Fibonacci resistance acts up but can it stop Nifty?With lot of large caps picking up pace and delivering this week, Nifty has broke a lot of shackles and had a free run specially on Friday. Can it gallop further is the question.
Nifty certainly can as large caps are acting up to the task. Companies like M&M, Kotak Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Twins and even Maruti Suzuki and lot of other large caps are supporting it. On Friday PSUs, Mid-cap, Small-caps and other sectors such as defence which had become laggards are also trying to turn positive but word of caution here is that important fibonacci resistance level of 25852 has come into play now. The same is also the trend top. This means 25852 will be difficult to cross. If at all that is crossed next Fibonacci resistance will be at 25951. Support levels for Nifty will be at 25684, 25615, 25551 and 25494 levels.
Trade cautiously with proper stop losses and trailing stop losses in place specially in case of Mid and Small cap stocks.
Niftysupports
After making a new high Nifty finds temporary bottom. There was an immense bout of profit booking specially in the mid and small cap stocks decimation happened in PSU stocks. Many of these stocks are near important support levels now. Many seem to have taken support today. Nifty itself took support today near 25376. Looks like this was a strong support below which is another important mother line support of 25322. To know more about Mother, Father and Small Child theory read my book available on Amazon in Kindle and paperback version. Below 25322 the important support levels will be 25278, 25134 and 25008. However as support of 25376 has been taken for now things look little rosy to start the day with resistance levels will be 25485, 25533, 25611 and channel top now is at 25712.
Flag and Pole Breakout is not taking of as on date. Since Flag and pole breakout there are chances that even though 50 bps rate cut has been announced by US FED there are chances of Nifty trying to retest some supports. Today Nifty tested 50 hours EMA Mother line. But there is a chance that it may test the support again. If Mother line 25282 does not support again like today there is a chance of Nifty testing further supports which are near 25203, 25135 or even 25027. Resistances on the upper side will be near 25407, 25485, 25533 and 25607. As of now shadow of the candle is negative or red in colour. But if 50 EMA gives support the things can turn positive again. Expect some volatility in the coming days.
Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious Flag formation in Nifty indicates some strength but be cautious as there might be chances of profit booking at higher levels. The Fibonacci levels drawn based on previous peaks indicate the next resistance between 25449 and 25493. If 25493 is crossed and we get a closing above it there is a possibility of a rally upto 25600 or 25698 levels. This will be a resistance which will be very tough to conquer for now. The support for nifty in case the Flag and pole formation break out fails will be at 25333 and 25270. Mother line support of 50 hours EMA will be at 25193 which is also the mid channel support. Making it a strong dual support.
Things look rosy but keep an eye on 2 major global events. Nifty was in consolidation mode on Friday after making a new high on thursday. It seems to have found a temporary support at 25292. If this support is broken there are further supports at 25133, 24910, 24753 and finally Mother line support of 24602. If 24602 is broken bear will be seen in an active mode. however shadow of the candle as of now seems to be neutral to positive. The resistances for Nifty on the upper side are at 25433 and 25537. Channel top seems to be near 25653 and trend top or the medium term target seems to be at 26335. However Nifty will take some time, correction and consolidation before we reach there in all probability. All eyes from across the globe will be on US Fed action on 18th September. If there is no fed rate cut or only 25bps rate cut announced. Bears can attack the market from all sides, so keep a track of this most important global event next week. This is a make or break global event. Also we should be watchful of events around Russia Vs Ukraine as there was a news that US can give a green signal to long range precision made in US missiles to be used by Ukraine. If this happens it can escalate the matter into a massive global event with negative impact on global markets. Although everything seems rosy as of now. Keep a keen eye on these to major events next week or in the coming days. To guard your profit keep trailing stop losses. To protect your capital use stop loss.
Fresh Bullish Breakout in Nifty after consolidation. Nifty consolidated for a while tested new bottom near 24753 Nifty has today taken down all the resistances and made a new all time high of 25433. Nifty could not hold on to 25.4K+ levels today so the immediate resistance for Nifty will be today's high that is 25433. The next resistance is near 24537. Channel top seems to be near 25653. The door are now open for 26K+ long term target. As of now the long term target as per the trend line seems to be near 26355 with supports at 25293, 24910 and recent bottom formed near 24753. Below this level Mother line support will be near 24571 below which the trend can change bearish.
