Major weakness in Nifty with across the board selling.Nifty today looked very weak as it was not able to sustain many important support levels. Relative strength index of Nifty is also looking that it might fall further. The candle looks like an Olympic diver which has jumped from the podium. You can never say never but shadow of the candle as of now looks very negative and dark red in colour.
Resistance for Nifty will be at 24914, 25076 and 25333. Support for Nifty seem to be at 24702, 24483 (Major Mother Line 50 days EMA support). If this support is broken Bears can have a field day or a field week with no stopping. In such a scenario they can drag Nifty further down to 24242, 24016 or even 23673. The worst case scenario as of now looks like 23174 and 22759. 22759 will be Father line support.
Nifty last took father line support only on 4th june 2024 when it looked as if NDA will not be able to form a Government and there were deep cuts. So it looks improbable that Nifty will fall till father line but you never say never as US and other global markets are in panic mode.
Long term investors can be / should be ready with some liquidity as they might get a good chance for bottom fishing. Long term and ultra long term outlook for Indian markets still looks very positive.
Niftyshortterm
Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 26-Aug-24 to 30-Aug-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term view 26-Aug-24 to 30-Aug-24
Nifty closed at 24823 ( Last week 24413 ) and touched low & high of 24524-24866
As suggested last week, market bounced back and moved up and near to the initial line target of 24900 as shown in the chart.
Post Indian Elections, reduction of interest rate by RBI is expected on a staggered manner till it reaches 5% ( in span of 2-3 years ) in line with US fed rate reduction expected in Sep 2024. US President Election scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (60% and 90% respectively). MACD level crossed cross the signal last week. Expecting market to move up in short term.
Market have high potential to touch psychological 25000 Mark/ 25200 ( Fib Resistance)
Nifty 24823 Short term (Short term up)
Nifty short term resistance 25075 ( New Peak) and 25224.
Support around 23850 ( trend line support and recent low).
Medium Term 25224( Fib Resistance) as mentioned above, if it crosses then next target is 25542 ( Fib Resistance) which is % of difference between Mar 23 low and Sep 23 high low from Sep23 high shown as vertical line. Caution to be emphasized once market reached medium term target.
Medium term Support - 22700 to 22800
Caution was emphasized on Nifty for the past 2 month as nifty PE is in record high level with high valuation and very less potential to grow further.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% ( i.e Nifty 22800 level) which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Long Term (1-3 years) Nifty have a target of 27000 ( Fibonacci Resistance). If market close above 25580 decisively. Support at 21750 ( Trend line support)/ 20800 ( Fib & Trend Line Support) 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500
Nifty bank 50933 (Last week 50494) - Index have target of 54000 in medium term and support at 49900
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Newly added stocks to buy are PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Tanla & persistent Sys can add these stocks to portfolio. There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 41089 (40878) indices dipped 37848 in last month, bounced back and reached 41830 last week. Recovery of US stock market and awaiting FED rate cute decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index.
Nifty Shortterm ViewNifty Shortterm View on Daily TF
Looks like Trendline testing is pending on Downside
and if we invert the chart structure , then also i feel taking risk on downside is having better R:R
Even if market breaks Present ATH, this Trendlines are still valid as long as they didnt get validated.
Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review -25-Sep-23 to 29-Sep-23Nifty Short, Medium and Long Term review - 25-Sep-23 to 29-Sep-23
Nifty closed at 19674(20192)and touched low & high of 19674 and 20195.
Caution was provided on Overvaluation and to sell upto 30% Stocks with High valuation/ Profit and non performing Mutual Funds. Personally i could sell 15% of my stocks & Mutual Funds.
RSI and Stochastic level down from 76 to 46% & 96 to 30% respectively.
Stochastic & RSI- Still there is chance for to Move down/ Bottom out.
Nifty couldnt hold the short term Support provided at 19800 and moved down to 19674.
Nifty Bank fell more than Nifty last 2 weeks.
Nifty Bank have attractive valuation.
Buy on dip call on SBI & ICICI Bank , Axis Bank given on 13-Aug-23, Can Continue to buy for long term. Can add BOB, canara bank on dips. To watch for bottoming out of Kotak Bank, can add for long term.
Nifty- Short Term (Neutral Bearish)
If it broke below Ist Support at 19600 ( Fib Resistance), then
Strong Support at 19300-19600 ( Fib Resitance at 19320/19467)
Also there is a support at 19224 ( Previous Low)
Resistance at 19840/19990
Nifty Medium Term & long Term -
As market in overbought zone there will be a correction.
Resistance at 20500
Further to review the Q2 results. To review once Nifty reaches target.
Strong Resistance at 18800
Short and Medium Term Outlook for NIFTY on Daily chart. In the short Nifty looks little indecisive. I the medium term Nifty looks solid.
Couple of Dojis after cup and Handle Break Out for NIFTY indicates some tussle between Bulls and Bears. Where Bulls have managed to or are trying to free Nifty from a two year consolidation phase where Nifty was mostly between 16000 and 18000. At the same time Bears are trying that Nifty again falls into the Abyss and stays in the consolidation zone.
One 3 to 5% dip will come in the next couple of months before or just after Nifty reaches near or closes above All time high levels.
Supports for Nifty: 18584, 18508, 18372, 18225 and finally 18011.
Resistances for Nifty: 18661, 18736, 18784 and finally 18887.