Market Update: Nifty Faces Bearish Pressure, 17-21st feb
Nifty closed at 22,929 this week, marking a decline of 630 points from the previous week's close. The index reached a high of 23,568 and a low of 22,774. As highlighted in my previous post, the bearish sentiment in Nifty remains intact, as both the monthly and weekly timeframes show negative trends. Until there is a significant reversal on these timeframes, the bearish outlook is expected to continue.
Looking ahead to next week, I anticipate Nifty will move within a range of 23,450 to 22,400 . The 22,300/22,400 zone offers strong support, and if this level is breached, we could see Nifty heading towards the 21,800 levels. Given this volatility, Nifty might not be the ideal index for small investors, particularly those heavily invested in mid and small-cap stocks. Let’s now take a closer look at the mid-cap and small-cap indices.
The Mid-Cap Index is currently near its key support level of 48,700 on the monthly chart. If it manages to hold this support next week, a potential reversal could follow, offering some relief to investors. On the other hand, the Small-Cap Index is still far from its crucial support of 14,500, which suggests that we could witness further downside of 4-5% in this segment . This could add more pressure on small-cap stocks, which are already facing a tough environment.
On a global front, the S&P 500 has finally broken through the strong resistance at 6,100 and closed above this level. If it manages to sustain above 6,100, we could see it reach 6,225 or even 6,376. This could potentially provide some tailwinds for the Indian markets, but for now, it seems that the Indian market remains under the tight grip of bearish forces.
In conclusion, while there are some signs of potential recovery in specific indices, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Investors should stay vigilant, especially in mid and small-cap segments, as the road ahead could be bumpy.
Niftytrend
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 17.02.2025Friday’s session saw Nifty opening with a gap-up, but it failed to sustain the momentum. After hitting a high of 23,133.70, it reversed sharply, making a low of 22,774.85, testing the Daily Demand Zone (22,642.60 - 22,910.15) for the third time. A partial recovery followed, but Nifty still closed at 22,929.25, losing 102 points from the previous close. The Weekly Trend (50 SMA) and Daily Trend (50 SMA) remain sideways, signaling indecision.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 22,642.60 - 22,910.15 (Tested multiple times)
Far Support Level: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,248.45 - 23,301.75
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 23,316.30 - 23,409.65
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,443.20 - 23,807.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,976 - 24,196.45
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,180.80 - 24,792.30
Outlook
Nifty’s repeated tests of the daily demand zone suggest that buyers are still active, but a break below 22,640 - 22,600 could trigger further downside toward 21,281. On the upside, a move above 23,250 - 23,300 could open the door for a push toward 23,800 - 24,000.
Nifty did well to hold on to crucial support. Can it hold ?Nifty did well today to bounce back from the lows of the day at 22774 to close at 22929. Holding this support is key. Under the pressure of relentless selling the market is in bear grip as of now. This is a good time to identify long term investment opportunities. Gaining immediate profits and fast recovery looks little difficult as of now. (You can not be 100% sure about the tops and bottoms of the market.) Next few months will give ample opportunities to average/add on bounce only. Mother father line supports and Resistances are the key to any investment during the bear phase of market. Patience of investors will be tested in the coming few weeks and months. Reshuffling your portfolios in favour of Fundamentally strong stocks that are going or still above 50 and 200 weeks EMA or Mother father line will be key. This is a stock pickers market. The forth that had build up post COVID rally is being cleared. Corrections are healthy sign for long term investors. Stock market is a place where money is transferred from the impatient to the patient. Pain will remain in the market for a short to medium term but hopefully great time and great rally awaits us in medium to long term. This next few weeks and probably months will test the new investors. Those who have seen a few Bull and Bear cycles know that good times do return eventually on the browsers.
Nifty Supports remain at: 22758, 22159, 21810 and finally 21302.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 23128, 23259 and 23435. Major hurdles for Bulls remain near Mother line at 23554 and Father line 23594. After a closing above 23838 only Bulls can be back into the game.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty 14th FEB 2025 – Key Support & Resistance ZonesNifty Analysis – Key Support & Resistance Zones
🔹 Support Zones (Green):
22,935 - 22,926: Strong support area where buyers may step in. A break below this level could lead to further downside.
