIOTT PERSPECTIVE
Greeting traders and investors,
Been a while since our last publication
Now back to the business
POST COVERAGE - NIFTY LONG TERM, Medium term & short term (DETAILED ANALYSIS WITH VIDEO PRESENTATION for free)
NIFTY has been riding high waves for a while and the main thing that is fish about the move is, it is not supported by the psychology and this move precedes a big decline, which will last for months to years and to know how the psychology is influenced by various factors, lets just understand the smallest elements to largest elements in the evolution of markets.
The NIFTY has been rallying past 7 months without any pause and it is also nearing its greatest resistance - all time highs of 9119 and the moves beyond this point is really challenging a trader.
Various challenges are detailly explained in the BLOG POST in our website,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Niftylong
Nifty : Long at 8500 For Targets - 9100/9200So after our last post - Nifty : Brexit Gone - Now What Long
The market has risen by more than 8% - i.e Nifty.
Nifty is now in a consolidation mode -- which we expect to be over within next 2-3 days - rebound might happen at 8471 and if it breaches this then the next stop 8400 .
Wave 5 of wave 3 in play - means complete wave 3 will be ending soon around life high for Nifty.
Expecting this play to complete before the FED meet ( FCNR outflow specific to India only could also limit the upside ) !!
Nifty : Brexit Gone : Now What : LongFed Hike -- Fed did not changed their stance on rate hike i.e. status quo !! After Brexit it is more likely that there wont be any further news till sept for further rate hikes !!
Brexit -- Is it Good ...Is is bad .... we don't know !! This Event is now gone !! Many are comparing this event to lehman brother 2008 crisis, Acc to us their imports have got little bit cheaper and travelling to Britain got cheaper.
Coming Back to India : GST - Looks set to pass, if it does'nt then we do have a serious problem, Monsoon will be above average as predicted by the Met Depts, thanks to La Nina we might have extended monsoon this year.
Now What about Nifty : Too much of negativity with regards to brexit, many of the technical analyst have turned bearish. Has Nifty breached any major technical level on downside -- No ....
Nifty as said earlier has broken its downward sloping channel and has bounced back from it in end of May 16.
We think major Wave 5 is in play -- i.e. wave 3 of wave 3 of major wave 5 !!
Yesterday correction fits into an abc correction of wave 2 of wave 3 !!
Strategy: Let the expiry be over this thursday and see where Nifty ends !! We believe 7935 is now the immediate support which might not be easily broken !! Its Buy the Dips Market !!
Stocks List :
1. AxisBank
2. YesBank
3. HDFCBank
4. TCS
5. Ioc
6. Gati
7. ALBK
8. And Gold
NIFTY - A Big Crazy Bull is headed our way!
Compared to the previous year, 2016 has been a pretty good year for stock traders and investors as well. The year began on the backdrop of a huge correction of the Nifty in 2015 (-1600 points from the high) after a fantastic uptrend in 2014 (+ 2000 points YOY). The 1st two months of 2016 saw the markets reach new lows and a majority of stocks went on to touch multi-year lows. This fall gave a good opportunity to traders especially our Inspiron traders who spotted and shorted the best down trending stocks to bring in lots of profits while majority investors saw their portfolios being eroded day after day.
However come March and the Nifty suddenly reversed from a low of 6800 and there were no stocks left to short-sell as most of them had gone up sharply. Only a handful of stocks (less than 10) regained their uptrend and it looked as if this rebound was temporary. But the markets being true to its character continued to limp higher month on month although with a number of roadblocks along the way. By the end of May, we had more than 50 stocks that had regained their uptrend and 25+ stocks that reversed from downtrend to uptrend in NSE futures segment. That close to 50% stocks in the segment. What was equally surprising is that the stocks went up with minimal volatility and smoothness that had not been seen in a very long time. The volume buildup every time a stock touches a new high is increasing continuously. As on today (31st July) the Nifty comfortably sits as 8600 levels and looks in no mood to catch a breath.
So what does all of this indicate?
Well, before we arrive at a probability, lets crunch a few numbers
The Nifty went from 6100 in Feb 2014 to 8500 in Nov 2014, a rise of 2400 points in 10 months averaging a gain of 57 points every week.
This time the Nifty has gone from 7000 in March 2016 to 8600 in July 2016, a rise of 1600 points in 5 months averaging a gain of 72 points every week.
Current resistance level of the Nifty is @ 8888, what is also interesting is that in past the Nifty has closed above 8888 for less than 10 trading days in its entire lifetime. So crossing this level may be a hurdle but once that is achieved, there is reason to believe that there can be no looking back. We may well be riding the best bull run in a decade.
Even if the Nifty just continues this run rate then we could see the Nifty breaching 10,000 by December!
