NIFTY--Trending Expiry ViewObservations::
price is exactly closed in the supply zone....where price strongly fall from these levels.
we have to wait before sell...
price is again fall below,19410 level,and this level has to reject for more fall.
yesterday price broken the trendline and retested...now we have to check fall happens are not.
the area of value at 19380 level will push the price up...to test the supply one more time...
be on the bearish side from these levels...
On bottom side price tested the demand zone at 19340,today it will not respect it gives us pullback or break may happens and retest will come. So will enter for short for targets of 19300 and 19260 levels.
If price wants to go up, it has to break and retest of supply and then only bullish...
fake out will also be happens at this level.
Keep track this level...key level 19410 level.
Niftyoutlook
NIFTY--Trendline Holds or Break??Observations::
Will trendline acts as support ??
price action is completely in uptrend...
today after open a gap up price fall happens strongly...
buyers try to make the price higher but failed to close above 19400 level...
we can consider this level as a resistance...
price is now near its trend line....will see if this breaks or not.
if price breaks and retest will enter for short side trade...
strong bullishness is observed from the 19250 level after opening gap up...
bullish gap left at 19200 is filled, if trendline acts as resistance.
Bullish gap ma acts as a support also....
will see tomorrow what happens.
keep track these levels.
We don't go for long side...we don't have targets to book...price at anytime may reverse after All Time High.
04 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty Yesterday I was quite ambitious to call the top at 19334 + or 80pts levels. The opening 45 mts and then the subsequent fall from 13.30 to 14.30 showed real signs of N50 running out of fuel.
But one thing that really proved me wrong was the intensity of credit spreads getting written at the PUTS side (bullish sign). Although there was lot of unwinding after 14.30, the issue is that CALL side credit spreads are not getting written.
If the run of N50 has to be checked we need CE shorts, aggressive big boys who do not run for cover. The lowest friction area for N50 to go is up as there are no resistances — thus making it a real tough spot for call writers. Personally I wouldnt dare writing ATM calls now even though I feel the top is near.
1hr TF
N50 for the first time in last 5 sessions closed the gap after a gap-up opening negating a consecutive spree of island day formations. The strong red opening 1hr candle stays lit and I am still inclined to keep the bearish view.
Ascending Channel NiftyIt has been under formation since the 2nd week of March, which reflects the overall trend of the market for the Last 3 Months. It is a good time to invest in Nifty Bees since it has reached an all-time high and is on an unknown trajectory. Overall, it is a super bullish setup.
Our Chart continues to work perfectlyAs you can see and we had depicted yesterday Nifty had taken a firm support at 18646 and the only now was upwards. Despite negative to Neutral US markets Nifty opened gap up above what was 50 Hours EMA, confirmed support of the EMA at 18742 for few hours and then marched ahead. The march of Nifty was halted by the Mid-Channel Line resistance at 18829 and that is where Nifty cooled down a bit to close the day at 18817.4.
How is that for Precision? I hope you all are appreciating the efforts that we are putting in the analysis.
What Nifty holds for tomorrow? If Mid channel line (18829) is conquered tomorrow and Nifty hold above it, we will be sooner than later looking towards re-approaching the All Time high of Nifty and probably this time around Nifty might even break it and make a new high.
Resistances: 18829, 18840 and 18887.6. Post making a new high 18956 and 19018 can be very very tough resistances.
Supports: If the Nifty is not able to conquer 18829 to 18840 range and sustain above it the supports will be at 18795, 18742, 18646, 18576 and 18421.
Nifty daily analysis26 JUNE ANALYSIS:
Nifty opens:
side: if market give downside breakout 18645 then sell (PS-100% )
breakout on buying side 18720
gapup: wait for price-action buy on breakout(PS-50% )
gapdown: wait for further price-action and sell if breaks lower support (PS-50%)
buy if hammer candle is formed after big gapdown and breaks high of first 5 min candle [PS-100%)
Nifty daily analysis26 JUNE ANALYSIS:
Nifty opens:
side: if market give downside breakout after consolidation around 18650 then sell (PS-100% )
gapup: wait for price-action trade on whichever direction it gives breakout(PS-20% for upside and 30% for downside)
gapdown: wait for further price-action and sell if breaks lower support (PS-50%)
buy if hammer candle is formed and breaks high of first 5 min candle [PS-100%)
Nifty Weekly Analysis for Jun 26 - 30🔍 Analysis on Nifty for the Upcoming Week 🔮
Jun 26 - 30
The Nifty index seems to exhibit a bullish trend in both long-term & short-term as well, according to the market structure.
📈 Key Levels to Monitor:
In the upcoming week, it's important to monitor key levels 18535, 18650, 18660, 18890.
🔎My outlook:
The outlook for the upcoming week’s trading suggests a directional view (Bullish).
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If Nifty breaks out above the significant level of 18887, supported by a strong and clear daily candle, it could indicate a bullish market trend.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
However, if Nifty breaks down below 18534, confirmed by a strong and clear daily candle, it may signal a decline towards the 18250 level.
📊 Support Level:
As long as Nifty sustains above the support level of 18530, the market can be viewed as bullish.
Nifty Weekly Analysis for Jun 19 - 23🔍 Analysis on Nifty for the Upcoming Week 🔮
Jun 19 - 23
The Nifty index seems to exhibit a bullish trend in both long-term & short-term as well, according to the market structure.
📈 Key Levels to Monitor:
In the upcoming week, it's important to monitor key levels
🔎My outlook:
The outlook for the upcoming week’s trading suggests a non-directional market, potentially characterized by a sideways pattern.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If Nifty breaks out above the significant level of 18887, supported by a strong and clear daily candle, it could indicate a bullish market trend.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
However, if Nifty breaks down below 18534, confirmed by a strong and clear daily candle, it may signal a decline towards the 18250 level.
