NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 21-Jan-2025🔖 Nifty Trading Plan for 21-Jan-2025
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance Zones: 23,404–23,435 (Important Intraday Resistance), Profit Booking Zone: 23,525+
Support Zones: 23,375 (Opening Support/Resistance Zone), 23,245 (Buyer’s Support Zone), 23,114 (Golden Retracement Support)
1️⃣ Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above 23,435)
📍 Analysis: A gap-up above 23,435 signals strong bullish sentiment. However, the profit booking zone above 23,525 can lead to selling pressure.
📌 Action Plan:
If Nifty consolidates below 23,525, look for rejection signs. A reversal from this zone provides a short trade opportunity targeting 23,435.
If Nifty breaks and sustains above 23,525 with strong volume, initiate a long trade, targeting 23,600 or higher. Use a trailing stop-loss to lock in profits.
Avoid trading immediately after the opening; observe the market's behavior for at least 15 minutes to confirm direction.
📚 Educational Insight: Gap-up openings often trigger profit booking near key resistance levels. Always wait for rejection or breakout confirmation to reduce risk.
2️⃣ Flat Opening (Within 23,344–23,375)
📍 Analysis: A flat opening suggests indecision in the market. The range between 23,344–23,375 will act as a critical zone for direction.
📌 Action Plan:
If Nifty struggles to hold above 23,375 and shows signs of rejection, consider a short trade targeting 23,304 or 23,245.
If Nifty sustains above 23,375, initiate a long trade targeting 23,404 and then 23,435. Ensure confirmation through volume and price action.
A decisive breakdown below 23,344 may indicate bearish sentiment, providing a shorting opportunity toward 23,304.
📚 Educational Insight: Flat openings provide the best opportunity to analyze market sentiment. Allow the first 15–30 minutes to settle before entering trades for better clarity.
3️⃣ Gap-Down Opening (100+ points near or below 23,245)
📍 Analysis: A gap-down near the Buyer’s Support Zone (23,245) or Golden Retracement Support (23,114) can trigger either panic selling or strong buying interest.
📌 Action Plan:
Look for reversals near 23,245 or 23,114. A strong bounce from these levels can provide a long trade opportunity targeting 23,304 or 23,375.
If Nifty sustains below 23,114 with high selling volume, initiate short trades targeting 23,050 or lower.
Avoid rushing into trades during a gap-down; wait for clear signs of reversal or breakdown for better risk management.
📚 Educational Insight: Gap-down scenarios often create volatility. Support zones like 23,245 and 23,114 can act as reversal points, but their failure may amplify bearish momentum.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
✅ Use strict stop-loss levels to minimize losses in volatile markets.
✅ Avoid trading in the first 15 minutes after the opening, as it often exhibits unpredictable price movements.
✅ Consider using strategies like spreads (bull/bear spreads) in high-IV conditions to cap potential losses.
✅ Monitor hourly candle closures for confirmation before entering high-risk trades.
✅ Never over-leverage; trade with an amount you are comfortable risking.
🔍 Summary & Conclusion:
Gap-Up: Watch price action near 23,525; trade rejections or sustained breakouts.
Flat: Observe the reaction within 23,344–23,375; trade breakouts or breakdowns accordingly.
Gap-Down: Look for buying opportunities at 23,245 or 23,114, but respect bearish momentum if these levels fail.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor or conduct your own research before trading.
Niftytrend
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 21/01/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. Expected opening near 23350 level. After opening possible nifty will consolidated in between 23300-23400 zone. If nifty starts trading and sustain above 23400 then expected sharp upside rally upto 23600+ level. Any major downside only expected below 23300 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 20/01/2025Flat or slightly gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening it will face resistance at 23250 level expected downside movement from this level upto the 23050 in today's session. If nifty starts trading and sustain above the 23300 level then expected upside movement upto the 23500+. 23500 level will act as a strong resistance for today's session.
