Trendline resistance 21800 works again to pull Nifty downTrendline resistance 21800 works again to pull Nifty down. This only shows that the strength of rally decreasing with extreme increase in volatility. There was a news of situation escalating in Middle East and US striving to take some action against the mess created by some disruptive forces in the Red sea. With this news there was selling and profit booking seen specially from the FIIs and Retail investors however DII remain net buyers and gave support to the market near 21500. How much support they can provide going deeper into the week is the question.
Nifty Supports will be at: 21500, 21448 (Major Support 200 hours EMA), 21258 and finally 21152. Below 21152 bears will start licking their fingers.
Nifty Resistances are ate: 21562 (Major resistance 50 hours EMA), 21660, 21723 (Major trendline resistance) and 21800-21820 range.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty--Consolidation or Bullish??After a strong Bearishness from the supply zone @21700 levels price gives us some retracement to enter again shortside...
If tomorrow price opens up try to be on short side from 21550-21500 levels for targets of 21000 levels.
Liquidity lies above these levels.
If consolidation happens at bottom levels then we have a chance of fallback to the bottom support at 21000 and 20800 levels be tested soon.keep in long from this levels. we have a chance of continuation down side possibility is more,trade with less quantity.
Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-29-Jan-24 to 02-Feb-24Nifty Short , Medium & Long Term View-29-Jan-24 to 02-Feb-24
Nifty closed at 21352 ( Prev Close 21571 ) and touched low & high of 21136 & 21736.
RSI and stochastics levels ( 47% & 21 % Respectively). Stochastics is in oversold zone.
Market saw huge volatility in the last two week of around 1000 Points, especially fluctuated after results of HDFC bank.
Nifty IT (36496) -To hold. major support at 34918 /34000.
Nifty bank ( 44866) if further move down support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). Purchase on Dips.
Profit booking upto 30% was suggested in the last 1.5 months, Cash is useful to pick the right stocks currently to pick the right stock.
Refer to detailed comments in the bottom.
Nifty- Short Term ( Bearish)- 21300 ( trend Line support Provided was majr support last week.
Resistances are at 21439 ( Fib Resistance), 21639 ( MA 21 days) , 22000, 22117, 22155
Support at 21300 ( trend line Support), 20800-21000 have strong Fib Support and trend line support as shown in the chart.
Nifty Medium Term & long Term ( Neutral)- Can buy at 20800 -21000 level.
Target Fibonacci extended resistance is near to 22500 as shown in chart. nifty will move to next target 22308 (Fib Resistance)/22521.
Support at 20225 (prev high), 20000 ( Fib Resistance)
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 22500 to 18800 expected till mid of 2024.
however if Q3 results are good, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance).
Comments (28-Jan-24) :
Earlier last 2-3 months , purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. But to a surprise Nifty IT moved up 4-5% up as US economy is recovering. Last two weeks IT was little down but comparatively lesser than Nifty Index and nifty Bank.
Simillarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last two weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy last week. Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term.
As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till Feb budget & till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
In Feb, Temporary budget most likely to favour income tax payers inorder to keep in mind of elections and to concentrate on infra (Railways & Road). Infra Stocks, undervalued bluechip stocks can be considered.
Very good Daily candle showing the fightback of NiftyWe saw a very good Daily candle showing the fightback of Nifty a closing above important résistance of 21421 indicates that we might be heading towards 21500+ tomorrow if global factors keep the things bright. In this case the resistance that Nifty will face will be at 21582(Major resistance), followed by 21684 and 21772. On the lower side the supports for Nifty will be at 21412, 21137 and 21080 (Major support 50 days EMA and Mid-Channel resistance). Things are poised interestingly with shadow the candle looking slightly positive for the start tomorrow.
Strong Resistance ensures steep fall in Nifty. Strong Resistance zone of 21607 to 21857 sends Nifty in a downward spiral and makes it topple towards 50 days EMA(Mother Line). This has lead to frantic fall in RSI of Nifty. On 15th January the Rsi of Nifty was 73.88 today it is 44.88. Still little bit of cool down in RSI can not be ruled out. The immediate support for Nifty is near 21218. This is a weak support which may not hold but you never exactly know. The next support if 21218 is broken will be near 21065. 21065 in not only the Mother Line (50 days EMA) but also the mid channel support on the daily chart making it a very strong support. If 50 EMA does not hold the bears will tighten the grip on the stock market and may try their best to bring the Nifty to 20794. Holding 21065 or 20794 will be very important and the levels to watch out for. If these do not sustain we may see 20297, 19849 or even 19738.
