Nifty may take one more dip before taking off..After Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse events that have shaken up both US and EU banking systems, global indices are experiencing some extreme volatility and negative sentiment. This combined with Hawkish stance of Central banks have sent investors in the panic mode. Though our banking systems look pretty solid and the global events have less significance on our economy, right now NIFTY is feeling the ripple effect of the global crisis and is trying to find a bottom. It found a pretty solid support near 16850 this week from which it has bounced.
The supported can be tested once again, if it holds we can see Nifty bouncing later in the coming week or weeks. US Federal Reserve’s meet later this week will decide the course of Nifty going further. Next week is One of the most significant weeks of 2023 so far if not the most significant week.
Nifty Supports are: 17062, 16959, 16850 and finally if things go wrong in the FOMC meet we may also see 16747.
Nifty Resistance are: 17156, 17235, 17328 and finally 17453. Above 17453 50 and 200 EMA 17556 and 17652 will be the resistances.
Niftynextweek
Market Outlook: Nifty on the verge of momentum run.Markets have given a strong closing to the week above 50 Weeks EMA as well as above 200 days EMA. 50 days EMA remains an important resistance to conquer which is around 17815. The momentum that has built can well take the Nifty past the same if 17581 (200 days EMA) is held next week.
Nifty Supports remain at: 17581, 17353 and finally 17248 (Major Support).
Nifty Resistances remain at: 17769, 17815,18011 and finally 18266 (Major Resistance).
Nifty ends the week just under mid channel resistance. Some commentators in US are reflecting that during the FOMC in March 2023 can see US Fed hike rate by 50 bps. This move is anticipated based on US Inflation numbers which where worse than expected. Also there are some questions being asked about recovery of certain sectors in China which is still to come out fully from the COVID-19 grip. These two news items in general and US related news in particular purged the momentum Nifty was gaining since beginning of the week and we saw the index nosedive a bit on Friday.
Nifty Supports remain at: 17913 (Major support), 17885, 17794, 17651 and finally 17353.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 17976, 18031, 18134, 18181 and finally there will be a major resistance at 18269.
Long Positions should be taken only after closing above 18269.
Nifty Next Week. Will it turnaround or tank further? Nifty has broken all but final support in the run up to the Budget Week following the report by an FII firm against Adani group which holds shorts for the same. Although loan books of Private banks and many PSU banks has nothing to do or negligible involvement in the group, the full Bank Nifty has tanked due to a knee jerk reaction by the investors.
Although there is nothing new in the report that investors did not know. When investors react in a panic mode at times the stocks having good and great valuation also get beaten along with the High valuation stocks. That is the nature of stock market. It is a spell which at times transfers money from the impatient to the patient. At the same time one should not be fool hardy and inflict pain upon oneself by holding on to the burning coal. The philosophy is intended and most of you will understand what I mean here.
17550 and 17457 are the key supports if broken we might be looking at 17341, 17103 or even 16746 levels. On the upper side in case of a turnaround and good budget the resistances will be near 17762, 17841, 17880 and 17978 before we can hit 18K levels again.
Market Outlook: Perfect Doji of indecisiveness.Nifty again feeling trapped within the support and resistance zones of 17850 and 18200. Nifty tried but was not able to break free. Good news was that major support levels did not break. At global level the investors emotions are also hovering between global recession and soft landing of US economy. There is a hope of US Federal Reserve loosening the Hawkish stance but there is a fear of Bank of Japan becoming more Hawkish. It is a perfect ‘Doji’ on weekly chart again this week, indicating indecisiveness, hope and fear. Reflection of Global mood can also be seen in NIFTY. Hopefully Nifty can break on the positive side this week as there is not much space for indecisiveness left in the squeezing triangle created in the chart.
Support Levels: 17854, 17767 and 17386.
Resistance Levels: 18136, 18187 and 18279.