NIFTY 50 in Rangebound Movement, Poised to Break Resistance..!The NIFTY 50 index is currently navigating a rangebound market, attempting to break through a short-term resistance level at 23360 rs. So far, it has tested a significant support level of 23100 rs on two separate occasions, indicating a critical point for potential market stability or decline. Investors should exercise caution, as disappointing quarterly results could weigh heavily on market sentiment and increase volatility. Keeping a close eye on these developments is essential for making informed decisions.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 20-Jan-2025🔖 Nifty Trading Plan for 20-Jan-2025
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance Zones: 23,318–23,334, Profit Booking Zone: 23,405–23,435
Support Zones: 23,113–23,201, 23,007, 22,962
1️⃣ Gap-Up Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens above 23,334:
Look for consolidation or rejection near Profit Booking Zone (23,405–23,435). If rejected, consider a short entry with a target towards 23,334 or 23,269.
Sustained breakout above 23,435 may lead to a rally. Use trailing stop-loss to ride the momentum.
📌 Educational Insight: Gap-ups often signal bullish momentum, but profit booking zones can act as reversal points. Observe price action carefully.
2️⃣ Flat Opening (Within 23,201–23,203)
Monitor opening price reaction within the Golden Retracement Zone (23,113–23,201).
If Nifty holds 23,201, it’s a signal to go long with a target towards 23,318–23,334.
Break below 23,113 could indicate bearish momentum. Short below this level with a target towards 23,007.
📌 Educational Insight: Flat openings are ideal for price action-based trades. Let the first 30 minutes settle before taking positions for the best risk-reward setup.
3️⃣ Gap-Down Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens near 22,962–23,007:
Look for bullish reversals within the Trending Shift Zone (22,962–23,007). Go long if strong buying is observed, targeting 23,113.
A breakdown below 22,962 could lead to further weakness. Short positions below this level with a target of 22,880.
📌 Educational Insight: Gap-downs often create opportunities for sharp reversals or continuation trends. Wait for confirmation before entering trades.
📌 Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Use hourly candle close as confirmation before entering trades.
For directional trades, avoid over-leveraging and use defined stop-loss.
Hedge positions using spreads to limit risk in volatile markets.
Monitor IV (Implied Volatility) while trading options; high IV can inflate premiums.
🔍 Summary & Conclusion:
For 20-Jan-2025, focus on the key zones:
Watch Golden Retracement Zone (23,113–23,201) for flat openings.
Look for rejection or breakout near 23,405–23,435 in case of gap-ups.
Keep an eye on 22,962–23,007 for possible reversals in gap-down scenarios.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This plan is for educational purposes only. Traders are advised to conduct their own analysis or consult with financial advisors before making any trading decisions.
Nifty Trapped in Downward Parallel Channel. Fear grips D-street.Nifty post today's closing just above 23K has officially closed below Mid Channel within the downward channel. This is not a great news for bulls. The only silver lining in the cloud is that the closing is above 23K at 23024.
Bollinger band is suggesting a support near it's lower band width that is 22936. Other supports for Nifty will be at 22785, 22465, 21886(Bottom of Parallel Channel) and 21232. Resistance on the upper side seem to be at 23355, 23542 (Mid-Bollinger band level), 23662 Father Line resistance of daily chart, 23878 Father line resistance of daily chart and finally 24148 (Channel top and Bollinger band top resistance). When channel top will be crossed and we get a closing above the same the next resistances will be at 24799 and 25134. Thus signs are looking ominous with RSI at 35.37. RSI support will be near 30 range.
Nifty has once again entered Extreme Fear zone on Ticker tape index which shows it currently at 27.21. The zone below 30 is Extreme fear zone and long term investors tend to make much profit when they invest in these Extreme fear zone. The budget is around the corner.
