#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 21-25th Oct 2024The Nifty 50 index concluded the week at 24,854, a 110-point decline from the previous week's close. Despite hitting a high of 25,212 and a low of 24,567, the index remained within its expected trading range of 25,550 to 24,350. Looking ahead, I anticipate the Nifty to continue trading between 25,400 and 24,300.
A breakdown below 24,486 , the WEMA21 support level, would signal a bearish trend, potentially leading to a decline towards 23,400 or 23,300 . Conversely, a sustained move above 25,144 could pave the way for a rally to 25,500-25,600.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index achieved a new all-time high weekly close of 5,864, up approximately 40 points from the previous week. This suggests a potential upward move of 2-2.5% from its current level, targeting the significant Fibonacci level of 6,013. It remains to be seen if this positive momentum in the U.S. market will translate into a recovery for the Indian stock market."
Niftyoutlook
Nifty is trying to stage recovery but 3 big hurdles are nearby.Nifty has on Friday tried to stage a recovery. It ended up 287 points from day's low which was a remarkable feat. Now it is staring at 3 or 4 major hurdles before Bulls can come back in business. But well begun is half the job done. The three major resistances are at 24886 that is Friday's high, 24960 that is Mother line of 1 hour chart, and 25172 that is father line of 1 hour chart.
To know more about Mother, Father and Small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
After 25172 the major hurdle will be at 25211. Closing above 25211 the bulls can try to take Nifty to higher levels. Support zones for Nifty will be at 24611, 24559 and 24466. If we get a closing below 24466 the bears can pull the Nifty further down and create more downside.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of biases including confirmation bias, information bias, halo effect and anchoring bias in this write-up. Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risk please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart or any other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. They are not recommendations of any kind. We will not be responsible for Profit or loss due to descision taken based on this article. The names of the stocks or index levels mentioned if any in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
Nifty Vs Moon Phases: How interesting is the chart?(educational)Look at the chart and the effect of moon phases on moves of Nifty. The dark circle resonates with the dates of no moon day and Grey circle indicates the day when we saw a full moon. Invariably in most of the no moon days as can be seen in the chart index is at the peak near no moon day. Then there is a fall seen in Nifty. Recovery starts in few days of Full moon day and then again Nifty makes a peak near no moon day? Is it just a coincidence? Well the chart says everything that I have to say but there is serendipity. If we go by this analysis the recovery in Nifty might be round the corner. Say tomorrow or may be first half of next week.
RSI is currently on daily chart is at 37.9 with supports at 36.43 or 26.21 that was the lowest RSI in the last one year on daily charts.
Bollinger band shows a support zone near 24430 range. That is the place around which we can expect the turnaround. Father line support is near 23389 which currently looks like a worst case scenario. Resistance for Nifty seems to be at 25033 and 25400.
To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment, financial awareness in general, process of investment in Equity or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Many People who have read it consider it as hand book and perfect guide to equity investment. You can read reviews of the book or purchase the same from Amazon. The book is available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. I am sure you are going to find it of massive use. Once you have read the book, I assure you that you will become a next level investor.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Nifty Plummets! All Targets Achieved in 15-Minute Short TradeTechnical Analysis: Nifty – 15-Minute Timeframe (Short Trade)
Nifty provided a clear short trade setup with an entry at 25006.45 on 16th October at 2:45 PM. The trade has been highly successful, with the price reaching all designated profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 25006.45 – The short position was initiated here following a strong bearish signal.
Stop-Loss (SL): 25032.75 – Placed above recent resistance to manage risk against a potential reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 24973.90 – The first target was quickly reached, confirming the initial bearish momentum.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 24921.30 – Further downside pressure pushed the price to this level.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 24868.70 – The bearish trend continued, achieving this target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 24836.20 – The final target, marking a complete and successful trade.
Trend Analysis
The price stayed firmly below the Risological Dotted trendline, affirming the strength of the bearish trend. The sustained selling pressure helped achieve all targets, indicating strong market momentum in favor of sellers.