Mid-Channel Resistance stopped Nifty growth todayAfter remaining positive and buoyant the full day Mid-channel resistance came to force and stopped Nifty from further growth today, dragging it down from day's high of 25130. The closing is good and above Mother line (50 days EMA).
To know more about Mother, father and small child theory and Happy Candles numbers that we assign to stocks read my book The Happy Candles way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
The supports and resistances for Nifty now are as under:
Supports for Nifty remain at: 24034 (Mother Line support), 25005, 24832, 24807 and finally 24527.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 25130, 25192, 25273 and 25333.
Shadow of the candle right now is neutral to positive.
Strong comeback by Nifty indicating temporary bottom formation.Nifty today came back strongly after taking support from Father line of 200 EMA and trendline. The support of Father line will be confirmed if we get a positive and strong closing tomorrow. The supports as of now for Nifty remain at 24790 and 24753 (Today's low and trend line support). If by chance FED will not announce a big rate cut, Nifty may again go support searching. If 24753 is broken the next support will be only at channel bottom near 24527. Shadow of the candles as of now remains positive and resistances for the Nifty is in the zone between 25005 and 25033 (Mother line 50 Hour's EMA). If we get a closing above 25033 the next resistances for Nifty will be at 25192, 25273 and 25333.
See how Father line support saved Nifty today. To know about Father, Mother and the small child theory you can read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation. The book is available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
Major weakness in Nifty with across the board selling.Nifty today looked very weak as it was not able to sustain many important support levels. Relative strength index of Nifty is also looking that it might fall further. The candle looks like an Olympic diver which has jumped from the podium. You can never say never but shadow of the candle as of now looks very negative and dark red in colour.
Resistance for Nifty will be at 24914, 25076 and 25333. Support for Nifty seem to be at 24702, 24483 (Major Mother Line 50 days EMA support). If this support is broken Bears can have a field day or a field week with no stopping. In such a scenario they can drag Nifty further down to 24242, 24016 or even 23673. The worst case scenario as of now looks like 23174 and 22759. 22759 will be Father line support.
Nifty last took father line support only on 4th june 2024 when it looked as if NDA will not be able to form a Government and there were deep cuts. So it looks improbable that Nifty will fall till father line but you never say never as US and other global markets are in panic mode.
Long term investors can be / should be ready with some liquidity as they might get a good chance for bottom fishing. Long term and ultra long term outlook for Indian markets still looks very positive.
Nifty delicately placed near Mother line & important trendline.Nifty which closed at 25145 is delicately placed just above mother line 50 EMA and an important trend line near 25143. Another important support will be today's low that is 25127. Below this level there can be further weakness which can take Nifty to 25083, 25005 and 24875. If major support of 24875 is broken the final support will be near 24776. If 24776 is broken Bears can take over the market. Resistances on the upper side are at 25173, 25208, 25234, 25269. Above 25269 Bulls can take control of the market at take the market to 25304 or even 25337. Right now shadow of the candle is still little negative.
Multiple trendlines converging and diverging consolidating NiftyThere are multiple global and local factors playing together line the multiple trendlines shown in the graph converging and diverging. These forces are not allowing Nifty to fall much and recover if it falls. At the same time they are not allowing Nifty to fly away towards 25.5K and above. The support levels for Nifty are at 25133 (Mother Line Support), 25083, 25005 and 24875 (Bottom of the current channel). Resistances for Nifty will be at 25207, 25251, 25304 and finally 25337.
Closing below trendline today shows some weakness in the rallyAlthough the closing on Nifty today was flat, as you can see from the chart closing was below a trendline which shows weakness. This weakness can lead to little more consolidation or can send Nifty searching for a substantial support. Resistance on the upper side seem to be at 25304 and 25337. Supports for Nifty are at 25241, 25197 below this level the major support for Nifty will be 25122 (Major support, Mother line, 50 EMA). If by chance 25122 is broken only 2 major supports will be at 25081 and 25005. Shadow of the candle as of now looks negative as of now.
