Nike
Nike Showing Us They Can Just Do ItWith an average volume of 6.3 million, Nike Inc is continuing to soar to new heights in the markets which
is probably spurred on by sales being up 41% in the first quarter of 2019.
Looking at the technical side of things, we can see from the weekly chart that price has
been clearly trending to the upside over the long-term.
Price was in a strong bull trend from March 2009 from a low of $9.56. Over the next 6 years,
price catapulted over 590% making easy returns for investors holding onto Nike Inc shares
over this period as price reached $68.19.
With every huge trend, there will come a period where price will become exhausted and either
pull back deeply or enter a long period of consolidation. This will generally take place before price
resumes the trend or may even result in a complete reversal. In this case, price entered a long period
of consolidation lasting 2 years and 5 months from December 2015 to May 2018. The consolidation was
held up by using support in the form of the $50 round number, which is a psychological support zone.
As mentioned, long periods of consolidation usually follows huge trends, the same is true the other
way round. Huge trends usually follow long periods of consolidation. We may just be at the early
stages of a strong bull trend in this stock.
When price broke out in May 2018 we saw a strong move to the upside, then price pulled back sharply
and retested resistance turned support in December 2018. This support level gave price a push up once
again and has since been creating higher highs and higher lows. The 50 sma has been used as support along
the way which also helped price escape from the recent consolidation zone breaking above $90.
Nike Inc is now creating new all-time highs and may continue to climb for some time.
One thing to bear in mind is that we have the $100 round number which is a strong psychological support/resistance zone.
We may see price comfortably move through this level or reverse at that point or go into consolidation.
We can never predict how price will behave, so it’s best for traders to just wait for price to break through $100 before looking for long opportunities.
Price is just over 500 points away from $100 so we may not have to wait too long before buying shares.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NIKE 1D BULLISH RANGE BREAKOUTRanges are repeatable trading chart pattern.
Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Nike updateNike market cap $138.51B and is part of Dow Jones. Price approaching all time highs again. Recent daily candles show price finds it difficult to go higher, though there is space to overbought on a daily.
4 hour though quite overbought and candles showing potential reversal here. Great risk reward for a short here.
Good Luck!
FOOTLOCKER LONG INTO EARNINGSWe have here a retailer with a P/E AND P/S that puts the rest of the market to shame. We HAVE to ask ourselves when do the value investors step in? I believe that question will be answered on AUG.23rd on the back of this companies earnings. They lowered expectations and with 60% of their sales coming from Nike and with Nike beating earnings this is a good bet. I see a 17% upside on the back of good earnings. Stop loss at 36, Take profit at 47. Good luck.
Elliott Wave View Favors More Upside in Nike (NKE)Short term Elliott wave view in Nike (NKE) calls the rally from June 3 low unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from June 3 low, wave 1 ended at 78.58 and wave 2 pullback ended at 77.58. Wave 3 ended at 84.23 and subdivides as another impulse structure in lesser degree. Wave 4 pullback ended at 82.47, and wave 5 ended at 84.38 which also subdivides as an impulse in lesser degree. The 5 waves move higher ended wave (A) and the stock is now correcting cycle from June 3 low in wave (B)
The correction is proposed to unfold as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Potential area where wave (B) can end is 50 – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave (A). This area comes at 79.69 – 80.54 where buyers can appear for more upside. We don’t like selling the stock.
NIKE 1D COLLAPSINGPotential Market Problem with Chinese Tariffs
Market Place - 5 Dow Stocks with High Chinese Exposure with 10% revenues in China
Apple, Boeing, 3M, Nike, Procter & Gamble
Market Realist - 2014 28% Nike shoes sold in China
34% Nike Apparel sold in China
GQ - 2017 19% Nike shoes sold in China
1D chart
Descending Triangle chart pattern
Weekly support levels shown
Triangle bottom and Weekly support level create a support zone
Watch for a candle close below this zone
Watch for a break-hook-go pattern on smaller time frame
Decreasing volume and rising price shows buyers weakening creates a bearish bias
Will NKE Push to $100? Last post: September 17th 2018. See chart .
Review: Price had just cleared $80 and was looking strong for further bullish action.
Update: Price instead pulled back to $67 found support, bounced and is now trading back above $87.
Conclusion: Patience needed until a break and close above the March high to suggest a bull trend continuation.
Sublime Trading
Nike trajectory - Med term target $54 in 2019?Thank for viewing,
Disclosure; I haven't been tracking Nike until a couple of days ago and thought I would post this to see if I can get some feedback. I am not presently able to short trade this share so am just watching for now. I was drawn to it by recent news about presumptive Np.1 NBA draft pick Zion Williamson's and minor injury caused by a Nike shoe blowout. My analysis does in no way hinge on this story, but it can't help the Nike share price and it may just be enough to allow the previous swing high to not be exceeded. A lot of people (who aren't top level sports talent) can place themselves in Zion's shoes (like literally).
I would also point to Nike's increasingly politicised marketing campaigns as a cause for investor concern (personally I am a supporter or Colin Kaepernick's protest and would like to see him play again) simply because they have decided to place a talented Sportsman who isn't presently playing at high levels at the centre of their marketing campaign. You don't need to wear the best designed sports shoe to protest inequality. There is a risk that Nike's huge (31% of costs) marketing budget has become at least partially un-linked to mastery in the game. This perceived link had, until now, served them very well.
Air Jordans were the highest selling shoe because almost everyone wanted to emulate or be associated with Michael Jordan's absolutely dominant and universally recognised basketball mastery. Even sales of these have slowed recently (www.thestreet.com).
These are sideline issues compared to the increasing miscompare between Nike's share price and dividend yields. in late 2017 Nike's PE ratio went from 22 in August and 25 in November to 62 in Feb 2018 and 65.57 in August 2018 (www.macrotrends.net) also (ycharts.com). This is over-extended bubble territory. When PE ratios get too high and EPS fall investors are understandably less willing to accept share price volatility (which increases), so any price weakness should result in a steep selloff.
This is a conditional post; I have shown on the chart what I expect to happen over the coming weeks. If the price and RSI both show a lower high and the MACD MA crossover holds and heads downwards for the zero line I think a deep correction is in play. If these three things happen, I would say $54 per share is conservative. Results are expected in a few days at the end of February, expect the high of $86.04 to not be exceeded and the results to be insufficient to support such an inflated PE ratio (which, of course, hinges on very bullish expectations of future growth). Even if Nike posts expected or above expected earnings guidance I expect there to be a sell-off as investors realise how over-extended the share price has become.
This was seen in 2018: "Investors weren't all that impressed. 10 percent revenue growth ... it really needed to be a little bit more than that," Stacey Widlitz, president of consulting firm SW Retail Advisors, told CNBC (www.cnbc.com)."
My view is, of course, coloured by a an increasingly bearish view of the S&P500 and expectations of a European (Italy in recession, Germany likely to follow with GDP growth currently at 0%) and US recession possibly apparent shortly. Most analysts are calling a 2020 US recession. I just think it may be brought forward a few months. Nike has increased revenue by raising prices for its goods, something that may shortly become unsustainable. I will be following with interest. Good luck everyone and protect those funds.