Donald Trump has taken oath and is taking decisions in a fast-forward T-20 mode. The momentum can shift any time. Global peace is also seeing green shoots with Israel and Palestine conflict ceasefire deal taking shape. We hope that Ukraine and Russia will also see a peaceful resolution. The hour before the dawn is the darkest. This looks like that zone for Global markets including India. Yes hardball tactics will be played by Trump and things will not come as easily as they were coming for India. We had once said that Trump will be good for the world as Biden was softer towards India on the outer surface.
In the long run we will soon begin to see light at the end of the tunnel. Little more pain may be left for Indian indices. Result season so far has been a mixed bag that is adding fuel to the wild-fire set by bears. Budget/ Quad meeting later this year and world moving towards peace can set the ball rolling for Bulls sooner than later. Once again I emphasize that sensibel investments done in the extreme fear zone yield to the best results in the long run.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 22-Jan-2025🔖 Nifty Trading Plan for 22-Jan-2025
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance Zones: 23,097–23,201, Last Intraday Resistance: 23,330
Support Zones: 22,962, 22,689 (Last Intraday Support)
1️⃣ Gap-Up Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens above 23,201:
Watch for price action near the Last Intraday Resistance (23,330). A rejection from this level could offer a short trade opportunity with a target towards 23,201.
A sustained breakout above 23,330 can signal strong bullish momentum, and a long trade with a trailing stop-loss could be beneficial to ride the trend higher towards the next possible profit-taking zone near 23,435.
📌 Educational Insight: Gap-ups above resistance zones can often trigger profit booking or reversal patterns. Always wait for a confirmation candle before entering any trades.
2️⃣ Flat Opening (Within 22,962–23,097)
Focus on the reaction at the Opening Resistance Zone (23,097). If Nifty fails to sustain above this zone, shorting the market with a target towards 22,962 could be favorable.
Conversely, if Nifty holds above 23,097, a long trade targeting 23,201 may be considered, with a tight stop loss below 23,052.
A breakdown below 22,962 may signal bearish momentum, opening short trades towards the Last Intraday Support at 22,689.
📌 Educational Insight: Flat openings provide the best opportunity for observing market sentiment. Let the market settle for the first 15–30 minutes for better clarity before making any trade decisions.
3️⃣ Gap-Down Opening (100+ points)
If Nifty opens near 22,689 or below:
Look for a reversal near the Last Intraday Support (22,689–22,830). A strong bounce here could provide a long trade targeting 22,962 or higher.
However, if Nifty sustains below 22,689, it might indicate further bearishness, and shorting the market with a target toward 22,600 could be considered.
📌 Educational Insight: Gap-down openings often lead to panic or aggressive buying at support levels. It is essential to wait for confirmation through price action and volume before entering trades.
📌 Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
Use defined stop-loss levels and avoid over-leveraging during volatile market conditions.
Trade spreads (like bull/bear spreads) to limit potential losses during high implied volatility (IV) conditions.
Keep an eye on hourly candle closures for added confirmation of trend direction.
Avoid entering trades within the first 15 minutes of the market opening. Let the market settle to avoid false breakouts or breakdowns.
🔍 Summary & Conclusion:
Gap-Up: Watch for action near 23,201–23,330. Focus on rejection or breakout opportunities.
Flat: Key action zone around 23,097; observe for potential breakouts or breakdowns.
Gap-Down: Look for buying opportunities near 22,689, but be cautious of further bearish trends if support is broken.
⚠️ Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor or conduct your own analysis before trading.
Nifty Futures intraday on Jan 21, 2025The market is expected to be bearish today, with Nifty Futures likely to find support at 23,110. The 'Dynamic Buy/Sell' indicator confirmed a sell signal yesterday, January 20th, at 15:20 hrs. This non-repainting indicator, equipped with auto stop-loss models, primarily responds to price action, helping traders stay objective and avoid emotional decisions.
Good Closing by Nifty just above Mother Line. Nifty today did well to close just above Mother line of hourly chart. The closing we got was at 23344 and 50 EMA or the Mother line is at 23330. This bring the hope of recover towards 23.5K and further towards 24K+ levels in the medium to short duration.
