Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term View- 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24
Nifty closed at 22419 (22147) and touched low & high of 22199 & 22623
Nifty was up from the support level and was trading inside the range (22000-22800) provided last week.
RSI and stochastics levels was up from last week(53.75 %(41%) & 64% (<20%) Respectively). Moved up from oversold zone.
All Companies other than IT and Bank are expected to post result in the coming weeks. Hence market may try to take a cue from the bottom line performance (Profits). Banks & Finance companies posted Good results, IT posted muted growth, Maruti posted good results, Reliance and Ultratech posted muted growth. Other Major companies results are awaited in coming weeks.
Nifty bank 48201 (47556) - Nifty bank was up marginally inline with nifty last week. Many bank stocks are buyable zone. As insisted for last 3 months Banks & Finanace Stocks are really good and will give good results, as expected Q4 results are good especially for Axis Bank , Indusind bank ,ICICI Bank definitely can be added as portfolio stock. Kotak Bank ( after the fall due to RBI regulation can be added slowly whenever there is a dip), Bankof Maharasthra ( Can be added) ,Canara bank can be accumulated slowly & more after the Q4 result.
Following Finance Stocks can be added as it posted good results are Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Fin Serv, Manappuram Finance, Other stocks like Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Ceat & JK tyres can add these stocks to portfolio. Please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term)
Medium term support is at 44598 if breaks major support at 43650 ( Fib Support). To continue buy on dips initial target 50000.
Refer to detailed comments in the bottom on Market, Expected election outcome & Nifty IT.
Nifty 22419- Short & medium term (Neutral)
As insisted in the last month, Market need to decisively close above 22800 to move up further. As expected last week for come back rally market went up.As mentioned in the past month, nifty almost reached the near term target 22819 two weeks before (Fibonacci extended resistance target) and started falling ( 22819 Target- which is the % of difference between Oct21 Peak -Jun22 Low from Oct 21 peak/23000 and again trying to cross it.
Short term support 22230 (MA 50)/22000/21800
Medium term Support - 21721 (Mar Low),21554 (Fib Support),21300, 20877 Fib Support as shown in the chart.
Long Term
Market expected range bound between 23300 ( Trend Line Resistance till May 2024) to 20225 / 20000 ( Fib Resistance),19500 expected in 2024.
Q3 results are average except bank & Nbfc stocks, further up move will have target of 23150 ( Trend Line), 23500 ( Fib Resistance). Market Awaiting for the Q4 results to take a cue.
Comments :
Positive Lok Sabha Election result expectation, Global trend helped sustaining the market above 22000.
Recent Electoral bonds, CAA implementation news couldnt make the market down as market is confident that current govt will win more than halfway mark, continue govt post election without any additional support of other parties so that govt can be confident enough to take decisions. Hence whenever there is a dip in the market, continue to buy on small quanties till post election survey results are revealed on Jun1- Jun 3rd and Jun 4th Election results.
Hence market is in good buy whenever there is a dip. Post Elections, only way Market will start grow higher by reduction of interest rate by RBI on a staggered manner till it reaches 5%. US fed rate reduction also expected from Jun/ Sep 2024. Market may correct if any global news till 19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range.
Nifty IT broke the Major support at 34918 /34000 two weeks before and went upto 32919. Nifty IT Stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro gave muted results in Q4 2024. Can be added for short rally as it fell sharply, however strictly for long term and also in portions slowly on each fall ( say 5-10% of total investment in IT stocks). Whenever there is such dips and new lows ( in the last 1 year) We can add slowly. It need to break above 38000 needed to further move up. Future of technology stocks are in high pressure due to AI as it is reflecting in US and Indian technology stocks. Especially Indian IT stocks is in a non decisive path and downtrend.
