Nifty is close to Bottom!!!In my view Nifty is close to Bottom around 23K or we are headed for a structural bear market with targets of 18K or so.....and I don't believe the second is possible given that we are in good shape as an economy.
My hypothesis - dooms day isn't around:
- at around 23200 there is a double bottom pattern and markets could rebound from here
- In my view there is a head shoulder pattern visible on Nifty and the neck line is around 23K and if this is broken then the downside is all the way down to sub 20K - which is a doom's day scenario and that won't happen
- Like I mentioned before very bullish on RIL and IT sector to ensure we don't go into dooms day!!
Fingers crossed and I think its time to start deploying if you are in cash!!
Niftyoutlook
The Wave is Shifting: Anticipate NIFTY’s Next Move!Dear Traders,
I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift.
Preliminary Analysis Overview:
The correction initiated on September 27, 2024, is a correction for the move from June 17, 2022, to September 27, 2024 (15,183.40 to 26,277.35). This move has spanned over 120 weeks (834 days) in time and 11,093.95 points in price. This necessitates a long-term and deeper correction, which is currently underway. This can be visually represented by the trend lines:
The downward trend from the all-time high continues, which is currently experiencing a corrective phase within a larger correction.
There are two potential phases for the ongoing trend:
Phase I:
The initial phase of correction primarily tested the .236 R of the aforementioned motive wave (refer to the figure below):
Following the correction, there is a correction within the correction in a larger degree (although the primary downtrend remains intact).
This internal correction is anticipated to rise further to test 0.146 R and 0.073 R of the long-term bull market (serving as potential resistances).
RI – 24,254.10
RII – 24,600 ~24,657
RIII – 25,100 ~25,120
*These values are not actual but merely levels.
Time resistances are anticipated on January 9th and February 17th (of considerable strength).
Reference:
Phase II:
Following the completion of the internal correction, the market is anticipated to resume its current downward trend in a more significant manner to test the 38.2 R (21,500 levels) + static support junction, which will be further discussed as the market evolves.
---
**Important Dates to Remember: **
Please note the following significant economic indicators and their release dates:
**January 8, 9, and 10: ** Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and employment data release (NFP).
**January 13 and 14: ** Inflation data release.
**January 13-16: ** Sales and inflation data release.
---
**Final Verdict: **
The current uptrend is considered interim. The primary trend remains downward and is anticipated to persist further and deeper. This trend is expected to test the 38.2% resistance level coinciding with the 21,360-support level.
---
**Strategy: **
Given the prevailing market conditions, adopting a bullish stance appears prudent. Key levels to monitor include 24,657 and 25,120, which are expected to be tested. It is imperative to remain vigilant and informed about potential opportunities that may arise.
------
Fellow Traders,
The creation of this valuable analytical resource has required countless hours of dedication and effort. If you find it useful, I humbly request your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be provided via this post, new posts, and through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article.
Wishing you profitable and fulfilling trading endeavors!
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must emphasize that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is crucial for you to conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial objectives and risk tolerance.
NIFTY : Trading Plan and Important levels for 13-Jan-2025Key Levels to Watch:
Profit Booking Zone: 23,775 – 23,830
Last Intraday Resistance: 23,663
Opening Resistance: 23,588 – 23,613
No Trading Zone: 23,437 – 23,470
Opening Support: 23,339
Initial Support: 23,250
Buyer's Support Zone: 23,057 – 23,094
Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above)
If Nifty opens above 23,613:
Monitor price action near the 23,663 resistance zone. A breakout with strong volume above this level can lead to a rally towards the Profit Booking Zone at 23,775–23,830. Consider initiating long positions if confirmation occurs.
If the price struggles near 23,663, wait for a rejection pattern and evaluate for potential pullback trades back to the Opening Resistance zone (23,588–23,613).
💡 Risk Management Tip: When trading gap-ups, avoid entering impulsively. Let the price settle for the first 15 minutes. Use tight stop losses for trades near resistance zones.
Flat Opening (±50 Points Around 23,437)
If Nifty opens within the No Trading Zone (23,437–23,470):
Stay cautious and avoid taking trades until the price breaks out of this consolidation range.
A breakout above 23,470 with strength can lead to a move toward the Opening Resistance zone (23,588–23,613). Enter long positions only after a successful retest of this breakout.