🔹 Resistance Zones (Red):
23,296 - 23,317: First major resistance zone.
23,382 - 23,400: Another key resistance area.
23,440 - 23,479: Strong resistance—breakout above this could signal bullish momentum.
📊 Current Trend:
✅ Trading Plan:
Bullish Scenario: Watch for a breakout above 23,153 for a potential move toward 23,296+.
Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 23,019 could push the price toward 22,935 - 22,926.
📢 Keep an eye on price action near these levels and manage risk accordingly!
NIFTY - Pre - Budgetary AnalysisHello Traders,
I hope this message finds you well. I am pleased to share an insightful analysis with you, which illuminates the continuation of the market shift in accordance with the budget.
Preliminary Analysis Overview:
The correction initiated on September 27, 2024, comprises three phases and bottomed out at 22,786 on January 27, 2025 (~120D) . Given the recent decline, it is considered a correction within a correction, and we anticipate a retracement to higher levels before resuming the trend in a more significant manner.
The analysis is supported by the fact that a crucial time resistance for the down trend lies at 17 February 2025, where the market is anticipated to conclude the ongoing correction phase and initiate a new trend.
Phase I:
Following a brief rally in the pre-open and open periods, the market is expected to decline towards lower levels between 9.15 - 11 AM to the following levels.
SI: 23,300
SII: 23,140 (Stronger)
SIII: 23,041 (Potentially for extension to 23,000)
*Please note that these values are indicative and not actual.
Phase II:
Following the completion of the internal correction, the market is anticipated to resume its current interim upward trend in a more significant manner to test the 38.2 R 24,120 levels) + static support.
R I – 23,950
RII – 24,120 ~ 24,225
*These values are not actual but merely levels.
**Budget commentary that I expect: **
1. There will not be any change in corporate tax rate.
2. Personal IT may see a small slab change, accompanied by an increase in standard deduction.
3. No changes to STT, LTCG / STCG (revision(s) will undermine the integrity of the decisions from FM).
4. Reduced borrowing costs accommodating leveraged capex.
5. Incentivization (PLI, infra, agricultural & make in india).
6. Semi conductor push.
Overall, I am expecting a neutral budget – Neither hawkish nor dovish.
The markets will do what they have to….!!!
**Important Note:**
This entire analysis holds true only until the market breaks 22,786.90, although I believe not today.
** Final Verdict: **
The current uptrend is considered interim. The primary trend remains downward and is anticipated to persist further and deeper. This trend is expected to test the 38.2% support level coinciding with the 22,146 ~ 21,245 -support level.
**Strategy:**
Given the implied volatility increase, it is prudent to adapt to changes as they appear to transpire.
1. Sell until phase I.
2. Buy for phase II (Conservatives may await some confirmation with strict SL @ 22,786).
3. Exit any open position after phase II completion and await cues.
Fellow Traders,
The creation of this valuable analytical resource has necessitated countless hours of dedication and effort. If you find it useful, I humbly request your support by promoting the idea and following me (updates will be provided via this post, new posts, and through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article.
Wishing you profitable and fulfilling trading endeavors!
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must emphasize that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative that you conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial objectives and risk tolerance.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 14/02/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening possible nifty will trade in between range of 23050 to 23250 in today's session. Any major and further downside only expected if nifty starts trading below the 22950 level. Upside 23250 will act as a strong resistance for nifty. Any strong bullish rally possible if nifty gives breakout of this resistance level.
NIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 14-FEB-2025🔹 Key Levels:
📌 Resistance Zones:
🔴 Last Intraday Resistance: 23,262 – 23,306
🔴 Opening Resistance: 23,119 – 23,185
📌 Support Zones:
🟢 Opening Support/Resistance: 23,015 – 23,019
🟢 Buyer’s Support at Golden Retracement: 22,922 – 22,880
🟢 Stronger Buyer’s Support for Sideways/Consolidation: 22,677 – 22,742
📌 EMA: Price is reacting to the moving average, which could act as dynamic support/resistance.
