NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 19-Nov-2024Trading Plan for 19-Nov-2024
Intro: Previous Day’s Chart Analysis
On 18-Nov-2024, the market exhibited a mix of bullish recovery and consolidation. Yellow regions indicated sideways movement, suggesting indecision in the market. Green zones demonstrated bullish recovery attempts, while Red zones highlighted bearish breakdown scenarios. Intraday resistance at 23,725 played a key role in limiting gains, while support at 23,324 helped prevent a deeper sell-off.
Gap-Up Opening Scenario (+100 Points or More):
If Nifty opens around 23,600–23,700 , look for rejection near the resistance zone at 23,657 . Wait for a confirmation candle before entering short positions, targeting the 23,456 support.
If momentum sustains above 23,657 , expect bullish continuation towards 23,725 . Initiate longs after a retest of 23,657 , with a stop loss at 23,600 .
Avoid initiating trades if Nifty stays within 23,657–23,725 without a clear breakout or breakdown.
Flat Opening Scenario (+/- 50 Points):
A flat open near 23,462–23,475 would place the market in the No Trading Zone . Observe price action in this zone to gauge direction.
If the index breaks below 23,456 , short with targets at 23,396 and 23,324 , maintaining a stop loss at 23,475 .
For bullish setups, a breakout above 23,475 could lead to a move toward 23,657 , with stop losses placed at 23,450 .
Gap-Down Opening Scenario (-100 Points or More):
If Nifty opens near 23,324–23,350 , monitor for a pullback to 23,396 . Short positions can be initiated on rejection at 23,396 , targeting 23,291 and 23,123 .
A strong recovery above 23,396 could indicate bullish reversal potential. Longs can be considered after confirmation, with targets at 23,475 .
For aggressive selling, watch for a breach below 23,291 , which may trigger further downside to 23,123 . Use tight stop losses to manage risk.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Avoid chasing trades immediately after the opening bell; let the first 15–30 minutes establish a clear trend.
Use stop losses based on hourly candle closes to reduce the impact of market noise.
Limit position sizes in volatile zones and avoid holding positions into key economic events.
Keep track of implied volatility (IV) levels to assess premium pricing; avoid overpaying for options.
Summary and Conclusion:
The market's reaction near critical levels such as 23,657 (resistance) and 23,324 (support) will determine the trend for the day. Bullish momentum above 23,657 could target 23,725 , while failure to hold 23,324 may lead to a retest of 23,123 . Follow disciplined trading, and remember that patience and risk management are key to navigating uncertain conditions.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. All information provided is for educational purposes only. Traders are advised to conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty near Mid channel & 50 Weeks EMA (Mother Line) support. Nifty after closing below the 200 days EMA Father line on daily charts, may find support near 50 weeks EMA (Mother line of Weekly chart). The 50 weeks EMA is at 23233.
Before reaching there today's low of 23350 will also be a support. If by chance both these levels are broken the mid channel support for Nifty seems to be at at 22800 zone. Below which the bears have potential to drag Nifty further down to 22500 or even below 22K levels. To know more about Parallel channels and how they work or my Mother Father small child theory you can read my book The Happy candles way to wealth creation. Available in Paperback or E-version on Amazon and Google Play book.
Resistances for Nifty on the upper side are at 23658, 24122, 25012 and 25898. Above 25989 Nifty will aim to make a new all time high again as channel top currently seems to be near 27K. RSI is also suggesting that Nifty can make a substantial come back any time now.
Bollinger band lower band width has been pierced today both in daily chart as well as weekly chart indicating that market is heavily oversold and short covering can lead to a moderate recovery or substantial recovery sooner than later. The signs of bottom formation are clear unless FIIs begin another round of aggressive selling. The selling by FII has been continuous but seems to have decreased in the last few sessions rising further hopes for recovery.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
In Depth Analysis for Nifty 50 Index (1-Hour Chart)Symbol: Nifty 50
Timeframe: 1-Hour
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Technical Analysis:
The Nifty 50 index is currently trading at 23,559.60, moving within a well-defined downward-sloping channel. The price is nearing a crucial support zone (23,480-23,570), which could act as a potential area for a short-term bounce. However, the overall trend remains bearish unless a breakout occurs above the resistance levels.
