Niftytrendanalysis
So What is happening in Nifty? What to expect this week?Certainly the global headwinds in banking and inflation are rocking the markets all over the world. India with strong economic momentum is a bright spot in global economy but it is still feeling the effect and can continue to feel so in the short to medium term context. In the long run Indian story certainly looks at good valuation. As soon as US Fed signals for a Pause Indian indices will certainly pick up the lost momentum and range bound trading sessions.
The pattern that is forming right now on Nifty is called Base Formation pattern and certainly in past whenever we have seen such patterns we see a 500 to 1000 point rally. At times the base formation pattern fails too and goes for further consolidation at a step below. The step below in this case can be 16747 level if this base breaks or 16347 level as we can read the chart right now.
In case of taking off from this base the major resistance can be near 17543/17532 levels where we have 50 and 200 days EMA. If these levels are crossed the next resistance can be 18170 to 18260 range. If Nifty launches from here the relief rally can be seen. Next week and monthly closing above 50/200 EMA is required for rally to become significant in any way.
nifty50 spot view in dcbNSE:NIFTY presently trading at around major support zone and as well as 50% fibonacci retracement zone, hence we may see a reversal move from hereon.
Disclaimer - This chart analysis is only for educational purpose. Do proper research before trade/investment or consult with your financial advisor. This expressed opinion/view/analysis isn't a trade/investment advice/recommendation. SEBI unregistered independent trader/analyst.
Nifty ended the day just below 200 Hours EMA.The rampant run that Nifty started after making a base near 17255 has seen it make a high of 17799 and correct from there to close below 200 Hour's EMA at 17711(200 Hour's EMA is at 17716). Close above 17716 would have been great for the momentum to continue. Now that Nifty has closed below 200 Hour's EMA, Nifty probably will need a support to start next leg of Bull run. If by chance due to global factors Nifty can open with a gap above 200 Hour's EMA it can continue the bull run again with same momentum. Hourly RSI is at 65.7 which has corrected from 3 weeks high of 74.83. This also indicates need of little bit of consolidation before further bull run. Current squeezing pattern indicates peak 18100 or 18400 if the momentum continues.
Important Supports: 17681, 17559, 17435 and finally 17255.
Important Resistances: 17716, 17802, 17923 and finally 18007.
Most choppy Day of The Year and where it can lead usWe saw one of the most choppy day of the year 2023 and it has brought us to a junction from where NIFTY can go either side the resistances on the upper side will be 17733, 17780, 17933 and finally 17982. Supports for Nifty will be near 17550, 17505, 17407 and final support of 17353. Nifty strongly rejected the level of 17353 and shot upwards although closed in Red (Negative) but this gives hope to investors that 'Hammer candle' formed during the penultimate hour of trade yesterday can turn things around. with US Fed Rate hike in expected lines IT will try to push the Nifty up. We all know what is pushing the Nifty downwards.
Nifty Trade Setup for 16th June - Expiry day Trade SsetupThe US Federal Reserve announced a 75-basis point rate hike on Wednesday, leaving the doors open for another rate increase of that magnitude, and US Markets rallied as investors looked favourably on the central bank’s tougher stance against inflation. The rate hike is in line with the expectations and has already been factored in and we can expect VIX to go down today.
Intra-day
After a sharp fall on expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, Index took support at 15,650 and is trading in the range of 15,650 – 15,850 with high volatility and a range break is required for a good move with momentum in either direction, else we may see a rangebound expiry today. The index is currently in the pullback phase after an impulsive down-move and can face resistance at 16,080 and 16,180 (Half Bat Pattern). Index is likely to open with a gap up around resistance and we will wait for 30-45 minutes before making any positions.
Nifty Update for 1st June 2022As discussed in our previous analysis, the Nifty 50 Index gave a breakout of the key resistance at 16,400 (both static and trendline resistance) levels after forming a triple bottom at the base. The Index halted a three-day winning run on Tuesday and formed a Doji candle on daily TF, suggesting a temporary halt in upside momentum and is currently in a pullback phase of the upward impulse move.
After a breakout one should always look for a pullback for the momentum to continue in the same direction. The key resistance which was broken during the week will now act as good support and the index could retest/consolidate around 16300-400 levels again before it prepares for the next leg up. The overall trend looks positive from a short-term perspective. A fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the index breaks out of the 16,700 range (range since last 2 days), following which it above which it could move up to 17,000 levels.