A breakdown below 23,437 could push the price toward Opening Support (23,339). Short positions can be initiated after confirmation.
💡 Risk Management Tip: Avoid overtrading in no-trade zones. Patience is key to spotting high-probability setups.
Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below)
If Nifty opens below 23,339:
Watch for buying opportunities in the Initial Support zone (23,250). If the price forms a bullish reversal pattern, consider entering long trades targeting the Opening Resistance zone (23,588–23,613).
If selling pressure persists and Nifty moves toward the Buyer's Support Zone (23,057–23,094), this zone becomes crucial for long trades with tight stop losses.
A breach of 23,057 with strong volume can lead to further downside. Avoid long trades until support is regained.
💡 Risk Management Tip: In gap-down scenarios, avoid catching falling knives. Use smaller lot sizes and wait for strong reversal signals before entering trades.
Summary & Conclusion
For a gap up, focus on levels above 23,613 and monitor the resistance zones carefully for breakouts or rejections.
For a flat opening, wait for a breakout or breakdown from the No Trading Zone (23,437–23,470) to avoid false moves.
For a gap down, be patient around Initial Support (23,250) or Buyer's Support Zone (23,057–23,094) for reversal trades.
💡 Options Trading Tip: Use OTM strikes near key levels for intraday trades. Always hedge your positions, especially in volatile conditions.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before taking any trades. Trade responsibly!
#Nifty50 What Lies Ahead for Nifty & S&p500,13-17th Jan 2025The Nifty Index experienced a sharp decline this week, closing at 23,431, a significant 570 points below the previous week's close. While the index reached a high of 24,089, it ultimately succumbed to selling pressure, finding support at 23,344. As forecasted, the Nifty traded within the predicted range of 24,500 to 23,300. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the index to remain confined within a range of 23,950 to 22,900 .
Given the prevailing bearish sentiment, a potential short-term bounce could unfold next week to lure in unsuspecting buyers before a renewed downward move. Historically, whenever the Nifty has breached the support of the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (WEMA50), it has typically undergone a 5-6% correction. Based on the current level of 23,431, the Nifty may find crucial support near the 22,200-22,400 zone.
Turning to the US markets, the S&P 500 found support at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA100) level of 5,817 and closed at 5,827. The upcoming week will be pivotal. If the S&P 500 successfully defends the 5,807 low, a potential rally towards the 5,926-5,944 range could materialize. However, a weekly close below the 5,800 mark would signal a significant bearish turn for global markets, potentially triggering a deeper correction towards the 5,637 or even 5,504 levels.
Wishing readers a very happy Lohri and Makar Sakranti.
NIFTY : Trading Plan and Levels for 10-Jan-2025
Introduction:
Nifty has been consolidating within a defined range, with 23,622 acting as immediate resistance and 23,490 providing opening support. The "No Trade Zone" marked around 23,557-23,622 highlights areas of indecision where price movement lacks clarity. This trading plan evaluates different opening scenarios, including gap-up, flat, and gap-down openings, considering a gap of 100+ points.
Scenarios for 10-Jan-2025:
Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above 23,622):
If Nifty opens above 23,622:
Monitor Retest of 23,622: A retest and hold of this level can be a potential opportunity to go long, with the first target at 23,787 and a stretch target at 23,843. Place a stop loss below 23,600 to protect capital.
Failure to Hold 23,622: If the price fails to sustain above 23,622, expect a correction toward 23,557. Wait for a reversal signal before taking any fresh positions.
Options Trading Tip: For a gap-up opening, consider buying call options close to the money if 23,622 holds as support. Avoid buying options with low liquidity.
Flat Opening (Near 23,557):
If Nifty opens near 23,557:
Focus on Breakout or Breakdown: Let the price action settle for the first 30 minutes. A breakout above 23,622 offers a long opportunity, with targets at 23,787-23,843.
Break Below 23,490: A breach of 23,490 could lead to a bearish move toward 23,364. Avoid long positions unless there’s a recovery signal around 23,490.
Risk Management Tip: Use proper position sizing. Avoid risking more than 2% of your capital on any single trade.
Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below 23,490):
If Nifty opens below 23,490:
Watch for Reversal at 23,364: This support zone may attract buyers. Look for bullish reversal patterns to go long, targeting 23,490.
Break Below 23,364: A breach below 23,364 could lead to a significant downside toward 23,251. Aggressive short positions can be taken only after confirmation with a stop loss above 23,364.
