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Niftyoutlook

Medium Term Nifty Outlook. 24869 proving to be strong resistance for Nifty. If this range is crossed the next resistance will be near 24949 and previous high of 25078. The major support zone is between 24657 and 24738. Right now Nifty is sandwiched between this zone and major move can be seen only after we get a closing above or below these two levels. The top of the trend seems to be near the previous high of Nifty that is 25078. If and when we get a closing above 25078 (Weekly closing). The next target which is also a channel top for Nifty will be near 25411. If we get a closing below 24657 the next major supports will be near 24437, 24120 and finally 23893. Below 23893 there will be weakness and bears can take over the market. Shadow of the candle right not is slightly green in colour (positive).
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
How the FII-DII Tug of War Could Shape Nifty 50's Future Good Afternoon TV Family, Summary: The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, global equity markets could experience a shake-up. In this idea, we delve into how a U.S. rate cut might trigger foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to rethink their allocations and the crucial role domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail flows will play in stabilizing Nifty 50. Let's explore the dynamic between FII outflows and DII buying, and how this tug-of-war could impact the Indian equity market. Lets Deep Dive : 1. Jackson Hole Meeting and Rate Cuts: If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25-50 basis points, it would signal an accommodative stance aimed at supporting economic growth or preventing a slowdown. Lower interest rates generally boost equity markets because they reduce the cost of borrowing and make risk assets like stocks more attractive compared to bonds or cash. US Equities: A rate cut would likely be bullish for the US stock market. Lower rates improve corporate profitability, make borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, and reduce the yield on bonds, encouraging investors to shift to equities. This should lift major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. 2. Impact on Global Markets: Global Spillover: A strong rally in the US equity markets often leads to positive sentiment spilling over to global markets. Optimism in the US can create a "risk-on" environment where investors globally are more willing to take risks in equities and emerging markets. Currency Impact: A rate cut might weaken the US dollar, which could benefit emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee. A weaker dollar generally supports emerging markets by making their debt cheaper to service and boosting exports. 3. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) Impact: Capital Reallocation: A rate cut in the US could lead to a reallocation of capital by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). If US markets become more attractive due to lower rates and expectations of better returns, FIIs could redirect funds from emerging markets like India back to the US. Risk of FII Outflows: Historically, when the US markets become more attractive, FIIs tend to pull capital from riskier emerging markets to take advantage of the safer and more promising environment at home. If FIIs reduce their exposure to India, we could see short-term pressure on Indian equity markets. FIIs vs. DIIs: The Balancing Act FII Dominance: Historically, FIIs have had a significant impact on Indian equity markets due to their sheer scale. Large-scale selling by FIIs can cause downward pressure on the markets, and in periods of uncertainty or risk aversion, they often pull out capital quickly. DII Counterbalance: On the flip side, DIIs (including mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) have grown stronger in recent years. While they may not match the FIIs in volume, their growing influence means they can absorb some of the selling pressure. In fact, DIIs often act as stabilizers when FIIs sell aggressively. 4. DII Firepower and Their Role DIIs’ Buying Capacity: DIIs have been steadily increasing their presence in the market, supported by growing retail participation via mutual funds and SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) inflows. Monthly SIP inflows in India have consistently been hitting record levels (e.g., over ₹15,000 crores). This gives DIIs a significant pool of funds to deploy, which can offset some of the FII selling pressure. Insurance and Pension Funds: In addition to mutual funds, large domestic players like insurance companies (e.g., LIC) and pension funds have deep pockets and tend to be more long-term focused. They can step in to support the market during periods of FII outflows. 5. FII Selling vs. DII Buying: Historical Context In recent years, there have been several instances where FIIs have sold heavily, but DIIs have stepped in to absorb some of the selling pressure. For example, during periods of global uncertainty (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic or geopolitical tensions), DIIs have been active buyers when FIIs were selling. However, the degree of balance between FIIs and DIIs is critical. If FIIs engage in a prolonged or aggressive selling spree, it could overwhelm the DIIs' ability to absorb all the outflows. In such cases, the market could still see a downward correction, albeit potentially less severe due to DII intervention. 