The short trade on Nifty has concluded successfully, hitting all targets, with the final target at 24836.20. The precision of the entry and the guidance of the Risological Dotted trendline ensured a profitable trade.
#nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 14th-18th Oct 2024The Nifty 50 closed the week at 24,964, a 50-point decline from the previous week. While it touched a high of 25,234, it also dipped to a low of 24,694. As predicted last week, the index remained within the range of 25,600 to 24,400.
Looking Ahead: A Cautious Outlook
For the upcoming week, I anticipate a trading range of 25,550 to 24,350. However, the low of 24,694 is a crucial support level. If the Nifty breaches this, the next strong support lies at 24,400-24,350. A breakdown below this level could signal a potential decline towards 23,300.
A Bullish Monthly Perspective
Despite the recent volatility, my monthly outlook for the Nifty remains bullish. Therefore, I will follow a "buy on dips" strategy.
S&P 500: A Positive Sign
As mentioned previously, the S&P 500 has successfully reached its first Fibonacci target of 5820. To initiate the next leg of its upward movement, it needs to sustain above this level. If it can do so, we could see it touch 5899 or even 6012 (a significant level). This positive momentum in the U.S. market could also provide support to Indian equities.
Trendline resistance continues to halt Nifty. Closing BellThe trend line resistance continues to halt Nifty. Again today after making a high of 25134 Nifty saw selling pressure mostly again from FIIs. This time Nifty closed the day at 24998 below the psychological level of 25,000. This can enable bears to make Nifty test the support zone between 24932 and 24677. The resistance of Nifty are now at 25057, 25134 and 25204 Mother line resistance of 50 hours EMA and 25294 father line resistance of 200 hours EMA. Nifty continues to squeeze between support and resistance trend line and tomorrow can be the day when we can see either a proper upwing or downward move. Above 25294 Bulls will be very aggressive and drive Nifty upwards. Below 24677 Bears will be very aggressive and thrash Nifty downwards.
Strictly do not trade/invest without keeping Stop losses and Trailing stop losses. Stop losses protect your capital and trailing stop losses protect your profits. To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment in Equity in general or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Which is available in Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NIFTY Short Mastery on 15m Time Frame: 940 Points SecuredOn the 30th of September, we initiated a short entry at 25996.85 using the Risological Swing Trader, capturing a robust downtrend as the price continued to respect our dotted trendline indicator. To date, this strategy has delivered a significant 940 points in profit, exemplifying the effectiveness of our approach.
Target Points:
TP 1: 25823.50
TP 2: 25543.00
TP 3: 25262.50
TP 4: 25089.15
Stop Loss (SL): 26137.10
The Risological Swing Trader has once again proven its strength in spotting market reversals, allowing us to secure substantial gains. We will stay vigilant as we approach the reversal.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 08/10/2024Slightly gap up opening expected in nifty near 24900 level. 24950-25000 will act as a strong upside resistance for nifty. Possible nifty gives reversal from this level towards the 24700 level and this can be extend upto 24500 in case nifty gives breakdown of 24700 level. Any strong bullish side rally only expected above 25000 level.
