Niftyoutlook
NIFTY--Retracement or Reversal ??Observations:
--------->> After a strong breakout in nifty @17800 level, no proper retracement is observed.
--------->> If 18200 acts as resistance we will observe a retracement towards 17800 or 17500 levels.
--------->> If price break 18200,we have an immediate resistance @18250-18300, a false breakout may happen here @18200.
---------->>Price wants to test the previous supply @ 17800 level which may act as demand zone to move the price towards upside for the targets of 18200,18500 levels in the upcoming weeks.
--------->>This week price is ranging between 17950-18200 levels.
Note::
Consider it as a Retracement not a reversal in NIFTY.
NIFTY --Strong Support @17840 -17800 ?? or Reversal @17500Note:
Strong Support @17840 -17800 will acts as support go long again from this levels to reach 18100,18200 levels.
It is recommended to remain on the buy side within the range of 17800-17840, as no significant retracement has been observed after breaking the supply zone at 17840 level.
If this level acts as support, weekly expiry is expected to be bullish to consolidation at (18100-18200).
Observations:
After trending upwards in NIFTY yesterday, today the price continuously moving upwards,
They are now poised to reach untested supply zones at 17920-18100 levels.
However,, and if any of the previous supply zones act as support, the price could move back upwards.
Nifty--Expiry Levels.Yesterday, the Nifty demonstrated bullish pressure above the significant resistance level of 17800.
As a result, it is expected that there will be a swift retest of this level, followed by a price increase.
Support range is 17800-17840 levels.
However, due to the monthly expiry, the price is currently consolidating within the range of 17960-17800 levels.
It is important to keep an eye on the untested supply zone at 17680, which is anticipated to act as powerful demand in the future.
NIFTY- Will reach 18000 by monthly expiry???Observations:
After trending upwards in NIFTY yesterday, today witnessed sellers opposes the price moving upwards,
They are now poised to reach untested supply zones at 17700-17680 levels.
However, buyers may lack the necessary power to push the price higher, and if any of the previous supply zones act as support, the price could move back upwards.
It is recommended to remain on the buy side within the range of 17700-17680, as no significant retracement has been observed after breaking the supply zone at 17680 level.
If this level acts as support, monthly expiry is expected to be bullish.
Precision of the chart. Look at the yellow circle. The blue line is exactly where the Nifty stopped. That is a strong resistance crossing this resistance we may face next resistance at 17863. Supports on the lower side are the same are 17552 and 17532. If 17532 is broken we may see the levels of 17467 and 17198. For Now everything looks good. Above 17863 we will see resistance near 18092 and 18360. (View remains the same). Nifty following this chart.
NIFTY-Fall again from LH @17760 (Demand acts as Supply) ???The NIFTY index has once again risen, but it has formed a lower high at 17760,
which is the same level as a previous demand zone. Interestingly, this same demand zone now appears to be acting as a supply zone,
as evidenced by the fact that prices have fallen back to the 17560.
If the price manages to break below the 17700 level, which is an internal supply zone,
it is likely that this level will once again act as a supply zone, causing prices to fall further below the support levels at 17560-17520.
Morning Mantra - 25th April 2023Dear All,
It was an amazing day yesterday . Wherein, we had observed that after a gap up opening of 17707, Nifty had made a day’s low of 17612 and had thereafter made a sharp recovery from that level.
Overall on the hourly chart of Nifty, we can now observe a head & shoulder formation . Wherein, the level of 17800 can be considered as its neckline . Above this level of 17800, we can see Nifty for the level 18134 approx in the near term.
Until the time we witness a closing of above 17800, we are still with our words to keep following the Cherry-picking strategy with the stop loss of 17300 , as of now.
Besides, the conservative players can go for fresh accumulation only after witnessing a beautiful and a strong closing of above 17800 .
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
NIFTY-Will 17680-17660 Zone Resist again??
The NIFTY is failed to break the strong resistance level 17700, which are considered strong levels of supply zone..
However, the presence of a supply zone(17680-17660) and the upcoming expiry may limit the price movement,
and we can expect the price to remain within the range of 17700-17500.
if the same range again act as resistance go short for downside targets of 17580-17520 level.
