Niftyoutlook
Descending Wedge. Long term trend line break.Hi all,
After a long term trend-line break in Nifty and 20-50 MA crossover in Nifty, Nifty is now respecting the short term downward trend-line. Lack of any trigger in near term can magnet nifty down to its 200 ma which is around 8200, although, I am expecting it to retrace all the way back to its 50% Fibonacci level which is around 7920.
However, this set up will no longer be valid if nifty closes above 8800 for two consecutive days. So with short to medium term perspective any one can short nifty below 8630 (break below cloud) with 8800 SL and lucrative risk reward ratio of 1: 5 (150 point stop 700 point target).
Please consider stop loss and target on closing basis only.
Thanks.
Nifty Flag or Falling Wedge !!!Hi Friends,
A few days ago before Oct expiry when Nifty was trading at 8730, I recommended selling nifty with SL of 8800 on closing basis on a break of 8630. Within two days Nifty made a low of 8550.
I am now revising this post to update those who are in profit to trail your position with trailing SL of 8725 on closing basis. So, now if nifty close above 8725 we will walk break even or with a small profit. We already booked one lot at 8550 with an intention of if nifty takes short term support we can sell that back at around 8650 which is what we did yesterday.
On a monthly medium to long term chart, all indicators are setting up in a bearish mode including MA crossover, stoch, MACD and RSI. The technicals are strongly supported by inevitable FED rate hike post-USA election.
Please also have look at my TATA Steel prediction purely based on technicals where we sold 410 rs put option of 2 rs in 20 rs next day morning at the end of Oct expiry. I didn't know that Cyrus Mistry was going to be a rebellion but chart did. So, always trusts ur charts irrespective of news.
Happy trading and keep trailing...
Thanks for reading.
NIFTY DETAILED INSIGHTS - ANA ELLIOTT PERSPECTIVE
Greeting traders and investors,
Been a while since our last publication
Now back to the business
POST COVERAGE - NIFTY LONG TERM, Medium term & short term (DETAILED ANALYSIS WITH VIDEO PRESENTATION for free)
NIFTY has been riding high waves for a while and the main thing that is fish about the move is, it is not supported by the psychology and this move precedes a big decline, which will last for months to years and to know how the psychology is influenced by various factors, lets just understand the smallest elements to largest elements in the evolution of markets.
The NIFTY has been rallying past 7 months without any pause and it is also nearing its greatest resistance - all time highs of 9119 and the moves beyond this point is really challenging a trader.
Various challenges are detailly explained in the BLOG POST in our website,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Nifty : Let's Ride the Waves...Happy Monday Friends !
Probably,few have Monday blues but we are the ones who wait for Monday...This particular post is kind-of educative analysis to determine overall view of the markets purely based on prediction from my experience.
Let's check our surfboards right away & get it ready to surf along Nifty waves...
Next resistance level for Nifty around 8800's to 8850's,lets keep a note of this zone will be used later in analysis.
The above chart has two types of Elliott wave counts (nothing complex, simple wave counting only). Wave Type-1 starts @ 8520's & Wave type-2 @ 8540's. In both wavecounts Nifty has completed Wave-2 and now moving along Wave-3 where it's kinda consolidating forming symmetrical triangle pattern. Now we need to look for wave 3 end, check the fib extension levels on Wave-1 for both type-1 & type-2, Fib extensions 1.618 of Wave-1(Type-1) & Fib extensions 2.0 & 2.24 of Wave-1(Type-2) ends up in our marked zone 8800-8850,so Wave-3 will end in this zone.
Wave-3 is biggest wave, so what if we get a chance to ride the wave ? Yes, we do have a chance with the symmetrical triangle which we have noticed earlier.Considering that an upper breakout happens in Nifty, we will ride the bulls up to our zone 8800. Now,please take a look at chart again what do we see ? Bearish Crab...coinciding with wave-4, lets remove our Bull shirts and dress up as Bear's till next support in Nifty which is 8700.Then back again to wave-5 upwards to 8900's. So here we are planning for all blooming rosy scenario of 500pts in Nifty.
If someother priceaction happens in Nifty other than our all rosy scenario, re-analyse the charts and enter based on confirmation from your tradeplan. Never enter on hope that as we did analysis,Nifty will follow our path.Everything goes well, we will pocket 500pts in next 20 trading days,probably around Sep 20's.With RBI Governor's appointment announced,if market takes it as positive we will get breakout from this triangle.
The crux is to enter Wave-3 of Triangle breakout, Wave-4 on Bearish Crab and Wave-5 on simple pullback system.There is another post I did on BankNifty based on Elliott's in-line with this Nifty analysis,check it out. I hope this post is really informative on how to do an analysis n confirm your entry points.
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Happy Trading !!!