The resistances for Nifty right now remain at 23390, 23460, 23589 and 23703. Closing above 23703 will be very good for Bulls as they can drag the index in this scenario towards 23821, 24021 and 24231 levels. Supports for Nifty on the lower side remain at 23330 (Mother line support, 50 EMA), 23172 and 23046. Closing below 23046 can lead to Bears coming back to pull nifty further down. As of now shadow of the candle is positive.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
#Nifty50 Market Update: A Week of Weakness and What Lies Ahead
This week, Nifty closed at 23,203, down by 228 points from the previous week's close. It touched a high of 23,391 and a low of 23,047, reflecting a volatile yet cautious market sentiment. The candlestick pattern for the week is indicative of weak market sentiment, signaling growing bearish pressure.
As highlighted last week, the market saw a bounce used by institutional players to offload their positions, leading to a sharp pullback. The Nifty was confined within the range of 23,950 to 22,900, as anticipated. Looking ahead, I expect Nifty to continue oscillating between 23,750 and 22,700 in the coming week.
From a monthly perspective, the market remains in a selling phase, and until either the monthly or weekly timeframes shift into the buying zone, or Nifty tests key support levels near 22,400/22,300, the bears will likely maintain control.
S&P500 Update: Recovery with Caution
Over in the US, the S&P 500 has bounced back from the lows of 5,773 and closed just below the critical Fibonacci resistance level of 6,013. If the index manages to stay above 6,013 next week, we could see it testing higher resistance levels around 6,100.
However, expect potential selling pressure to kick in on Monday, and if the index dips below 5,900, it could test key support levels at 5,821, 5,773, or even 5,700.
Bottom Line: Brace for Volatility Ahead
In conclusion, selling pressure is expected to persist in the markets for the time being. Traders should prepare for a bumpy ride as we navigate through these volatile conditions. Stay alert, manage risk, and keep an eye on critical support and resistance levels.
Closing above Mother line & Pitchfork median line unsuccessful.Nifty tried hard to close above Mother line of 50 Weeks EMA and Pitchfork median line this week but was unsuccessful. Closing above 23433 is imperial for Nifty to gain a bullish momentum. Pitchfork is used to determine the long term trend of Nifty. In this particular chart the Pitchfork starts from 2021 and extends till 2026 end. The upper side has lot of potential as you can see the top is leading towards 32.5K+. Even the Median line is leading towards the target close to 29K. Supports for Nifty in the medium term because of the current bearish trend are at 22.8K, 21.8K, 21.2K, 20.2K and finally 200 Weeks EMA or the Father line at 19.5K.(This looks improbable as of now on chart as these levels are even below the pitchfork trend channel.)
Usually the tops and bottoms of Pitchfork channel are not easy to break hence the worst case scenario as of now looks like 20.2K. Looking at the bigger picture IMF has declared a robust outlook for India for the next 3 years with GDP growing at an average of 6.63% for the next 3 years. (2025-6.5%, 2026-6.7% and 6.7%). However actual GDP growth can be much higher if the Government remains stable for a sustained period of time. The IMF estimates should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Long term investors can utilise every fall to add some blue chips. Remain selective in Mid and Small cap space as the PE in some of the Mid and small cap companies are still at unsustainable levels even after this fall. For Bulls to be back in business we need a weekly closing above Pitchfork median and Mother line at 23433. Weekly Closing above 23433 would have potential to take us near 24.5K or even above 25.5K levels in the short to medium term. Closing below 22.8K can bring little more wait and pain for investors. Good effort by Nifty this week but closing was not good. We need a strong move next week for Bulls to be back to business.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 17/01/2025Flat opening expected in nifty. After opening it will face resistance zone at 23350-23400 level. Any strong bullish rally only expected above the 23400 level breakout. Downside 23150 act as a support for today's session. Any reversal downside rally can be goes upto this support level in today's session.
