Nifty Medium to Long Term Outlook. Nifty on a weekly chart seems to be in the consolidation mode. With important geopolitical events that happened around the globe and India Nifty is trying to find a firm footing from where it can launch ahead. The events like Ukraine and Russia conflict, Israel and Iran++ conflict, Indian election results, Haryana assembly elections, US elections proved very volatile for the market. Upcoming events like China stimulus package and Maharashtra Elections will also be key for the direction of Nifty while moving ahead.
Best case Scenario for Nifty right now following the Parallel channel seems to be 27796 towards the mid and end of First quarter of 2025. (We would have to be a pure optimist to think it can reach close to 28K in the next 5/6 months but you never say never).
Median Scenario can keep Nifty range bound and we might find it exactly in the zone that it is right now that is between 24K and 25K.
Worst case scenario for Nifty seems to be between 20 and 21K as of now.(This is a less likely scenario but you never say never).
Major Support Levels for Nifty are at: 23816, 23211(Major Support 50 Weeks EMA-Mother Line), 22711, 21813, 21343 and 20858 (Channel Bottom Support).
Major Resistance levels for Nifty are : 24589, 25241, 25796, 26277, 27120 and 27796 (Channel Top Resistance).
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Disclaimer: The views are personal and request you not to take positions based on the above data. The chart and the levels given in the message are purely for the purpose of education.
Niftymediumtermoutlook
Medium Term Nifty Outlook. 24869 proving to be strong resistance for Nifty. If this range is crossed the next resistance will be near 24949 and previous high of 25078. The major support zone is between 24657 and 24738. Right now Nifty is sandwiched between this zone and major move can be seen only after we get a closing above or below these two levels. The top of the trend seems to be near the previous high of Nifty that is 25078. If and when we get a closing above 25078 (Weekly closing). The next target which is also a channel top for Nifty will be near 25411. If we get a closing below 24657 the next major supports will be near 24437, 24120 and finally 23893. Below 23893 there will be weakness and bears can take over the market. Shadow of the candle right not is slightly green in colour (positive).
Combination of Fibonacci and trend lines and Parallel Channel. We will try to look at Nifty with the combination of Fibonacci, Parallel Channel and Trend lines and few other parameters to get the outlook for short to medium term on Nifty. Combination of various parameters mentioned above indicate that Door For Nifty reaching 26K+ within this year might have already opened. Various resistances on the way will be at 24783, 24874 followed by strong resistance of the previous high of 25078. Once we get a weekly or a monthly closing above 25078 the next resistances will be at 25410, 25839 and finally 26321 (Within this year or within this financial year). Supports for Nifty will be at 24643, 24517, 24324 and finally 24115. Below 24115 the final support for Nifty will be at 23893. Below this level the bull rally will be over and bears can take control of the market.
Good close by Nifty but important ATH Resistance approaching. Nifty Medium Term Outlook:
Nifty saw a good closing on Friday as it closed comfortably above 22K at 22040. The closing today has opened the channel going towards new All Time High (ATH) and perhaps go further up as well. The previous ATH that is 22126. The top of the channel seems to be near 23369 but Nifty will take a lot of time to reach there and lot of local and international events happening can hamper the progress all of a sudden. The situation in the Red Sea, Financial Troubles of China and some global inflation data seems not so conducive for further growth of market but you never know how markets behave. The ideal thing to do for investors and traders is to protect their Capital and Profits through stop losses and trailing stop losses. Volatility in the market will remain a key factor till Fed decides for a rate cut which doesn't seem likely till mid July 2024 or later.
Nifty Support Levels: 21966, 21550, 21410, 20961, 20526, 20246 and finally 20052. (Below 20052 closing it will be a total bear market).
Nifty Resistance levels: 22126 (Important ATH Resistance) , 22400 (Important Fibonacci resistance, 22752 and finally 23369 (chanel Top).
Medium Term and Long Term Targets for Nifty for 2024. There are two trend triangles formed in the daily chart of Nifty. The larger triangle indicates the long term target for Nifty at 23098. The triangle within that which indicates the medium term range or target of Nifty tells us that current rally can peak near 22326. In the process of reaching these targets the support zones are indicated by the green lines and Mother, Father lines (50 and 200 days EMA) which are at 21743, 21486, 20988, 20880 50 Days EMA strong support (Mother line), 20542, 20268, 19857 and finally 19599 200 days EMA very strong support (Father line, 200 days EMA).
Medium to Long term Target for Nifty around 19,000. Strong closing on Friday and a good budget have increased the hopes of a post budget rally in Nifty investors are hoping that the worst of Hindenburg-Adani Saga is behind us and the momentum gained on Friday can continue further.
In any case in the medium to Long term target of Nifty is Point B shown in the chart which is around 18800 and 19,000. How Nifty reaches there is the point. Either we will see Nifty take the route of point A to point B directly or we may see further consolidation and Nifty might go from A to C first and then it may go from point C to point B.
The routes are purely based on assumption and mathematical models which might not be very accurate. The purpose of chart is to provide education. The time when Nifty will reach point B can’t be estimated accurately as there are many unknown factors and surprise elements at play.
One important deduction, 17386 is a major support for Nifty which should not be taken down on weekly closing. If 17386 is broken the trend will become negative.
NIFTY For Reminder of the week. Caution Please. Data Heavy week.NIFTY is facing stiff resistance near its new peak of 18887.6. Global cues are not supporting and Nifty is looking for support. It will be fair enough if Nifty comes down slightly searching for support. Outcome of Monetary policy meet started this week is expected around 7th December. We also have upcoming Assembly Election results which can defy Global cues and take the Nifty further to new highs if the results are supportive to the market. It can be a volatile few days and traders should remain cautious.
Major Support Levels : 18591, 18370 and 18120.
Major Resistance Levels : 18771, 18887 and finally the medium term target of 19135.
NIFTY Medium Term OutlookNifty is in the process of forming bottom if it is successful then we can see a relief rally for here in case we are not able of make a bottom we may see further slide. Long term projection up to April 2023 shows the following levels:
Resistance Level: 17335, 17799, 18076, 18369 and finally 18600. Best case scenario 20,000+.
Support Level: 16883, 16114, 15175 and finally 14217. Worst case scenario is around 14000.
Medium Term Market (Nifty) Outlook. Nifty confirmed support at 15180-191 range and pushed ahead. Time will tell if this is a temporary or permanent support but for now a closing on Friday above 15650 levels is a good sign for now. Closing above near term resistance of 15750 would have been even better but current closing is also not bad. Support and resistances in the near term are as under:
Nifty Resistances: 15750, 15880, 16030 and finally 16174. Closing above 16174 can further strengthen Nifty and send it towards 16400 and finally 16785 in the short to medium term.
Nifty Supports: Supports for Nifty can be seen near 15622, 15500, 15368 and finally 15182. Below 15182 only major support is near 15050. Below 15050 we can see a free fall towards 14500/14300 or even 13700-800 levels in very unlikely circumstances.