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Key Observations:
1. Trend: The index is clearly in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows within the channel. The bearish sentiment remains dominant.
2. Support & Resistance:
Immediate Support: 23,480-23,570. A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside toward 23,200.
Immediate Resistance: 24,070-24,540. These levels correspond to the midline and upper boundary of the channel.
3. Volume Analysis: Declining volumes on the recent down move indicate a potential loss of selling momentum, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback.
4. Potential Reversal Zone:
A break above 24,070 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward 24,540.
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Trade Setup:
1. For Bulls:
Entry: Consider going long near 23,480-23,570, provided there are bullish reversal signals like a hammer or bullish engulfing candle.
Target: 24,070, and an extended target of 24,540.
Stop Loss: Below 23,450, to minimize downside risk.
2. For Bears:
Entry: Look for shorting opportunities on rejection near 24,070 or at the channel’s upper boundary (24,540).
Target: 23,480 and further downside to 23,200.
Stop Loss: Above 24,600.
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Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Breakout: A decisive close above 24,070 will confirm a breakout from the channel, opening doors for a move toward higher levels.
2. Continuation of Downtrend: If the index fails to hold the 23,480 support, it could continue its bearish trajectory to 23,200.
NIFTY - Trading Levels and Plan for 18-Nov-2024** Nifty Trading Plan for 18-Nov-2024 **
Previous Day Overview:
On 17-Nov-2024, Nifty displayed a consolidative pattern near the Important Zone for Long-Term Trend at 23,711 , signaling indecision among traders. The chart highlights three key trends: Yellow showing a sideways movement, Green representing bullish attempts facing resistance near 23,808 , and Red depicting bearish pullbacks testing support at 23,504 . The session emphasizes the significance of these levels in determining market direction.
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** Opening Scenarios: **
Gap Up Opening (100+ points above)
If Nifty opens above 23,808 , it could test the Last Resistance for Intraday at 24,009 . Monitor the price action in the first 15-30 minutes for consolidation near 23,900 . A sustained breakout above 24,009 could indicate strong bullish momentum. Avoid chasing trades in case of high volatility; instead, wait for a retest of 23,808 as support for a safer entry point.
Flat Opening (within ±50 points)
A flat opening near 23,559 may provide a clearer picture of market sentiment. If Nifty holds above the Opening Resistance at 23,711 , a bullish move toward 23,808 is likely. Conversely, a breakdown below 23,568 could lead to a retest of the Opening Support at 23,504 . Prioritize risk management, as a flat opening could result in sideways movement initially.
Gap Down Opening (100+ points below)
A gap-down opening near 23,504 will shift focus to the Support Level at 23,123 . Allow the first 30 minutes for price stabilization; if Nifty sustains below 23,504 , expect a bearish move toward 23,123 . However, a quick recovery above 23,504 may present a reversal trade opportunity targeting 23,711 .
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** Risk Management Tips for Options Trading :**
- Use well-defined stop-loss levels, preferably based on hourly candle closes, to avoid unnecessary losses.
- Reduce position sizes when trading gap openings to manage volatility risks effectively.
- Opt for at-the-money (ATM) or slightly out-of-the-money (OTM) options for better liquidity and quicker premium adjustments.
- Avoid over-leveraging, especially in highly volatile market conditions.
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** Summary & Conclusion :**
For 18-Nov-2024, the key levels to monitor are 23,711 on the upside and 23,504 on the downside. A breakout above 23,808 could signal bullish momentum, while a breach below 23,504 may indicate bearish pressure. The market remains poised for both sideways and directional moves, depending on the opening scenario.
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**Disclaimer:**
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
#nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 18-22nd Nov 2024Nifty Takes a Beating: A Deep Dive
Last week, the Nifty 50 index experienced a significant downturn, closing at 23,532, a 600-point drop from the previous week's high of 24,336. The index breached the crucial support level of 23,550, dipping as low as 23,484. Currently hovering near its 50-week exponential moving average (50WEMA) at 23,230, the Nifty is expected to consolidate within a range of 23,100 to 24,000 in the coming week. Wednesday our markets will be closed due to Maharashtra elections so volatility will be high.
As previously highlighted, the monthly chart has weakened, and its impact is already evident. A further correction seems likely before a sustainable bottom is formed. A breach of the 23,250 support level could trigger a deeper correction of 7-7.5%, potentially taking the index down to 21,555. To resume its upward trajectory, the Nifty needs to convincingly close above 24,500 on consecutive days.