So it’s time to pull up your socks and get serious, you can’t afford to miss this Bull run! In the last decade if there was a time to be serious about your equity investments, this is that TIME. Take a look at your investment type, your capital and risk taking abilities and get in touch with a Mentor who can guide you.
Goodluck & Godspeed
Regards
Pashin Katpitia
www.facebook.com
Nifty : Planned to stay out, But Why ??Before someone thinks why ? how can you be without trading Nifty ? how can you make money n sort of questions, lets see what chart conveys us.
We are in strong support zone of Nifty but here we don't have proper risk:reward if we choose to enter long positions. So we wont b entering our trades here instead wait for 8540's zone. Its very small support zone so need to watch Nifty keenly before taking decisions @8540's, don't miss that expiry is in another 48hrs - so ranging might be possible.
Let's wait till it comes to our marked zone before entering long.
I don't prefer to enter long now around 8580's bcos of R:R. So I will wait n see what happens @ 8540's. If Nifty bounces back from here, no issues. That is what is known as Following Ur Plan n Discipline.
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Nifty : Potential Bullish Bat Formation - Long @ 8450'sComing back to the scrips which we keep close to our hearts - Yep, Nifty's....
We have bullish bat pattern formation which is currently in C to D move, so once the move gets completed at D point we can Initiate long positions in Nifty. The other blue lines going around chart are the idea posted on higher timeframe(4h) lastweek.. that idea is still valid. But here we are breaking down to the smaller moves which is 15mins and these happens within the range of that 4h chart. Never try to catch the move from C to D bcos sometimes pattern may not complete so you may lose which will be really bad for your trading. So only enter trades @ D point of the patterns. One more thing, to be profitable there is no need to be always trading and taking positions on every swing... Quality of the trades matter the most...
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Happy Trading !!
Nifty : Descending Broadening Wedge : Part - IIHey Guys,
In Part - I of Nifty trade Idea I have told, I will wait for pullback.As expected market made pullback to our expected levels and we have few gaps below 8290's which I expect to be filled soon. So, being conservative trader I am initiating longs around 8290's-8300's only part of my positions. So that if market moves down I will average, thats why marked the gap up with question mark.
The redline drawn was trendline from higher timeframe which is broken now , probably we may get small retest of the redline around 8420's to 8450's.Lets see what happens. Part-I is mentioned in related links. This is how you should stay consistent in your trade plan & wait for Markets to come to you, never chase markets.
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Thanks for your support... Happy trading !
NIFTY July FUT - Elliott Wave Analysis
Greetings traders & readers,
This Analysis for the JULY contract is special because this is a part of our exclusive service Premium trade setups.
To learn more about the Premium trade setup (PTS). click the link below,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Now lets deal with the analysis in weekly time frame and just understand what is happening over there.
We have already discussed that the move from the deep lows have been in the corrective form (triple threes) within the impulse wave 1 in one larger degree and above all we have also given a clear area of resistance & the point of turn, which is what happening currently.
The NIFTY has pierced the area that we have mentioned ( the area around 8333 - 8400 ) and this have been reflected precisely and having done what it is said earlier, lets also find what is about to happen in the near term future for JULY month contract and for the best understanding purposes the analysis have been carried out in daily charts with a detailed video ( which will give a clear perspective over the movements through all this time).
Continued in our website and the same is free,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Feel free to ask for any clarifications through chat / comments in our website ( for instant response) and / or through our trading view Profile.
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Thanks for reading the article
Regards,
Dinesh. R
Senior Technical analyst,
LeadBrains - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading Education & Training firm
Nifty 50 Wave Analysis Update 24 JUN 2016Market CRASH CRASH CRASH but Elliotticians thinks another good prediction. Wave principle proves and always wins.
As i mention last post there possibility NIFTY fall to 8035 level and in comment update there is possibility 7965 level.
Next week we can expect further downside upto 7860 level. Still upside targets are intact 8445 and 8666. This time i ll give possible reversal dates also.
NIFTY 50 Wave Analysis 20 JUN 2016As per my last post Nifty get Support from 8080 level and went upside but pattern not give view on further upside. I am going to review the wave count and come to the new support at 8035. If coming days Nifty fell to 8035 we can expect lot of buying on this level. The upside should be limited for this month as 8311 and trend will continue on next month also.
Wave Projections for next month - Nifty may surge upto 8420 and 8650 level as quick as possible.
NIFTY 50 WAVE ANALYSIS 11 JUN 2016As i mentioned in the last post of NIFTY analysis expecting correction, It happened but due to strength of the NIFTY we got IRREGULAR PATTERN. Still Nifty on corrective pattern for next half of the week.