Nifty Outlook For 9th to 13th January 2023. Nifty is looking very fragile and holding on to a major support right now which is near 17775. Mostly we should see turnaround for Nifty from this levels on Monday but in case this support is broken and we see this support broken, then we will see a freefall till the levels of 17668 and 17397.
Below 17397 we have major support of 50 Weeks EMA which is near 17336. Breaking 17336 can further empower the bears who can rule the roost from then on have a further Iron grip of the market. The resistance on the upper side are at 18000, 18125 and 18251.
A turnaround on Monday or Tuesday can bring things in balance otherwise investors will have a tough next week which can test their patience.
Nifty Outlook 21st November to 25th November 2022Market Outlook :
Market gave a good close on Friday after testing the support around 18029 levels. The close above 18300 is an indication of good strength. Mid-Cap and Small-Cap stocks are staring to looks oversold and might start to form bottom in a week or Two. Nifty has formed a perfect ‘Doji’ candle showing indecisiveness and can break out on either side.
Nifty will be very bullish and go towards All time high above the levels of 18446. Nifty can also break down and search for more supports below 18205 levels.
Important Resistances : 18446 and 18604.
Important Supports : 18205 and 17969.
Market Outlook For the Next Week 17th to 21st Oct 2022NIFTY is swinging wildly on global cues. Inflation, fear of recession and Ukraine Conflict news surrounding the same is making the fluctuation in indices more and more unpredictable. The indices may have similar fluctuations for some more time before the dust settles and things are more clear at Macro level. IMF has decreased the GDP forecast of India fractionally but India still remains at the epicenter of global growth. Nifty was not able to sustain above 200 EMA daily on Friday after setting the circuits on fire which was not a very good news and we may begin the week with some weakness. If we are able to find good support at some point in time the Spot Nifty can rise again otherwise weakness might continue later into the week.
Major Resistances : 17244 (Major Resistance 200 days EMA), 17354 and finally 17439. Nifty will be Bullish to a certain extent above 17438)
Major Supports : 17081, 16907 (50 days EMA – Important Support) and finally 16755. (Below 16755 there will be lot of weakness and Nifty will slip in the hands of bears).
Market Outlook plus Short Term Resistance and Supports for NIFTYNifty is very delicately standing between a strong support and resistance. There are very big chances that it will break free next week in one direction. Looking at global factors and other indicators it seems that Nifty will break out on the negative side or at least it might start the week on a negative side.
Major Supports: 17274 (this is a major support but might not work or support nifty if we have a gap down opening on Monday.) Other major supports will be 17010, 16951 and 16896. Below 16896 we can see a free fall up to 16749 or 16309.
Major Resistance: 17430 is a mega resistance as of now. Above 17430 we can see a bullish move till 17626 or 17961.
Short Term Headwinds Ahead For NIFTYGlobal sell-off post US Federal Reserves rate hike another 75 bps has intensified. Not only stock markets but Crude and Gold are also sliding. Hyper Inflation caused initially by COVID19 and aggravated by Russia-Ukraine war is causing dent on Macros of global economy. India due to inherent captive market and investment friendly Government will be / is affected less but one fact stands that we are not decoupled from global economy. Long term scenario for India still remains pretty solid both at Macro and Micro levels. However, in the short terms we will be facing strong global headwinds for sure.
Major Supports for Nifty at this juncture: 17291, 17169 and 17017. Beyond 17017 bears take over causing more pain.
Major Resistances for Nifty at this juncture: 17429, 17590, 17713 and 17921. Above 17921 Bulls will be in total control. Currently Bulls seems to be in shock and are in pensive mood post FOMC press conference by Powell.
Negative Surprise in US Inflation data killed the Bull rallyGlobal sell-off post US Inflation data negative surprise led to a bloodbath and the Nifty ended the week very badly under 17600 levels at 17530.85. The supports for Nifty as indicated now in the chart are 17421, 17323 and 17301. Below 17301 we may see a free fall towards 16929 or 16842 levels. On the upside 17640, 17750, 17996 and 18096 will be major resistances. It will be interesting to see where Nifty finds support and from where it turns around.
Weekly Market Outlook
Nifty this week has given bullish signals. Indications for the next week or so are positive. For NIFTY to crossover to the bullish zone it needs to cross the most important resistance zone of 17925 to 17996. If this zone is crossed we can see the levels of 18127, 18359 or higher.
Most Important Resistance zone: 17925 to 17996.
Other Resistances: 18127, 18359 and 18606.
Support levels: 17786, 17561, 17416 and 17347.
NIFTY NEXT WEEK trapped between resistance and supports.It was important for Nifty to end the week above 17570 which was the 50 hours EMA. Ending above 17700 Which is the trend line would have been even better. Ending below them means now these Two lines are important resistances for the next week. Bull run can start only when we get a daily closing above these Two lines. Crossing 17700 the next resistance would be 17782 and 17989. In case we do not get a closing above 17570 and 17700 the supports for Nifty are at 17425 and 200 Hours EMA at 17315. Below 17315 we can see a free fall in Nifty till 17020 or 16773.
Nifty could not hold above 50 hours EMA.Powell's Speech at Jackson hole Symposium to decide the direction of NIFTY and other global indices. Green lines support red lines resistances. Unfortunately we could not end above 50 hours EMA. Despite multiple attempts today. Good outlook from Powell can give us gap up above 50 EMA. Otherwise things can slide down side next week.
Supports : 17484, 17346, 17246 and finally 17021. Below this level we can see a free fall towards 16900-16445.
Resistances : 17625, 17719 and 17988.
Critical support/resistance levels for Nifty for medium term.Nifty is at a critical juncture. The support and resistance levels for Nifty for the remaining days in the month of August are as under:
Resistance Zone: 17719 to 17779.
Major Resistance Zone: 17779 to 18118.
Support zone: 17349 to 17606.
Other Support: 17178.
Level beyond which Bears will regain control over the market: 16616 (Major Support).
Long Term Target: 19546
Nifty Next Week: Market Outlook 8th to 12 August 2022Market Outlook 8th to 12 August 2022.
As Nifty hourly chart continues to move in the channel which started around 13th June 2022. Recently it hit the channel top and faced resistance 17490 and faced channel top resistance since. 17161 payed as a major support during the news surrounding China-Taiwan crisis and should be looked at as a pivotal support for now. Other major Supports and resistance for NIFTY for the next week that is 8th to 12 August 2022 will be:
NIFTY Supports: 17345, 17161, 17023 and finally the range between 16535 to 16735.
Nifty Resistances: 17414, 17489, 17576 and finally Channel top resistance which can be anywhere between 17576 to 17691.
Market Outlook 30th May to 3rd June 2022. Market has given strong push with thrust upwards towards end of this week. The rally if sustains above 16400-16495 zone will push momentum in favor of Bulls and Market can continue rally in coming week or weeks towards 16700 and above. The important level to hold and cross for Nifty would be 16400.
The Support Zones: 16219, 16026, 15913 and finally 15766. Below 15766 bears will have full control of the market.
The Resistance Zones: 16400, 16489, 16692 and 16754 will be a major resistance. Above 16754 we can see the rally consolidate towards 16900 and 17300 levels.
Market Outlook 16th to 20th May 2022.Nifty opened gap up today at 15977 just short of 16K. Went on to make a high of 16083 but could not sustain the levels amongst the selling pressure and ended negative at 15782. This indicates there is excessive fear in the market and selling pressure on every rise. The market mood index MMI measure of Excessive fear, fear, greed and excessive greed indicates that we are in the excessive fear zone. Buying during these times may create wealth for long term investors. The support and the Resistance zones are as under:
The Support Zones: 15734, 15671, 15507 (This is the final support, Nifty breaking that is highly unlikely but below these levels we can see a free fall to 15052 to 14484).
The Resistance Zones: 16083, 16235, 16484, 16819 and 16964.