6. Retail Investor Participation Growing Retail Participation: While individual retail investors may not have the power to single-handedly stop a market decline, their cumulative impact through mutual funds and SIPs is growing significantly. Retail participation has become more pronounced in the Indian markets, with a steady flow of domestic savings being funneled into equities. SIP Flows: Monthly SIP inflows have created a steady and predictable stream of liquidity for the market. Even during periods of FII outflows, DIIs can rely on these inflows to buy equities and stabilize the market. While this might not entirely counterbalance FII selling, it provides consistent support and can cushion downside moves. 7. Role of Mutual Funds and SIPs Mutual Funds and SIPs: With SIP flows providing a reliable source of funds, DIIs can manage their buying strategies more effectively, especially during periods of volatility. This has been one of the reasons why the Indian markets have remained relatively resilient in the face of global shocks. SIP Inflows’ Resilience: SIPs are typically long-term, driven by retail investors who are less likely to pull out during short-term corrections. This means that mutual funds have a steady flow of capital to deploy, which can help support the market over time, even if FIIs sell off in the short term. 8. Indian Market Reaction: Short-Term Negative Impact: The Indian markets might see a negative reaction in the short term, particularly due to potential FII outflows and global investors reallocating capital to US equities(not a must but a possibility). However, this will depend on the scale of the US market rally and how much FII sentiment is swayed by the rate cut. Longer-Term Outlook: In the longer term, India remains a strong emerging market story with robust growth potential. So, while there might be short-term downside due to FII outflows, domestic factors like earnings growth, reforms, and economic resilience could offset the impact over time. 9. Potential Limits of DII Support Magnitude of FII Selling: If FIIs engage in heavy and sustained selling (e.g., billions of dollars in outflows), DIIs may not have the capacity to fully absorb the impact. In such cases, the market would likely see a correction, and DIIs would focus on selectively buying stocks where they see long-term value. Global and Domestic Factors: DIIs’ ability to support the market also depends on the broader domestic economy, liquidity conditions, and global sentiment. For instance, if global markets are in turmoil, even DIIs might become more cautious, limiting their ability to counteract FII outflows. 10.Other Considerations: Sectoral Impact: Some sectors in the Indian market, such as IT services, might benefit from a weaker US dollar and stronger US growth prospects, while rate-sensitive sectors (like financials) could face pressure from FII outflows. Central Bank Response: The RBI may also factor in the Fed’s decision when considering its own interest rate policy. If FIIs withdraw capital, the RBI might need to adjust its stance to support the rupee and maintain financial stability. 11. Sectoral Impact Different sectors of the Indian economy could experience varying effects based on these developments: IT Sector: Indian IT companies could benefit from a weaker dollar, as a strong US growth outlook would drive demand for IT services and outsourcing, positively impacting the sector's earnings. Financials: Rate-sensitive sectors like financials could face short-term pressure due to FII outflows, but DIIs and retail inflows could stabilize them in the medium to long term. Export-Oriented Sectors: Export-driven sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automobiles could see a boost from a stronger rupee and weaker dollar, enhancing their competitiveness globally. Summary & Conclusion: A. Short-Term Risk: A Fed rate cut could lead to short-term selling pressure on Indian markets due to FII outflows, as investors chase better returns in the US. B. Global Risk-On Sentiment: However, if global sentiment improves significantly, emerging markets might benefit indirectly from stronger global growth prospects. C. Domestic Strength: India’s strong domestic fundamentals should eventually provide support, even if there is an initial dip due to global factors. D. DIIs can provide significant support to the market and act as a counterbalance to FII selling, especially due to consistent retail inflows via mutual funds and SIPs. However, the extent to which DIIs can offset FII outflows depends on the magnitude of the FII selling. In a severe selling spree, even strong DII buying might not fully prevent a market downturn, though it could cushion the impact. E. Retail investors, through mutual funds and SIPs, have become a crucial source of liquidity, helping DIIs stabilize the market, but the balance between FII outflows and DII inflows is key to determining market direction. Thank you for reading, Now let's just brush up on technical's : 1. If the index moves up which is only possible above 24900 zone then we have : 25460 to 25560 which is immediate upside levels, above that it might move further upside as per chart around 29K. 2. If breaks down and starts declining then : 24350 to 24400 zone should be a immediate support, if breaks below then 24180,23630,23180 worst case will be 22730. Let's see how this all works out. Once again Thank you for taking your time to read. If I am wrong any where please do leave a comment to correct me. PS: The above idea and thoughts are purely educational and do not consist of any financial advise or investment. Please do consult your financial advisor for any investment.
