Niftyoutlook
Be Careful With long Positions.Nifty has broken the previous life time high trend line and again took the resistance at 11050 level. this week nifty could see profit booking from strong supply zone of 11088-11150. I will sell if price comes at 11090-11120 Level with the stop loss of 11200 for the target of 10900-10800
Nifty July Series Setup?Nifty Has been Consolidation between 10855 and 10592 since last last week of may. Fundamental strong trigger is required to boost the bulls but as of now rising Oil Prices as well as depreciation of rupee is the big concern.I am hoping that nifty will touch 11000 this series because monthly chart is still in bull trend. Best buy will be only above 10855 and below 10592 nifty may show 10300-10200 which shows to be impossible as of now.
Nifty- Is Bull Run Over?Nifty is In Downtrend Channel which is formed in Dec 2017.Now Nifty Has broke uptrend channel formed in March 2018. Nifty hAs strong Support at 10466 which is 200 EMA and also 50% Retracement at 10450. So buying can be Seen Near 10450.So This Week I will Wait for this level to Buy and to Short I will wait for 10674-10700. If Nifty Dont Sustain and Break 10450 then 10250 Can Be Seen.
NIFTY50 - When Will The Pullback Start?!Good evening Traders,
Since my last update on NIFTY it managed to break the resistance level which I mentioned here.
But now after breaking the important level, I am expecting more upside. But first NIFTY needs a correction lower.
My view is that if NIFTY can break the rising trendline lower, it can retest the resistance area now acting as new support at around 10612.57 areas. This will my preferred view.
However, there is another possibility. It extends now higher making a marginal new high and starts then a bigger correction lower. Let's see which one plays out.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view.
Nifty Weekly ViewNifty has Been sustained above 10530 since last 4 trading sessions which shows bulls are trying to be in. Since last two trading sessions dojis are formed which technically tells us that traders are confused.Close and sustain above 10580 will take nifty to 10680-10700, But sustain and close below 10580 will lead to 10480 which can be again good buy opportunity this week.
MARKET OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY,APR 13, 2018After deliberating in the first half of the session, the NIFTY attempted to move past its 50-DMA and 200-DMA and inch higher. The Markets ended in the green for the six day in a row with the NIFTY gaining 41.50 points or 0.40%. The Markets saw a brief consolidation near the 50-DMA and the 100-DMA mark which remain in extremely close vicinity at 10413 and 10444 respectively.
As we approach the last trading day of the week, we may again see Markets opening on a quiet note. The zone of 10480-10500 zones will be important and if these are not clearly breached on the upside, the Markets still remain prone to consolidation and some profit taking bouts at higher levels. However, the undercurrent continues to remain buoyant.
The levels of 10480 and 10535 will play out as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10415 and 10365 levels.
The RSI on the Daily Chart is 58.4023 and it has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. However, RSI continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line. On the Candles, and engulfing bullish line occurred. This is not out rightly bearish but it certainly warrants some caution at current levels as this formation has occurred after an up move. This has potential to halt the up move temporarily and push the Markets into some consolidation.
As of now, pattern analysis suggests that NIFTY has managed to inch higher than its 50-DMA and 100-DMA and has managed to close a notch above that. However, given the present structure of the Chart, we still cannot rule out some consolidation at higher levels.
Overall, there is no denying the fact that the undercurrent remains buoyant. However, we cannot overlook the present short term formations which point towards likely consolidation happening at current levels. We see high probability of Markets witnessing some profit taking bouts at higher levels with very limited downsides. Also, the high PCR levels (Put to Call Ratio Levels) too point towards some likely pause in the up move. While expecting Markets to consolidate at higher levels, we advise vigilant protection of profits at higher levels while continuing to use downsides to make select purchases.
STOCKS TO WATCH:
Favorable technical setup is observed in stocks like KPIT, TCS, SUBEX, INFIBEAM, M&M Financial, CAMLIN FINE SCIENCES, RADICO KHAITAN, CYIENT, TATA CHEMICALS and JAI BHARAT MARUTI.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member:
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
Technical Outlook for Thursday, April 12, 2018While continuing its uptick for the fifth day in a raw, the Indian Equity Markets ended yet another day with NIFTY seeing minor gains of 14.90 points or 0.14%. Markets have exhibited extremely positive underlying intent as it recovered from the low point of the day. However, they have continued to resist to the 50-DMA and 100-DMA values which remain in extremely close vicinity of each other.
As we approach the Thursday’s trade and despite the fact that there is very evident positive undercurrent, we still feel there is a need to approach the Markets with caution. The 50-DMA and 100-DMA levels which stand at 10425 and 10440 respectively will continue to resist the Markets at Close levels.
The levels of 10440 and 10495 will act as immediate resistance area for the Markets. Supports come in at 10380 and 10320 zones.
The Relative Strength Index – RSI on the Daily Chart is 56.4564 and it has marked a yet another 14-period high which is bullish. It continues to remain neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD remains bullish while it trades above its signal line. On the Candles, a hanging man occurred. With such formation occurring during an up move, it raises some caution at current levels. It has a potential to temporarily stall the up move.
While having a look at pattern analysis, though the Markets continue to remain comfortably in the primary up move, it facing short term resistance as well. The levels of 50-DMA and 100-DMA which remain in very close vicinity of each other are likely to cause short term resistance area for the Markets.