📊 1️⃣ Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above previous close)
If NIFTY opens above 23,185:
Watch for rejection at 23,262 – 23,306: If price struggles, consider a short trade with SL above 23,320. Target: 23,185 – 23,100.
Sustained breakout of 23,306? Expect bullish momentum. Enter on a retest for targets 23,350 – 23,400.
Avoid impulsive longs at open: Wait for price to consolidate before entering trades.
💡 Pro Tip: If price rejects 23,262, sellers might step in aggressively. Consider buying Put options cautiously.
📊 2️⃣ Flat Opening (±50 points from previous close)
If NIFTY opens near 23,000 - 23,100:
Opening Support/Resistance Zone (23,015 – 23,019): This level will decide the market direction.
Break above 23,100? Expect bullish movement to 23,185. Go long above 23,105 with SL at 23,050.
Break below 23,015? Expect downside movement toward 22,922. Short below 23,010 with SL at 23,050.
💡 Pro Tip: In a flat opening, let price settle before making a decision. Patience pays!
📊 3️⃣ Gap-Down Opening (100+ points below previous close)
If NIFTY opens near 22,880 or below:
22,880 – 22,922 is a retracement support: If price holds, expect a bounce back. Go long above 22,900 with SL at 22,850.
Break below 22,880? Next major support is 22,677 – 22,742. Short below 22,870 with SL at 22,950.
If price reaches 22,677 and holds, expect a bounce. Look for buying opportunities around this level.
💡 Pro Tip: In a gap-down, avoid panic trades. Wait for proper confirmation before entering.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
📌 Never chase a trade. Let price confirm the level before entering.
📌 Use stop-losses strictly. Protect your capital at all times.
📌 Avoid trading in the No Trade Zone. This is where stop-losses get hunted easily.
📌 Monitor IV (Implied Volatility). If IV is high, options premiums might be inflated. Consider spreads instead of naked options.
🔥 Summary & Conclusion
✅ Key Resistance: 23,119 – 23,185 / 23,262 – 23,306
✅ Key Support: 23,015 – 23,019 / 22,922 – 22,880 / 22,677 – 22,742
✅ Gap-Up: Watch resistance at 23,262. Breakout = bullish, rejection = short.
✅ Flat Opening: Wait for breakout/breakdown from Opening Support before entering.
✅ Gap-Down: 22,880 is crucial. Holding = bounce, breakdown = more downside.
🎯 Stick to the plan, follow discipline, and manage your risks!
⚠ Disclaimer: I am NOT a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(13/02/2025)Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in banknifty. Any bullish rally only expected if banknifty starts trading and sustain above 49550 level. Further downside expected below the 49450 level. This downside can goes upto 49050 and extend next 400-500+ points in case starts trading below 48950 level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 13/02/2025Today will be flat or slightly gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty sustain above 23050 level then only expected upside rally upto the 23250 level. This level will act as a strong upside resistance for today's session. Any bullish rally can give reversal from this level. Below 23000 level sharp downside expected in today's session.
NIFTY 13th Feb 2025 Above the yellow zone → Bullish momentum is likely, meaning the price may rise toward the red resistance zones.
Below the yellow zone → Bears might take control, pushing the price toward the green support zones.
Green zones → Strong support levels, where price could bounce.
Red zones → Resistance levels, where price might face selling pressure.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 13-Feb-2025
🔹 Key Levels:
📌 Resistance: 23,205 / 23,298 – 23,332 (Last Intraday Resistance)
📌 Support: 22,970 / 22,873 – 22,893 / 22,660 / 22,508
📌 No Trade Zone: 23,049 - 23,103 (Avoid trading inside this range)
📊 1️⃣ Gap-Up Opening (100+ points above previous close)
If NIFTY opens above 23,205:
Watch for rejection at 23,298 – 23,332: If price struggles, consider a short trade with SL above 23,350. Target: 23,205 – 23,100.
Sustained breakout of 23,332? Expect bullish momentum. Enter on a retest for targets 23,400 – 23,450.