NIFTY--@Trendline Retest??Nifty broken the major trendline
In the previous sessions price is retested the same trendline and showing Bearishness from the supply zone.On bottom side strong demand zones lies at 20800 levels.
If this trendline acts as resistance we will observe a continuous Bearishness in nifty upto 20800 levels.
If we observe consolidation between 21700-21300, will expect a fall below 21300 and then have a rise again towards ATH.
Note:
If trendline failed to push down side, liquidity grab above the trendline will observe and a fall happens again.
Mid-Channel Resistance again stops Nifty and pushes it down50 hours EMA (Mother line)(Those who know my Mother/Father/Small Child story can understand it very well) was a very important resistance to be crossed and held today but Nifty could not hold on to it after crossing it once. In addition to the 50 EMA there was also Mid-Channel resistance. which could not be crossed. Additionally there is a trend line resistnace, Nifty has to cross this for further growth. There was lack of volume and next week is a 3 day week so lot of traders/investors did not carry long positions. The support and resistance zones remain at:
Support Zone : 21539, 21430(Very important 200 hours EMA) support (Father Line) and finally 21285 (Channel bottom support). Bears can tighten their grip below this point.
Resistance Zones : 21600, 21674 (50 Hours EMA)(Mother Line), 21756 (Mid Channel resistance) and finally 21847. Above 21847 Bulls will strengthen their grip.
NIFTY--Supply zone@21700 ??After a strong fall, expecting some retracement in nifty.
on topside supply zone is identified at 21650-21700 levels.
so liquidity is lies above and below this levels,
after testing these levels again have a chance of fallback to test the demand zones at 21300 levels and at 20800 levels.
If 21300 level fails to push it upside, quick drop and rise will see in coming sessions.
so this week mostly in this range 21700-21300 levels.
Be careful, long after 21700 short below 21300.
Nifty trapped between strong support and strong resistanceRight now Nifty seems to be trapped between strong support and strong resistance. The support zone is 21415 to 21581. Resistance zone is 21670 to 21847. Nifty needs little bit of consolidation in the range. Results from various companies will drive the nifty forward in either direction. The interim budget is also around the corner that can also be a guiding light for Nifty. Wild swings in either direction in addition to Geo-Political events can also turn the fate of Nifty and things can turn cloudy in a session or two. My advice for now will be stick to large caps and selective mid and small caps with ethical management and strong fundamentals and avoid companies with low durability, high debt, high pledging and questionable ethics. Which should be the case anyway but more so with Macro and Micro global situations and events which are in progress and around the corner.
Nifty trying to form bottom after taking channel bottom supportNifty trying to form a bottom after taking channel bottom support. Nity touched the bottom of our hourly channel and trying to consolidate in the zone. Major support for Nifty from here will be 21405 (200 Hours EMA) (Father Line) and Channel bottom 21285. If 21285 is broken Nifty may fall further till 21089 or even 20967. On the way up major resistances that Nifty will face now are 21544, 21650 and 21715 (Major Resistance 50 Hours EMA). Also note that Mid channel channel resistance is also near 21740 region. So 21715 to 21740 will be major resistance on the way up. Nifty might try to stage a recovery tomorrow but let us see if the levels hold. Weekly closing is important with Geo-Political tensions rising between Iran and Pakistan. As well as Afghanistan and Pakistan.
NIFTY--Breakout or Fakeout??Nifty is trending higher and higher...
Closing is given above the ATH again,
If this is a breakout, in the next session it will continue its momentum higher again.
If it is a fakeout,buyers trapped in today's bullish move.
If a retest to the previous ATH Is given,and continues, go long, otherwise keep in short side, below the channel again.