The S&P 500 also faced rejection from a critical Fibonacci level of 6,013, resulting in a 2.7% correction to 5,870. A breach of this week's low of 5,853 could lead to an additional 1.2% decline to 5,783. Such a move could intensify selling pressure in global markets, including India.
Nifty at cross road of critical support. Nifty this week gave a closing at 23532 a fraction below 200 days EMA or Father line which was at 23542. It will be imperative for Nifty to close above it within next week for bulls to get out of jail. Closing above 23542 will not be enough as there are many more hurdles to cross for Nifty once it scrambles above 200 days EMA.
If the Nifty is not able to cross above the 200 day's EMA by any chance next week the down side supports for Nifty will be at 23360, 23054 and 22819. Out of these 3 levels, 22819 is the most important support as it is the channel bottom support. This current channel in which Nifty is travelling initiates from May 22. Which means it is a pretty solid final support below which there can be a free fall into intense bear territory. In this case bears can drag Nifty further down to 21840 or 21264 levels.
On the positive side the resistances for Nifty remain at 23864, 24265, 24565 (Major resistance 50 days EMA) followed by 24796 and 25436 levels. Above 25436 we can see a pure Bull Market again.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Key Technical Analysis of Nifty50: Upcoming TrendIntroduction:
Understanding key support and resistance levels is essential for traders and investors looking to capitalize on market movements. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the Nifty50 index's weekly chart, highlighting essential price levels and trends that indicate potential bullish or bearish movements in the coming months. With Nifty's recent performance, it is crucial to evaluate these technical levels to identify future price action possibilities.
1. Previous Resistance Turned Strong Support
Nifty previously broke out of a strong resistance level around the 19000 mark, which now acts as robust support. This previous resistance level, marked with a red zone, signifies a major price zone that could halt potential downward movements, providing a solid foundation for buyers if Nifty pulls back to this level.
2. Support Trend Line and Bullish Continuation
A support trend line, indicating an ongoing bullish trend, extends from early 2023 to the current date. This trend line has been a crucial indicator of the index's positive momentum, providing support on multiple pullbacks. As long as Nifty respects this trend line, it could continue its bullish trajectory, making this level ideal for those looking to enter long positions.
3. The Key Support Zone at Last Swing Low
A major support zone sits around the 21000 level, marked by Nifty’s last swing low. This green zone is a significant area of buying interest. If the index begins a downward correction, this support zone will be closely watched by traders looking for signs of reversal or continued decline.
4. Trend Reversal Zone and Bearish Potential
If Nifty breaks down below the support trend line, it would signal the potential start of a bearish trend. Sellers could see this as an opportunity to enter short positions, especially if the breakdown is accompanied by strong volume. This area is essential for risk management, as a trend line breakdown could lead to a decline toward lower support levels, such as the 21000 zone or even further to 19000.
5. Reversal Confirmation and New Highs
On the upside, a reversal confirmation near the current support trend line could signal a renewed bullish push, with the possibility of Nifty making new highs. If this reversal takes place, it would present an attractive opportunity for long-term investors and buyers aiming for a rally continuation.
NIFTY Future going to 21426Market analysts generally predict a bullish outlook for the Nifty 50, with expectations of reaching up to 25,000 by the end of 2024 if current trends hold. This projection reflects the influence of strong corporate earnings, robust domestic economic growth, and significant inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), partly driven by India's inclusion in global bond indexes. These factors have improved investor confidence and are expected to provide sustained market support.
Historically, the Nifty 50 has displayed resilience, backed by factors like steady mutual fund inflows through SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans) and high levels of government spending on infrastructure. Analysts highlight that these trends, alongside anticipated global interest rate cuts, could continue to drive market gains in the coming months.
For My 21,500 target, the overall sentiment appears supportive, though any abrupt shifts in global markets, geopolitical developments, or fluctuations in FPI behavior could still influence market movements.
anticipate the Nifty 50 index moving toward 21,500 by the end of 2024, that aligns with some analysts’ outlooks, albeit more conservatively, compared to the upper targets of around 25,000. Such a level could be feasible if current growth drivers remain steady and if the market’s broader accountability or earnings stability continues.