Avoid impulsive longs at open: Wait for price to consolidate before entering trades.
💡 Pro Tip: If price rejects 23,298, sellers might step in aggressively. Consider buying Put options cautiously.
📊 2️⃣ Flat Opening (±50 points from previous close)
If NIFTY opens near 23,000 - 23,100:
No Trade Zone (23,049 - 23,103): Avoid trading here. Wait for price to break out clearly.
Break above 23,103? Expect bullish movement to 23,205. Go long above 23,105 with SL at 23,050.
Break below 23,049? Expect downside movement toward 22,970. Short below 23,045 with SL at 23,100.
💡 Pro Tip: In a flat opening, let price settle before making a decision. Patience pays!
📊 3️⃣ Gap-Down Opening (100+ points below previous close)
If NIFTY opens near 22,873 or below:
22,873 as support? If price holds, expect a bounce back. Go long above 22,900 with SL at 22,850.
Break below 22,873? Next major support is 22,660. Short below 22,870 with SL at 22,950.
If price reaches 22,660 and holds, expect a bounce. Look for buying opportunities around this level.
💡 Pro Tip: In a gap-down, avoid panic trades. Wait for proper confirmation before entering.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
📌 Never chase a trade. Let price confirm the level before entering.
📌 Use stop-losses strictly. Protect your capital at all times.
📌 Avoid trading in the No Trade Zone. This is where stop-losses get hunted easily.
📌 Monitor IV (Implied Volatility). If IV is high, options premiums might be inflated. Consider spreads instead of naked options.
🔥 Summary & Conclusion
✅ Key Resistance: 23,205 / 23,298 – 23,332
✅ Key Support: 22,970 / 22,873 – 22,893 / 22,660 / 22,508
✅ No Trade Zone: 23,049 - 23,103
✅ Gap-Up: Watch resistance at 23,298. Breakout = bullish, rejection = short.
✅ Flat Opening: Wait for breakout/breakdown from No Trade Zone before entering.
✅ Gap-Down: 22,873 is crucial. Holding = bounce, breakdown = more downside.
🎯 Stick to the plan, follow discipline, and manage your risks!
⚠ Disclaimer: I am NOT a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
NIFTY 12 FEB 2025This chart shows support (green levels) and resistance (red levels):
Analysis of the Chart
Resistance Levels (Red)
1 . 23,139.90
2. 23,178.00 - 23,193.75
Support Levels (Green)
The price is currently testing support at around 22,929.95 - 22,920.60.
If this support holds, we may see a bounce back up.
If this level breaks, the price could fall to the next support zone at 22,802.60 - 22,783.20.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 12/02/2025Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening if it's sustain above 23050 level then expected reversal upto the 23250 level. 23250 level will act a strong resistance for today's session. Possible nifty will goes further downside from this level. Important support for today's session is 23000-23050 zone. Sharp downside expected below the 23000 level.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 12.02.2025Tuesday’s session saw Nifty opening flat, made high of 23,390.05, it failed to hold near demand zones and plunged to a low of 22,986.65. It closed at 23,071.80, losing 310 points from the previous close. The Weekly and Daily Trends (50 SMA) remain sideways, indicating a lack of clear direction.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 22,642.60 - 22,910.15 (Tested)
Near Minor Demand/Support Zone (30m): 22,786.90 - 22,843.30
Far Support Level: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,248.45 - 23,301.75
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 23,316.30 - 23,409.65
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,443.20 - 23,807.30
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,976 - 24,196.45
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,180.80 - 24,792.30
Outlook
Nifty’s sharp decline below 23,100 suggests increased bearish momentum. The next key support lies around 22,642 - 22,900, and a break below this zone could push it further down. On the upside, 23,250 - 23,400 remains the immediate resistance.
Nifty Review & Analysis - DailyPrice Action :
Nifty closed at 23072, down 1.32% after a sharp 200 points drop in 30 min, hitting an intraday low of 22986.
Technicals:
Nifty opened below previous day’s close and saw continued selling and saw sudden drop of 200 points in 2nd half and closed at 23072 down 1.32% forming a big Red candle suggesting weakness closing below 10,20,50,200 DEMA.