Options Trading Tip: For a bearish gap-down, consider buying put options near resistance levels or selling call spreads for a safer risk-reward ratio.
Summary and Conclusion:
Nifty’s price action around 23,622 and 23,490 will determine the market’s trend for the day. Avoid trading within the "No Trade Zone" (23,557-23,622) unless a clear breakout or breakdown is visible. Risk management is key, especially in volatile conditions. Always use stop losses and stick to your trading plan.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trades. Trade responsibly.
Nifty Intraday Trade Setup | 9th January 2025Nifty opened with a gap-up, faced resistance exactly at our buy level 23750 and came down. Nifty broke sell level 23640 around 10:15 and hit all our targets on downside.
We have seen recovery from 23500 levels in second half. Tomorrow, Buy Nifty if sustains above 23750 for the targets of 23800 and above marked level. On the other side, Sell Nifty if sustains below 23630 for the targets of 23580 and below marked level on the chart.
Expectations: Range-bound day
Intraday Levels:
Buy Above - 23750
Sell Below - 23630
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
InvestPro India
Bearish or Bounce Ahead?
Here’s my detailed analysis and outlook for Nifty based on daily and weekly charts:
Daily Chart Insights
Trend:
Nifty is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lows since breaking 24,000.
Currently consolidating near 23,500, which acts as a critical support zone.
Volume Profile:
High selling volume on down days shows persistent institutional pressure.
Buyers are defending 23,500, but no strong confirmation of reversal yet.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
23,800-23,850: Immediate resistance with heavy Call OI.
24,050: Higher timeframe resistance.
Support:
23,500: Immediate support.
23,400-23,350: Breach could lead to more downside.
Indicators:
RSI: Near oversold (~40), but no bullish divergence.
Moving Averages: Below 50-DMA and 200-DMA, confirming bearish momentum.
Weekly Chart Insights
Trend:
Downtrend continues, with Nifty failing to reclaim critical levels like 24,200.
Last week’s bearish candle shows sellers remain dominant.
Volume Profile:
Increased selling volume on red candles confirms institutional sell-off.
Buyers look weak below 23,500.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
24,000-24,200: Strong supply zone.
24,400: Major resistance for any upside rally.
Support:
23,400-23,350: Breakdown could lead to 23,000.
23,000: Psychological and historical support zone.
Indicators:
RSI: Around 35, nearing oversold territory but with downside room.
MACD: Bearish crossover confirms momentum on the downside.
Prediction for the Month
Bearish Case (High Probability):
Failure to reclaim 23,800 could continue the downtrend.
Breach of 23,500 may lead to:
Target 1: 23,350.
Target 2: 23,000.
Bullish Case (Low Probability):
Breakout above 23,800 could trigger a short-term rally:
Target 1: 24,050.
Target 2: 24,400.
Outlook:
The market remains moderately bearish for the next month unless strong buying emerges at 23,500 or a breakout above 23,800 occurs.
What’s your view? Let’s discuss!
Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Please trade responsibly.
Prospects of Further downside in Nifty hanging by the thread. Pretty bad closing by Nifty today which has further downside in Nifty hanging by the thread. As you can see we are near the bottom of the pennant structure. If the downside is broken by any chance possibility of further downside can not be ruled out. However if the support of today's low is maintained possibility of upside will open up. Silver lining in the cloud is DII being on buying side and RSI has take an upward turn with closing above yellow line.
The supports for Nifty now are at 23463 Bollinger lower band support, 23380 and 23365 (Final Support).
Resistances on the upper side for Nifty are at 23682 (Bollinger mid band), 23722 (Mother line resistance), 23787 (Bollinger upper band), 23889 and finally 23980 (Father line resistance). Above 23980 closing the door for further up side will open. With Medium term targets being at 24073, 24103, 24232, 24302 and finally 24401. Above 24401 closing Bulls can jump back to business.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 09/01/2025Flat opening expected in nifty. After opening expected downside rally from the resistance zone near 23750 level. This downside movement can goes upto 23550 level. Any bullish rally only expected if nifty starts trading and sustain above 23800 level. This bullish rally can goes upto 24050 level after the breakout. Downside below 23500 level sharp fall expected in nifty upto the 23200 level.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 09-Jan-2025Trading Plan for NIFTY - 9-Jan-2025
Intro - Plan vs. Actual for 8-Jan-2025
Yesterday's plan highlighted key levels, with 23,483 - 23518 acting as support and excalty from those level saw a smart recovery. and ended up at flat not. The yellow trend marked the sideways movement, while bearish momentum was evident in the red trend zone.