Nifty 50 analysis- "In recent days, Nifty has formed a bearish head and shoulder pattern, indicating potential downside. It has currently reached 26,277.34, which is approximately 10.50% below its previous high. The 23,500 level is a crucial support zone, coinciding with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Historically, Nifty has tended to bounce off this 200-EMA.
However, it's important to note that market sentiment has turned bearish. Therefore, a prudent strategy would be to adopt a cautious approach, considering selling into rallies until we receive clear signs of upward momentum."
NIFTY50 // Breakdown or Reversal?www.tradingview.com
Everyone has seen a severe breakdown in Nifty in recent days and approx. 11% correction. But hey, wait a minute.
Did you checked the level where it is holding right now?
It is the same level from where it has taken a pause and breakout in past. Meaning, we can consider it as a strong buying zone.
Along with the above, it is also a level where 38% retracement is there from Fibonacci retracement perspective.
Consider the level of support at 23500, if Nifty doesn't goes below from here next week, be ready for a resume of bull run again.
So, the next resistance will be : 24500, 26300, 28200, 30000
and, the support will be : 22500, 21600, 21000.
Please note, there is an open gap between 20300-20500. That is the only concerning area. If it goes there to fill the gap, the last support will be 19900.
So, wait for the end of the current weekly candle. If you could see there are approx 6 divergence too on weekly candle which suggest change in situation.
Good luck.
Thanks
StoxWare team
NIFTY 450+ Points Profit Short Trade: A Perfect Execution The NIFTY (15-minute timeframe) chart highlights a well-executed short trade setup, delivering exceptional precision and profitability. Using the Risological Trading Indicator , traders were able to navigate this trade seamlessly.
Trade Highlights:
Entry Point : Positioned at 24,207.85, following a strong bearish signal confirmed by the downward Risological Lines and swing trendline alignment.
Targets Achieved : All targets were successfully hit:
TP1: 24,128.20
TP2: 23,999.25
TP3: 23,870.30
TP4: 23,790.60
Stop-Loss: A tight SL at 24,272.35 ensured disciplined risk management.
Key Observations:
Risological Lines : The collapsing Risological Red lines indicated strong bearish momentum, guiding traders to confidently hold the short position.
Momentum Continuation : Steady selling pressure confirmed the trade's directional strength, allowing all targets to be met efficiently.
Conclusion:
This trade on NIFTY showcases the power of technical analysis and precise execution. The well-structured risk-to-reward ratio made this short trade an outstanding success. Traders leveraging the Risological Indicator reaped impressive intraday profits—yet another win for technical discipline!
NIFTY Bears Dominate! 200+ Points Intraday Profit BaggedNIFTY Intraday Short Trade Analysis:
The NIFTY 15m timeframe revealed a strong short trade setup, capitalizing on bearish momentum. As of 12 Nov, 1:17 PM, the trade has already hit TP1 (24128.20) and TP2 (23999.25), delivering over 170+ points profit intraday – a remarkable gain for a single session!
Trade Snapshot:
Entry: 24207.85
Stop Loss (SL): 24272.35
NIFTY Targets:
TP1: 24128.20 ✅
TP2: 23999.25 ✅
TP3: 23870.30
TP4: 23790.60
Key Highlights:
Massive Intraday Momentum : The trade leveraged a steep bearish trend, with prices moving sharply downward.
Confluence of Signals : The short setup aligned perfectly with a downward sloping RISOLOGICAL Lines and bearish candlestick patterns, validating the move.
Quick Scalping Opportunity : The quick descent to TP2 within a short timeframe exemplifies the strategy’s efficiency for intraday traders.
Profit Perspective:
This setup's 200+ points profit intraday is a massive score for NIFTY, offering traders an exceptional risk-to-reward ratio. The move towards TP3 and TP4 looks probable, with continued bearish sentiment driving prices further down.
Conclusion:
A picture-perfect short trade setup on NIFTY has already delivered stellar returns. Traders riding this wave are poised for even greater profits as the index inches toward its lower targets. Keep an eye on the next support levels!
