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Riding the Correction: Unlocking NIFTY’s Next Chapter!Dear Traders, I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical Analysis Overview: There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring. Scenario I: The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here: The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe. Potential support levels include S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels, S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and S – III: 23,683 levels. *These values are not actual but just levels The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses. Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios. --------------- Scenario II: The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here: The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend. Potential support levels include, S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels, S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and S – III: 23,450 levels. --------------- Scenario III: The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend. The pictorial representation can be seen here: Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability. --------------- Other Influential Factors: Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality. Important Dates to Remember: Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports). --------------- Final Verdict: While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable. --------------- Strategy: Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds) . Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
NIFTY Trade Setup for Tuesday (03-Dec-2024)NSE:NIFTY Post Market Analysis by Srinivas Vemula NIFTY Weekly Outlook Economic Events : USA Jobless Claims Data ( November 30) India RBI Policy Repo Rate (06-Dec-2024) Institutional Bias - Bearish ( NIFTY FUTURES) Institutional Framework - Price Reversal Institutional Reference Data Points - Premium Arrays Institutional Price Delivery - ERL(BSL) to IRL( SSL) ERL - External Range Liquidity IRL - Internal Range Liquidity BSL - Buy Side Liquidity SSL - Sell Side Liquidity Premium Arrays Bearish Order block (H4) Buy Side Liquidity (W1/H4) Bearish FVG (H4) Discount Arrays: Bullish Breaker (H4) Bullish Mitigation (M15)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by chartology369
The Nifty spot intraday forecast for December 02, 2024Market Outlook for Nifty Spot on December 02, 2024 Morning Movement: Likely to see an upward move in the morning hours. A potential drop of around 300 points is anticipated later. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: Strong resistance at 24,330. If this level is broken, Nifty spot could rise to 24,385, provided there is no gap opening on either side. Support: On the downside, support levels are at 23,947 and 23,831. Overall Sentiment: The Nifty is expected to close on a bearish note. Disclaimer: These views are for educational purposes only. Please use your own technical analysis for entry and exit decisions. Always trade with a stop-loss to manage risks effectively.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Mastersinnifty
NIFTY : Analysis and Levels for 29-Nov-2024 On the previous trading day, Nifty exhibited a significant shift in momentum. A Change of Character (ChoCH) was observed, indicating a possible transition between bullish and bearish phases. The index traded near the golden retracement zones, showing both buyer and seller activity. The yellow trend represents a sideways market, green signals a bullish trend, and red indicates bearish sentiment. After a consolidation, NIFTY has shown a significant trending move on last trading session, so most probably nifty can trade sideways or in a range on Friday, but based on the chart, I have prepared trading plans for three possible opening scenarios: Gap Up, Flat, and Gap Down openings. Gap Up Opening (+100 points or more above ₹23,957) Resistance Focus (₹24,112-₹24,250): If Nifty opens above ₹24,057, it will directly test the golden retracement zone for sellers. Watch for bearish patterns, such as shooting stars or evening stars, in this area. If selling pressure emerges, initiate a short position. Action Plan: Entry: Short below ₹24,200 after confirmation of rejection. Target: ₹23,957 (the current close) and ₹23,807 (demand zone). Stop Loss: Above ₹24,300 to manage risk. Breakout Potential (₹24,250+): If Nifty breaks above ₹24,250 with strong volumes, it may head toward the Resistance Zone (₹24,544-₹24,656). Consider a long trade upon breakout confirmation. Action Plan: Entry: Long above ₹24,250 after a 15-minute candle close. Target: ₹24,544 and ₹24,656. Stop Loss: Below ₹24,100 to safeguard against false breakouts. Flat Opening (Near ₹23,957) Golden Retracement (₹24,112): If the market consolidates around ₹23,957, wait for a decisive move. The immediate focus will be the golden retracement zone at ₹24,112. Action Plan: Entry: Long above ₹24,112 if the price breaks this level with volume. Target: ₹24,250 and ₹24,544. Stop Loss: Below ₹23,900 to minimize risk. Demand Zone (₹23,807): If Nifty fails to sustain above ₹23,957, it could test the Golden Retracement Zone for Buyers (₹23,807-₹23,497). Look for bullish reversal patterns in this zone for long entry. Action Plan: Entry: Long near ₹23,807 if bullish candles like hammers form. Target: ₹23,957 and ₹24,112. Stop Loss: Below ₹23,497 to protect against breakdowns. Gap Down Opening (-100 points or more below ₹23,957) Demand Zone Test (₹23,807-₹23,497): If Nifty gaps down and opens near or below ₹23,807, focus on the demand zone. This zone is critical for potential reversals. Action Plan: Entry: Long near ₹23,807-₹23,497 after confirming bullish patterns. Target: ₹23,957 and ₹24,112. Stop Loss: Below ₹23,497 to limit losses. Breakdown Scenario (Below ₹23,497): A breakdown below ₹23,497 signals strong bearish momentum. Short positions can be taken if confirmed by volume and candle patterns. Action Plan: Entry: Short below ₹23,497 after confirmation. Target: ₹23,300-₹23,100. Stop Loss: Above ₹23,600 to avoid unnecessary risks. Risk Management Tips for Options Trading Limit your position size to ensure no single trade risks more than 2% of your capital. Use hedging strategies, such as buying protective puts or selling covered calls, to offset potential losses. Avoid trading during the first 15-30 minutes of market opening, as this period is highly volatile. Monitor implied volatility (IV) for options and select contracts with reasonable premiums to avoid overpaying. Summary and Conclusion This trading plan is designed to cater to multiple scenarios, ensuring you're prepared regardless of the market's direction. The key lies in observing critical levels like ₹24,112 and ₹23,807 and waiting for confirmation before entering trades. Remember: Yellow trends indicate sideways movement, green signals bullish momentum, and red shows bearish sentiment. Stick to the plan, respect stop losses, and prioritize capital preservation. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor or conduct your analysis before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