Today's chart builds upon the prior analysis, with updated levels and a strategy for all opening scenarios.
Trading Scenarios for 9-Jan-2025
Gap-Up Opening (Above 23,860)
If Nifty opens above 23,860 , monitor for rejection near the Profit Booking Zone (24,070) . Look for a bearish hourly candle close in this zone to consider selling opportunities, targeting 23,817 (opening resistance). If strength persists, expect a bullish breakout, targeting 24,150+ .
Action Plan: Wait for rejection candles in the profit booking zone for a potential short. For bullish trades, buy only on sustained breaks above 24,070 .
Risk Management: Use 23,950 as a stop-loss for shorts and 23,860 for longs, based on hourly closes.
Flat Opening (Between 23,611-23,817)
A flat opening around the 23,675 zone requires caution. Watch for price action at 23,817 . A failure to break this resistance could lead to bearish moves, targeting 23,611 and 23,545 . Conversely, a breakout above 23,817 may turn bullish, with upside potential toward 23,860 .
Action Plan: Wait for price confirmation near 23,817 . Use stop-losses 20-30 points above or below breakout/rejection levels.
Risk Management: Trade with minimal risk exposure during the opening 30 minutes to let the trend settle.
Gap-Down Opening (Below 23,545)
In case of a gap-down, observe the 23,545 level for signs of support. Failure to hold may lead Nifty toward the Last Intraday Support Zone (23,432) . Bulls may defend this zone aggressively, offering a potential buying opportunity.
Action Plan: Look for long opportunities only near 23,432 , with targets back toward 23,545-23,611 . If selling persists, avoid aggressive longs below 23,432 .
Risk Management: Use 23,400 as a strict stop-loss for longs in the gap-down scenario.
Tips for Options Trading
Focus on weekly ATM options to minimize premium decay.
Avoid holding positions during volatile periods unless you have a strict exit strategy.
Use spreads to hedge directional trades, especially in uncertain market conditions.
Summary and Conclusion
The market's reaction to the key levels will determine the trend.
Respect the zones: 23,817 as resistance and 23,611 as support.
Patience during the opening 30 minutes can lead to better trade entries.
Yellow indicates sideways, green indicates bullish, and red indicates bearish trends.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
Parallel Channel hourly candles suggests Nifty is delicate zone.Parallel Channel of Nifty suggest that we are in delicate zone with shadow of the candle being positive. Nifty has thrice taken support on the channel bottom as you can see in the chart. A strong support zone for Nifty is seeing strong buying emerging near the channel bottom. This strong support zone is between 23509 and 23263.
The Three important resistances however are not allowing Nifty to grow further. These 3 resistance are:
1) Mother line resistance near 23775.
2) Father and trend line combine resistance near 24010.
3) Third important resistance for Nifty to conquer will be near 24288 which is the mid channel resistance.
When we will get a closing above 24288 the Bull can breath a little easy and try and push Nifty upwards towards 24510, 24779 or even above 25K.
The zone between 25033 and 25200 will again be a tough zone to conquer as the Nifty will again hit the top of the parallel channel.
Conclusion: All is good till we do not get a closing below 23K levels. Below 23K levels weekly closing Bears will have position to overpower the market and drag Nifty further down. For long term investors this is good opportunity to invest big go long and hold on.
Today ONGC, Reliance, ITC, Asian Paints, Dr Reddy, Wipro and TCS are the few large cap stocks which saw buying.
The laggards for Nifty today were Apollo Hospitals, Trent, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Auto, ultratech and few other Large cap stocks.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 08-JAN-2025Nifty Trading Plan for 08-Jan-2025
Intro: Review of 07-Jan-2025 Plan
Yesterday's trading plan accurately highlighted the Opening Resistance Zone (23,849-23,888) , which acted as a cap for bullish momentum, and the Opening Support Zone (23,673-23,604) , which provided a bounce. The market respected these levels with a predominantly sideways movement (Yellow Trend). The Best Buying Zone (23,251-23,362) remained untouched, keeping the downside potential intact.