NIFTY : Levels and plan for 13-Nov-2024Intro:
On **12-Nov-2024**, the Nifty 50 index saw consolidation in the lower zone, with strong support around the "Must Try Zone" and signs of buyer activity. Moving forward, we have identified key levels for potential bullish, bearish, and sideways movements. Yellow trends indicate potential sideways movement, Green trends represent a bullish outlook, and Red trends show bearish sentiment.
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Trading Plan for 13-Nov-2024
**Gap Up Opening (100+ points):**
If the market opens with a significant gap up beyond 24,100 , watch for immediate resistance at 24,395 . If Nifty sustains above this level, we may see a bullish rally toward the next resistance level at 24,464 . However, if selling pressure emerges, expect the index to pull back to the "Opening Resistance" zone around 23,986 , where buyers might attempt to regain control.
**Flat Opening:**
In case of a flat opening near 24,025 , monitor the initial price action closely. If Nifty sustains above this level, a test of the "First Resistance Zone" around 24,361 is likely. Breaking this resistance could lead to a rally up to 24,423 or even the "Last Resistance Zone" at 24,464 . Failure to break through 24,361 could result in a retracement to the "Important Buyer’s Support" at 23,825 .
**Gap Down Opening (100+ points):**
A gap down opening below 23,767 would place the market within the "Important Buyer’s Support" zone. Here, a strong buyer presence could lead to a rebound toward 23,986 . If this level holds, an upward move back to the "Opening Resistance" is possible. However, if the index falls below 23,582 , it could signal further bearishness, targeting the "Possible Bottom Zone" around 23,504 .
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Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
- Limit your position size, especially near key resistance or support levels where reversals are more probable.
- In volatile market scenarios, consider using stop-loss orders based on hourly closes to avoid unnecessary stop-outs due to intraday volatility.
- Avoid entering trades in the "No Trade Zone" as highlighted on the chart, as these areas lack clear trend direction and increase the risk of whipsaw movements.
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Summary & Conclusion:
For 13-Nov-2024 , key levels to watch are 24,395 for resistance on the upside and 23,582 for critical support on the downside. Price action within the "Important Buyer’s Support" zone could dictate market direction. Green trends indicate potential bullish moves, Red trends signal bearish opportunities, and Yellow trends suggest caution with possible sideways action.
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Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on my personal trading strategy and psychological theory. Please perform your analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
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Happy trading!
Downward parallel channel still governing NiftyThe downward channel still governing Nifty and crushing it at every giving opportunity through continuous selling pressure from mainly FIIs. However Bollinger Bands is starting to suggest that Nifty might be oversold. Supports for Nifty now remain near 23822, 23611, 23380 and 23197. Resistance for Nifty remains at 23968, 24088, 24167, 24388 and 24548. Every bounce so far has been utilised by FIIs to sell. DIIs however are on a continuous buying trail. This fall for long term investors with a horizon of 12 to 24 months can be utilized for wealth creation as Some of the large caps and Selective Mid and small caps are now started to reach mouth watering levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Nifty is trapped between Mother line and trend line resistance. Nifty is trapped between Mother line and trend line resistance. The comeback that Nifty made from lows of the day was good. Today's low was 24004 from there the Nifty closed at 24141. The resistance on the way up for Nifty currently seem to be at 24221 (Mother line 50 Hours EMA), 24339, 24541, 24587 (Major Father line resistance 200 hours EMA) and 24700. Supports for Nifty remain at 24086, 24004 and finally 23816. 23816 is a major major support right now holding it from a major few hundred or even a thousand point fall. All is good till we do not get a closing below this point. Shadow of the candle right now looks neutral to positive.
To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment, financial awareness in general, process of investment in Equity or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Many People who have read it consider it as hand book and perfect guide to equity investment. You can read reviews of the book or purchase the same from Amazon. The book is available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. I am sure you are going to find it of massive use. Once you have read the book, I assure you that you will become a next level investor.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY : Levels and Strategies for 12-Nov-2024Intro:
In the previous session, Nifty traded within a defined range, testing key levels without strong directional movement. We observed a sideways trend (yellow) near 24,122 - 24,171 , while the bullish trend (green) highlighted potential resistance points, and the bearish trend (red) indicated key support zones. Today's session will focus on reactions near these levels to identify any possible breakouts or breakdowns.