Nifty update for 30th May 2022In yet another week of consolidation, the Nifty 50 Index stayed in a broader range of 15,700-16,400, ending near the upper edge. The index is on the verge of taking out key resistance at 16,400. The volatility also declined during the week. India VIX fell by 7.01% to 21.48. The index has stayed in the same range for three weeks in a row now, and it is making visible attempts to inch higher.
The index has stopped making lower lows and formed a strong base at 15,700 levels (‘triple bottom’) and is currently trading near an important resistance of 16,400 – which will likely be broken with a gap up opening today and is expected to act as support going forward. Breakout of this level (after pullback) will confirm a trend reversal after a good accumulation phase. This will also activate the XABCD pattern with potential targets of 17,000 and 17500/600. If the index fails to sustain 16,400, it will go back to the range in which it has been trading for the last 3 weeks.
Nifty 50 Updates for next weekWeek ahead
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Nifty 50 Index has been stuck in a sideways range over the last two weeks. Index is oscillating between 16,800 and 17,500 and the same levels are likely to remain crucial for the upcoming week. As discussed in our previous weekly analysis (April 24, 2022), Nifty 50 Index formed a double bottom at 16800 levels (Important support for the week – Half bat pattern) and then traded in the range over the week with high volatility. Index opened with gaps on all sessions with trending moves in both directions during last 2 sessions. While the market stayed largely flat on a week-on-week basis, volatility increased. India VIX rose 5.79 per cent to 19.42.
Lately on Friday, US markets witnessed another technology led sell off. India 50 USD / SGX Nifty Index ended significantly lower, and we are likely to open with a gap down on Monday.
On the news front, the global markets are set to react to the US Fed Reserve decision slated to come in the middle of the coming week. Index heavyweights like Reliance, HDFC and Kotak Mahindra Bank will be coming up with their results during the week. Outcome of these events could possibly establish a trend (in either direction) which has been missing since last two weeks.
Can the Index rise past 17,500 and reclaim 18,000 again? (XABCD will be activated above 17500) Or will it break below 16,800 and see a steeper fall towards 16200 levels? (ABCD pattern will get activated on breakdown of 16800 levels). Join us for more real-time updates.
Nifty still in a downtrend butMy Analysis of Nifty
Looking at the Open interest data 18000 has a very strong resistance with very new call writers at 18000, 18050, 18100,18200, 18300 levels.
PCR is 0.5 suggesting that its oversold
Max Pain at 18000
Support shown at 17923(100 day moving average on hourly charts)
PCR and support suggest that the market might open in the green tomorrow, however, trend continues to be downtrend so data suggests it may remain remain flat tomorrow, upside seems very difficult.
Also, FII were net sellers with -2704.77 crores and DII were also net sellers: -195.07 which suggests weakness
Will be looking for opportunities to Sell calls on uptick. Short with caution
I do expect the closing to be around 17900-18050
Disclaimer: Please trade based on your own analysis and protect your capital
Weekly nifty analysis!Waiting for Nifty to break out this week for taking fresh long positions. It has been resisted multiple times and has created a trendline. A strong breakout will lead to continuation of the bull run. While bank nifty has already given breakout, hoping nifty does the same.
The down move from the all time high, is just a retracement when looked on a higher timeframe. It has tested the important 38.2% fibo line but could not break it. Hence, a continuation of upward movement is expected.
Important levels for the upcoming week:
Resistance at:
17665
17750
17860
Support at:
17320
17150
16928
NIFTY CORRECTION WAVE OVER?The Chart is self explanatory by itself.
Green rectangle - Demand Zone
Red rectangle - Supply Zone
Space between the two blue lines will be considered as no trading zone by me.
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Nifty 8th November SetupNo trades taken in Nifty on 4th November as the market traded in a really narrow range for the time given for muhurat trading.
Nifty 8th November Levels:
Buy Above: 17950
Sell Below: 17900
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Nifty 4th November Muhurat Tradng SetupBeware, market timings tomorrow - 6:15 p.m - 7:15 p.m
Nifty broke our chanel with a Gap-up and then following the strong rejection zone and weak buyers cme back into the channel.
Trades on both CE & PE side, gave some good profits.
Mostly narrow range trade today
Levels for 4th november Muhurat Trading :
Buy above : 17835
Sell Below : 17740
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