The momentum indicator, RSI - Relative Strength Index was down to 41
Support/Resistance
Major Support 22800
Immediate Support 22950
Immediate Resistance 23250
Major Resistance 23400
Trend:
Overall Trend is Bearish
Options Data:
Highest CE OI was at 23500, 23400 followed by 23300 - Resistance
Highest PE OI was at 22700 followed by 22800 - Support
23300CE 23400CE and 23500CE saw major addition signaling Shorts added
22700PE saw PE addition indicating support
PCR is 0.6 which indicates Bearishness
Futures Data:
FII Long/Short ratio improved to 14.5%/85.5%
FII exited 4K Longs in Future at 38K and Shorts intact at 1.9L contracts
Nifty Futures price was in down -1.4%, a slight decrease in price alongside slight increase in Open Interest (OI) typically indicates slight Bearishness
Outlook for Next Session:
Nifty is weak below 23000
Approch:
Short at higher levels for 22700 tgt
Wait for today’s High or Low to break and sustaines for further direction
My Trades & Positions:
Holding shorts from 23250 levels booked half at 23000
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 11/02/2025Today will be gap up opening expected in nifty near 23400 level. After opening if nifty sustain above 23350 level then possible upside rally upto 23500 level. 23500 will act as an immediate resistance for today's session. Expected downside from this level. Major downside expected in nifty below 23300 level.
Nifty Review & Analysis - DailyPrice Action :
Nifty saw selling from the opening to close below 23400 but managed to bounce from 23300 levels.
Technicals:
Nifty opened below previous day’s close and saw continued selling to find support/buying around 23300 levels and saw slight pull back above 23350 levels forming a Bearish candle closing below 10,20,50,200 DEMA.
The momentum indicators, RSI - Relative Strength Index was down to 47
Support/Resistance
Major Support 23300
Immediate Support 23150
Immediate Resistance 23450
Major Resistance 24600
Trend:
Overall Trend is Bearish
Options Data:
Highest CE OI was at 23700, 23600 followed by 23600 - Resistance
Highest PE OI was at 23000 followed by 23100 - Support
23700CE 23600CE and 23500CE saw major addition signaling Shorts added
23200Pe saw unwinding indicating weakness and 23000pe saw addition indicating support
PCR is 0.6 which indicates Bearishness
Futures Data:
FII Long/Short ratio improved to 16.5%/83.5%
FII exited 4K Longs in Future at 38K and Shorts intact at 1.9L contracts
Nifty Futures price was in negative, a slight decrease in price alongside slight increase in Open Interest (OI) typically indicates slight Bearishness
Outlook for Next Session:
Nifty is weak below 23300
Approch:
Waiting for move up or down
Wait for today’s High or Low to break and sustaines for further direction
My Trades & Positions:
No Positions
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 11.02.2025Monday’s session saw Nifty opening negative, making an initial high of 23,568.60, but gradually sliding down into the 75-minute Demand Zone (23,327 - 23,381.60). It touched a day low of 23,316.30 before closing at 23,381.60, marking a 178-point loss from the previous close. The Weekly and Daily Trends (50 SMA) remain sideways, indicating indecisiveness in the market.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Minor Demand/Support Zone (15m): 23,141 - 23,205.70
Far Demand/Support Zone (30m): 22,786.90 - 22,843.30
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21,791.95 - 22,910.15 (Tested)
Far Support Level: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 23,557.80 - 23,591.25
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 23,644.10 - 23,694.50
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,976 - 24,196.45
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 24,601.75 - 24,782.15
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,180.80 - 24,792.30
Outlook
Nifty is struggling to hold key support levels, with the 23,300 zone acting as a crucial demand area. If this level fails, we could see a deeper correction towards 23,100 - 23,000. On the upside, 23,600 - 23,700 remains a strong resistance zone. A sustained move above 23,700 may indicate bullish momentum, while a break below 23,300 could trigger further downside.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 10/02/2025Flat opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty starts trading and sustain above 23600 level then expected upside rally upto 23800+ level in opening session. Major downside rally expected below 23550 level. This downside can goes upto the 23400 level.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 10.02.2025Friday’s session was highly volatile, with Nifty opening positive and making an initial high of 23,683.90 before dropping to 23,493.60. It then rallied again to a day high of 23,694.50, entering the 5-minute Supply Zone, only to reverse sharply to a low of 23,443.20, taking support at the 15-minute Demand Zone. A partial recovery followed, and Nifty closed at 23,559.95, losing 43 points over the previous close. Both the Weekly & Daily Trends (50 SMA) remain sideways.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Demand/Support Zone (75m): 23,327 - 23,381.60