Opening Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above)
If Nifty opens above the 24,171 level, it may initially face resistance in the First Resistance Zone at 24,327 - 24,361 . A breakout above this weak resistance level could open the path to the Last Resistance for Intraday at 24,423 . Further strength above 24,423 could lead to a move toward the Profit Booking Zone at 24,530 - 24,601 .
Traders may consider long positions if the price sustains above 24,327 , aiming for targets at the higher resistance zones, but they should exercise caution if Nifty struggles to hold above 24,361 .
Conservative traders might look for pullbacks near support levels before entering long positions.
Flat Opening
In the event of a flat opening around 24,122 , the No Trade Zone 24,100 - 24,171 should be monitored closely. Price movement within this zone could indicate consolidation.
A breakout above 24,171 could signal bullish intent, leading to targets at 24,327 - 24,361 . Conversely, a breakdown below 24,100 might drive the index toward the Buyer’s Support at 23,988 .
Flat openings generally suggest patience, so traders may wait for a breakout from the No Trade Zone before initiating positions.
Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below)
If Nifty opens below 24,100 , it may find support in the Buyer’s Support Zone around 23,988 . If this support holds, a recovery move back towards 24,100 is likely. A failure to hold above 23,988 could bring Nifty down to the Buyer’s Must Try Zone (Do or Die) at 23,828 - 23,777 .
Traders might look for shorting opportunities if Nifty breaks below 23,988 , with a target near the Buyer’s Must Try Zone. Alternatively, a bounce from the Buyer’s Support level could provide a chance for long trades towards 24,100 .
In gap-down scenarios, trading with a cautious mindset is crucial, and it’s often wise to wait for clear price action signals before entering trades.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Use appropriate stop-loss levels ( 24,100 , 24,327 , 24,423 ) to safeguard against unexpected moves.
Limit position sizes to manage potential risks, particularly during volatile conditions.
Consider using options spreads, like debit or credit spreads, to cap potential losses while still allowing for profit.
Avoid chasing trades in the No Trade Zone; wait for confirmed breakouts or breakdowns to enter options positions.
Summary and Conclusion:
The key levels to watch for 12-Nov-2024 are 24,171 (No Trade Zone upper boundary), 24,361 (First Resistance Zone), and 23,988 (Buyer’s Support). Observing price action near these levels can provide trading opportunities. Manage risks carefully, especially in options, to navigate through volatile market conditions effectively.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is based on technical analysis and personal insights. Traders should conduct their own analysis or consult a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NIFTY : Levels and Trading Plan for 11-Nov-2024
Nifty Trading Plan – 11-Nov-2024
Intro:
On the previous trading day, Nifty exhibited a mix of sideways and bearish trends, giving us valuable support and resistance zones. The yellow trend zones indicated periods of sideways movement, green zones showed bullish momentum, and red zones highlighted bearish pressure. We’re seeing strong resistance at 24,437 (Last Resistance for Intraday) and crucial support levels around 23,970 (Best Buy Zone for Buyers). Here’s how to approach the 11-Nov session based on potential market openings.
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Trading Plan for All Opening Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (100+ Points):
- If Nifty opens with a gap up above the First Resistance for Trend Reversal at 24,327, observe if it sustains above this level for the first 15-30 minutes.
- Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 24,327 can trigger a bullish trend toward the Last Resistance for Intraday at 24,437. If it continues its momentum, target the Sideways Zone/Resistance for Retracement at 24,714 as the next potential upside. Enter with caution, aiming to buy on retracements toward the 24,327 level.
- Bearish Scenario: If it fails to hold above 24,327 and dips back, expect a retracement toward the Opening Support zone around 24,164. Aggressive traders can look for short entries below this level with a target back toward the Best Buy Zone at 23,970.
Flat Opening:
- If Nifty opens flat around the 24,110 mark, wait for the price to settle for 15-30 minutes before taking any positions.
- Bullish Scenario: A move above the First Resistance at 24,288 can give bullish momentum with targets toward 24,327 and potentially 24,437. Enter long positions if prices show strong support around 24,288.
- Bearish Scenario: If Nifty breaks below the Opening Support level at 24,106, it could signal weakness, with targets around the Best Buy Zone at 23,970. Look for short entries if price action confirms bearish sentiment below 24,106.
Gap Down Opening (100+ Points):
- A gap down opening below 24,000 could lead to initial volatility. Monitor how it behaves around the Best Buy Zone for Buyers at 23,970.
