Proper Breakout and Retest done.Nifty Today broke out from the shackles of the trendline resistance. further Nifty alos re-tested the resistance and gave a positive closing making the shadow of candle for tomorrow positive. 21955 is the final resistance remaining before Nifty cracks 22K again. 21794 and 21870 were the supports that were tested today. Once 21954 is crossed further resistances will be near 22013 and 22062. Supports on the lower side remain at 21870, 21795, 21776 (50 Hours EMA), 21663 and 21643. Nifty might start positive but little bit of Profit booking might come towards the later parts of the day.
Niftysupports
Major up move in Nifty, a good closing above major resistance.Today we saw a major fightback by bulls and closing above 2 major resistances which were 50 and 200 Hours EMA after a super negative start(Gap down due to unfavorable US Inflation data). The closing however is just below a resistance of 21872. A positive closing again tomorrow will give more power to the bulls. Shadow of the candles today is positive.
Nifty Resistance Levels: 21872, 21922, 21970 and 22013.
Nifty Support levels: 21787, 21739, 21633 and finally 21625(Major 200 hours EMA and Mid-channel Support).
Once again decent recovery effort by Nifty but stopped by 50 EMANifty made a decent recovery effort on the back of short covering in some of the oversold Nifty stocks but again 50 Hours EMA Mother line proved to be too powerful resistance and stopped the dash of Nifty which was aiming to go further. Also there is a trend line created resistance which might hinder the growth of Nifty Further. It looks like Nifty might squeeze further in the triangle created between the two trend lines. Till we get a closing above 21857 I do not think we are in a safe zone. Only after we get a closing above 21857 bulls can think of making a come back.
Nifty Supports: 21663, 21620, 21549 and 21459. Below 21459 levels of 21351 and 21285 are the only supports for Nifty before bears take full control.
Nifty Resistances: 21749, 21796, 21836 and 21857. Above 21857 21922 and 21970 can be the resistances before Nifty can gain 22K levels again.
Sell off continues in Nifty. Strong Sell off continued in Nifty with major sectors like PSU and Private Banks, Public Sector companies, Small and Mid-Cap seeing no respite in mass sell off. In one way the sell off will cool down the RSI. Lot of these companies are seeing a cuts like hot knife cuts through butter slab. Amongst the fallen the companies which have given good results or seemingly decent results will be the first to bounce back. Saving grace was today Nifty giving a close just above 200 Hours EMA and just above or at par with mid-channel support.
Nifty Resistances from here will be at 21698, 21758 to 21796 (Strong Resistance Zone), followed by another important resistance at 21851. Above 21851 closing Bulls will be back to calling shots.
Nifty Supports from here on will be at 21613 (Very important support just round the corner, 200 Hours EMA), 21549 and 21459. A closing below 21459 will make the bears more powerful and will drive Nifty towards the support levels of 21351 and 21285. Bottom of the current channel is near 21100 below which market will be in total control of bears.
If we can get a proper closing above 21613 tomorrow that is if this level is not broken we can see a fight back of bears tomorrow or later in the week.
Nifty Takes support at Mid-Channel support. (Nifty Next Week).In the trade on Friday Nifty took support at the Mid-Channel support which was also a trend line support which was near 21629. The 200 hours EMA support was also nearby at 21610. So Nifty made a turn around from this support zone. The Nifty stopped and closed the week just below the 50 hours EMA resistance which is at 21795. This will be the immediate resistance for Nifty as it opens on Monday. The other important resistances for Nifty to conquer in the next week will be at 21849, 21922, 21970 and 22013. If 22013 is conquered the next resistances will be near 22062 and 22126. Support zone for Nifty will be between 21648 to 21610. If we get a closing below 21610 Nifty will be in trouble as bears will wake up near that level. In such a scenario the next support will be either at 21459 or 21285 only.
Nifty now rests delicately near important support zone. Nifty found rejection again from the same resistance zone described in Yesterday's idea linked to this message. Nifty Now rests near important support zone consisting of a trendline support, mid channel support and 200 hours EMA support the father line. All these are in the range between 21669 and 21600. Closing below 21600 has potential to awake the bears and take Nifty towards 21459, 21285 or even 21130 levels. Resistances for Nifty on the upper side will be 21810 to 21849 (Tough Resistance zone consisting of 50 hours EMA and other very strong multiple resistance). In case this zone is crossed the next resistance will be near 21970. The closing on Friday will be very important and may decide trend for the coming week or the next fortnight.
