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Niftytrading

Riding the Correction: Unlocking NIFTY’s Next Chapter!Dear Traders, I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical Analysis Overview: There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring. Scenario I: The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here: The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe. Potential support levels include S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels, S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and S – III: 23,683 levels. *These values are not actual but just levels The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses. Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios. --------------- Scenario II: The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here: The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend. Potential support levels include, S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels, S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and S – III: 23,450 levels. --------------- Scenario III: The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend. The pictorial representation can be seen here: Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability. --------------- Other Influential Factors: Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality. Important Dates to Remember: Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports). --------------- Final Verdict: While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable. --------------- Strategy: Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds) . Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
NIFTY on the cusp for potential correction!Dear Traders, I trust this message finds you well in both your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am pleased to present a compelling opportunity through a new NIFTY analysis that indicates an imminent significant market shift. The recent upward surge in the market has prompted concerns, as my analysis over the past two months has consistently pointed to an anticipated correction owing to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical details: I. Resistance I: 25,388 ~ 25,430 (Extended trend line from 17th JUN'22) II. Resistance II: 25,490 ~ 25,510 ~ 25,526 (Conj. Extended trend line from 24 JAN'24 & 24 JUN'24) III. Resistance III: 25,590 (Extended trend line from 29 FEB'16 – Long & strong Resistance) *** Please note that these values serve as indicative levels of support and resistance. The wave patterns depicted in the diagram signal the completion of the trend. imgur.com Additional observations: Time series Forecasting: Top - Top - Today (04/09/2024) = 1690 D from 20jan'20 (1710 = 360*4 + 270) = 1053 D from 19oct'21 (1080 = 360*3) = 644 D from 01dec'22 (630 = 360+270) = 356 D from 15sept'23 (~360) Bottom – Top - Today (04/09/24) = 1626 D from 24mar'20 (1620 = 4*360+180) = 811 D from 17jun'22 (810 = 720 + 90) = 315 D from 26oct'23 (exactly an important angle) = 535 D from 20mar'23 (540 = 360 + 180) Given these short and long-term observations, the time resistance(s) are notably robust. Historical Repetition: The ongoing 14-day winning streak, continuously setting new records, typically precedes short-term corrections ranging from 3% to 24%, as historically observed. For instance, in May 2006, Nifty’s non-stop 9-day rally culminated in a 24% index decline in the subsequent month, while a similar trend in February 2000 resulted in an 11% decline in the subsequent month. Consequently, a market breather is anticipated, with profit booking potentially driving the market to deeper levels before embarking on a new uptrend (anticipated correction in the monthly scale, evident in the 3M time frame). Further details will be provided as the market unfolds. A correction of this magnitude is expected to materialize, with the following scenarios: The initial focus is to prioritize the trend line-based correction scenario. The primary support levels are identified at 23,100. Any subsequent breakout will result in distinct scenarios. Scenario 1: From 15,183.40, retracement towards 21,500 = 4,000 pts (38.2%R) (-12 to 15%), highly probable given the aforementioned reasons. Scenario 2: From 16,828, retracement towards 21,100 levels = 4,400 pts (50%R) (-13% to 17%), also plausible within the realm of reality. One of these scenarios is poised to unfold as the market progresses into correction. Fed and Markets: Considering the correlation between interest rates and market fluctuations, it is wise to take them into account. Typically, their relationship is inversely proportional. However, the Fed has been delaying the easing process due to economic conditions such as employment and inflation data. This month may bring many surprises. If everything goes according to plan, interest rates will be reduced, theoretically boosting investment in gold and stock markets. On the other hand, if the dovishness in the rate decision continues, it will likely unsettle the markets, at least in the short term. Further data releases this month will help in forming a consensus. IMPORTANT DATES TO REMEMBER!!! Sept - 5, 6, 11, 12, 18 (FOMC) Strategy : 1. Being bullish beyond this point is not recommended. 2. Bearish bets are prudent from 25, 300 – 350, 400 for FOMO traders. Risky traders may consider waiting for the 25,500 levels to be tested. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Your feedback is genuinely appreciated, and I would encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section. I am committed to engaging with each response. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by liking and following me. Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty anlaysis for tomorrow 28 july 2024 (Nifty Intraday Setup)Today After breaking previous day high nifty consolidated from 12 pm to 2 pm and failed to sustain at higher level. And Nifty closed with a selling swing today. So for tomorrow if with opening market created a selling swing then a bounce will be expected and day high break or price near high will be expected. Look for W pattern on 5 min. (SELLING SHOULD NOT BE VERY SHARP AND BIG). And If Price move upside and take rejection below todays high & created a lower High (M Pattern on 5 mins.) then intraday low break will be expected.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by jain_abhishek
#nifty50 analysis for next week 26-30th Aug 2024Nifty surged nearly 300 points last week, closing at 24,823. It reached a high of 24,867 and a low of 24,522. As predicted, Nifty remained within its 25,200-23,900 range. For the coming week, I anticipate a Nifty range of 25,500 to 24,200. Breaking these levels could trigger significant market movements. If Nifty closes above the strong resistance of 24,860 this week, it could pave the way for levels like 25,500 and 25,800 in the near future. However, Monday's opening is crucial. If it equals the daily high or reaches 24,825, bearish sentiment might return, potentially leading to support levels at 24,625, 24,486, 24,346, and 24,200 being tested. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed at 5,634, up 70 points from the previous week. Interestingly, it closed right at the important Fibonacci level of 5,637. If it can close above this level for two consecutive days, the path to 5,700, 5,806, and even 6,142 could be open, potentially benefiting Indian markets as well.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by ssudhirsharma11
Nifty Analysis for Monday 29 july 2024Nifty created sharp upside momentum in last 2 days, it's ultimate goal is 25000. So I am providing highest probability intraday setup in Nifty50 My overview is bullish in nifty for Monday... it will good if Market opens gapdown or flat & creates a selling swing in first 30-45 mins then after creating a support price will bounce. If Market opens gapup or flat and moves upside in first 30-45 min. then there is a very less probability of continuation so if Market creates M pattern then selling swing will be expected and intraday low break is min. expected.
