NIFTY Podcast 13 Sep 2024Only 1 trade setup was available and took with complete conviction based on below satisfying conditions:
- Change in OI data was slight positive
- 2 Departments on Option chain were "Bullish"
Niftyoptionstrategy
Nifty Podcast 29 Aug 20241 trade was taken today as per podcast levels.
The OI data was positive and also the 4 departments clearly showed "Bullish Signs".
Note:
- Since today was expiry of NIFTY, so credit spread would've rewarded the long holding time before the big move happened.
NIFTY Podcast 26 Aug 2024Again on NIFTY, took only 1 trade with Gap up/down strategy.
1:1 target achieved right away in the second candle itself.
Notes:
- Closed early due to peer pressure of reaching or closing the targets. Next time, will mute all groups or channels to focus on the trade itself.
- There was another entry based on podcast strategy, but neither it hit the target nor it hit the stoploss. Second trade can always be debit spread or credit spread to avoid loss in the decay in the premiums of naked buying options.
Nifty Expiry Analysis and Outlook(29-08-24)In the last week (14th August Expiry), Nifty traded within a narrow range, largely hovering around the CPR (Central Pivot Range) calculated for the expiry. This week, we saw Nifty open above the Pivot, signaling a bullish reversal. The index then tested the Pivot before surging to R4, forming a strong green expiry candle.
This upward move was anticipated following a week of range-bound activity. Looking ahead to next week, if history is any guide, we might expect a range-bound movement after such a strong surge. However, it's wise to remain on the long side of the market while observing how the market behaves tomorrow. I'll provide updates as the situation evolves.
Nifty Index View [Expiry: 08-08-2024]After a notable expiry week characterized by significant activity, the current Nifty expiry week commenced under less favorable conditions. This analysis explores the Nifty Index from both the expiry candle and options technical perspective to provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics.
Expiry Candle Analysis:
This week's expiry candle started at the pivot point but closed below it, suggesting an initial bearish momentum. If the downtrend continue, the next support could be expected around 24,575, which aligns with S1 of the expiry pivot. Further decline might test the S2 at 24,415 - a pivotal level as it also corresponds to last week's expiry low. In terms of resistance, Pivot, TC (Top Central), and BC (Bottom Central) could serve as key barriers in the short term. The analysis leverages Fibonacci pivot calculations based on the expiry OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data.
Historically, a relatively quiet week often follows a highly active expiry week. Given this pattern, the current week might lean towards a neutral or slightly negative close, echoing the subdued sentiment post-high volatility periods.
Options Analysis:
Instead of focusing on volume or open interest, this review emphasizes a technical assessment of the options chain. Technical ratings added to the monthly expiry options reveal that:
Call Options: Moving Averages are indicating a strong sell signal, with Oscillators showing a mix of neutral and sell signals, suggesting bearish expectations.
Put Options: Moving Averages are mostly neutral while Oscillators are leaning towards buy signals, indicating some expectation of upward price movements yet underscored by caution.
Near Term Options Outlook(Current Expiry):
Call Side: Signals are overwhelmingly negative, pointing towards bearish market expectations.
Put Side: Presents mixed signals, which could imply uncertainty or a potential for slight recovery, but the overall sentiment remains cautiously pessimistic.
Conclusion:
Both the expiry candle and technical indicators from the options chain suggest a market leaning towards a neutral to negative closure for the current expiry period. Traders should consider integrating additional data and analyses to corroborate these findings and refine their market strategies.
Dynamics of NIFTY50 21750 March 2024 Call OptionDate: 20-03-2024
As a seasoned derivatives trader, I find myself constantly immersed in the intricate dance of market movements, option data, and technical analysis. Today, I delve into the world of NIFTY50 futures and options, particularly focusing on the March 2024 contract. Join me as I unravel the insights gleaned from my custom-built software, MRISKA DTS5, and share my perspective on the probable expiry level in terms of the strike price for this contract.
Let's embark on this journey by stepping back to the 29th of February 2024, the day the Nifty50 February 2024 contract expired. On that date, the Nifty50 spot settled at 21982.80, setting the stage for our analysis. One of the key observations from my data exploration was the significant short buildup in the 21750 call option .
The 21750 call option caught my attention with its last traded price of 626.10 and a stop loss level of 922.30, valid until 28th March 2024. Tracking its performance from 29-02-2024 to 20-03-2024, the option saw its highest high at 915.00 on 06-03-2024. Fast forward to today, the Nifty50 spot closed at 21839.10, while the 21750 call option stood at 262.40.
At this juncture, two distinct possibilities emerge. The first scenario entails the 21750 call option hitting the stop loss level of 922.30 by 28th March 2024. This outcome would signify a substantial move in the market, reflecting the dynamic nature of derivatives trading.