Nifty : Just an analysis... Now there will be 1000 reasons and theories why Nifty dropped down from 8720's.To check n validate whether those are right or wrong is not our job and that's not worth our time. Let those reasoning's be right, it cant make any real money, but if you have traded in right direction with your trade plan( Be it fundamental or technical) ,if you made money you are far better than those empty theories.Don't we know from start of august itself, Nifty is gonna be weak with GST passing (Sell on News ) ? Enough of past discussions, lets get back to field work !
Nifty took out the support zone of 8580's, though we don't have any valid support on hourly till it reaches trendline
which is also Fib extension 2.0 if you draw fibs on Wave 1 and we do have fib extension 1.618 in the 8580's support zone, so easily that can pass as Wave 3. Well, I don't wanna predict where exactly Nifty ends its wave 3. So what we are looking for ??
Scenario 1 : if the Blue trendline support is broken enter short ( I really expect Nifty won't break it just like that, so we will get pullback to 8570's zone before breaking the supportline - that's the pullback area we are waiting to enter shorts. Use very strict stops if this happens.
Scenario 2 : Can touch supportline and bounce back breaking upwards above redline, Enter longs in Nifty only after our 8570's zone is crossed. This will be safe entry according to Me, to initiate long positions.
Scenario 3 : If Nifty ends wave 3 around 8570's n bounces up, I won't be taking any positions bcos I'm unsure about the move till red upper trendline is taken out.
Final Scene : Well, who knows ? That's Nifty's Style,Boss !
Thanks for your Likes..Happy Trading !
Nifty : Insider's Inside Bar - Channeling !We have an Inside bar from friday, though the high's n low's of the pattern broke yesterday with wicks many might have taken swing trades and got stopped out in Nifty.It happens, Thats why conservative traders like us who are very aware of risks, wait for valid close of candle. So in Nifty with the GST gonna get passed by tomorrow I expect candle close above or below the marked lines within wednesday to get directional trades in Nifty.
Don't miss out we have channeling also, so if you want to trade channel breakouts, go for it.
Hit Like button to keep me motivated to post more ideas...Thanks for your support !
Happy Trading !!
NIFTY July FUT - Elliott Wave Analysis
Greetings traders & readers,
This Analysis for the JULY contract is special because this is a part of our exclusive service Premium trade setups.
To learn more about the Premium trade setup (PTS). click the link below,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Now lets deal with the analysis in weekly time frame and just understand what is happening over there.
We have already discussed that the move from the deep lows have been in the corrective form (triple threes) within the impulse wave 1 in one larger degree and above all we have also given a clear area of resistance & the point of turn, which is what happening currently.
The NIFTY has pierced the area that we have mentioned ( the area around 8333 - 8400 ) and this have been reflected precisely and having done what it is said earlier, lets also find what is about to happen in the near term future for JULY month contract and for the best understanding purposes the analysis have been carried out in daily charts with a detailed video ( which will give a clear perspective over the movements through all this time).
Continued in our website and the same is free,
www.mytradingcourses.com
Feel free to ask for any clarifications through chat / comments in our website ( for instant response) and / or through our trading view Profile.
If you feel that the analysis is worthy, please follow us on trading view to keep yourself updated with us & the markets. we need your support.
Thanks for reading the article
Regards,
Dinesh. R
Senior Technical analyst,
LeadBrains - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading Education & Training firm
Nifty Long term viewNifty need to consolidate between 8000 to 8500 before trending up either in first week Oct 2016 or in mid Dec 2016.
For all this Nifty should protect 7500. I believe it would be successful in defending 7500
Nifty : False Channel Breakout or Early Breakout ??Let's start with Britain's referendum polls. No one is sure what will be poll results, Its Neck to neck between BRemain & Brexit. What Nifty will do inline with poll results ?
If Bremain happens - Nifty Gap Up ; If Brexit - Nifty Gap Down.
Rare case : There is possibility of Nifty ignoring the result as India has some vested interest in both scenarios
Coming back to charts, we have channeling and price ranging for past few days between 8000 to 8300.
Today the upper trendline broke and we have solid close above trendline. This can be false breakout or early breakout for bullish run, cant say with much confirmation as the channel is still in formation.
If Upper Breakout is valid, then Nifty will try to fill previous gap @8350's but if markets are in full bullish momentum & didnt face any resistance around 8350's , it will straight away go for 8500's - small pullback -then 8600's.
On Downside Nifty has very strong support @8000's,but some valid fundamental thing needs to happen to break this level sooner or later to retest 7500-7700's. After that markets will touch 9000 mark. If 9000 happens straightaway that it will be fragile.
Dont miss to note the double top @8295, which means market can move lower if Double top works.Both these scenario's gets complex with Brexit poll news. So wait till results then look at charts to make a decision.
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Happy Trading !
NIFTY JUN FUTURES - Elliott Perspective
Greetings Traders & readers,
ONE Happy news for all, from this month we are about to release FREE insights on NIFTY FUTURES for current contract, in the beginning of every month - starting today...!