📊 Support Level:
As long as Nifty sustains above the support level of 18530, the market can be viewed as bullish.
Nifty Dives below 50 hours EMA After Failing to Conquer ATH. Nifty Nose-Dived below 50 hours EMA After Failing to Conquer All Time High which was within the touching distance. The factors responsible for the fall can be attributed to Hawkish stance of FED before July FOMC. Hawkish stance of global Central banks and Profit booking near all time high. Relative Strength Index of Nifty (RSI) also needed some cooling down.
50 Hours EMA is working as an important resistance now and today low of 18647 will be important support for Monday. If the support at 18647 is broken Nifty can languish upto bottom of current channel and 200 Hours EMA which is near 18554. If Nifty closes below 18554 final support for Bulls is near 18421 closing below which bears will spring back to life.
nifty daily analysis
Nifty opens:
side: if market give upside breakout after consolidation around 18830 then buy (PS-30% )
if market moves down then sell (70%PS)
gapup: wait for price-action trade on whichever direction it gives breakout(PS-20%)
gapdown: wait for further price-action and sell if breaks lower support (PS-100%)
NIFTY--Trending Breakout or Breakdown?? Observations::
The index is still in uptrend....
facing some resistance @ ATH...but no sign of bearishness is observed.
yesterday index is trading in a range....
if today this will range may be broken...and will observe a trending expiry...
Bullish expiry or bearish Expiry::
As long as price is above the 18700 it is bullish only....
if price breaks 18660 level and it gives some retracement then only will go for short side...until don't think of short again...
Fake breakdown may also be happen at this zone 18760-18740.
If price breaks @ATH, until which level we can expect..
after breaking ATH, we can expect price will reach rounding number 19000 and 19050, like vise.
we cannot predict where it exactly reverse.. all these are our expectations only....
we cannot trade after a ATH, the reason is we don't know where to place our target, we know only stop loss..
so wait and watch the show...will have another day price will come back and move...
if it is fake breakout above ATH, will fall again...
Note::
BANKNIFTY broken ATH ...will expect nifty will also break...and reverse.
If we see BANKNIFTY Index price has broken the ATH, but not moved much points, again falls below the range only..
The Zone around ATH is proving to be a tough resistance. The Zone around 18862 and ATH of 18887.6 is proving to be a tough resistance to conquer. Nifty has so far made multiple attempts but has not been successful so far this week after coming in the touching distance couple of times. Once ATH resistance is crossed the next resistance will be near 18953 and 19018. But before we get there Nifty might again take a dip in search of a proper launchpad for that leap of faith. Global markets are expecting a hike by FED again in July FOMC as the action was PAUSE but commentary was hawkish. If that remains the case little bit of correction can also happen in Nifty. In such a scenario the supports this week will be 18827, 18790, 18756 and 18660. Below 18524 bear will try to snatch back control. Possibility of that happening is difficult this week. But we never really know.
Nifty levels for 22nd JuneThis is not a prediction! And never believe in any prediction either! Just My-Lines to watch if it's respected and PA have an edge will buy or Short. Trade your system, trade what you see!
Check my previous post to see how well the levels were respected and reacted. Always wait for a retest to validate the levels, if its crosses above or below
NIFTY--Which is Support Trendline or Neckline??Observations::
If both failed price clears the 2gaps below.
The Nifty index price is showing some bearish pressure in the previous ATH Resistance zone.
If this fall continue towards downside or will break ATH.
so if we see the below picture, price is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, is this a sign of reversal.
ok if it is a reversal, we have 2 bullish gaps left @18680 level and 18600 level.
price has to respect these two gaps if any one of these gap gives support strongly, price will break ATH,
if this showing buying pressure and not able to go up side....
sellers are aggressively take the price to below 18600 levels.
If we see we have a trendline support as well,
if price failed to break 18800 level after taking the trendline support.
Breaks the trendline then enter for short after a retest is done to trendline.
if no retest is observed then wait it will again comes back to the same range.
Keep watch these levels...18720-18740 range if break, it will finish the gap on bottom side.
if price opens below this also look for sell on retest to this zone.
Nifty 19 Jun 23 to 23 Jun 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 19 Jun 23 to 23 Jun 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 18826 ( 18563) and touched low & high of 18561 and 18862.
Buy call was given on dip on 21-May-23 at 18181.
The stiff resistance provided (inclined trend line ) for the week 18745 to 18786 acted well, on the last day of the week, nifty broke the weekly resistance on a decisive note.
RSI and Stochastic level raised to 65% and 85% respectively.
Nifty- expected to cross prev. High 18890, short term is sideways/ short dip expected after touching 19060/19100 as shown inclined line (blue color) which will act as resistance for short term.
Can book some profits at this level. Sell overvalued stocks.
Nifty support at 18620
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty expected to break 19100 and to touch 19200-19350( red inclined resistance) in medium term. But as mentioned above after a dip.
Support - 18446 ( Fibonacci).
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 19350 to reach targets of 19500/20000
Nifty have multiple support for long Term - 17865/18000/18111
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 & Nifty Equal weight ( 50%)
Nifty Bank & IT (20%)
Nifty Mid Cap ( 20 %)
Nifty Small Cap (10%)
Nifty Trend in the month of June 1. On the Daily chart since March, there has been an ascending channel trend in the nifty.
2. On the 4HR chart, Ascending Broadening Wedge
3. Now the Market has reached the ATH trajectory, there is a consolidation happening in the form of a parallel channel, this sort of price action depicts indecision behavior.
this is expected at an All-time High level.
The next 10 days will unfold more clarity on chart pattern & sentiment.
In conclusion, a Large timeframe shows bullish sentiment & shorter there is indecision.