Conversely, the second scenario revolves around the Nifty50 spot settling below 21750 by the contract's expiry. This scenario hinges on various factors such as market sentiment, economic indicators, and global events that can influence market movements.
It's crucial to emphasize that my analysis and views are purely educational and should not be construed as trade recommendations. Derivatives trading demands a comprehensive understanding of risk management, market dynamics, and thorough research, which are essential for informed decision-making.
In conclusion, navigating the complexities of NIFTY50 futures and options requires a blend of data-driven insights, technical expertise, and a nuanced understanding of market behavior. As we approach the expiry of the March 2024 contract, the unfolding dynamics will offer valuable lessons and opportunities for traders and investors alike. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to explore the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets.
NIFTY 22 FEB 2024 viewIf we look at derivative data
0.80% % DECREASE, with a 3.6% addition in open interest.
if we look at volume, there is a 23% rise compared to yesterdays volume
iv down by 4 points , pcr is at low point of week and IVP AT 89 percentile .
support now at 21930-21960 while after todays cool offnow 22250 -22280 likely to act as a resistance zone
Nifty50 Weekly Observations to assist with Options StrategyThe insight:
Here's an analysis of 9 years of data of Nifty50, showing that Nifty50 gave a weekly gain >3.5% 19 times (i.e in 19 individual weeks). This is roughly 2 times a year, or 4% of times.
Ideas to apply the insight:
Credit spread, Iron Condor, etcetera etcetera. It helps to know what is the "maximum likely movement" that Nifty50 will give on a weekly closing basis to select the right "Call strike prices" to sell.
Using this insight, one can short Call Option strikes that are >3.5% away from current price at the end of the week (for next week's expiry). This is a simple way to get 1-2% returns a week.
A simple modification is to wait for Monday's day closing, and select a strike price 3.5% away from Friday's closing (to get higher premiums if Monday's closing is higher than Friday's closing).
Why this can work:
Option Sellers (usually) earn when market movements are not wild in 1 direction. Simply put, this is due to options decay (theta) and subsequent Out-of-the-money expiry of the strike price that Option Seller has shorted. We see that Nifty gives >3.5% close only about 2-3 times a year (avg of 9 years). Therefore, in theory, we are likely to make profits for 49 out of 52 weeks in a year if we choose to short "Call" strike prices that are 3.5% away from closing price on Friday.
Word of caution:
The analysis is for Nifty50 gain (i.e >3.5% move). This does not apply to Nifty50 crash. We should be mindful that crash intensity is stronger than gain intensity (because fear is greater than hope). So strong downside movements (crashes greater than 3.5% will require different analysis).
It's a fool's errand to sell naked Call Options and hold overnight, as the losses can be huge (even though temporarily). Be gentle on your heart. It is advised to always hedge a Call Option short (which is why strategies like Credit Spread, etc. exist).
Disclaimer:
This is neither backtested on softwares/tools nor tested with live trades. This idea/insight is to help build/improve your strategy based on your trading style.
Trade with poise.
Nifty 50 Upside View / Bulish Trangle FormationDate of Analysis 24/11/2023
Market is inside the Traingle forming Bullish Traingle Pattern.
Note :- Recheck The Analysis Have Your Levels Out And Tarde After Brakeout Sustain.
NIFTY ABOUT TO RETRACE 700 points.
Price has reacted to a Monthly Supply in the left side, after reacting to the Monthly Supply Price has confirmed downward potential in the Daily chart forming a Supply and there is a Fresh Monthly Demand formed and Price has to retrace into this Fresh Demand hence downmove of 700 plus points.
ENJOJY THE RIDE ! ! !
Nifty Futures Key Trading Levels for 24th Jan 2023Nifty Futures Key Trading Levels for 24th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 19th Jan2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 19th Jan2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 17th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 17th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 11th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 11th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 10th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 10th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 9th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 9th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 6th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 6th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 5th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 5th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 4th Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 4th Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 3rd Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 3rd Jan 2023
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 2nd Jan 2023NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 2nd Jan 2023
Wish You Happy and Profitable & Prosperous New to all
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 29th Dec 2022NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 29th Dec 2022
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 28th Dec 2022NiftyFutures Key Trading Levels for 28th Dec 2022
Keep Eye on Stop loss levels they will either work as Support/Resistance breakout or breakdown can give Explosive moves which are good level for Options Buying
Disclaimer: These levels are purely based on Price action/demand and supply zones & and consumed only for educational purpose & should not be taken as buy/sell recommendation. I will not be responsible for any loss/profit incurred if anyone takes trades based on my views.
Please consult your Financial Advisor before making any trading decision.