NIFTY-Will Rise from this Support @17520-17580 range.The NIFTY has broken the previous strong resistance level 17800
If the same level 17800 failed to acts as a support level,
so the price fall back to the untested demand zones at 17580 and 17520 level, which are considered strong levels of support.
Observations:
Additionally, as we have a monthly expiry this week, it is likely that the price will remain within the same range(17960-17500).
Overall Trend is Bullish, observed a low is formed by breaking HL at 17730.
Note:
In summary, the previous resistance level(17800) has been broken and we can expect the price to rise to 17920-17960 ,if the range(17520-17580) acts as a support.
However, the presence of a supply zone(17800-17960) and the upcoming expiry may limit the price movement, and we can expect the price to remain within the range of 17500-17900 for this week.
GO long:
Price breaks 17660 and gives pullback to 17520-17580,go long for targets of 17700,17800,17960.(Keep on buy side.)
GO Short:
price broken 17520 and retests to 17580 level act as Resistance go short for downside target of 17450.
Keep an eye @ 17700 level where Buyers and sellers exchange.
Nifty at a critical support. 50 and 200 days EMA have been providing a critical support to Nifty all throughout the week. 50 and 200 days EMA stand at 17544 and 17530 respectively. This zone has provided support to the Nifty almost on all days of the week proving that it is the most critical support. If this support is broken Next support for Nifty will be only at 17406 and further down at 17204 levels. However if Nifty is assured of its support the chances are that it can rise from here. The resistances that it can meet on the way up are near 17805, 17869, 18092 and 18261 levels.
A major support zone got activated today. Market today saw tremendous selling in IT sector, Services and consumer goods. The market however saw a good recovery of about 132 points from bottom on the back of purchase in PSU, FMCG, Auto and some realty counters. Below the zone from where Nifty bounced today, that is 17574 which is near 50 hours EMA we will have supports near 17454 which is 200 hours EMA as well as mid channel support which is at the same level. The zone between 17529 and 17526 is again a major support as this zone has 50 and 200 days EMA. On the upper side we might face resistance near 17738 and 17782. The zone between 17847 and 17923 is a very strong resistance zone. We can have a range bound week or weeks unless there is some strong news or result which can either pull the index above 17923 or drag it below 17454 levels.
Spot Nifty At A Critical Juncture.Market Outlook
The Nifty is poised at a cross road and a critical resistance. Either it can defy the resistance and continue rising further or it can consolidate a bit in the range of 100/ 200 points on either side and consolidate it’s position. Nifty consolidating first and then rallying further will be more logical but Stock market is not the place which obeys reasoning and logic most of the times. Either it becomes too worried or it becomes too fearless and greedy. We investors try to find equilibrium and rationale in the place which often defies laws of consistency in the short term. In the long term everything works fine and falls in a deserving place.
Spot Nifty Resistance Zones: 17851, 18004, 18126 and 18267.
Spot Nifty Support Zones: 17780, 17713, 17532(Strong Short Term Support), 17311(Final Short Term Support).
Cup and Handle Formation in Nifty in Progress in the long run.Nifty Outlook: Nifty Looks good for a long haul in the long run. In the short term though Nifty seems a little bit of consolidation before it heads further. RSI on hourly chart shown a need of little bit of strength through consolidation. Which means we may see little bit sluggish end of the week tomorrow as Nifty is already in the resistance zone. This zone might not allow Nifty to escape the clutches easily. But if Nifty does escape this medium term resistance, It can fly ahead with even more power.
Medium Term Resistance zone: 17857 to 18100.
Long Term Resistances: Long Term resistances for Nifty lies at 18446 and 18887.
Medium term Supports: 17614 and 17314.
Long Term Supports: 16828 and 16520.
Long Term Targets for Nifty which it can reach within This year or by Second quarter of 2024 seems to be 19447 or on the upper side 20160. .