EXACT time and date for NIFTY BUY entry - 15 JUN 2016 --- 09:24 - 10:30 . You can enter this date & time if price near to our support levels for next week 8087 - 8038.
NIFTY JUN FUTURES - Elliott Perspective
Greetings Traders & readers,
ONE Happy news for all, from this month we are about to release FREE insights on NIFTY FUTURES for current contract, in the beginning of every month - starting today...!
As you can see from the chart we are about to discuss the analysis on NIFTY in weekly time frames
but before that lets also take as deep look at the monthly charts over here,
From which one can observe four consecutive months of Rally lifting it from the depressions of 2015
But the entire move as we have discussed is purely corrective in its existence.
Don't you think that the market is up for a correction now and lets have a clear insight about what's happening :
The Wave 1 as it is earlier described in previous Posts have been developing into an Leading diagonal and this consists of corrective waves replacing impulse waves in their respective places, here it is triple threes in weekly time frames as you can see from the weekly chart,
However we have something to be discussed in detail without which the analysis is incomplete and that is to dig deeper in daily charts and we have carried the same in our website with a Video explanation - A freebie, do check it out here,
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( few Questions of users are also being answered in the video on Previous analysis)
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Thank you for reading the article
Regards,
Dinesh - senior technical analyst
LeadBrains FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading Education & training firm
Nifty - Sum of all factors - An Elliott Perspective
Sorry for the discontinuity as we were engaged in some other obsessions
Now to the Analysis,
You never understand a movie by missing a half of it , so don't miss it
THE LONG AWAITED YEARLY ANALYSIS ON NIFTY IS BEING PROPOSED & the same is gaining attention of all fellow trader. why miss your seat. check it out here,
After that do revisit this ANALYSIS,
Each & every trader will definitely find this analysis compelling to read & understand
The NIFTY has reversed from its 2015 LOW's & the important idea here is that the upward move is definitely not an impulsive rally, it is corrective in nature - which opens the gate for varied options as Elliott has described in the Wave Principle. The corrections at initiation of the trend have been classified as a Leading diagonal Triangle.
Trade Accordingly at each levels of individual waves & at this point....
Thanks for your time
Dinesh -Senior Technical analyst
LeadBrains FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading education & Training firm
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Continuing from the monthly forecasts in the website, an elliott wave analyst can observe the same as we do, the nifty peaked at an all time high of 9119.2 on mar 2015, the downfall is around a year and when will it end...?
obviously an traditional trader doesn't have answer for this question but the perspective that elliott offfers is significant & different and we can observe that wave 3 had peaked at the areas of 9119 and from thereon wave 4 decline has began and within the three wave general structure we can identify a complex triple three w,x,y & z in it and the final wave among them is being unfolded and it had an expansion within itself to be another triple three and within one lesser degree expansion we can find even other degree of expansion in (y) wave and it have been finished recently and the interim rally that we are facing now is for the (x) wave seperating (y) & (z) and the projections for the (x) wave is very subtle yet it has many layers of resistances...,
To find out the exact turning point of (x) wave read our analysis below this degree (IN DAILY CHARTS for free from here), click here to read it now..
www.mytradingcourses.com
The ultimate downfall target is 61.8% of previous wave 3 rally and this explains why there are this many stages of expansions within the currently unfolding 4th wave.( The target & volatility determines the rate of Expansion ).
DINESH - SENIOR TECHNICAL ANALYST
LEADBRAINS FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading education & Training firm
NIFTY LONG
Nifty0.26% has formed a BULLISH HARAMI on weekly basis. We are expecting NIFTY0.26% to gap up on Monday and may stay long through the futures expiry on 25 February 2015. futures may touch 7330 to 7365 levels.the same has been confirmed by Stoch RSI , RSI & CCI . The above is our personal view. It is not a tip, Nor a proposal to buy/sell , Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing. We are not responsible for your gains/losses what so ever.
Nifty ::: LONG:::Nifty expected to rise.
Nifty has formed a BULLISH HARAMI on weekly basis. We are expecting NIFTY to gap up on Monday and may stay long through the futures expiry on 25 February 2015. futures may touch 8330 to 8365 levels.the same has been confirmed by Stoch RSI , RSI & CCI. The above is our personal view. It is not a tip, Nor a proposal to buy/sell , Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing. We are not responsible for your gains/losses what so ever.
NIFTY looks a nice longLooking at the weekly chart it looks like the NIFTY has completed a wave 4 decline and is starting a wave 5.
The 40 level held on the weekly RSI held the 40 level at the end of wave Y and there was divergence on the daily RSI.
I am looking for upside targets of 940.50 and 10390.22
I am still a bot cautions as the new impulsive wave is still in 3 waves so wave Y might turn out to be a flat and we could have five waves down to finish this.