Good Leap by Nifty today in anticipation of RIL/INFY results. Good Leap by Nifty today in anticipation of RIL/INFY results and closed 98 points up at 23311. Real test is the level of between 23377 (Mother Line) and 23398 (Important Resistance).
This includes today's high and Mother line resistance and another important resistance. After closing above this zone the next resistances will be at 23469, 23598, 23736 and finally 23770 (Father Line resistance of Hourly chart.)
Supports for Nifty on the lower side now remain at 23267, 23147 and 23053. If we get a poor result for Reliance these levels will be tested once again and there will be pressure on Bulls and Bears will again try to overpower Nifty. The tussle has reached a delicate stage now and thing can give. (Either a Breakout of Breakdown).
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 16/01/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. Expected opening near 23400 level. 23350-23400 will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Strong upside rally only expected if nifty starts trading above 23400 level. This rally can goes upto 23600+ level in today's session. Downside expected below 23350 level. This downside can goes upto 23050 level.
23K has emerged as a good support zone for Nifty. As of now the 2 day's positive closing has given hopes of 23K levels being a good support zone. However there are 4 major hurdles in the path of Nifty before it can move ahead with full force. Reliance result tomorrow can be of some help to Nifty if at all it is positive. On the other hand if Reliance result is negative it can be a major hurdle looking at the weightage of the script in the index. US Inflation data to be announced later tonight can also give a direction to the markets all over. FII selling pressure can diminish if Dollar falls and Rupee starts making a steady gain. After making a high of 86.69 2 days back USD is currently at 86.34 declining a bit which has increased optimism in the mood of market. Market Mood index is at 33.25 and has recovered from Extreme fear zone and has entered the fear zone.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 23053, 22663 and 22376 levels. Below 22376 Bears can drag Nifty further down by another 400 to 1000 points.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 23283, 23397 (Mother line resistance), 23598, 23803 (Father line resistance), 24198 and finally 24802 levels. Bulls can be back in the game truly after closing above 24802 level only.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 15/01/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening nifty will face resistance at 23350 level and expected reversal from this level towards the downside movement upto 23050 level. This downside can be extend for further strong sell side if nifty starts trading below 23000 level. Any major upside rally only expected if nifty gives the breakout and sustain above the 23400 level.
Nifty 50: Bearish Trend with Key Support LevelsOverview of the Chart:
The chart represents the daily candlestick pattern for the Nifty 50 index, combined with the following indicators and tools:
ZLMA (Zero Lag Moving Average) for 50 and 100 periods.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels drawn from the most recent high to low.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) to measure momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to analyze momentum and trend direction.
ZLMA (Zero Lag Moving Averages):
50 ZLMA (Black Line): This represents the short-term trend. The index is currently trading below this moving average, indicating bearish momentum in the short term.
100 ZLMA (Blue Line): This acts as a long-term trend indicator. The index is also below this level, signaling a weakening trend in the medium to long term.
The convergence of these two ZLMAs suggests a key resistance zone around the 24,000–24,150 range. Until the price breaks above these levels, the overall bias remains bearish.
Fibonacci Retracement Analysis:
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn between the recent swing high of 26,282.35 and swing low of 21,296.50. Key levels:
23.6% Retracement (25,105.70): This acted as resistance during earlier retracements and failed to hold.
38.2% Retracement (24,377.75): Another resistance level where the price struggled and has recently broken down.
50% Retracement (23,789.40): The index is now below this level, which may act as immediate resistance.
61.8% Retracement (23,201.10): The current level is hovering close to this support. If breached, the next target would be the 78.6% retracement (22,363.45).
The inability to reclaim higher Fibonacci levels reinforces the bearish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI: 35.05, below the neutral level of 50.
The RSI is nearing the oversold region (below 30), which might indicate a potential bounce. However, this is not confirmed yet, as momentum remains weak.
Previous RSI divergence patterns do not suggest immediate reversal signals.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
MACD Line (-173.87) is well below the signal line (-235.40), confirming the bearish momentum.