An Equation of the Financial Markets in form of an Endless Loop.Elliot Wave Theory claims that Markets form similar patterns of formations on smaller time frames that are visible on higher time frames, (higher/lesser degree). Crowd behaviour which the theorist defined for traders or market participants is predictable in a manner that it ought to cause a definite result after each sequential or circumventing interval. First half of idealised Elliot Wave is Motive Wave, which consists of 5 kinds of movements but majority are in the direction of higher degree trend (3) and 2 the even movements are retracements or corrections from that higher degree trend. For example on a Monthly chart there is an Upward Trend in the markets then at weekly time frame motive wave would have 1,3,5 actionary movements in upward direction and two corrective movements in downward direction. Motive Wave is further categorised with Impulse Sub-Wave and Diagonal Sub-Wave. Impulse Wave is the normal Motive wave whereas the Diagonal Wave forms consolidation in a channel at 3rd level. The Cycle that I have marked on the chart is Elliot Wave Bearish Cycle which consists of 5 Motive Waves( 15 levels of downward trend and 10 corrective retracements in upward trend) plus 3 corrective Waves as in form of 2nd phase or 2nd overall wave of the Cycle. In my calculative assumption the Corrective Waves are ending ending 18200 levels for nifty and began at 16850. I hope I could make this loopic concept a bit clearer.
How much more Fizz left in the rally? The main question that is springing in every mind is that how much more Fizz is left in the rally? Is it a genuine back to bull market rally or should we consider it a relief rally only? We will know only if the critical resistance are crossed in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty Critical Resistances: 17639, 17720, 17804 (Major Resistance) ,18066, 18136, 18207 and finally 18292 (Major Resistance) .
Nifty Critical Support Zones: 17515, 17482, 17402, 17309 and finally 17210.
NIFTY strong REVERSAL candle on WEEKLY TF#NIFTY Strong reversal candle this week & long leg Doji on Monthly Chart after 3 Consecutive months sell-off!
If one had read the chart without any bias, the trend on weekly charts was up & not down.
Only a break below 16740-50 levels would mean a change in trend to downtrend.
The Price perfectly fulfills my last idea and moved towards the upside and also closes above the 17222+ On weekly chart. From the support zone of 16850 price moved towards the upside till the 17380+ with a bullish candle and price closes on positive note on weekly chart in the Friday session. After 3 consecutive red candle on weekly chart we closes in big green candle in the last week.
Now the price can head towards the 17555--17600 level to touch the upper downward parallel channel and if price go sideways for 1 or 2 days near the upper hand of parallel channel and than breaks the upper parallel channel and level of 17600 and sustain above it than we can see tremendous move towards upside and targets will 18000/18222+ In coming trading sessions.
If price unable to breaks the upper parallel channel and again respects it and face Resistance than we can again move towards the downside till the support level.
Nifty nearing a major resistance zoneNifty has come at the doorstep of Major resistance zone. This is the region between 17586 and 17812. This Zone is full of small and big resistances for Nifty. Momentum of Nifty is good but it will take some major effort in crossing this most important zone. In case this zone is crossed this week or later next week, the next resistance are near 17977 and 18125. Supports for Nifty are near 17514, 17478, 17417 and 17310. It is a critical day tomorrow as Friday we have very rare Second holiday of the week.
Market Outlook for 3rd to 7th April 2023. After consolidating for about 2 weeks Nifty Finally had a shackle breaking close to the week and month in the last couple of days where momentum totally changed and both FIIs and DIIs turned buyers simultaneously. While the closing of Nifty is good, a major resistance zone of 50 and 200 days EMA between 17478 and 17515 is there to be crossed. If this zone is crossed there will be another major resistance near 17618 which will be tough to cross. If we are able to cross 17618 Nifty will face a trend line channel top resistance near 17817. Bulls can be in full control only after these zones are crossed. Supports on the lower side now remain at 17300, 17204 and 17080. Let us hope that bulls can carry the momentum through to the next month and next financial year.
IF PRICE ACTION IS WRONG THEN I AM HAPPY TO LOOSE MONEY.Go short, I cannot shout more. A little change of direction does not hurt a trend, a trend takes huge momentum which is missing till now, DJI for instance has just retraced back from risk aversion levels of crisis haphazard, nonetheless they have shifted to uptrend no doubt but India lacks that fundamental support from Foreign Investments and also our Domestic Institutions have filled their belly of buying equities as much as possible. The index has a bit more room in downtrend, smaller up ticks would occur for sure but at the end April is going to be a BEARISH month.