Niftyoutlook
Morning Mantra - 13th February 2023Dear All,
As we told you on last Monday, about witnessing the formation of a Piercing Pattern on the weekly chart of Nifty, which was somehow indicating a bounce back in the Market. Fortunately, thereafter, we did witness a beautiful weekly closing of above 17800 in Nifty.
So for now, with the support of 17320, the level of 18170 will be our Resistance level once again.
Furthermore, the impact of the budget and the quarterly results are somehow indicating that there’s a huge probability of witnessing a beautiful rebound in the Market once again, from this level of 17800 towards 18170 and 18400.
So in the meanwhile, along with being stock specific, following the Cherry Picking strategy will be a good idea here.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra - 10th February 2023Dear All,
Fortunately, we got to witness a closing of above 17800 for two consecutive days. This altogether, strengthens our expectations towards the level of 18170 for the near term.
However, it will be suggested to keep patience for now, since today is the last trading day of this week. As, the weekly closing will somehow help us to understand the Market's momentum for the upcoming days.
Furthermore, if the Index manages to give us a weekly closing of above 17800 today, then our support level will once again shift from 17320 to 17800, as we usually say that,
support = resistance = support.
So for now, continue being stock specific and wait and watch for today's closing.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra - 9th February, 2023Dear All,
What a beautiful day it was yesterday, which seemed like a perfect “8 ke thaat”. Wherein Nifty had given a beautiful closing of above 17800.
Just as we had stated in our weekly analysis on Monday itself, similarly, perfect Piercing Pattern on the weekly chart can push the index towards the level of 17800 and then further to 18170.
Moreover, a contribution from all the sectors is somehow indicating a positive post budget impact on the Market, which may take the index towards the 18400 level in coming days.
Also, in the meanwhile, following the Cherry picking strategy will be a good idea.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Once Nifty is able to cross 50 Hours EMA it can travel further. Once Nifty is able to cross 50 Hours EMA it can travel further. 17793 is the number above which Nifty needs to sustain.
Supports For Nifty: 17649, 17580, 17495 and finally 17345. Below 17345 Nifty will become very weak.
Resistances for Nifty: 17793, 17828, 17914, 17974 and finally 18200. Above 18200 Nifty will be Bullish.
Morning Mantra - 8th February, 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday, similarly we did witness some selling pressure in the Market yesterday itself.
Wherein, once again even after making a high of 17811.15 in the initial Market hours yesterday, Nifty failed to sustain above its stated Resistance level of 17800 and ultimately gave a closing of 17721.50
Therefore, we can observe the importance of the 17800 level. Just as strong as it was as a level of support earlier, similarly it is now proving to be a strong level of Resistance for the Market.
Besides, with the support level of 17320 we are still hopeful.
Moreover, this may be due to the Results season and post budget effect that Nifty seems to be confused once again. So, having a little patience will be beneficial for now. Until the time Nifty decides its direction towards either a breakdown of 17320 level or a cross over of above 17800.
So, in the meantime, continue being stock specific.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra - 7th February, 2023Dear All,
On observing yesterday’s market momentum, where Nifty had made a high of 17823.70 but had somehow failed to sustain above the level due to selling pressure. We can altogether see how crucial is the level of 17800 for the Market.
Once again, Nifty seems to be finding difficulty to stably cross over the stated Resistance level of 17800.
Moreover, on observing the formation of a bearish harami pattern on the day chart of Nifty, we can sense a little cautiousness in the Market for today.
Nonetheless, we are still positively hopeful for the Market with the support of 17320.
Thus in the meanwhile, stay cautious and be stock specific for now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Morning Mantra - 6th February 2023 Dear All,
Finally we got to witness a beautiful week.
Moreover, just as we had stated earlier that support = resistance and resistance = support, similarly, the level of 17800 which was earlier a Support is now a level of Resistance for the Market, which was beautifully achieved by Nifty on last Friday.
As of now, on a weekly basis we can observe a Piercing Pattern on the chart, at around our stated level of 17320, which was altogether a good indicator.
Furthermore, for this week the level of 18170 will work as a strong Resistance for the Market once again. Above which, we can witness the level of 18400 in the near term, with the support of 17320.
Also, continue being stock specific as of now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
Nifty 30 Jan 23 to 3 FEB 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 30 Jan 23 to 3 FEB 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 17605 ( Prev close 18057)
Nifty in Deep Red Zone due to Hindenberg report Adani Stocks befor FPO and budget.
Q3 Results didnt entralled the investors to the expectation so far, except Banking sector results. Banking sector posted good performance(results) as mentioned in last 2 weeks analysis but the bank index didnt moved much due to the Indian Market Slow down worry. Expect infra push continues in budget.
Currently market is eagerly waiting for budget to prevent any deep fall.
Wait for the market to dip to the support levels mentioned below.
Overall Strategy: Negative till budget & accumulate on dips w.r.t the strict support level given below. Long Term looks attractive. Market may fall from 2-4 % from current level
Nifty short term
Nifty was following range bound action for the last month as specified despite budget expectation. Due to the Adani report, market fell down 2.2 % last week. If it breaks below 17435 (Oct22 High Shown in dark Red line) then next support will be 17290 ( MA 200) / 17000.
Index will be in broader range with high volatality 17250- 17800 till budget.
Investors can Partial profit booking (30%) stocks can be initiated and add value stocks for Long Term when market dips to the above support level.
Medium term target
18250 followed by 18900 is achievable as overall macro economic data is good and now purely depends on the push to be given by budget. If the budget is not meeting the expectation then the Market Range will be 16750 ( Sep 22 low) - 18250 levels.
Long term target 19500 still in intact.
Nifty Bank Index is continuing under oversold zone, Adani stocks exposed stocks like SBI, ICICI, LIC will be consolidating little and opportunity to buy. other bank Stocks like Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, Ujjvan Small Fin bank and BOB looks promising. If nifty moves towards 19500, Nifty Bank will definitely might move to 46500 level from current 42506 little better % than nifty .
sectors like Defence, Infra stocks will be concentrated in budget especially HAL, BDL, Ircon, PNC Infra are good to buy on dips ( 5-10% Correction) incase market fall.
Auto looks promising - Maruti, M&M , Tata Motors are good to buy.
Other stocks - Bajaj Finance ( 5-10% Correction), Infosys, Hind Unilever, Tata Elxsi, KPIT looks promising. Buy on Dips.
India Vix About to Break Out but needs cooling off for nowAs you can see the Volatility Index of Nifty has leaped and on the verge of shooting through the roof. Therein lies the relief. If you look at Relative Strength Index of the Volatility Index, it has entered the zone from where it generally reverses. Reversing volatility might provide a relief rally or stability to the Index and we might see some buying from various kinds of investors.
Good budget or a budget without any negative news can play a positive role in Indices making a comeback or infusing stability. On many counts the index looks oversold and later on Monday / Tuesday or in that range we might see a rally.
This rally can be short lived as it will face resistance near 17950/18050 range but if that zone is overcome and if Budget has some very positive news for the investors we might see a sharp rally till 18400 or 18800 range.
In case of lackluster budget by Government of India the downside that we might be looking in Nifty can range between another 3 to 7%.
The index within Nifty that looks on the verge of Break Out is Auto Index. It is looking really strong. Tech companies can make a comeback because they have been beaten down the most and they may reflect the light from positivity of NASDAQ.