NSE:NIFTY
by Tron029
2
Nifty at mid channel support trying to cool down RSI. Nifty is currently resting on the mid channel support and is trying to cool down overheated RSI. This consolidation is necessary before it can march further. Earlier in the day RSI had reached over heated zone of 75+. Currently the RSI has cooled down to 67.89. Further consolidation will be good for the market before it's next leap towards 25K+ again. The new channel top seems to be near 25.41K. In the medium to long run the Nifty has potential to reach anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K within this year or within this financial year. Supports for Nifty currently are near: 24738, 24652, 24601 and 24409. 23893 will be a critical support closing below which the Nifty rally can turn bearish. Resistances For Nifty on the upper side are at: 24869, 24949, 25078 and finally Channel top resistance near 25411. Closing above 25411 will open our gates for new target which can be anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Expiry Analysis and Outlook(29-08-24)In the last week (14th August Expiry), Nifty traded within a narrow range, largely hovering around the CPR (Central Pivot Range) calculated for the expiry. This week, we saw Nifty open above the Pivot, signaling a bullish reversal. The index then tested the Pivot before surging to R4, forming a strong green expiry candle. This upward move was anticipated following a week of range-bound activity. Looking ahead to next week, if history is any guide, we might expect a range-bound movement after such a strong surge. However, it's wise to remain on the long side of the market while observing how the market behaves tomorrow. I'll provide updates as the situation evolves.
NSE:NIFTY1!
by tanayroy
Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024Nifty Prediction for Tomorrow: Levels for 23 August, 2024 Sideways today! But, all CE buying side targets have been met and a small position of the CE monthly trade is still open with open target. Trailing Stoploss : 24,687 Resistance: NONE, all CE side targets met If the price crosses and closes below the Risological Trendline, I will be looking at buying PE side position. Till then, Iam gonna enjoy the CE side profit. Good luck
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ProfitsNinja
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 22/08/2024🔔 Nifty Update for Today: 📈 Gap-Up Opening Expected: Expected Opening Level: Near 24850 Key Bullish Level: 24850 Potential Upside Target: 25000 Nifty is expected to open with a gap up near the 24850 level today. If the index sustains above this level after opening, a strong upside rally could push it towards the 25000 mark during the session. 📉 Watch for Downside Risks: Critical Reversal Level: 24800 Important Support Level: 24650 However, if Nifty starts trading below 24800, downside movement may be possible. The 24650 level will serve as an important support in today’s session.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
Gap generated on 5th August Finally Filled today. Gap generated due to gap down opening of 5th August is finally filled today. It is not necessary that all gaps either on the way up or on the way down are filled every time. As there are different type of gaps and different timings of gaps / intervals etc there are many factors which create loop holes in the gap theory. We will discuss that some other time. Gap Theory is a subject in itself. The supports for Nifty now are at 24517, 24324 and finally 24088. Resistances for Nifty in the short to medium term are at 24736, 24857, 24950 and 25080.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
#nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 12-16th Aug 2024The Nifty index concluded the week at 24,367, shedding 350 points from the previous close. The index touched a high of 24,419 and a low of 23,893. A global market downturn, ignited by the unwinding of yen-funded positions, sent shockwaves through financial markets worldwide. Looking ahead, the Nifty is projected to oscillate between 25,150-23,800. A breach below the crucial 23,800 support could trigger a deeper correction towards 23,500. On the upside, 24,700 is a key resistance level to watch, representing a potential gap fill. Short-term chart patterns hint at a bullish reversal, supported by the positive outlook on weekly and monthly timeframes. Also remember next week is truncated due to 15th Aug holiday so it will be a 4 day week for Indian markets. The S&P 500 found support near the DEMA 200. To sustain its upward momentum, the index must hold above 5,400, opening the door to potential targets at 5,433, 5,500, and 5,566. Conversely, a dip below 5,233 could reignite the downtrend, with support levels at 5,180, 5,088 (DEMA 200), and 5,016 exerting downward pressure on global markets. Prepare for continued market volatility.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. But we are still not out of the woods as there is a resistance zone near high of the today that is 24337 and 24382. (This is the resistance created by the gap down opening on 5th August. The starting and ending point of Such massive gaps always acts as a resistance zone while going up. The best way to cross this resistance will be a gap up opening. 24483 is another point which was the starting of this gap which will also act as a resistance on the way up. Once that is crossed we can look forward to reaching the next resistance levels of 24584 and 24714. Supports on the lower side for Nifty are at 24183, 24075 and 23978 (Mother Line 50 day's EMA). Below this level only two supports remaining will be 23912 and 23673. We can again be in this unlikely zone as of now only if there is some major bad news overnight otherwise shadow of the candles is looking positive. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Index View [Expiry: 08-08-2024]After a notable expiry week characterized by significant activity, the current Nifty expiry week commenced under less favorable conditions. This analysis explores the Nifty Index from both the expiry candle and options technical perspective to provide a comprehensive view of the market dynamics. Expiry Candle Analysis: This week's expiry candle started at the pivot point but closed below it, suggesting an initial bearish momentum. If the downtrend continue, the next support could be expected around 24,575, which aligns with S1 of the expiry pivot. Further decline might test the S2 at 24,415 - a pivotal level as it also corresponds to last week's expiry low. In terms of resistance, Pivot, TC (Top Central), and BC (Bottom Central) could serve as key barriers in the short term. The analysis leverages Fibonacci pivot calculations based on the expiry OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data. Historically, a relatively quiet week often follows a highly active expiry week. Given this pattern, the current week might lean towards a neutral or slightly negative close, echoing the subdued sentiment post-high volatility periods. Options Analysis: Instead of focusing on volume or open interest, this review emphasizes a technical assessment of the options chain. Technical ratings added to the monthly expiry options reveal that: Call Options: Moving Averages are indicating a strong sell signal, with Oscillators showing a mix of neutral and sell signals, suggesting bearish expectations. Put Options: Moving Averages are mostly neutral while Oscillators are leaning towards buy signals, indicating some expectation of upward price movements yet underscored by caution. Near Term Options Outlook(Current Expiry): Call Side: Signals are overwhelmingly negative, pointing towards bearish market expectations. Put Side: Presents mixed signals, which could imply uncertainty or a potential for slight recovery, but the overall sentiment remains cautiously pessimistic. Conclusion: Both the expiry candle and technical indicators from the options chain suggest a market leaning towards a neutral to negative closure for the current expiry period. Traders should consider integrating additional data and analyses to corroborate these findings and refine their market strategies.
NSE:NIFTY
by tanayroy
5
#Nifty50 analysis for upcoming week 5th-9th Aug 2024#Nifty50 stumbled this week, closing at 24717, a 110-point drop from the previous week. While it danced between 25078 and 24686, staying true to its predicted 25400-24300 range, underlying daily chart weakness is undeniable. Yet, the weekly and monthly perspectives remain bullish. Expect Nifty to continue its tightrope walk between 25000 and 24400 next week. A breakout on either side could ignite significant volatility. A potential support level of 24400 might be a sweet spot for new long positions. However, the looming RBI policy announcement on August 8th could trigger another selling wave. Until then, cautious optimism and controlled positions are key. Meanwhile, the S&P500 experienced a 5% correction from its 5566 peak, finding support at the WEMA21 level of 5300. If this support holds, a fresh upward rally towards 5400, 5433, 5500, or even 5566 could be on the cards, potentially buoying Indian markets. Let me know your views in the comments section. thanks for reading
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
As mentioned yesterday Profit Booking was seen post new High. As we had discussed in yesterday's message after making a new high of 25078 there was strong profit booking in many stocks specially Mid, Small and Micro caps. Market breadth turned negative with 784 advances Vs 1588 declines. This is a natural phenomenon and we cant surely say how long the profit booking can go on. Nifty actually did well to close above 25K at 25010. 25037 was mentioned as a strong resistnace. Nifty momentarily went above it but could not sustain the levels. Nifty made a low of 24956 and bounced back. We had again indicated that 24957 was a good support. (yesterday's Message). Same level is the key as Nifty can again try to confirm it's bottom for consolidation. In case 24957 is it's temporary bottom Nifty can rise further and again take an aim at closing above previous high of 25078. Supports for Nifty remain at 24957, 24887 and the zone between 24833 and 24806(Mother line). If we get a closing below 24806, 24773 or 24661 might come in play. Resistances for Nifty remain at 25037, 25078 and 25116. The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Good Positive move by Nifty today trying to clear deck for 25K.Good Positive move by Nifty today trying to clear deck for 25K. Nifty right now is in no mood to stop but traders and investors should be very clear with the stop losses and Trailing stop losses as we have seen that when a new Peak or significant Psychological target is achieved there can be a bout of profit booking. Nifty may again dive downwards to find and confirm it's significant support. Investors should keep this in mind. Supports For Nifty right now seem to be near: 24942, 24887, 24833, 24773, 24741 (Very important Mother Line Support of 50 hour's EMA), below Mother line we have mid