Nifty again finds itself at make or break level. Mother father supports drawn on hourly candle are gone. Mid channel support is just breached. Shadow of the candle is negative. RSI finds itself at critical level in a pennant. Nifty is still oversold territory in the hourly chart. When everything seems lost we wait for the confirmation that Nifty can give about it's temporary bottom. The support for nifty as of now seem at 24667 Bollinger band bottom support, 24470, 24216 and finally 23942 level. Resistances for Nifty are at 24935, 25147, 25574 and finally 25740. The recovery might be around the corner we can expect a turnaround but probably towards mid-week, weekend or next week.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 07/10/2024Gap up opening expected in nifty near 25200 level. After opening nifty will face strong resistance at 25250 level and possible reversal from this level. Downside 25000 will act as a crucial support for today's session. In case nifty gives breakdown of 24950 level then we can see strong downside fall upto 24700 level. Any upside rally only expected if nifty starts trading and sustain above 25250 level.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 07-Oct-24 to 11-Oct-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 07-Oct-24 to 11-Oct-24
Nifty closed at 25014 ( Last Week 26179 ) and touched low & high of 25839-26285 ( all time high)
Market saw a drop of 4.5% last week due to concern on Middle East War Situation. Market touched new high 2 weeks before , and touched all time high of Mid Term Resistance 26260
Nifty Bank 51462 ( 53834), touched the target of 54000 as proposed 2 months before (54400 all time high) and support at 49900. Buy on dips.
Fed Rate Cut by 0.5% made the global market up and triggered increase in Indian Market in sep.
FPI invested 4 Billion $ in Sep and pulled out 3.5 Billion $ in 3 trading session in Oct.
US President Election result scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. RBI in India expected to reduce rate from end of this year.
RSI ,macd and stochastics levels are down. Caution to be emphasized as Stochastics at overbought level. Q2 results awaited which will pave way for more clearer path in market.
Nifty 25014 Short term ( Short Term : Down)
Nifty short term resistance 25675 & 26000 trend line resistance as shown in chart.
Support at 24814 ( 0.618 Fib Retracement)
Medium Term next target is 26266 & if move up decisively above next target is 27000
Medium term Support 24650 (Trend line support and Fib Resistance), 24480 (Fib Support) and 24000.
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 28190 ( Fibonacci Resistance). Support at 22800
US started reducting fed rate as expected in Sep 2024, expected it shall continue in reduction of interest rate in next year.
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for last 3 months as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Mutual Funds SIP shall be invested as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period as the valuation is high.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as CAMS, UTI AMC , HDFC AMC, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 41912 (42312) indices dipped slightly, NIfty IT is less than SMA 21 level, need clear direction and Q2 results will pave way for the clear direction.
Nifty - The Iran-Israel ImpactIran contributes nearly 3.3% of total crude oil production globally.
Nifty has corrected almost 5% due to the fresh conflict escalation between Iran and Israel.
Though I am certain that this isn't the end of the conflict, rather, Iran will have to face the wrath of Israeli counter, but unless any third party gets involved except the US, the correction in Nifty (specifically due to this conflict and upcoming war) seems to have completed.
Though, I am not bullish on the Indian markets in the short term, mainly due to overstretched valuations of MidCap companies, but I certainly believe that the ongoing correction would seize in the upcoming week. I am hopeful that Nifty will end the current calendar year somewhere in the range of 24750 and 25250 (exactly where the markets stand at the moment). So for me, it is now time to take advantage of this fall and pick fundamentally strong long-term opportunities.
This isn't a trading call and is solely my point of view. I have just tried to share my market expectations that I have formed basis my understanding of the economy in general and equity markets in particular.
I understand that this is a very bold call specially when the Index has corrected almost 5% in 5 trading sessions, and there is fair possibility of my expectation going wrong.
But, I also understand that having a point of view is better than going blank, and failing while trying is better than not trying at all.
Consult your financial advisor and do your own research before making any financial commitments.
Do not panic button till Mother and Father supports not broken.The parallel channel tops will always be difficult to conquer. Children staying abroad and in far away places coming to meet mother and father once is a while is always a sign of a healthy family. Nifty coming to meet the mother and sometimes the father on daily chart is always a healthy sign.
The reasons can be any:
1) SEBI change in rules.
2) Conflict between Israel and various other countries
3) Crude oil prices
In the recent Past the reasons were incidents like:
1) Ukraine war
2) US Fed rate cuts
3) Covid 19 Outbreak
Major Nifty support is near 25067 to 25040 zone as you can see in the daily chart Nifty is near mother line which is also coinciding with mid channel support and a peak support. This can be the probable turnaround zone. If this support is broken further supports will be at 24804, 24384. The zone between 23995 to 23612 is another turnaround zone as it can be the channel bottom support. 23223 is the final support of father line drawn on daily chart. Below this there can be actual panic in the market.
