Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
Nifty closed at 22519 (22513) and touched low & high of 22435 & 22782
Nifty touched new high last week and reduced 1 % due to global cues on last day.
Global tension caused mild drop in last working day of market. Depends the situation market will react next week. Expecting a mild fall till 22000 and may raise afterwards.
RSI and stochastics levels was marginally down last week(57% & 71% Respectively).
Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on market and election outcome.
Nifty IT 35018(35250) - Nifty IT marginally decreased last three weeks. To continue hold and buy on dips. Nifty IT touched 20 days before new high (38550) and started falling. Major support at 34918 /34000. Can add more at 33288 with Target 40000.
Nifty bank 48565 (48535) - As expected Nifty Bank increased in the last month gaining near to 6.5%. Nifty touched the near time target provided at 48618 & touched new high of 49063.
Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips.
Nifty 22519- Short & medium term (Neutral)
Nifty moved up in the last week touched new high 22782. As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 (Fibonacci extended resistance ( target) iwhich is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000.
Short term support 22000/21900
Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue.
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions.
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Earlier last 2-3 months, purchasing/holding Nifty IT at lower levels proved effective as the Nifty IT index as it moved up by 20%. Nifty IT posted flat or negative results in Q3. Nifty IT touched new high on 16-Feb-24 (38477). Target 40000.
Similarly despite nifty bank results for Q3 were good as expected, Nifty Bank index was down by 10% last three-Four weeks. Nifty Bank Index was suggested to buy two weeks before. Nifty Bank in nearing the target provided (48600). Nifty Bank Stocks / Bank Index can be purchased whenever it falls down. HDFC bank is now in buyable range, can be further bought if it further dips for Medium to Long Term. Continue to buy on dips.
As expected, stocks other than Banks have posted mixed results. Market can any time expected to turn volatile till elections in 2024 (Apr-May). Company Earning per share (EPS) are near to maximum level, expected policy / budgetary push to move up further in 2024. Individual stock pick will be the key in 2024.