- Bullish Scenario: If Nifty holds above 23,970 and shows signs of a reversal, consider going long with targets around the Opening Support level at 24,106.
- Bearish Scenario: If selling pressure continues and Nifty breaks below 23,970, expect a deeper pullback toward the Do or Die Level for Buyers at 23,728. Look for short opportunities if it sustains below 23,970 with a strict stop loss above the 23,970 level.
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Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
- Use limited-risk strategies such as spreads to control risk.
- Set stop losses based on daily candle close to avoid getting stopped out by intraday volatility.
- Adjust position sizing based on your risk tolerance; avoid over-leveraging.
- Consider exiting positions near target levels rather than waiting for exact points. Options premiums can decay quickly.
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Summary and Conclusion:
The market structure suggests key levels to watch for support and resistance. If Nifty sustains above key resistance at 24,327, it could lead to a bullish move, while a breach below support at 23,970 could prompt further downside. Be patient, wait for confirmation at each level, and manage risk effectively.
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Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This plan is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Nifty Medium to Long Term Outlook. Nifty on a weekly chart seems to be in the consolidation mode. With important geopolitical events that happened around the globe and India Nifty is trying to find a firm footing from where it can launch ahead. The events like Ukraine and Russia conflict, Israel and Iran++ conflict, Indian election results, Haryana assembly elections, US elections proved very volatile for the market. Upcoming events like China stimulus package and Maharashtra Elections will also be key for the direction of Nifty while moving ahead.
Best case Scenario for Nifty right now following the Parallel channel seems to be 27796 towards the mid and end of First quarter of 2025. (We would have to be a pure optimist to think it can reach close to 28K in the next 5/6 months but you never say never).
Median Scenario can keep Nifty range bound and we might find it exactly in the zone that it is right now that is between 24K and 25K.
Worst case scenario for Nifty seems to be between 20 and 21K as of now.(This is a less likely scenario but you never say never).
Major Support Levels for Nifty are at: 23816, 23211(Major Support 50 Weeks EMA-Mother Line), 22711, 21813, 21343 and 20858 (Channel Bottom Support).
Major Resistance levels for Nifty are : 24589, 25241, 25796, 26277, 27120 and 27796 (Channel Top Resistance).
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Disclaimer: The views are personal and request you not to take positions based on the above data. The chart and the levels given in the message are purely for the purpose of education.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 08-Nov-2024Previous Day’s Chart Overview:
On 07-Nov-2024, Nifty displayed a bearish movement with opening tick , with a clear consolidation phase after the breaking mentioned support zone. The chart highlights significant levels for both support and resistance that are likely to influence price movements on 08-Nov. The Yellow trend represents the sideways movement, the Green trend indicates a bullish scenario, and the Red trend shows potential bearish paths.
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Trading Plan for 08-Nov-2024
Gap Up Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens above 24,358.00 (Opening Resistance) and holds, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks near this level. A sustained move above could target 24,460.00 , the next intraday resistance.
Should Nifty face resistance near 24,460.00 and fail to break above, consider short opportunities for a quick pullback to 24,358.00.
Watch for a potential breakout above 24,460.00 which could trigger a move towards the 24,643.00 – 24,714.00 zone, where sideways resistance may impact the uptrend. Book profits or trail stops in this range.
Flat Opening (within ±50 points):
If Nifty opens near 24,190.60 and finds support above 24,174.95 (Opening Support) , consider long positions targeting 24,358.00 (Opening Resistance) .
A failure to hold 24,174.95 could signal weakness; watch for a potential test of 24,106.25 (Best Buying Level) , a strong support level for intraday buyers.
If Nifty consolidates between 24,174.95 and 24,106.25, remain cautious with small trades until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs.
Gap Down Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens near or below 24,106.25 (Best Buying Level) , observe if it finds support. A strong buying interest here could provide an opportunity to target the 24,174.95 - 24,190.60 zone.
A breakdown below 24,106.25 may lead to a bearish trend toward 23,970.00 , the next critical support level. Traders can consider short positions here with strict stop-losses.
If Nifty tests and breaks below 23,970.00 , the next “Do or Die” level for buyers is at 23,700.00 , where a trend reversal may occur if supported by volume.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Always use stop-loss orders, especially when trading near resistance and support levels.