As you can see from the chart we are about to discuss the analysis on NIFTY in weekly time frames
but before that lets also take as deep look at the monthly charts over here,
From which one can observe four consecutive months of Rally lifting it from the depressions of 2015
But the entire move as we have discussed is purely corrective in its existence.
Don't you think that the market is up for a correction now and lets have a clear insight about what's happening :
The Wave 1 as it is earlier described in previous Posts have been developing into an Leading diagonal and this consists of corrective waves replacing impulse waves in their respective places, here it is triple threes in weekly time frames as you can see from the weekly chart,
However we have something to be discussed in detail without which the analysis is incomplete and that is to dig deeper in daily charts and we have carried the same in our website with a Video explanation - A freebie, do check it out here,
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( few Questions of users are also being answered in the video on Previous analysis)
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Please support Us - we are not charging for this analysis and we want to keep it that way, so lend us your hand as support...! share this post if you can, spread the word - a word from mouth is really helpful and like us in FB & Follow us in trading view
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Thank you for reading the article
Regards,
Dinesh - senior technical analyst
LeadBrains FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading Education & training firm
Nifty - Sum of all factors - An Elliott Perspective
Sorry for the discontinuity as we were engaged in some other obsessions
Now to the Analysis,
You never understand a movie by missing a half of it , so don't miss it
THE LONG AWAITED YEARLY ANALYSIS ON NIFTY IS BEING PROPOSED & the same is gaining attention of all fellow trader. why miss your seat. check it out here,
After that do revisit this ANALYSIS,
Each & every trader will definitely find this analysis compelling to read & understand
The NIFTY has reversed from its 2015 LOW's & the important idea here is that the upward move is definitely not an impulsive rally, it is corrective in nature - which opens the gate for varied options as Elliott has described in the Wave Principle. The corrections at initiation of the trend have been classified as a Leading diagonal Triangle.
Trade Accordingly at each levels of individual waves & at this point....
Thanks for your time
Dinesh -Senior Technical analyst
LeadBrains FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading education & Training firm
Nifty 50 viewWe expect Nifty spot which is currently near the range of 7889 to touch 7778 in short term.
Nifty ::: Expected to Sink ::: Risk CallNifty is expected to sink now.
There are many reason why we feel it may sink.
01. It is already trading below quarterly Target 03.
02. Bearish Engulfing in weekly chart
03. To sink and come near 6943 to 6880
04. Stoch RSI (3,3,14,Close) clearly states it may sink.
05. RSI(14,CLOSE) Is also of the same view.
06. CCI(20,CLOSE) Is also sinking.
Keeping all the above indicators in view along with the chart pattern we expect it to sink. As we have budget this week it is a risk to trade Nifty our view is 6943 to 6880. We are expecting this to happen on budget day that is 29 Feb 2016. Caution: The above is our personal view. Neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for trade. Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing. [/b
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Continuing from the monthly forecasts in the website, an elliott wave analyst can observe the same as we do, the nifty peaked at an all time high of 9119.2 on mar 2015, the downfall is around a year and when will it end...?
obviously an traditional trader doesn't have answer for this question but the perspective that elliott offfers is significant & different and we can observe that wave 3 had peaked at the areas of 9119 and from thereon wave 4 decline has began and within the three wave general structure we can identify a complex triple three w,x,y & z in it and the final wave among them is being unfolded and it had an expansion within itself to be another triple three and within one lesser degree expansion we can find even other degree of expansion in (y) wave and it have been finished recently and the interim rally that we are facing now is for the (x) wave seperating (y) & (z) and the projections for the (x) wave is very subtle yet it has many layers of resistances...,
To find out the exact turning point of (x) wave read our analysis below this degree (IN DAILY CHARTS for free from here), click here to read it now..
www.mytradingcourses.com
The ultimate downfall target is 61.8% of previous wave 3 rally and this explains why there are this many stages of expansions within the currently unfolding 4th wave.( The target & volatility determines the rate of Expansion ).
DINESH - SENIOR TECHNICAL ANALYST
LEADBRAINS FSL - www.mytradingcourses.com - Trading education & Training firm
NIFTY LONG
Nifty0.26% has formed a BULLISH HARAMI on weekly basis. We are expecting NIFTY0.26% to gap up on Monday and may stay long through the futures expiry on 25 February 2015. futures may touch 7330 to 7365 levels.the same has been confirmed by Stoch RSI , RSI & CCI . The above is our personal view. It is not a tip, Nor a proposal to buy/sell , Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing. We are not responsible for your gains/losses what so ever.
Nifty ::: LONG:::Nifty expected to rise.
Nifty has formed a BULLISH HARAMI on weekly basis. We are expecting NIFTY to gap up on Monday and may stay long through the futures expiry on 25 February 2015. futures may touch 8330 to 8365 levels.the same has been confirmed by Stoch RSI , RSI & CCI. The above is our personal view. It is not a tip, Nor a proposal to buy/sell , Please consult your personal financial advisor before investing. We are not responsible for your gains/losses what so ever.