The histogram bars remain negative, showing no signs of reversal yet.
The MACD's placement suggests that the bearish phase is intact and any uptrend might be corrective.
Volume Analysis:
The volume appears consistent but does not show any significant spikes. This suggests a lack of strong buyer interest at the current levels.
Declining volume during pullbacks indicates weak bullish attempts.
Current Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: 23,201.10 (61.8% Fibonacci) and 22,363.45 (78.6% Fibonacci).
Resistance Levels: 23,789.40 (50% Fibonacci), followed by 24,150 (near the ZLMA 50 and 100).
Conclusion:
The Nifty 50 index is in a bearish phase, trading below its key moving averages and important Fibonacci levels. The RSI and MACD confirm the negative sentiment. However, the proximity to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and oversold RSI suggests that there might be a short-term bounce, especially if 23,201.10 holds as support. A failure to hold this level would open the doors for a deeper correction towards 22,363.45.
Traders should closely watch volume and price action near these support and resistance levels to further confirmation of trend direction.
Note:
Studies are for educational purposes only.
We will not be responsible for any of your Profits & Losses.
Please trade with a proper risk management strategy to avoid huge capital loss.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 14/01/2025Today nifty will open gap up near the 23200 level. After opening it will face resistance at this level. Small upside rally expected if nifty starts trading above 23200 level this rally can goes upto 23350 level. Expected strong rejection from this level and further downside movement in nifty. After reversal confirmation from this level downside expected target will be upto 23050. Further strong fall in index expected below 23000 level.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 14-Jan-2025Trading Plan for 14-Jan-2025
This structured plan outlines potential strategies for different opening scenarios. Follow it step by step to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively.
Scenario 1: Gap-Up Opening (100+ Points Above 23,091)
🟢 A gap-up opening often indicates strong bullish momentum, but it’s crucial to watch for resistance at key levels.
Key Levels: Focus on 23,239 (Immediate opening resistance) and 23,374 (Last intraday resistance).
Plan of Action:
If Nifty opens near 23,239 and shows signs of rejection, wait for a bearish confirmation candle. Enter a short trade targeting 23,091 .
If it sustains above 23,239 , consider a long trade with a target of 23,374 . Place a stop loss below 23,239 .
Risk Management Tip: For options, use call spreads instead of naked call buying to reduce time decay losses.
Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 23,091)
🟡 Flat openings indicate neutral sentiment, often requiring more patience for market direction.
Key Levels: Monitor the No-Trade Zone (23,048 - 23,091) .
Plan of Action:
Avoid trading within the No-Trade Zone unless a breakout above 23,091 or a breakdown below 23,048 occurs.
Above 23,091 : Initiate a long trade with a target of 23,239 . Place a stop loss below 23,091 .
Below 23,048 : Go short with a target of 22,900 . Stop loss above 23,048 .
Risk Management Tip: Avoid impulsive trades. Let the market establish direction first.
Scenario 3: Gap-Down Opening (100+ Points Below 23,048)
🔴 A gap-down opening suggests bearish sentiment. Look for opportunities near strong support levels.
Key Levels: Focus on 22,825 - 22,689 (Buyer’s Try Zone).
Plan of Action:
If Nifty approaches the Buyer’s Try Zone and shows a bullish reversal, initiate a long trade with a target of 23,048 . Stop loss below 22,689 .
If it sustains below 22,689 , consider a short trade targeting 22,600 .
Risk Management Tip: Use option strategies like put spreads to limit risk in highly volatile markets.
Tips for Risk Management in Options Trading:
✔️ Avoid trading aggressively during the first 15 minutes of market opening. Let volatility settle.
✔️ Focus on spreads (e.g., bull call spread or bear put spread) to control risks better.
✔️ Use proper position sizing: Limit risk to 2-3% of your total capital per trade.
✔️ Adjust positions dynamically as levels are tested or broken.