Limit your position size to a maximum of 2-3% of your total capital to manage risk efficiently.
For option trades, consider hedging strategies such as spreads or using out-of-the-money options to minimize premium risks in volatile markets.
Summary & Conclusion:
Tomorrow’s market could present significant trading opportunities given the current setup, especially around key support and resistance zones. Be cautious near the “Do or Die” level for buyers at 23,700.00, as it may lead to a trend reversal. Focus on risk management to protect capital in volatile conditions.
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Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
Nifty unable to break Hourly Channel top corrects. Nifty had reached channel top of the downward channel on hourly chart and was clearly not able to defeat it as evident in the chart and corrected wiping all the gains from yesterday's trump rally. Can it make one more effort to claim the channel top and defeat it is the question. Supports for Nifty remain at 24179, 24073 and 23816. Below 23816 the bears will feel empowered and can drag Nifty down to 23500 or 23200 levels. Resistances on the upper side remain at 24262 (Mother line resistance of 50 hours EMA), 24504, 24559 and finally father line of 200 Hour EMA at 24650.
This will remain a volatile week with major shift in global policies and realignments, FED Rate decision and other Geopolitical events. Keep an eye on situation in the Middle East and Ukraine, Russia front. Positive news will have again empower bears and give another rally like Trump rally seen yesterday. Shadow of the candles is Neutral to negative again. Bond yield, Gold, Silver, Dollar index, Crude can remain volatile while NASDAQ and Dow are in the Optimistic curve. November month will in general will remain volatile and next one week will decide the fate of Indian markets. With FIIs still on selling side and DII on buying side looks like things will remain topsy turvy for Indian markets.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only and views are personal. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 07-Nov-2024Trading Plan for Nifty - 07-Nov-2024
Intro:
On the previous trading day, Nifty displayed a strong bullish movement, trading near resistance zones and showing signs of potential reversals. The key levels for today's session include the profit booking zone at 24,841 , opening resistance at 24,583 , and opening support around 24,407 . The chart’s yellow trend lines indicate potential sideways movement, green represents bullish scenarios, and red highlights bearish trends.
Opening Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (100+ Points Above):
If Nifty opens with a gap up above 24,583 , closely monitor price action around the 24,781 - 24,841 profit booking zone. A strong breakout above 24,841 could indicate further bullish momentum, creating an opportunity for long entries with a stop-loss below 24,583 .
However, if resistance at this level holds, expect a retracement towards 24,583 . This can signal a potential reversal, allowing for short trades targeting the opening support near 24,407 .
Flat Opening:
If Nifty opens near 24,493 , focus on the levels at 24,583 (opening resistance) and 24,407 (opening support). Observe these zones for directional clues:
A move above 24,583 could test the profit booking area ( 24,781 - 24,841 ), creating a favorable long opportunity.
A rejection at 24,583 could suggest a sideways trend between 24,583 and 24,407 . In this range-bound scenario, consider small scalp trades with defined stop-losses.
Breaking below 24,407 may drive the index lower, with a potential target at 24,273 (buyer’s support at retracement).
Gap Down Opening (100+ Points Below):
If Nifty opens below 24,407 , look for support around 24,273 . A bounce from this level may provide an opportunity for a quick recovery trade towards 24,407 .
Should 24,273 fail to hold, bearish pressure could take Nifty towards 24,160 or even the last buyer's support at 24,108 . This scenario would favor short positions with stop-losses above immediate resistance.
If Nifty rebounds above 24,407 post-gap down, look for a potential pullback rally targeting 24,583 .
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Define stop-loss levels based on critical support/resistance areas ( 24,583 , 24,407 , 24,273 ) to limit risk.
Avoid aggressive trades during high volatility; keep position sizes manageable.
Use hedged strategies, such as spreads, to control premium outlay and reduce risk.
Continuously trail stop-losses in favor of the trend to secure partial profits.
Summary and Conclusion:
The main levels to watch for Nifty on 07-Nov-2024 are 24,583 (opening resistance), 24,407 (opening support), and 24,273 (buyer’s support). Stay vigilant around these areas to capture potential breakout or reversal trades, and adhere to disciplined risk management in options trading to safeguard against volatility.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on technical observations and personal insights. Please perform your due diligence or consult with a financial advisor before taking any trading actions.