Nifty 50 Updates for next weekAfter consolidating for two weeks between 16,800-17,500 levels, Nifty 50 Index finally broke the range and continued to fall sharply, triggered mainly by surprise interest rate hike by the RBI, hawkish commentary from US Fed and mixed corporate results. The short-term trend has turned bearish and it is likely that markets can further slide lower. The volatility climbed above the 21 mark again, indicating that the trend may be in favour of bears.
Week ahead
The range break during previous week has triggered ABCD (as discussed in previous weeks analysis) and XABCD Patterns. Index has formed a doji candle on the daily charts, after a significant fall and the breakdown and retesting of PDL of 16,350 will fuel fresh down-move with targets (PRZs) of 16,200 and 16,000 (Key support) respectively. One can look for a reversal in shorter timeframe in this strong demand zone. Any pullback rally is possible only if 16,500 levels is sustained with resistances at 16,650 and 16,800 (Strong resistance). Pullbacks may be short-lived as we are currently in a ‘sell-on-rise markets’ and one should keep trailing profits or keep targets small on the long side. 16,000-16,800 is the likely range for the Index in the upcoming week and volatility is expected to remain high. Carrying unhedged positions may be risky because of the gap downs / ups and its advisable to keep the position size low.
On the news front, Markets will react to RIL results in early trade on Monday. US, China and domestic inflation numbers, Data on India's industrial output, and manufacturing output will keep Indian markets on edge. Follow us for real-time updates as the week progresses.
Market Outlook for 25th to 29th April. The candle indicates weakness in NIFTY. NIFTY is searching for the support but even after a dip of 1.27% today it did not find one. More mayhem could be awaiting us next week if Nifty does not find the support soon. The points where NIFTY can find support next week are 17150, 17025, 16978 and 16852. Below 16852 there can be a long march towards lower 16Ks or even lower than that. Let us hope that we find support at some point. In case we find a support and there is a bounce. The resistances will be near 17279, 17415 and 17562.
Nifty Round and path ahead for 28th March to 1st April 2022.As mentioned last week the resistance between 17206 and 17450 proved very difficult for Nifty to conquer. It was a mixed week with Crude trading in a volatile fashion Covid 19 cases picking up in China, South Korea, Europe and other places. The war is continuing relentlessly and I would say our market is doing extremely well to hold above 17078 which is the 50 days EMA. FIIs and DIIs were taking turns this week in buying and selling almost like playing hide and seek. Indian market are showing inherent strength. We are at cross roads any positive news can give a nice 200-300 point rally similarly any negative news will test the supports at 17078, 16988 and 16726. On the upper side resistance levels will be 17202, 17294, 17352, 17428 and finally 17628.
Nifty at a crossroad. Levels for next week 14th to 18th March 22Nifty did well to close above psychological level 16600. Immediate resistance is at 16692 and a strong one is around 16814. Crossing this level Nifty can go to 17028 and 17363. Supports on the down side are 16459, 16433, 16250, 15991 and a very strong support exists at 15674. Below 15674 the Nifty can fall to the levels of 15500 and 15465. We need a very positive news from conflict zone about de-escalation or war stopping to take us beyond 16814 and 17028+. FIIs returning to buy zone can also be helpful in pushing Nifty beyond 17028 levels.
Market Outlook For the Next Week 21st to 25th Feb 2022Market can move in either direction purely based on news related to and Geo-political events. Other important aspect that can give direction to the market US Fed taper and Local Election results in some important states in India. Important levels to watch for on the up side will be 17303, 17393 and 17433 which will act as resistances. Above these levels in case of some good news coming during the week related to Ukraine and Russia tussle can give wings to the market and take it to 17486, 17582, 17664 levels. Supports in case of some unwanted news can be at 17241, 17213, 17080 and 17026. Below these levels major support will be 16919 and 16807.
Extreme possibilities for the next week are:
Extreme upside would be : 17797
Extreme downside would be : 16425