Nifty closed strongly above 50 hours EMA more upside possibleNifty closed strongly above 50 hours EMA after testing exactly the channel bottom drawn and shown by us from last few days more upside is possible but important resistances for Nifty to cross on the way up will be 21661, 21718 and 21768. closing above 21768 will open the doors for 22K+ again with resistances at 21830 and 21927. Supports for Nifty on the lower side are at 21604, 21514 and 21457. Below 21457 bears wake up again. Things look positive for a good start tomorrow but later in the day there can be some resistance + Selling pressure at 21661 and 21718 or 21768.
Nifty felt the heat again in the trend line resistance. As you can see in the chart Nifty started the day brilliantly jumped above 50 Hours EMA and was going up in a rapid pace wiping all the losses of yesterday till it hit the trend line resistance which was near 21725 and immediately fell relentlessly giving a big red candle for the day. Only saving grace was it ended in Green at the close of the day again finding the support near 21500 this time at 21517. Support and resistance for Nifty now will be at 21619 50 Hours EMA (tough resistance), 21700 and 21768 another tough mid channel resistance. Supports on the lower side are near 21500, 21389 and finally 21235. Volatility and Profit booking at higher levels in selected counters in addition to buying at lower levels again may remain the theme for some time now.
Nifty Showing weakness and near important support level.Nifty was repelled from the resistance zone near 21768 and got thrashed throughout the day as RSI had to cool down. Further downside is possible if support zone of 21500 to 21425 is broken. In this case further down side upto 21389 or 21235 is possible. The worst case scenario as of now looks near 21143. In case 21143 is broken Bears can strengthen their grip and bring the index under their control. Resistances zone on the up side is between 21593 and 21613. Further upside upto 21686 or 21768 can be seen in case we are able to close above 21613 level.
Regression Channel - Nifty - Day & 1hr timeframe1. Change in the regression trend at day timeframe, 1st Dec 23
It occurred with Gap formation, which will act as good support
2. Another Regression channel can be observed at 1hr time frame
3. Spinning Top Formation at the weekly timeframe, implicates bearish sentiment in the last week's price movement
Another "change in the trend" is expected
Nifty live prediction for today 3rd Jan 24As we have discussed, Nifty has been moving upwards in the channel. Now, it has broken down to the lower channel, which shows a bearishness in the NIFTY behavior. There is a high probability that it will now continue in the lower channel as a bearish trend. OI data also confirms its bearish nature with PCR = 0.70. it will be bearish for now.
Reasons:
It has entered the bearish channel side. Now, fall might be sharp. (Bearish)
Price < EMAs that show the bearishness in the market. also it has given crossover(ema(13,50)) which always shows reversal of the trend.
RSI = 40 shows the weak bulls and might enter <40 that will be the start of heavy bearishness.
if we see the OI data PCR = 0.70 which shows bearishness in the market.
21500 will be acting as a nice support level to the downside. Upside 21600 will be acting as a nice resistance zone; OI data also confirms that.
Verdict:
Bearish
Plan of action:
Sell 21550 CE and hedge it with a small CE premium.
Weakness can continue if important levels breached. Two key levels for Nifty to hold on in this market weakness triggered by some global events and Profit booking are 21555 and 21450. Closing below 21450 can lead to further weakness and Nifty can fall to the levels of 21242, 20951 or even 20768. The worst case scenario visible as of now seems to be 20592. In case 20592 is breached Bears will start calling the shots and pull Nifty back levels of 19809 are possible but not probable. (Major Negative News). In case Nifty takes support at 21555 or 21450, form a bottom and bounce resistance will be near 21751, 21839. Closing above 21839 will open the door towards channel top area which can lead Nifty to 22K or even 22363 levels.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -27/12/2023Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 21460 level and then possible upside rally up to 21580 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 21430 level then the downside target can go up to the 21310 level.
Nifty continues good show, ends above mid-channel resistanceNifty continues good show and ended the day above mid-channel resistance. Nifty right now looks pretty fairly placed to touch the previous high or end making a new high. Top of the currently looks near 21800. The resistances on the way towards top of the channel are at 21483, 21541 and 21592. Crossing and closing above 21592 will open the doors for 21800. Supports on the down side are near 21397, 21303 (Major Support 50 Hours EMA), 21113 and finally channel bottom near 20980. Trend will change to negative if we get a closing below 20696.