Attempts of Nifty to break free not successfulNifty has attempted multiple times to break free and run wild but it has not succeeded. After making a new high there is consistent bout of profit booking seen. Over a few days now overall market breadth is not on the positive side. This phenomenon is natural when we are making new tops almost every day. Resistances for Nifty at this juncture are at 25330 and 25375. Supports for Nifty remain at 25242, 25193 (Strong support of the trendline) below this level major support will be near 25081 which is a combination of Mid channel support and Mother line support making it a very strong support. If 25081 is broken by any change 24993 will be the only major support remaining before the Nifty falls to Father line support or 24677.
To know the importance of Mother and Father line support and to know about the Mother, Father and the Small child theory of stock market (formulated by me), you need to read my book The Happy Candles Way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback and Kindle version.
Solid closing above important Fibonacci level of ATH. Nifty has given a solid closing above previous ATH and important Fibonacci level showing growing momentum. A new All Time High was made today at 25192.90 for Nifty which closed strongly at 25151.95. Now there is a strong support zone for Nifty between 24998 and 24933. 24933 happens to be 50 EMA (Mother's line) as well as mid channel support. This resistance will be tough to conquer for Bears. In case there is closing in an unlikely event below 24933 the next support will be at 24716. On the upper side the next resistances will be near 24193 (weak resistance of ATH). 25294 and finally 25411. 25411 is an important Fibonacci resistance which will be tough to conquer. In case we get a closing above 25411 next month or so the doors for 25840 in the medium to long run will open.
words of Wisdom:
All The boats go up in a tide so go for fundamentally strong stock which have good thematic future rather than momentum traps. Pick Fundamentally strong stocks which are giving a technical breakout.
To know more about stock selection read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon.
Nifty not closing above 25078 is not a good sign.Nifty not able to close above 25078 after making a high of 25129 is not a good sign. It showed a kind of weakness in the rally which can send Nifty downwards searching for the support. Supports for Nifty currently are near 24960 and 24857. Resistances on the upper side are now between the zone of 25078 and 25129. Once we get a closing above 25129 the door going towards 25276 or even 25411 can open. Right now the shadow of the candle is looking slightly red in colour that is negative.
Medium Term Nifty Outlook. 24869 proving to be strong resistance for Nifty. If this range is crossed the next resistance will be near 24949 and previous high of 25078. The major support zone is between 24657 and 24738. Right now Nifty is sandwiched between this zone and major move can be seen only after we get a closing above or below these two levels. The top of the trend seems to be near the previous high of Nifty that is 25078. If and when we get a closing above 25078 (Weekly closing). The next target which is also a channel top for Nifty will be near 25411. If we get a closing below 24657 the next major supports will be near 24437, 24120 and finally 23893. Below 23893 there will be weakness and bears can take over the market. Shadow of the candle right not is slightly green in colour (positive).
Nifty at mid channel support trying to cool down RSI. Nifty is currently resting on the mid channel support and is trying to cool down overheated RSI. This consolidation is necessary before it can march further. Earlier in the day RSI had reached over heated zone of 75+. Currently the RSI has cooled down to 67.89. Further consolidation will be good for the market before it's next leap towards 25K+ again. The new channel top seems to be near 25.41K. In the medium to long run the Nifty has potential to reach anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K within this year or within this financial year.
Supports for Nifty currently are near: 24738, 24652, 24601 and 24409. 23893 will be a critical support closing below which the Nifty rally can turn bearish.
Resistances For Nifty on the upper side are at: 24869, 24949, 25078 and finally Channel top resistance near 25411. Closing above 25411 will open our gates for new target which can be anywhere between 25.8K to 26.32K.
Combination of Fibonacci and trend lines and Parallel Channel. We will try to look at Nifty with the combination of Fibonacci, Parallel Channel and Trend lines and few other parameters to get the outlook for short to medium term on Nifty. Combination of various parameters mentioned above indicate that Door For Nifty reaching 26K+ within this year might have already opened. Various resistances on the way will be at 24783, 24874 followed by strong resistance of the previous high of 25078. Once we get a weekly or a monthly closing above 25078 the next resistances will be at 25410, 25839 and finally 26321 (Within this year or within this financial year). Supports for Nifty will be at 24643, 24517, 24324 and finally 24115. Below 24115 the final support for Nifty will be at 23893. Below this level the bull rally will be over and bears can take control of the market.