NIFTY on the cusp for potential correction!Dear Traders, I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical details: I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22) II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24) III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance) *** Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance. The wave patterns depicted in the diagram signal the completion of the trend. imgur.com Additional observations: Time series Forecasting: Top - Top - Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270) = 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3) = 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270) = 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360) Bottom – Top - Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180) = 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90) = 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle) = 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180) Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust. Historical Repetition: The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month. Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds. A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios: The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios. Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons. Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality. One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction. Fed and Markets: Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises. If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term. Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus. IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!! Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC) Strategy : 1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended. 2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders. Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty anlaysis for tomorrow 28 july 2024 (Nifty Intraday Setup)Today After breaking previous day high nifty consolidated from 12 pm to 2 pm and failed to sustain at higher level. And Nifty closed with a selling swing today. So for tomorrow if with opening market created a selling swing then a bounce will be expected and day high break or price near high will be expected. Look for W pattern on 5 min. (SELLING SHOULD NOT BE VERY SHARP AND BIG). And If Price move upside and take rejection below todays high & created a lower High (M Pattern on 5 mins.) then intraday low break will be expected.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by jain_abhishek
#nifty50 analysis for next week 26-30th Aug 2024Nifty surged nearly 300 points last week, closing at 24,823. It reached a high of 24,867 and a low of 24,522. As predicted, Nifty remained within its 25,200-23,900 range. For the coming week, I anticipate a Nifty range of 25,500 to 24,200. Breaking these levels could trigger significant market movements. If Nifty closes above the strong resistance of 24,860 this week, it could pave the way for levels like 25,500 and 25,800 in the near future. However, Monday's opening is crucial. If it equals the daily high or reaches 24,825, bearish sentiment might return, potentially leading to support levels at 24,625, 24,486, 24,346, and 24,200 being tested. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 5,634, up 70 points from the previous week. Interestingly, it closed right at the important Fibonacci level of 5,637. If it can close above this level for two consecutive days, the path to 5,700, 5,806, and even 6,142 could be open, potentially benefiting Indian markets as well.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
Nifty Analysis for Monday 29 july 2024Nifty created sharp upside momentum in last 2 days, it's ultimate goal is 25000. So I am providing highest probability intraday setup in Nifty50 My overview is bullish in nifty for Monday... it will good if Market opens gapdown or flat & creates a selling swing in first 30-45 mins then after creating a support price will bounce. If Market opens gapup or flat and moves upside in first 30-45 min. then there is a very less probability of continuation so if Market creates M pattern then selling swing will be expected and intraday low break is min. expected.
NSE:NIFTY
by jain_abhishek
1
NIFTY - Correction ahead of BudgetAt this juncture, nifty is expected to correct to the mentioned levels & to continue its rally towards 25,000 ~ 25,400 levels before any monthly correction can happen. The correction will be progressing through various barriers of supports(FIBONACCI & T.lines). SI - 24,162 SII - 24,010 SIII - 23,881 ~ 23,855 levels (V.imp support coincidence of .5% & mid T.line) The strategy is to take short today after testing the previous High @ 24,401 (the move might start today or 2 days later, Tentative) Trade Accordingly
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty Intraday (05-Jul-2024)The image is a chart displaying the 15-minute price movements of the Nifty 50 Index for July 3rd and 4th, 2024. It includes technical analysis with marked buy and sell signals: -Buy Signal: A suggestion to buy above 24,350 with a target open for 24,450 or more. -Sell Signal: A recommendation to sell below 24,275 with a target of 24,125 or lower. The chart also shows the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which helps traders gauge the trend direction and potential support or resistance levels.
NSE:NIFTY
by Praveenmor7