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Bitcoin: BTCUSD A Decisive Night Lies AheadBitcoin BTCUSD Decisive Night Ahead Bitcoin is now approaching the last major dynamic resistance potential between here and the highs on both Bitfinex and Coinbase charts - though not on Bitstamp. We've seen it just under double so far, gaining 5250 points on Bitfinex from the 6000 low. It can go one of two ways from here: 20:13gmt/15:13est Update and Bull Set-Up First off, was really looking to stay long up to the next line of fixed resistance at 11438 on Bitfinex today but so far the first line at 11257 has proved too much with an intra day high at 11250 so the long from 10840 today got closed out for 400 or so points profit on the first test of the line. Since then there has been a 200 point gain on another quick long from 10900 to 11100 - around 600 points or so. Now it's getting trickier again. The hourly candle shows pretty much a spinning top with pin above as long as it is deep below...indecision, sideways movement likely now...can move sideways to the big dynamic and then comes the crunch. It's Bitcoin, boys. It can always go either way. So we need to cover both the 2 alternatives...The Bull Break: Bitcoin finds buyers enough out of far East or when it opens (or even earlier) to push above the big dynamic and to hold and not fizzzle out by 2am gmt/21:00est - that would be a super-bullish outcome and if it comes at any point tonight must be followed with stops below the dynamic when first broken line by 100 points or so or alternatively, depending on price action, can wait for retest from above once broken ... This break to the upside is a big ask - may well prove too much on this first attempt. But it's Bitcoin. It's done stranger things before - it really can go either way from here. The Second alternative from here: The Bear Break: We need to keep in mind what could still develop from here - which is that Coinbase is leading and saying the rally is done ....and now this last few hours is just unspent upward momentum now running out of steam...if so, the chart will tell us by Bitcoin not being able to push higher above that last big line of last dynamic resistance on Coinbase - so this thing needs watching more carefully than ever for the next few hours...fairly obviously it needs more buyers now if, as we did in the chat room, you bought the dip back to 10900ish - the worry it that it grinds higher slowly and with no real power behind it as we move towards the far east opening...and then tops out ...we just need to be very vigilant tonight - and if it does recoil from the dynamic holding back price on Coinbase and then it goes on to break the last dynamic support line on Bitfinex just around 10600 now ...that would be the signal for swing traders to exit too and also for day traders to start opening short positions on the next rally back towards the now broken trend line. It should fall away to 9500 and then if this fails to 8900 - and has the potential to break much lower still...depends on the shape of the decline - this is the 'bad ' side of the Bitcoin coin, potentially. May never happen but forewarned is forearmed. Time as always will tell us the answer. We follow. To do that we have to see the upper dynamic broken to move back to full-on bull mode from here. Until then we need to tread carefully if still long here. Try not to second guess it too much but be ready to follow the next big signal coldly either way when it comes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
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