channel support at 24661. Below 24661 bears can awaken from coma and have potential drag the nifty till 24496 or even 24375. The final support zone for Nifty is between Father line (200 Hour's EMA) at 24282 and Channel bottom near 24250. Below 24250 can be pure bear territory. Resistances for Nifty remain at: Zone near previous high between 24985 to 24999 crossing which the next resistance will be near 25037. If we get a closing above 25037 Nifty can reach 25116. Major trend top as well as channel top seems to be between 25174 to 25200 range. Trade and invest with caution. Stoplosses are our friends which protect our capital. Trailing stop losses are our best friends which protect our Profits. To know more about Mother Father line and their significance and to learn Techno Funda analysis we recommend you read the book The Happy Candles Way. Which is available on Amazon on paperback version. Kindle version of the same book is also available on Amazon Kindle. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
24773 is a critical support to watch going forward. 24773 is a critical support to watch going forward. If that support is not broken tomorrow or later this week we can see upside once again with resistances at 24871, 24957, 24999 (today's high) and finally 25037. Supports at the lower side are at as mentioned 24773, 24661, 24606 (50 hour's EMA (Mother Line) merging with Mid channel support. Making this support as another major critical support after 24773. Below 24606 bears will get back to business and can further drag the Nifty to 24496 or even 24375. The rally can turn around and loose steam completely if we get a closing below the final support zone of 24218 and 24186(200 hour's EMA father line). Channel bottom is also round about that area.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY Pre - Budget Surge : Caution Ahead...!Hello Traders, I hope you are all thriving both in your trading endeavors and in life. Today, I bring you an exciting opportunity with a new analysis of NIFTY that's poised for a significant move. Our in-depth analysis reveals that... NSE:NIFTY As anticipated and previously mentioned, the past week ended on a negative note (pre-Budget). This week holds the potential for new highs. However, caution is advised, as this will likely be the final move in the sequence that began on October 23, 2023. It is prudent to brace for an impending correction. Here are the technical details: I. Resistance I: 24,854.80 ~ 24,910 (conj. Extended trend line from March 20, 2023) II. Resistance II: 25,120 (Extended trend line from June 1, 2022) III. Resistance III: 25,460 (Extended trend line from January 24,2024). ***Please note that these values are not actual but indicative levels of support and resistance. A Gann ideology is that , the move from October 26, 2023 is also facing a time resistance of 270 days (90*3) which is an important number not to consider it lightly. Furthermore, for the move from March 20, 2023 it is 490 days (360+90+45 or 135) which is also an additional reason factored in to be more cautious! Following this, the market is expected to take a breather, with profit booking potentially dragging the markets to deeper levels before any new uptrend is initiated (The correction in monthly scale can be anticipated). Further details will be discussed as the market evolves. Strategy: Being bullish at this juncture seems prudent, only till R II (for conservative / Defensive) & RIII (for Pro-active / Enterprising). Disclaimer: Before we conclude, I want to remind everyone that the insights shared here are based on my own analysis. It's crucial that you perform your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The financial markets are dynamic, and it's important to ensure that your strategies align with your personal financial goals and risk tolerance. =========================================================== Dear Traders, If you appreciate my work, please don’t forget to like and follow me. I would also love to hear your thoughts on this idea in the comments section and will be delighted to respond to each one. Thank you for reading the article. HAPPY TRADING
NSE:NIFTYLong
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty crosses strong resistance, Medium term target 25K+ open.Nifty crosses strong resistance of 25720 for the first time. This opens the door for medium term target 25K+. Although there are few more important resistances to cross before this happens. The important resistances now are at 24837, 24887, 24937 and 25024. Top of the channel now seems to be at 25243. The support for nifty if it decides to cool the RSI seems to be at 24720, 24593 and 24508 (50 Hours EMA, Mother Line) (To Know about Mother Father and Small Child story - Read the Book Happy Candles Way to wealth creation). Post 24508 the only major support is 24462. Below this level (24462) bears can awaken.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
NIFTY - Correction ahead of BudgetAt this juncture, nifty is expected to correct to the mentioned levels & to continue its rally towards 25,000 ~ 25,400 levels before any monthly correction can happen. The correction will be progressing through various barriers of supports(FIBONACCI & T.lines). SI - 24,162 SII - 24,010 SIII - 23,881 ~ 23,855 levels (V.imp support coincidence of .5% & mid T.line) The strategy is to take short today after testing the previous High @ 24,401 (the move might start today or 2 days later, Tentative) Trade Accordingly
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan