NIKKEI 225 INDEX: Breaks Out! TP1 Done – Higher Targets AwaitNIKKEI 225 INDEX Analysis:
The Nikkei Index shows promising bullish momentum on the 15-minute timeframe, with the first target (TP1) successfully reached using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator. This long trade setup suggests a potential continuation towards higher targets as buying pressure remains strong.
Key Trade Details:
Entry Level: 38,384.25
Target Levels:
TP1: 38,544.16 (Achieved ✅)
TP2: 38,802.91
TP3: 39,061.66
TP4: 39,221.57
Stop Loss: 38,254.88
Market Insight:
The Nikkei’s breakout reflects positive sentiment in the Japanese equity market, likely influenced by global economic factors and investor optimism. This upward movement aligns with a strengthening technical trend, supporting the possibility of reaching the remaining targets if the bullish momentum sustains.
Summary:
With TP1 already hit, traders eye the remaining targets. A tight stop loss below the recent breakout level offers protection while allowing for gains as the trade progresses towards TP2 and beyond.
Nikkeisignals
NIKKEI is starting the new bullish phase.NIKKEI (NI225) gave us the most accurate buy entry we could get last time (September 10, see chart below) as we bought right above the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the price immediately rebounded to the 0.786 Fib of its July 11 High:
The symmetry with the September - December 2023 fractal continues to be striking, which is also evident on the 1D RSI which made a 2nd bounce on the Symmetrical Pivot Zone as the previous fractal did on December 08 2023.
The price bounced on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the December 2023 rally that followed, reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension before the next short-term consolidation.
As a result, we can upgrade our medium-term Target to 43000, which is still considerably below the 1.786 Fib.
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NIKKEI 2nd phase of rally starting.NIKKEI (NI225) couldn't have given us a more reliable bullish continuation signal that our last call (August 14, see chart below), as it hit exactly our 39000 Target and then pulled-back:
The rejection took place on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the, above 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection on October 13 2023, which is the Megaphone fractal we used last time to come up with the buy signal.
So far, the new correction almost reached the 0.5 Fib, so it is good enough for a buy, considering also the fact that the 1D RSI hit again the Symmetrical Pivot Zone, which is where the late October 2023 decline bottomed and started a new rally to the Megaphone's top.
As a result, we turn bullish again today, targeting 42450 (the July 11 High).
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NIKKEI Still bullish short-term.NIKKEI (NI225) has more than recovered all of last week's losses and is about to have its most important test of this rebound, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The current Megaphone resembles the one in 2023, which had one last rejection just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and after it broke above the 1D MA50, before the High was tested. Our short-term Target is 39000.
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The Nikkei snaps a 6-day losing steakNikkei futures found some stability on Monday around the May high, before going on to snap a 6-day losing streak. The daily RSI (2) was oversold to further suggest mean reversion could be due. And with Wall Street showing signs of stability ahead of tech earnings, we suspect a bounce could be due.
The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI spent some time in oversold before a 2-bar bullish reversal triggered a rebound at a key support zone. Bulls could seek dips within Monday's range on the assumption of a break above 40,000, with a minimum upside target of 40,500 in mind.
If sentiment improves from here, perhaps a move to 41k could be on the cards near the June VPOC and gap resistance.
NIKKEI Rather long way until it bottoms but then +60% upside!NIKKEI (NI225) offers a very consistent long-term pattern when you look at it on the 1W time-frame. As you can see periodically, every roughly 3 years it peaks and then starts to correct through a Channel Down pattern towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
It was only fairly recently (in relative 1W terms) that the index sought and found support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in October 2023, which started the rally leading to the March 2024 peak. If it follows the corrective Channel Down pattern that has been in effect for the past 9 years (since June 2015), then we may be a long way until we find a bottom.
The process doesn't need to be an aggressive one, in fact the last Channel Down that started in February 2021 bottomed in a long but very steady manner in March 2022 and even had a long bottoming process that lasted until January 2023 before the recent massive rally was initiated.
The 1W RSI patterns among those fractals are similar, so far in fact it is similar to the mid 2023 one that, as we mentioned above, 'only' corrected to the 1W MA50. As a result, we are expecting the current pull-back to extend at least as low as (near) the 1W MA50. If it breaks, we will only buy after it makes contact with the 1W MA200.
The Target process has also been very consistent throughout those 9 years, with each rise from the bottom being roughly over +60%. As a result, from the level the index bottoms, our Target will be at +60%.
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NIKKEI Is it worth buying here?Nikkei (NI225) is about to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time as a Resistance, following the bearish break-out on April 15, which was its first breach since November 02 2023. This is a very consistent behavioral pattern with both of the previous two corrections of the 2-year Channel Up pattern.
As you can see, reclaiming the 1D MA50 wasn't enough for either correction to make the index resume the uptrend, even closing above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level didn't guarantee it. What did form the index' bottom however, was the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold limit (green circle).
At the moment the index is rebounding off such an RSI test. This means that this time we may see the recovery much earlier, so once we close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will turn bullish again, targeting 46000 (Channel's top and below the minimum +31.73% of Bullish Legs patterns).
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Nikkei index analysis. Swing trade signal!!!Hello everyone. i want share my idea about Nikkei index.
First i want introduce what is that index. Nikkei (Nikkei 225 stock average) is a price-weighted index which composed of Japan top 225 companies which traded on the Tokyo stock exchange.
This index was long time almost 2 years in bullish trend but Japan government decide to take care for yen and they are going to cut rates which will have effect at the index, i think hedge funds will take their profits soon and if it will not change trend we will get big correction which i think is perfect at the moment for catch it.
if i have fundamental reason for that i will try to short it from my marked point which is at 40174, here i have resistance and at resistance we see fair value gap, if we will use Fibonacci addition it shows perfect entry point exact at resistance and 4h fair value gap.
I am going to open here swing trade, my entry point will be 40174, stop loss at 40749 and take profit who knows? i will follow price action if i will be right. if trend will not change i am waiting only short signal from that index i think it will be correction an the correction need to be huge.
Always make your own research!!! manage your risk!!!
NIKKEI Gradually turning bearish for the next 3 months.Nikkei (NI225) has given us one of the best long-term trades last year (May 26 2022, see chart below), as we gave a signal for the most optimal buy entry one could expect, on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 it has now surpassed 40000:
The question is obvious: what do we do from here, especially after the remarkable bullish start to 2024? To answer that, we have to to go to the logarithmic scale on the 1W time-frame and observe the Channel Up since the June 2012 bottom.
The biggest fact is that the current bullish leg of the Channel (since the March 2022 Low), has already surpassed the roughly +63% magnitude of the previous two legs by +3%. This suggests that we are forming the current Higher High but the 1W RSI hasn't yet made a Higher High of its own, so the rally may be extended for a few weeks more.
What has been very consistent though during this 12-year Channel Up, is the tops as identified by the Sine Waves. The next Wave Top is on January 2025 and that would be the time to sell towards a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test again. Nikkei though has formed the previous Highs on Double Tops, so it is possible to make a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) correction now and then rebound towards January 2025 for a Double Top peak.
As a result, we now turn bearish on Nikkei for the next 3 months, targeting 36000 and after the 1W MA50 holds, buy again for an end-of-year target at 40000, before the next correction/ Bear Cycle starts.
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NIKKEI is starting a new rally.Last time we looked at Nikkei (NI225) for the long-term (May 26 2022), it gave us the most optimal buy entry we could expect (see chart below), as it bounced on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 almost hit 34000:
The index has since seen a 4 month correction (from July to October) to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which held and initiated a rebound. This rebound is technically the introduction to the new multi-month rally towards the top of the Channel Up. This is consistent with the pre COVID crash consolidation and before that with the first three quarters of 2017.
Both sequences completed rallies of approximately +63%, the first to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the second above the 2.0 Fib level. As a result if we take a modest approach to the upcoming rally, we expect to see at least 36700, which is the 2.0 Fib ext. and is our long-term target. A new +63% rise from the bottom though, gives as a 40300 price tag.
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In Short Medium Term Nifty & Nikkei are Correcting DownsideAs we can see on the above chart, Nifty & Nikkei have two different Corrective Structures . Nifty and Nikkei is a ABC and WXY correction respectively. So the Right Side in the short medium term is down or turning down . Now we expect that the correction will be completed in the end of third quarterly, 2023. At this moment we only identify Nifty with bullish structure for daily time frame. It's also important to continue checking the correlation of Asian Indices with European and American Indices as we're doing.
NIKKEI A great opportunity to invest. 7 years recurring pattern.The Nikkei index (NI225) has been on a strong correction phase since its September Highs. Despite the early March rebound just above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it was rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) pulling the index back towards the lows.
Notice on this chart, however, that the March rebound was performed on a Higher Lows trend-line that is holding for almost 10 years, since October 2012. It was on that trend-line that Nikkei made the bottoms of June 2016, December 2018 and August 2019 and rebounded. Interestingly enough on all cases that was on or marginally around the 1W MA200. The only exception to that was the global asset crash of March 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, which of course is classified as a Black Swan event, and was the only time that the Higher Lows trend-line broke.
As a result, we have a 7 year sample of corrections that end with a bottom on the 1W MA200 and/or the Higher Lows trend-line. At the same time, when the 1W RSI makes Higher lows following an (near) test of the 30.00 oversold level, it indicates that the bottom of the correction is in and the index starts a new Bull Phase.
This indicates that the current level is a confirmed long-term buy opportunity on Nikkei.
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NIKKEI a bearish long-term signalNot the most of encouraging formations for Nikkei as not only is the price struggling to break the 12-year Higher Highs trend-line (light blue zone) and has been consolidating on the 1W time-frame, but the 1W RSI is on its Resistance level too while the MACD printed a Bearish Cross.
Similar occurrences in the past have caused the index to pull-back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) once and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) twice.
What about this time?
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