For 08-Jan-2025, we focus on three opening scenarios: Gap-Up, Flat, or Gap-Down, with actionable strategies and clear risk management guidelines.
Opening Scenarios:
Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above previous close):
If Nifty opens above 23,888 , the Opening Resistance Zone (23,849-23,888) will likely act as a critical area.
A breakout above 23,888 with volume could push Nifty toward the next resistance at 24,081 . Go long on confirmed breakout candles with small retracements.
A rejection near 23,888 could result in a pullback to test 23,673-23,604 . Wait for reversal confirmation before entering short positions.
less
Copy code
Risk Management Tip: Avoid aggressive CE buying after a large gap-up; instead, use intraday dip-buying strategies or spreads for better risk control.
Flat Opening (Near previous close):
A flat opening around 23,694 could lead to a range-bound session (Yellow Trend). This scenario requires patience and precise execution:
A bullish breakout above 23,849 could lead to upside momentum, targeting 23,888 and 24,081 .
On the downside, a breakdown below 23,604 could initiate bearish momentum, with targets at 23,483-23,518 .
vbnet
Copy code
Risk Management Tip: Use option straddle strategies to benefit from potential sideways movements. Avoid overtrading in choppy market conditions.
Gap-Down Opening (100+ points below previous close):
If Nifty opens below 23,604 , focus on the Opening Support Zone (23,483-23,518) for potential reversals.
A bounce from 23,483-23,518 can provide a buying opportunity, targeting 23,604 and above.
A breakdown below 23,483 may trigger a bearish trend (Red Trend) toward the Best Buying Zone (23,251-23,362) . Wait for proper confirmation before initiating short trades.
less
Copy code
Risk Management Tip: For gap-down scenarios, use PE options or bear put spreads with defined risks. Be cautious of sharp reversals after a gap-down.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zones: 23,673-23,604, 23,483-23,518, and 23,251-23,362.
Resistance Zones: 23,849-23,888 and 24,081.
Summary & Conclusion:
Nifty is trading within a structured range, offering clear opportunities for intraday trades based on levels. Stick to disciplined execution, and do not chase trades without confirmation. Use options strategies to manage risk and maximize returns in volatile conditions.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Nifty Intraday Trade Setup | 6th January 2025Nifty opened flat, morning opening price was the day high and Nifty started falling soon after open. Nifty made low around 23975 and closed new day low.
Tomorrow, Buy Nifty if sustains above 24055 for the targets of 24105 and above marked level. On the other side, Sell Nifty if sustains below 23920 for the targets of 23850 and below marked level on the chart.
Expectations: Volatile day
Intraday Levels:
Buy Above - 24055
Sell Below - 23920
To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis.
Happy Trading!
InvestPro India
Fibonacci Support & Resistances for Nifty (Medium term outlook).Important Fibonacci support for Nifty drawn on daily line chart of Nifty is at 23349. Below 23349 closing bears can have a field day and can create havoc but that looks less likely as of now. The closing today is 23207 which is just above 200 days EMA or the father line which is a good sign. Father line was at 23700. On the upside the Fibonacci resistance for Nifty seem to be at 23902, 24170 (Important Mother line Resistance) 24236, 24467, 24780 and finally Fibonacci Golden ratio from the current levels is at 25185. It will take some doing from the Bulls to close above this level. This presents the medium time frame outlook for the Nifty.
RSI indicator also seems to have taken an upward swing but mid level is yet to be crossed for that indicator.
MACD indicator suggests that Moving averages are fighting hard to converge and bring back some bullish momentum into the market to infuse some life into the Bull who are trying to come out of comma.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 07/01/2025Expected nifty will open gap up in today's session near 23800 level. After opening any bullish movement expected if it's starts trading and sustain above 23800 level. Below 23750 downside rally expected upto the 23550 and this rally expected for further 200-250+ points movements in case nifty gives breakdown of 23450 level. 23450-23550 in this range possible some consolidation movements in market.
Support, Resistance and Bollinger Band suggest limited downside.I have just drawn Supports, Resistance, Mother, Father lines and added Bollinger band to Nifty chart. The indication is limited downside for now in Nifty unless the Chinese Virus is overplayed in the market by the bears and other forces. My discussion with medical fraternity and other knowledgeable people suggest that the threat of HPMV is overplayed and mortality rates might not be as high as COVID in the recent virus outbreak. This is the information I have however I advise utmost caution would wish you to verify the information with friends in the medical field in your knowhow. Currently Bollinger band is not suggesting a heavy downside. However things will be more clear by end of this week as the market plays out. Not more than 2 to 5% (max) down side is visible to me in the short term unless there is a global catastrophe of massive order. RSI has taken a turn hopefully soon it will embark towards bullishness.