Overall, the Markets have continued to exhibit a strong undercurrent. It has continued to add Open Interest with each minor up move. However it also faces as major pattern resistance at 50-DMA and 100-DMA. Though we may not see any significant downsides but the Markets certainly remain prone to volatile profit taking bouts from higher levels. We continue to advise protecting profits at higher levels. There are higher chances that even if the Markets continue with its up move, it might face some range bound consolidation at higher levels. Positive caution is advised for the day.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA
Technical Analyst
(Research Analyst, SEBI Reg. No. INH000003341)
Member:
CMT Association (Formerly known as Market Technicians Association, (MTA), USA
Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, (CSTA), CANADA
Society of Technical Analysts (STA), UK
www.EquityResearch.asia
milan-vaishnav.blogspot.com
+91- 70164-32277 / +91-98250-16331
milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia
milanvaishnav@yahoo.com
400+ UP move possible in NIFTY, Bullish setup,Corrective waveLooks like, we could be getting 400+ UP move in NIFTY in form of corrective wave, which would form 'b' wave of down ZigZag move. There are no signs of bullish move yet, we just made new lows, Lower timeframe BUY setup is still pending before entering LONG trade.
Nifty 50 Day chart trend analysis My #Nifty analysis
»» Nifty took support on 200 DMA on day charts and gaining momentum
»» Nifty closed below crucial 0.618 level and struggled between 0.5 & 0.618 in previous sessions
»» Nifty making head & shoulders patterns on day charts
»» Nifty should cross 10650 and should close above 10760 to make new high
»» Nifty, if closed below 10130, we can see levels of 10000 and closing below 10k, we can see 9800-50 levels
Key *resistance* : 10510, 10650, 10670
Key *support* : 10250, 10130, 10000, 9850
Nifty Analysis & outlookThe previous high nifty made was @ 10137 on 2nd August 2017.
Now it is about to test the same high again. There will be strong resistance between 10137 to 10150 (being round number).
If it closes above 10137 - 10150 on daily chart it should be a buy with stop-loss at 10128 (...giving cushion to avoid whipsaws).
If it tests 10137 it may retrace to support @ 9983-10000 before it breaks out of the 10150, which I see at intraday buy opportunity.
To conclude, a break out above 10150 with good volumes would make it a high probability trade (HPT), with great Risk to Reward ratio.
Nifty Analysis and TargetTechnically, Nifty is expected to bounce from support of 9685; and if it successfully does so then the next target would be 10128 for the 5th subwave of the 3rd.
My only concern is the bearish global market sentiment due to geopolitical tensions between US - N.Korea and India-China Doklam standoff heating up.
If the Nifty trades below 9685, I would consider it Bearish; but wouldn't short.
NIFTY COMPLETE WEEKLY & DAILY ANALYSISGreetings traders,
This is a weekly update following our monthly, daily & probability analysis
Please do not proceed with this analysis , if you haven't come across any of those. Refer to them at first & proceed with this analysis - link in the signature section (below)!
Now to the analysis,
Following our daily update,
we mentioned that the NIFTY 0.18% could turn at any level at/above 50% R in the plotted resistance zones for X2 but our double confirmation post revealed that the powerful zone to act as a resistance would be 50% R due to the added trend line's angular resistance.
Now NIFTY 0.18% has been stumbling in the 61.8 Zones.
For any avid & serious trader, this would be a good spot to take their sell position, accounting the underpinning bearishness in the asset & it has a long way down based on our analysis!
For conservative traders, it is a walk through mist scenario where you can't see things clearly as if they were! yet we can say only a thing - wait for the market to unfold downwards & take your positions accordingly! (you might miss a few ticks but that is negotiable for safety)
For understanding the risk (SL) & (TP), please refer to the link in the signature section below
(it is elaborate & a bit tricky - hence we made a video presentation in it - feel free to watch it).
Fell free to reach us to share your thoughts/comments!
Happy Trading
Will NIFTY test 7800 levels again?Greetings traders & investors,
This analysis is a combination of various prospects & contains a clear description for each of that
"we don't understand a movie by missing half of it".- the same is true with markets,
Let's understand NIFTY in higher time frames & continue through the same tunnel in lower degrees
There are 'n' number of possibilities(probabilities) that could frame the near & long term future moves for NIFTY the analysis progress through the provision of unbiased weightage to all of them based on various factors, rules & guidelines and as usual this analysis is backed by a video presentation, which you can find in our signature section below!
NIFTY MONTHLY ANALYSIS:
The monthly timeframe comprises of super-cycle degree moves within the grand super-cycle 3rd wave, from OCTOBER 08(this has a long way to go). However, the shorter time frames have a different story (which is important for traders).
The 3 waves in the super-cycle degree have been completed and we have the 4th wave in the sequence, unfolding.
The 50% R of the 3rd wave have been tested & the current move is a retracement of the correction & it could end relatively in the cluster of resistance zones (in lower degrees).
This analysis takes into account the psychology underpinning the asset, mathematical relationships, geopolitical events & finally indicators, only to support the analysis!
To understand various levels - take profit, Stop loss & trading strategies for the long, medium & short term. please refer to the video!
Irrespective of all the probabilities, the analysis clearly gives the direction for various trading setups.