Summary and Conclusion:
The market is poised for volatile movement on 14-Jan-2025. Stick to the plan and respect the No-Trade Zone for flat openings. Use the Buyer’s Try Zone for potential reversals in case of a gap-down opening. Patience, discipline, and effective risk management will be your key to success.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please do your research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Nifty in search of bottom. As it was expected Nifty plummeted further in search of bottom. Nifty closed at 23085 which is near a fragile support of 23057. It does not look likely that The reasons for the fall are various as explained in the previous posts. Some of reasons being constant selling of FIIs under the guise risk free return available in US debt market in addition to other value buying options emerging in other developing markets.
Nifty valuations have seen reasonable correction now buying can emerge slowly in next 1 to 4 weeks as per my understanding. Dollar is at valuations that are hardly justified and once the correction in Dollar starts we will see FIIs returning to Indian markets. The bottom support levels are at 23057, 22800, 22421, 21783, 21294 and finally 20813 region. It will be interesting to see which of these levels emerge as a firm bottom from where Nifty can bounce back. Resistances for Nifty now seem to be at 23359, 23690 (Father Line Resistance), 23938, 24060 (Mother Line Resistance), 24525, 24948, 25379, 25782 and finally 26277. Once previous ATH is crossed we will see new highs in Nifty hopefully within this year in the range of 27 or 28K. As of now little bit of pain still remains in the market. Nifty is already in the EXTREME FEAR ZONE AT 23.30. Long term investors can start value buying. (As per Ticker tape).
Extreme fear zone (<30) suggests a good time to open fresh positions as markets are likely to be oversold and might turn upwards.
Extreme greed zone (>70) suggests to be cautious in opening fresh positions as markets are overbought and likely to turn downwards.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
The Wave is Shifting: Anticipate NIFTY’s Next Move!Dear Traders,
I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift.
Preliminary Analysis Overview:
The correction initiated on September 27, 2024, is a correction for the move from June 17, 2022, to September 27, 2024 (15,183.40 to 26,277.35). This move has spanned over 120 weeks (834 days) in time and 11,093.95 points in price. This necessitates a long-term and deeper correction, which is currently underway. This can be visually represented by the trend lines:
The downward trend from the all-time high continues, which is currently experiencing a corrective phase within a larger correction.
There are two potential phases for the ongoing trend:
Phase I:
The initial phase of correction primarily tested the .236 R of the aforementioned motive wave (refer to the figure below):
Following the correction, there is a correction within the correction in a larger degree (although the primary downtrend remains intact).
This internal correction is anticipated to rise further to test 0.146 R and 0.073 R of the long-term bull market (serving as potential resistances).
RI – 24,254.10
RII – 24,600 ~24,657
RIII – 25,100 ~25,120
*These values are not actual but merely levels.
Time resistances are anticipated on January 9th and February 17th (of considerable strength).
Reference:
Phase II:
Following the completion of the internal correction, the market is anticipated to resume its current downward trend in a more significant manner to test the 38.2 R (21,500 levels) + static support junction, which will be further discussed as the market evolves.
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**Important Dates to Remember: **
Please note the following significant economic indicators and their release dates:
**January 8, 9, and 10: ** Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and employment data release (NFP).
**January 13 and 14: ** Inflation data release.
**January 13-16: ** Sales and inflation data release.
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**Final Verdict: **
The current uptrend is considered interim. The primary trend remains downward and is anticipated to persist further and deeper. This trend is expected to test the 38.2% resistance level coinciding with the 21,360-support level.
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**Strategy: **
Given the prevailing market conditions, adopting a bullish stance appears prudent. Key levels to monitor include 24,657 and 25,120, which are expected to be tested. It is imperative to remain vigilant and informed about potential opportunities that may arise.
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Fellow Traders,
The creation of this valuable analytical resource has required countless hours of dedication and effort. If you find it useful, I humbly request your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be provided via this post, new posts, and through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article.
Wishing you profitable and fulfilling trading endeavors!
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must emphasize that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is crucial for you to conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial objectives and risk tolerance.