Supports for Nifty Remains at: 23249, 23466, 23555. Below 23249 flood gates for further downside can open.
Resistances for Nifty: 23720, 23795, 23855 (Mother line or 50 Hours EMA), 23942 (Mid-Bollinger band level), 24061 (Father line or 200 Hours EMA), 24146, 24231 and finally 24326 (Bollinger band top).
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Market Analysis and Trade Setup for Nifty (07/01/2025)Market Bias for 07/01/2025:
The market remains bearish as long as the price stays below 23,700. However, potential opportunities for both bullish pullbacks and bearish continuations exist based on key levels and conditions.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance (Supply Zone):
23,700 - 23,743: Fair Value Gap (FVG) and liquidity rejection zone.
If this level is breached, watch for a move toward 23,800 or 23,900.
Immediate Support (Demand Zone):
23,500 - 23,540: Strong demand zone from liquidity sweeps.
A breakdown below this level could lead to significant downside.
Critical Levels:
PDH: 23,742.
PDL: 23,459.
POC (High Volume Node): 23,600.
Trade Setups for Tomorrow
Bullish Trade Setup (Reversal Play)
Entry: Above 23,700 (FVG Retest).
Stop Loss: Below 23,650.
Target 1: 23,800.
Target 2: 23,900.
Confirmation Indicators:
RSI crosses above 50.
VWAP breakout with buy-side volume.
Bearish Trade Setup (Breakdown Play)
Entry: Below 23,530 ( liquidity sweep).
Stop Loss: Above 23,600.
Target 1: 23,450.
Target 2: 23,400.
Confirmation Indicators:
RSI remains below 40.
Strong sell-side volume below support levels.
Indicators to Monitor
VWAP: Price action above or below VWAP will dictate intraday bias.
RSI: Look for momentum shifts near key levels (above 50 for bullish, below 40 for bearish).
Volume: Watch for spikes near 23,600 (POC) to confirm institutional activity.
Key Observations
Bearish Bias:
Price remains bearish below 23,700; expect continuation toward 23,500 - 23,400.
Bullish Pullback:
Sustained buying above 23,700 could trigger short covering toward 23,900.
Final Thoughts
Avoid Choppy Zones: Between 23,600 - 23,700, price action may remain indecisive without volume.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and plan for 06-Jan-2025 Nifty Trading Plan for 6-Jan-2025
Introduction
The chart shared yesterday highlighted key zones and potential movements. The Opening Resistance Zone of 24,312 acted as a strong supply area, while the Support Zone between 23,970-24,016 was well respected. Actual price movement closely aligned with the predicted Yellow (Sideways) and Green (Bullish) trends, allowing traders to capitalize on the directional moves.
Today’s chart brings us new levels and strategies for varying opening scenarios. Let's dive into the details for 6-Jan-2025!
Trading Plan for 6-Jan-2025
Gap-Up Opening (100+ Points Above 24,016):
If Nifty opens with a significant gap-up:
Immediate resistance lies at 24,170-24,196. Wait for price action near this level.
Bullish Scenario: If prices sustain above 24,196 for 15 minutes, enter a long position with targets at 24,312 and 24,550. Use a stop-loss below 24,170.
Sideways Possibility: If price struggles near 24,170, expect a sideways trend, as shown in Yellow. Avoid overtrading here.
Flat Opening (Near 23,990):
If Nifty opens flat:
The key Opening Support Zone is at 23,973-23,902. This area serves as a no-trade zone unless there is a clear breakout or breakdown.
Bullish Scenario: Look for sustained buying above 24,016, targeting 24,170 initially and then 24,312.
Bearish Scenario: If prices fall below 23,902, expect a move toward the next support zone at 23,814. Use a tight stop-loss above 23,902.
Gap-Down Opening (100+ Points Below 23,970):
If Nifty opens with a gap-down:
Immediate focus should be on the First Support Zone at 23,814.