Again the same resistance zone pushes Nifty back.As described yesterday again the same resistance zone between 21964 and 22063 traps Nifty and pushes it back. Trendline is giving Nifty support and not allowing to fall drastically. The same resistance trapping the candles again and again does not help the rally and makes it weak. Thus the shadow of Nifty is negative. Resistance and Supports for Nifty are as under:
Nifty Supports: 21870, 21819, 21652 and finally 21587. (Below 21587 Nifty becomes very weak and bears come in full force).
Nifty Resistances: 21964, 22063 and finally 22127. (Above 22127 the door for our target of 22357 opens).
Nifty Confirms 50 EMA (Mother Line) Support and rises ahead.Nifty today confirmed the 50 EMA Mother line support and raced ahead only to be stopped by resistance zone near 21950-21964. Crossing and closing above 21964 will unleash further upside and can take Nifty towards 22063 or 22127. Peak of the rally based on the current trend lines can be near 22357. Supports for Nifty are now at 21819, 21779 and finally 21561. Closing below 21561 will give a chance to the bears to wake up from slumber.
weakness persisted in Nifty after a good start. Weakness was seen in Nifty after a strong start perhaps due to situation in China and developments in the Middle East as tensions are escalating to a certain extent. Purely on Technicals there was a shooting star daily candle formed on Friday and today on the hourly chart a miniature sort of Head and Shoulder pattern is formed. These to formations indicate weakness setting in Nifty and the trend can continue for rest of the week or even few weeks to come. For weakness to persist however Nifty has to break Two important supports which are at 21740 and 21536. These Two levels are potential reversal zones.If 21536 is broken further supports will be near 21449 and 21290 or 21136. Resistances on the upper side for Nifty will be at 21815 and 21964. We are at a critical juncture near trend line as well as 50 EMA support 21740. Tomorrow is an important day closing below 21740 will strongly suggest further weakness.
Runaway Train of Nifty Was halted by ATH Resistance. Runaway Train of Nifty Was halted by ATH (All Time High) Resistance. From the Early morning Friday Nifty looked poised to make a new high and did so without much stutter. Once it reached All Time high there was heavy profit booking seen in the index. 21800 level however provided a much needed support and Nifty closed well above that range. Support levels for Nifty from here will be at 21805, 21752 followed by strong Mother and Father line support of 50 and 200 hours EMA at 21697 and 21511. Trend changes to negative if we get a closing below 21136. Resistances for Nifty on the upper side are at 21907, 21964, 22064 and 22127. Top of the current trend triangle seems to be near 22351 level.
Nifty is Squeezing in a tight Triangle. Nifty is squeezing in a tight triangle and within this week or the next will give way on either side with a big breakout or a big break down.
Today Nifty respected the trendline resistance near 21832 and also respected the Mother line 50 EMA Support near 21626 where it came in the touching distance near 21658 and reversed to end the day at 21697 just below the psychological level of 21700. Same Set of supports and resistances will come into play tomorrow with very little room left for Nifty to give a break out on either side.
Nifty Supports: 21626 and 21482.
Nifty Resistances: 21806 to 21852 (Strong Resistance zone), and 21966.
Again Nifty facing important Trendline resistance. 2024 first month has seen volatile, erratic, sudden tide to ebb and ebb to tide behaviour of Nifty which is at it's unpredictable best. The zone starting from 21741 to 21839 is having many resistances both small and big in addition to the trendline resistance. if Nifty is able to close above 21850 further journey towards 21966 and 22124+ is possible. Supports for Nifty are available at 21593 and 21464. If we get a closing below 21464 the Nifty may fall further to 21354, 21245 or 21136 levels. Usually budget days are marked with high volatility. Adding fuel to fire is the US FED meeting tonight. Do not take many / any high risk decisions tomorrow.
Trendline resistance 21800 works again to pull Nifty downTrendline resistance 21800 works again to pull Nifty down. This only shows that the strength of rally decreasing with extreme increase in volatility. There was a news of situation escalating in Middle East and US striving to take some action against the mess created by some disruptive forces in the Red sea. With this news there was selling and profit booking seen specially from the FIIs and Retail investors however DII remain net buyers and gave support to the market near 21500. How much support they can provide going deeper into the week is the question.
Nifty Supports will be at: 21500, 21448 (Major Support 200 hours EMA), 21258 and finally 21152. Below 21152 bears will start licking their fingers.
Nifty Resistances are ate: 21562 (Major resistance 50 hours EMA), 21660, 21723 (Major trendline resistance) and 21800-21820 range.
Nifty Trapped between good support and strong resistance. Nifty again finds itself trapped between strong resistance zone which present between 22415 and 22488. Above 22488 Nifty can fly towards 21522, 21660 or even 21743 within this week. But crossing the 50 and 200 hours EMA at 22415 and 22448 (Mother and Father line will not be easy). On the lower side there is a strong support zone between 21258 to 21152. Below 21152 closing bears can take control of the market and thrash it further down. Nifty is interestingly poised. Nifty Shadow is positive but there was a news of Three US Marines killed in a Houthi attack on US Navy vessel. The possibility of US retaliation and escalating tension with Iran is a clear and present possibility so investors have to keep a keen eye on that development.
Very good Daily candle showing the fightback of NiftyWe saw a very good Daily candle showing the fightback of Nifty a closing above important résistance of 21421 indicates that we might be heading towards 21500+ tomorrow if global factors keep the things bright. In this case the resistance that Nifty will face will be at 21582(Major resistance), followed by 21684 and 21772. On the lower side the supports for Nifty will be at 21412, 21137 and 21080 (Major support 50 days EMA and Mid-Channel resistance). Things are poised interestingly with shadow the candle looking slightly positive for the start tomorrow.
Strong Resistance ensures steep fall in Nifty. Strong Resistance zone of 21607 to 21857 sends Nifty in a downward spiral and makes it topple towards 50 days EMA(Mother Line). This has lead to frantic fall in RSI of Nifty. On 15th January the Rsi of Nifty was 73.88 today it is 44.88. Still little bit of cool down in RSI can not be ruled out. The immediate support for Nifty is near 21218. This is a weak support which may not hold but you never exactly know. The next support if 21218 is broken will be near 21065. 21065 in not only the Mother Line (50 days EMA) but also the mid channel support on the daily chart making it a very strong support. If 50 EMA does not hold the bears will tighten the grip on the stock market and may try their best to bring the Nifty to 20794. Holding 21065 or 20794 will be very important and the levels to watch out for. If these do not sustain we may see 20297, 19849 or even 19738.
Mid-Channel Resistance again stops Nifty and pushes it down50 hours EMA (Mother line)(Those who know my Mother/Father/Small Child story can understand it very well) was a very important resistance to be crossed and held today but Nifty could not hold on to it after crossing it once. In addition to the 50 EMA there was also Mid-Channel resistance. which could not be crossed. Additionally there is a trend line resistnace, Nifty has to cross this for further growth. There was lack of volume and next week is a 3 day week so lot of traders/investors did not carry long positions. The support and resistance zones remain at:
Support Zone : 21539, 21430(Very important 200 hours EMA) support (Father Line) and finally 21285 (Channel bottom support). Bears can tighten their grip below this point.
Resistance Zones : 21600, 21674 (50 Hours EMA)(Mother Line), 21756 (Mid Channel resistance) and finally 21847. Above 21847 Bulls will strengthen their grip.
Nifty trapped between strong support and strong resistanceRight now Nifty seems to be trapped between strong support and strong resistance. The support zone is 21415 to 21581. Resistance zone is 21670 to 21847. Nifty needs little bit of consolidation in the range. Results from various companies will drive the nifty forward in either direction. The interim budget is also around the corner that can also be a guiding light for Nifty. Wild swings in either direction in addition to Geo-Political events can also turn the fate of Nifty and things can turn cloudy in a session or two. My advice for now will be stick to large caps and selective mid and small caps with ethical management and strong fundamentals and avoid companies with low durability, high debt, high pledging and questionable ethics. Which should be the case anyway but more so with Macro and Micro global situations and events which are in progress and around the corner.
Nifty trying to form bottom after taking channel bottom supportNifty trying to form a bottom after taking channel bottom support. Nity touched the bottom of our hourly channel and trying to consolidate in the zone. Major support for Nifty from here will be 21405 (200 Hours EMA) (Father Line) and Channel bottom 21285. If 21285 is broken Nifty may fall further till 21089 or even 20967. On the way up major resistances that Nifty will face now are 21544, 21650 and 21715 (Major Resistance 50 Hours EMA). Also note that Mid channel channel resistance is also near 21740 region. So 21715 to 21740 will be major resistance on the way up. Nifty might try to stage a recovery tomorrow but let us see if the levels hold. Weekly closing is important with Geo-Political tensions rising between Iran and Pakistan. As well as Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Market becomes a ruthless teacher today. Market today was in ferocious ruthless form today. Overheated RSI sometimes stays overheated for few days or weeks and sometimes like today cools off in a day. Yesterday the RSI was above 70 and today it is below 30 on the hourly chart. 21550 is a good support zone from where we can see recovery but it is less likely possible point of reversal. The possible point of reversal can be 21450 and 21397. If 21397 is broken the next supports levels will be at 2133, 21188 or 20999. On the upper side the resistances will be at 21687, 21754, 21796 and 21847. It looks like the start might be negative but later in the afternoon or Friday Nifty can try to stage a recovery.
Was it profit booking or Channel Top resistance? or both? Nifty is facing a channel top resistance and trying to cool down/climb down from the overbought zone. The Major resistance for Nifty going ahead are at 22056 and very strong Channel top resistance near 22124. Supports for Nifty on the lower side as it tries to cool down it's RSI will be at 21973, 21917, 21840 (Mother Line, Good support 50 Hours EMA), 21758 and 21687 (Mid Channel Support). If Mid-Channel support is broken the next supports will be near 21591, 21455 and finally 21377 (Father line, Major support 200 Hour EMA). Nifty looks as if it will start negatively tomorrow in the afternoon it can try and stage a recovery.
New Record But How Far can The Rally Stretch? Blockbuster rally makes it a festive Makar Sankranti, Uttarayan, Bihu, Lohri and Pongal for investors but how far can this rally stretch is the question?
I will try to answer the question based on Technical analysis. On the onset let me tell you that predicting exact top and exact bottom in a short term is a very difficult task but The candle today has opened the door that leads us towards 22326 which is a Fibonacci resistance level. Fibonacci resistances are really little difficult to cross and it will require full force of bulls to do so. If 22326 is crossed the next resistance can be near 22769 and 23119. Immediate resistance for Nifty will be at 22115. Supports on the lower side for Nifty are at 21952, 21716 (strong support), 21474 and finally 20928. Closing below 20928 the Nifty can fall to the levels of 19624.
Trendline resistance stopping Nifty again and again. Trendline resistance stopping Nifty again and again. Tomorrow is critical for Nifty as it is squeezing between the trendline and 50 Hours EMA. 50 Hours EMA currently at 21616 is supporting Nifty and Trendline resistance is stopping Nifty since January 24 as you can see in the chart. Very important for Nifty to cross and close above it tomorrow or in the next few days for it to grow further. If Nifty is not able to cross the same in next few trading sessions weakness can engulf it. Critical supports for Nifty are at 21616, 21544 and finally 21457. The movement in Nifty giant Reliance since last 2 days is helping Nifty close in Green. Tomorrow if Reliance continues its move, TCS with decent result moves upwards Nifty can break the trendline resistance and grow ahead. On the other hand HDFC is showing little stiffness due to become little exhausted, Infosys has given a below par result and these 2 are dragging the Nifty down along with some other players. Resistance for Nifty remains at 21680, 21718, 21768 and 21830. With supports and resistances staying strong some thing's got to give. Shadow of the candle seems positive again but things can change quickly with more important quarterly results coming and Nifty squeezing between supports and resistance. Big move on either side is also a clear and present possibility.