Far Minor Demand/Support Zone (15m): 23,141 - 23,205.70
Far Demand/Support Zone (30m): 22,786.90 - 22,843.30
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21,791.95 - 22,910.15 (Tested)
Far Support Level: 21,281.45 (Low of 4th June 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 20,769.50 - 20,950
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (15m): 23,644.10 - 23,694.50
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 23,976 - 24,196.45
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 24,601.75 - 24,782.15
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,180.80 - 24,792.30
Outlook
Nifty remains range-bound, facing resistance near 23,700 while finding support at 23,450. A break above 23,700 may lead to a move towards 24,000, while failing to hold above 23,450 could trigger further downside. Stay cautious in this sideways market!
Nifty's Battle Between Bears and Bulls & S&P 500 resistance test#Nifty50 wrapped up the week at 23,560, marking a 80-point increase from the previous week's close. It reached a high of 23,807 and a low of 23,222. As predicted last week, Nifty traded within the range of 24,000-22,950, and looking ahead, I anticipate the index will continue moving within the range of 24,000-23,050 next week.
Currently, the monthly and weekly timeframes are both bearish, while the daily timeframe shows a slight bullish bias. This indicates that the bears remain in control, and they will likely seize every bounce as an opportunity to initiate short positions. I still believe that the 22,400/22,500 level is critical, as it presents an opportunity for the bulls to establish a base and potentially push Nifty higher.
The BJP's victory in the Delhi assembly elections could have a positive impact on the market come Monday, offering a window to offload positions and create fresh shorts. My focus will remain on stocks that are either building a strong base or demonstrating resilience in this otherwise negative market environment. These hidden gems, or 'dark horses,' could emerge as the true winners in the near future.
On the global front, the S&P 500 closed at 6,025, a mere 14 points down from the previous week's close, with a high of 6,101 and a low of 5,923. Over the past three weeks, the S&P 500 bulls have repeatedly attempted to break the strong resistance level at 6,100, but they’ve failed to maintain momentum above it. A decisive close above 6,100 is now critical for the rally to gain steam and target levels at 6,142, 6,225, and 6,376. If this resistance holds, the bears are ready to pounce, and we could see a test of support levels around 5,850—about 3% lower than the current level.
It’s a crucial battle ahead, and while I’m rooting for the bulls, my focus is on the bears. Let’s see who comes out on top!
Can Nifty overcome Mother, Father and the Trendline resistances?With the results in Delhi elections that will suit the market fervor can Nifty break the triple whammy of Mother, Father and Trendline resistances which are not allowing it to fly? The answer to the question can be yes. But what is important is if Nifty can sustain the opening that it might get and hold on to the levels? This will depend again on FII activity. FII as we know are on the selling side continuously. Also there is an upcoming New Income Tax bill to be tabled. Investors will wait and see the action taken on the LTCG and STCG taxes on the income. No bad news can be a good news with respect to this aspect. After the income tax relief received and RBI rate cut.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 23435, 23177 and 22967. If the major support at 22967 is broken there can be a free fall in the market till the levels of 22758, 22159 or even lower as depicted in the chart.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 22619 (Father Line, 200 days EMA), 22658 (Mother line, 50 days EMA), 22838 (Major trend line resistance). If 22838 is crossed and we get a closing above it we can see the levels of 24084, 24223 and 24482. For levels above 24482 we will have to get a weekly closing above the same first.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.