Bearish Scenario: If prices fail to hold 23,814, expect a sharp move toward 23,623 (Last Intraday Support).
Bullish Reversal Opportunity: If prices recover quickly and reclaim 23,970, consider going long for a target of 24,016. Stop-loss below 23,814.
Avoid aggressive shorting unless price action confirms weakness below 23,814.
Risk Management Tips for Options Traders:
Use smaller lot sizes to manage risk during volatile openings.
Focus on ATM (At the Money) options to reduce premium decay in uncertain conditions.
Avoid trading during the first 15 minutes unless clear trend confirmation is seen.
Always maintain a stop-loss and adhere to it.
Summary and Conclusion:
Today’s plan focuses on the key zones of resistance and support. The Opening Resistance Zone at 24,170-24,196 will be crucial for bullish continuation, while the Support Zones at 23,814 and 23,623 must be monitored for bearish breakdowns. Follow the Yellow, Green, and Red trends for guidance, and remember to prioritize risk management over aggressive trades.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders are advised to conduct their analysis or consult a financial advisor before executing any trades.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 03-Jan-2024
Intro: Previous Day's Plan vs. Actual Chart Movement
In the trading plan for 2-Jan-2025, key levels worked exactly as predicted in plan
Price movement respected these levels, The bullish structure remained intact for the day, with significant opportunities for intraday gains.
Trading Plan for 3-Jan-2025
If Market Opens Gap Up (100+ Points Above Previous Close):
A gap-up opening above the Opening Resistance Zone (24,312) signals strength. Monitor price behavior for consolidation or sustained trading above this level. Sustaining above 24,312 could lead to a move towards the Last Resistance for Intraday (24,559) .
If prices fail to hold above 24,312 and retrace, expect a pullback toward the Opening Support/Resistance Zone (24,159-24,167) .
📈 Action Plan:
Look for long positions above 24,312 after a 15-minute candle close. Use stop loss at 24,167.
Avoid short positions unless there’s clear rejection with bearish confirmation.
📊 Trend Indicators:
Green: Bullish Move Expected.
If Market Opens Flat (Near Previous Close):
Observe price action near the Opening Support/Resistance Zone (24,159-24,167) . Sustained trading above this zone could trigger a move toward 24,312 .
A breakdown below 24,159 would indicate weakness, and prices could test the Opening Support Zone (24,016-24,058) .
📈 Action Plan:
For long trades, wait for price to break above 24,167 and confirm with volume. Use stop loss at 24,016.
For short trades, consider entry below 24,159 with a target of 24,016 and a stop loss at 24,167.
📊 Trend Indicators:
Yellow: Sideways Trend Expected.
If Market Opens Gap Down (100+ Points Below Previous Close):
A gap-down opening near 23,970 or the lower end of the Opening Support Zone (24,016-24,058) might provide a recovery opportunity. Monitor price action for a bounce back to 24,159.
If prices fail to sustain above 23,970, expect further downside toward the Last Intraday Support (23,815) .
📈 Action Plan:
For long positions, wait for recovery above 23,970 with bullish confirmation. Use stop loss at 23,815.
For short trades, consider entry below 23,970 with a target of 23,815 and a stop loss at 24,016.
📊 Trend Indicators:
Red: Bearish Move Expected.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Always calculate position sizing based on risk tolerance.
Use stop-loss orders to minimize losses, especially in high-volatility scenarios.
Avoid overtrading; wait for clear confirmation of price action before entering trades.
For intraday options, consider exiting positions by 3:15 PM to avoid overnight risk.
Summary and Conclusion:
The key levels for Nifty on 3-Jan-2025 are:
Resistance: 24,312 and 24,559.
Support: 24,016-24,058 and 23,815.
Use price action and trend behavior (Green for bullish, Yellow for sideways, and Red for bearish) to guide your trades. Stick to the plan, and prioritize risk management.
Disclaimer:
This trading plan is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please consult your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Nifty Stages Massive Comeback. But Will The Mother Line Relent? Nifty has staged a massive comeback today on the back of FII buying today. Nifty made a high of 24226 but Mother line Resistance (50 day's EMA at 24221) pushed it back a bit and it ended the day at 24188. If the mother line relents tomorrow and if we can get a weekly closing above 24221 tomorrow Bulls have potential to take the momentum forward into January with a possibility of Budget rally.