NSE:NIFTY
by jain_abhishek
1
NIFTY - Correction ahead of BudgetAt this juncture, nifty is expected to correct to the mentioned levels & to continue its rally towards 25,000 ~ 25,400 levels before any monthly correction can happen. The correction will be progressing through various barriers of supports(FIBONACCI & T.lines). SI - 24,162 SII - 24,010 SIII - 23,881 ~ 23,855 levels (V.imp support coincidence of .5% & mid T.line) The strategy is to take short today after testing the previous High @ 24,401 (the move might start today or 2 days later, Tentative) Trade Accordingly
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty Intraday (05-Jul-2024)The image is a chart displaying the 15-minute price movements of the Nifty 50 Index for July 3rd and 4th, 2024. It includes technical analysis with marked buy and sell signals: -Buy Signal: A suggestion to buy above 24,350 with a target open for 24,450 or more. -Sell Signal: A recommendation to sell below 24,275 with a target of 24,125 or lower. The chart also shows the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which helps traders gauge the trend direction and potential support or resistance levels.
NSE:NIFTY
by Praveenmor7
NIFTY - Trend ContinuationAs it happens there seems to be some strength left in the bullish cycle. This is based on the fact that the trendlines that were resisting till now can't hold it anymore & need much stronger resistance which is where the market is headed (to 24,300 levels) All of this analysis is attributed to the development of interim weekly correction that collapsed the overall wave analysis done earlier (it calls for an additional 3 waves --> UP-DOWN & UP) Strategy: Long only if the market stays above 23,680 with a limited position only SL: 23,620
NSE:NIFTYLong
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
Nifty Intraday (01-07-2024)The image displays a trading chart for the Nifty 50 Index, showing a 15-minute interval, as observed on July 1, 2024. Here are the key features of the chart: Candlestick Format: Each bar represents a 15-minute trading interval with indications of opening, high, low, and closing prices. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): A blue line represents the 20-period EMA, providing insight into the trend's direction and potential support or resistance levels. Trading Signals: -Buy Signal: A green arrow suggests buying if the Nifty moves above 24,035, with an open target above 24,150. -Sell Signal: A red arrow indicates a selling position if the index drops below 23,950, aiming for a target of 23,825. Technical Overview: The chart captures the intraday movement of the Nifty index, illustrating volatility and potential trading zones based on the EMA and past performance.
NSE:NIFTY
by Praveenmor7
NIFTY - High probability Correction ahead..!!!The move testing the highs of 21st JUN is about to conclude, following which the correction begins in one larger degree. the trendlines & supports can be seen in the charts Important points of support will be, SI - 22,665 SII - 22,535 to hold temporarily SIII - 22,130 ~ 21,830 SL - Any higher moves beyond 23,750 PS: The correction has equally arguable alternate probabilities, to be exact 2. 1. The correction from 20MAR'23 (16,828 levels) - A LP Outcome 2. The Possibility of an extending triangle - meager probable outcome. *The discussed outcome is highly probable among all these. However, the data from the market's forthcoming sessions are mandatory for confirming the same - to eradicate the alternatives!!! Short positions can be taken from 23,690 ~ 23,700 levels Trade Accordingly.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
NIFTY - On the verge of a correction There is a possibility that the market is being interrupted by the intersection of two strong resistances (mid-trend line intersection) which calls for a correction in the monthly time frame. However, the penultimate move is yet to be completed. The market is about to test the previous day's low @23,442.60 & after that, there will be a struggling upward move testing again at 23,664. The correction progresses from there to the 21,280 ~ 21,200 levels Today support for the upcoming penultimate move will be, SI - 23,442.60 SII - 23,435 ~ 417 SIII - 23,382 NO recommended SL for this trade setup (Any substantial increase above 22,664, calls off the trade). The resistance to the final move is 23,664 & is expected to surpass the said levels by a minimum margin. Trade accordingly.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan