NIFTY Market Insights: Anticipating significant shiftsDear Traders,
I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns.
Technical details:
I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22)
II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24)
III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance)
Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance.
The wave patterns depicted in the diagram, signal completion of the trend.
Additional observations:
Time series Forecasting:
Top - Top
- Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270)
= 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3)
= 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270)
= 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360)
Bottom – Top
- Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180)
= 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90)
= 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle)
= 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180)
Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust.
Historical Repetition:
The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month.
Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds.
A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios:
The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios.
Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons.
Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality.
One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction.
Fed and Markets:
Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises.
If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term.
Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus.
IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!!
Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC)
Strategy:
1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended.
2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders.
Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested.
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response.
Fellow Traders,
Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article,
Your readership is greatly appreciated.
Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
Niftypredictions
NIFTY on the cusp for potential correction!Dear Traders,
I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns.
Technical details:
I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22)
II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24)
III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance)
*** Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance.
The wave patterns depicted in the diagram
signal the completion of the trend.
imgur.com
Additional observations:
Time series Forecasting:
Top - Top
- Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270)
= 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3)
= 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270)
= 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360)
Bottom – Top
- Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180)
= 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90)
= 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle)
= 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180)
Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust.
Historical Repetition:
The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month.
Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds.
A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios:
The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios.
Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons.
Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality.
One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction.
Fed and Markets:
Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises.
If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term.
Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus.
IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!!
Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC)
Strategy :
1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended.
2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders.
Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested.
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response.
Fellow Traders,
Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article,
Your readership is greatly appreciated.
Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
Nifty anlaysis for tomorrow 28 july 2024 (Nifty Intraday Setup)Today After breaking previous day high nifty consolidated from 12 pm to 2 pm and failed to sustain at higher level.
And Nifty closed with a selling swing today.
So for tomorrow if with opening market created a selling swing then a bounce will be expected and day high break or price near high will be expected. Look for W pattern on 5 min.
(SELLING SHOULD NOT BE VERY SHARP AND BIG).
And
If Price move upside and take rejection below todays high & created a lower High (M Pattern on 5 mins.) then intraday low break will be expected.
NIFTY - Correction ahead of BudgetAt this juncture, nifty is expected to correct to the mentioned levels & to continue its rally towards 25,000 ~ 25,400 levels before any monthly correction can happen. The correction will be progressing through various barriers of supports(FIBONACCI & T.lines).
SI - 24,162
SII - 24,010
SIII - 23,881 ~ 23,855 levels (V.imp support coincidence of .5% & mid T.line)
The strategy is to take short today after testing the previous High @ 24,401 (the move might start today or 2 days later, Tentative)
Trade Accordingly
Technical Analysis: NIFTY 50's Recent Shifts and Future ProspectHello, TradingView community! Today, we're diving into a detailed technical analysis of the NSE:NIFTY index, which has shown some interesting movements lately. We'll break down the technical signals, look at the potential implications, and discuss what to watch out for in the coming days.
🔍 Overview of Recent Trends
The NIFTY 50 has been following a well-defined upward trend channel over the past several months, making consistent gains each time it hit the upper boundary. However, recent patterns suggest a change in dynamics, which we need to scrutinize closely.
🔁 Current Technical Setup
Most notably, the NIFTY 50 recently deviated from its usual pattern by not reaching the upper boundary of the trend channel before reversing its direction towards the lower boundary. This could be an early sign of weakening bullish momentum.
📉 Significance of the Double Top Pattern
The formation of a potential Double top, a classic bearish reversal indicator, adds weight to concerns about a bearish shift. While this pattern is not yet confirmed—since we haven't seen a definitive breakdown below the neckline—it's a development that warrants attention.
📊 Intersection with the 100-day SMA
The recent drop of -1.5% in the NIFTY 50 brought it down to the lower boundary of the trend channel, which coincidentally aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This SMA has historically served as a strong support level, often triggering rebounds.
🔄 Potential Outcomes
Bounce Back: If the 100-day SMA and the lower boundary of the trend channel hold up, there's potential for the NIFTY 50 to rebound towards the mid or upper boundary of the channel.
Bearish Reversal: A decisive close below the 100-day SMA & Neckline of Double Top could indicate a more significant Bearish Trend or the start of a consolidation phase.
🌐 Broader Market Context
Quarterly Earnings: The index is feeling the pressure from non-impressive Q4 results for 2024. Lackluster corporate earnings can dampen investor sentiment and lead to a reevaluation of stock valuations.
Volatility Index Rise: The NSE:INDIAVIX , which measures market volatility, is on the rise. This indicates increased uncertainty among investors, as they price in a higher potential for market swings.
FII Activity: There has been significant selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), contributing to downward pressure on the index. FII flows are crucial as they represent substantial investment volumes and can influence market direction.
US Federal Reserve's Stance: The hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve, signaling potential interest rate hikes, is also a critical factor. Higher US interest rates can lead to capital outflows from emerging markets like India as investors seek higher returns in US assets.
These points illustrate how external factors are intricately linked with the movements of the NIFTY 50 index and should be considered when analyzing its future direction.
📈 Trading Strategy Recommendations
For those actively monitoring the NIFTY 50, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the 100-day SMA and the lower trend line of uptrend channel. These areas serve as critical junctures that could determine the market's short-term direction.
"In the world of Market, it's not about how much you know, but how well you understand what you know and how you apply it in uncertain times."
To conclude, while the NIFTY 50 presents an intriguing technical setup, traders should proceed with caution given the current uncertainties and the index's recent behavior.
This analysis is intended to enhance understanding and encourage informed decision-making. Keep watching these indicators and adapt your strategies accordingly to navigate through these potentially choppy waters.
Lastly, thank you for your support, your likes, Follows & comments. Feel free to ask if you have any questions.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -17/05/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 22420 level and then possible upside rally up to 22540 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 22370 level then the downside target can go up to the 22250 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -21/03/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 21870 level and then possible upside rally up to 21990 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 21830 level then the downside target can go up to the 21710 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -15/03/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 22170 level and then possible upside rally up to 22290 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 22130 level then the downside target can go up to the 22010 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -01/03/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 22060 level and then possible upside rally up to 22180 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 22020 level then the downside target can go up to the 21900 level.
Nifty - Reflection of India's Sanity - Ready for New HighsFeb 12 to 16 - Another wonderful and Powerful week for the Indian Market where our market deceived the Global markets and Stood Strong and Tall while Global Markets were Bleeding.
It was very evident that Nifty and its cousins (Smallcap, Midcap, Energy, Auto, Pharma....) are super strong and are heading for newer highs
Here is the Technical View for the Week of 19th Feb:
Gift Nifty: Started the week with a Gap Up & Green Candle. The Last of the last Resistance before making new highs is 22,205. once broken Gift Nifty will Trade above the Earth's Atmosphere :)
Nifty 50: Nifty following a similar structure is all set to break out of its last resistance at 22,125 to head towards uncharted Territory
Given the upcoming Elections, the Ruling Party can't afford to lose their image with a crash in the market. Over the past 3 Quarters, the Indian Retail community have grown so strong that FII selling is no longer a major issue. Despite continuous Daily Net Selling by FIIs since Aug 2023, Indian Market marched forward like a Battalion of Determined Soldiers to make newer Highs.
We are slowly becoming Immune to FIIs selling, but FII buying will actually be complimentary to our market to take us to new highs. This the sign of Indian Becoming Truly Atmanirbhar....
Disclaimer:
Stocks-n-Trends is NOT registered with SEBI. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions.
If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments
-Team Stocks-n-Trends
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -14/02/2024Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 21700 level and then possible downside rally up to 21580 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 21760 level then the upside target can go up to the 21880 level.also possible reversal upside 21580 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -20/01/2024Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 21500 level and then possible upside rally up to 21650 level in today's session. in case nifty trades below 21770 level then the downside target can go up to the 21620 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 30/10/2023Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 19080 level and then possible upside rally up to 19200 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19030 level then the downside target can go up to the 18910 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 20/10/2023Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 19600 level and then possible downside rally up to 19480 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 19630 level then the upside target can go up to the 19750 level.
12 OCT 2023 NIFTY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELSHello Guys,
Good Morning everyone,
According to the data today market is going to open a gap up
After A gap up opening if nifty sustains Above 19800 and takes Support from 19800 then open target for T1-19840, T2-19860,T3-19900
If the nifty gap up opening sustains Below 19800 and takes resistance below 19800 then the open Targets for T1-19760, T2-19700,T3-19680
Major Levels 19800,19840,19760
If the market stands in this area of 19840 to 19780, then it is possible that even today the market will remain in the range.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 27/09/2023Nifty will be FLAT opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading above 19700 level and then possible upside rally up to 19820 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19650 level then the downside target can go up to the 19530 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels -13/09/2023Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 20000 level and then possible upside rally up to 20120 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19980 level then the downside target can go up to the 19860 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 04/09/2023Nifty will be gap up opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 19450 level and then possible upside rally up to 19570 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19410 level then the downside target can go up to the 19290 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 22/08/2023Nifty will be FLAT opening in today's session. After opening nifty sustain above 19400 level and then possible upside rally up to 19520 in today's session. in case nifty trades below 19350 level then the downside target can go up to the 19230 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 16/08/2023Nifty will be gap down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading below 19400 level and then possible dowside rally up to 19280 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 19430 level then the upside target can go up to the 19550 level.
NIFTY ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY 14TH AUGUST 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSENIFTY ANALYSIS FOR MONDAY 14TH AUGUST 2023-FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE
This video is for educational purpose and my personal view . We are NOT SEBI registered Advisor, we only give the level on our practical trading experience. Kindly take the trade according to your risk and reward position and consulting your advisor. It is advisable to take the advice of SEBI registered advisor.
@vijayanjum
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#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 08/08/2023Nifty will be gap Down opening in today's session. After opening nifty start trading Below 19580 level and then possible downside rally up to 19460 in today's session. in case nifty trades above 19600 level then the upside target can go up to the 19720 level.