The supports for Nifty remain at 23926, 23698 (Father Line Support of 200 day's EMA), 23494 and finally 23238. Below 23238 all hell can break loose and bears will have potential to Pull Nifty further down.
Resistances on the upper side remain at 24221 (Mother Line Resistance of 50 day's EMA) followed by 24389, 24600 and 24876 before Nifty snatches back 25K levels.
Shadow of the candle remains neutral to positive but it can turn neutral or even negative if Mother line resistance comes into play again. The best possibility for Nifty remains if it can get a gap up opening above 24221. This can happen if we get good support from International indices and Gift Nifty tonight. Tomorrow's closing will be very important as it is the first weekly closing for the year.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 02-Jan-2025WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR 2025
Introduction
In the previous trading session, we analyzed Nifty's key support and resistance levels for 1-Jan-2025. The chart provided a clear view of potential price movements under various scenarios. Yellow trends indicated sideways movement, green trends represented bullish behavior, and red trends highlighted bearish trends. Based on the chart for 1-Jan-2025, the actual price action unfolded as expected, staying within the highlighted zones and offering valuable insights for traders.
Trading Plan for 2-Jan-2025
Gap-Up Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens with a gap-up above 23,837 (No Trade Zone's upper band), observe the first 15-minute candle for confirmation.
If the price sustains above 23,837, expect a bullish trend targeting the Resistance Zone at 23,998 and further towards 24,068 for profit booking.
Place a stop loss just below 23,837 to manage risk and protect capital.
If the price fails to sustain above 23,837, expect a potential pullback towards the No Trade Zone. Monitor closely for any reversals within the zone.
Avoid taking positions inside the No Trade Zone unless a clear breakout or breakdown is visible.
Flat Opening
If Nifty opens flat near 23,758 (current market price), observe the price action for the first 15 minutes.
A breakout above 23,837 indicates bullish momentum towards 23,998 and 24,068, following the same plan as the gap-up scenario.
A breakdown below 23,699 (No Trade Zone's lower band) may signal a bearish move towards the Opening Support Zone at 23,617–23,640 and further towards 23,537.
Place a stop loss just above the breakdown or breakout levels to manage risk.
Wait for a confirmation candle (closing basis) before entering trades to avoid false signals.
Gap-Down Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens with a gap-down below 23,699, observe the first 15-minute candle for confirmation.
If the price sustains below 23,699, expect a bearish continuation targeting the Opening Support Zone at 23,617–23,640 and further towards the critical support at 23,537 (reversal zone).
Place a stop loss above 23,699 to manage risk.
If the price fails to sustain below 23,699, anticipate a pullback towards 23,837 and monitor for potential reversals in this region.
Avoid taking impulsive trades at open; let the levels guide your entries and exits.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Always use stop losses to minimize potential losses.
Avoid over-leveraging; trade within your capital limits and risk tolerance.
Monitor implied volatility and time decay when trading options.
Diversify your trades to reduce exposure to single-direction risks.
Stick to your plan and avoid emotional decisions.
Summary and Conclusion
The trading plan for 2-Jan-2025 revolves around identifying key levels and understanding price behavior under various opening scenarios (Gap Up, Flat, or Gap Down). The No Trade Zone highlights areas to avoid unless clear trends are visible. Follow the highlighted trends: yellow for sideways, green for bullish, and red for bearish movements. By employing proper risk management and adhering to this plan, traders can make informed decisions and navigate market conditions effectively.
Disclaimer : I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Nifty Review & Analysis - DailyPrice Action :
Nifty opened at previous day's close and tested pivot level finding buying around 23565 levels and rallied almost 200 points till 23775 levels and saw small profit booking. Post noon saw buying around 23700 levels and tested above 23800 and saw small profit booking towards end of the day loosing momentum. If sustained below 23800 can again test 23700-23730 levels and above 23820 if sustained can test 23950 levels.
Trend:
Nifty formed Higher High and Higher Low suggesting Long Trend
Options Data:
23700-800 Puts added Open Interest showing support. 23700 and 23900 CE shedded OI, don't have much resistance till 24050-100 levels.
Futures Data:
Nifty Futures closed positively with Increase in Open Interest suggesting Bullish
Outlook for Next Session:
Nifty looks Bullish above 23800 for tgt 24000-24050. (for next wkly expiry)
Positons:
Wait for 30min candle close above 23800 to go long for tgt 24000.