Gap generated on 5th August Finally Filled today. Gap generated due to gap down opening of 5th August is finally filled today. It is not necessary that all gaps either on the way up or on the way down are filled every time. As there are different type of gaps and different timings of gaps / intervals etc there are many factors which create loop holes in the gap theory. We will discuss that some other time. Gap Theory is a subject in itself. The supports for Nifty now are at 24517, 24324 and finally 24088. Resistances for Nifty in the short to medium term are at 24736, 24857, 24950 and 25080.
Mother line yet again supports and zone 24340 to 24382 resists.Mother line yet again comes to rescue of Nifty after the zone between 24340 and 24382 stops the growth of Nifty yet again. Once this zone is crossed only then Bulls can breath easily. Trend line resistance has also come into effect with absolutely no room for Nifty to go. So there should be a breakout in Nifty in either direction tomorrow. Shadows of the candles are green and positive due to the mother line support at 23983. So hopefully the breakout should be on the positive side. Resistance levels 24340, 24382, 24584 and 24714. The supports on the lower side are 24075, 23983 and 23673.
Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. Good bounce back by Nifty after Mother Line confirms support. But we are still not out of the woods as there is a resistance zone near high of the today that is 24337 and 24382. (This is the resistance created by the gap down opening on 5th August.
The starting and ending point of Such massive gaps always acts as a resistance zone while going up. The best way to cross this resistance will be a gap up opening. 24483 is another point which was the starting of this gap which will also act as a resistance on the way up.
Once that is crossed we can look forward to reaching the next resistance levels of 24584 and 24714. Supports on the lower side for Nifty are at 24183, 24075 and 23978 (Mother Line 50 day's EMA). Below this level only two supports remaining will be 23912 and 23673. We can again be in this unlikely zone as of now only if there is some major bad news overnight otherwise shadow of the candles is looking positive.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Mother line again came to rescue Nifty but can it hold?Mother line or 50 days EMA again comes to rescue of Nifty today. There was a huge selling pressure when the Nifty reached day's high that is 24382. Market has closed at 23992 and the 50 days EMA is at 23965. As of now 50 days EMA is respected but the mood seems to be sell on rise so the support is becoming weaker. If 50 days EMA or Mother line is broken on closing during the reminder of the week. There can be increased pressure on Bulls as Bears will try to explore further supports.
Supports for Nifty as of now seem to be at 23965 (Important Mother line support 50 day's EMA), 23673 and 23362. The zone between 22788 and 22259 is very important as of now. 22259 is 200 day's EMA or father line support, 22641 is the channel bottom support and 22788 is an important support of bottom of the big candle formed on 7th June. Resistance for Nifty remain at zone between 22214 and today's high of 22384.
If you want to know more about Mother father and small child story and how 50 and 200 day's EMA play the role of mother and father you need to read the book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation written by me and available on Amazon in Kindle and Paperback version.
This will be a big resistance to cross as above it is gap formed by gap down opening of 5th August. If this gap is crossed the next resistance will be at 24714. Shadow of the candles is red still. RSI 40 and Mother line saved the day today let us see if these levels can hold. If these levels are held upside is possible.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Mother Line comes to rescue for the Nifty today but can it hold?Mother Line or the 50 days EMA comes to rescue for the Nifty today but can it hold? It looks little difficult due to the global Bear onslaught. In such situations we know from the Father, Mother and the small Child story that mostly Father line of 200 days EMA can provide proper support. However before we reach there and not necessarily we reach there as there are some important supports for Nifty. The other supports for Nifty from where it can potentially make a turnaround seem to be at: 23963 (Mother Line provides support again / Support confirmation), 23673 is the mid channel support, 22788 to 22641 is also a good support zone. Below 22641 we have Father line support at 22242. Final support for Nifty is 21879. Resistances on the upper side are now at 24214, 24342 and 24714. Shadow of the candles are still dark red.
To know more about the father, mother and small child story read my book The Happy Candles Way to wealth creation available on Amazon in Paperback and E-book version.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.