Resistances for Nifty are now at 25439, 25665, 25836 and 26037. Above 26037 bulls will be in super power mode again. Bottom fishing time in premium/High quality/A+ category has arrived. Churn your portfolio around. New themes will soon emerge. Hold on / do not panic / sell stocks where you are in loss / use this fall to churn your portfolio.
Strictly do not trade/invest without keeping Stop losses and Trailing stop losses. Stop losses protect your capital and trailing stop losses protect your profits. To know more about stop losses, trailing stop losses, Profit booking and investment in Equity in general or Mother, Father and small child theory read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. Which is available in Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version.
Disclaimer:
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Do not panic button till Mother and Father supports not broken.The parallel channel tops will always be difficult to conquer. Children staying abroad and in far away places coming to meet mother and father once is a while is always a sign of a healthy family. Nifty coming to meet the mother and sometimes the father on daily chart is always a healthy sign.
The reasons can be any:
1) SEBI change in rules.
2) Conflict between Israel and various other countries
3) Crude oil prices
In the recent Past the reasons were incidents like:
1) Ukraine war
2) US Fed rate cuts
3) Covid 19 Outbreak
Major Nifty support is near 26067 to 26040 zone as you can see in the daily chart Nifty is near mother line which is also coinciding with mid channel support and a peak support. This can be the probable turnaround zone. If this support is broken further supports will be at 24804, 24384. The zone between 23995 to 23612 is another turnaround zone as it can be the channel bottom support. 23223 is the final support of father line drawn on daily chart. Below this there can be actual panic in the market.
Resistances for Nifty are now at 25439, 25665, 25836 and 26037. Above 26037 bulls will be in super power mode again. Bottom fishing time in premium/High quality/A+ category has arrived. Churn your portfolio around. New themes will soon emerge. Hold on / do not panic / sell stocks where you are in loss / use this fall to churn your portfolio.
All around correction on the expected lines. After reaching a new pinnacle Nifty took a dip searching for substantial support. The Nifty which was overbought was looking for some consolidation. FIIs were mainly on the selling side. Sharp declines can correct RSI a lot like we witnessed today. The supports for Nifty now remain at 25794 (Important support level) which can allow Nifty to make a come back right from tomorrow. If not the next support levels will be at 25705, 25595. Below 25595 nifty becomes very weak and has only 200 EMA or father line as support which is at 25381. Bears take over the market below these levels. Resistances on the upper side for Nifty are at 25900 (Mother line resistance of 50 Hours EMA). Above that the next resistance will be 25991 and 26077. Above 26077 Bulls can come back to rescue above this level and take Nifty further to 26150 and above.
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 30-Sep-24 to 04-Oct-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 30-Sep-24 to 04-Oct-24
Nifty closed at 26179 (last week 25790 ) and touched low & high of 25839-26285 ( all time high)
Market touched new high last week , and broke the key resistance of 26000 provided last week decisively and also crossed another Mid Term Resistance 26260 settled down at 26179( As shown in chart, The level is the difference between the Aug High and Aug Low from Aug High)- If it crosses 26260 again decisively, Medium Term is UP. if it moves above decisively next target is 27000 in short term.
Nifty Bank 53834, touched the target of 54000 as proposed 2 months before ( 54400 all time high last week) and support at 49900.
Fed Rate Cut by 0.5% made the global market up and triggered increase in Indian Market.
FPI invested 4 Billion $ in Sep till date.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (76% and 93.59% respectively). MACD crossed the Signal and maintain uo. RSI and MACD shows market will go up further. Caution to be emphasized as Stochastics at overbought level. Q2 results awaited which will pave way for more clearer path in market.
Nifty 26179 Short term ( Short Term : Up)
Nifty short term resistance 26266 as shown in chart.
Support at 25800, 25217, 25000
Medium Term next target is 27000 if move up decisively above 26266.
Medium term Support 24650 (Trend line support and Fib Resistance), 24480 (Fib Support) and 24000.
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 28190 ( Fibonacci Resistance). Support at 22800
US started reducting fed rate as expected in Sep 2024, expected it shall continue in reduction of interest rate in next year. US President Election result scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. RBI in India expected to reduce rate from end of this year.
Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Mutual Funds SIP shall be invested as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period as the valuation is high.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as CAMS, UTI AMC , HDFC AMC, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 42312 (last week 42204) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and reached all time high last week(43632). Later Dipped to 41660 due to profit booking and again started moving up. Recovery of US stock market & awaiting FED rate cut expectation decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index last week. NIfty IT is less than SMA 21 level, need clear direction and Q2 results will pave way for the clear direction.
#Nifty50 outlook for upcoming week 30-4th Oct 2024#Nifty50 surged to a new all-time high of 26178, closing the week up nearly 400 points. The index oscillated between 26400 and 25200, as predicted. For the upcoming week, I anticipate a trading range of 26750 to 25800 . A breakout beyond these levels could trigger significant price movements. Fibonacci support lies at 25800; if breached, 25600 becomes a critical level to watch.
A puzzling question remains: Why are many stocks in investor portfolios underperforming despite the Nifty's record highs? Typically, stocks require catalysts or news to rally, which are currently scarce. If the Nifty reaches 27000, large-cap stocks could outperform mid-cap and small-cap equities. Niftybees or ETFs might also be attractive options to capitalize on the Nifty's upward momentum.
The S&P 500 also hit a new weekly high at 5738 and appears poised for further gains. Surpassing the 5767 high could propel the S&P 500 to 5821, 5899, or even the significant level of 6013. This positive momentum in the U.S. market could also benefit the Indian market.
Nifty Next Week: (Market Outlook)Nifty hit the channel top and reversed in the parallel channel drawn on hourly chart.Swift move towards large caps which are undervalued or valued fairly should also be an investor friendly approach. It is very difficult and challenging to find undervalued or even fairly valued stocks in current market situation. Thus it is imperative to keep your stop losses and trailing stop losses in proper place.This is information is not to instill panic but everyone should keep their stop losses and trailing stop losses tightly in place for protecting the capitals and profits. Sectoral churning and profit booking from mid and small cap and investment in Large caps is also happening. This might be the reason why some of us may find your portfolios performing poorly despite market making new highs every day.
Nifty Supports for the week remain at: 26148, 26037, 25866 (Strong support, mother line (50 hours EMA), Mid-channel support and trend line support, 25595 and 25345.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 26277, 26336 and finally 26437.
To know more about Parallel channel, Mid channel support and resistance, Channel bottom support and EMA vs Mother, Father and small child theory, read my book The Happy Candles Way To Wealth Creation, available on Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Nifty on a record breaking spree approaches another channel top.Nifty again had a breathless run today and closed at 26216 after making a new all time high of 26250. the scope of growing further looks limited but with lot of large caps picking up pace and rotation from mid cap and small cap stocks towards large caps is helping the Nifty move further. FIIs and DIIs are both on a buying again probably indicating a move towards large caps. Heroes of the day today were Maruti Suzuki, Grasim and Tata Motors along with Bajaj Twins, M&M and Shriram Finance. Large cap banks did not much much but are not relenting as well. The parallel Channel indicates the channel top near 26443 with resistances at 26250 and 26338. Supports for Nifty is near 26029. Again the zone between 25865 and 25812 will be the most significant support as this zone contains the mid channel support along with Mother line support. The rally can turn bearish (Looks less likely as of now but you never say never) below 25282. Shadow of the candles look neutral to positive as of now.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.