Get started

Nimbuscapital

Nasdaq, Possible downsideEarning season is here! While the major banks earnings were somewhat positive overall, the Tech Sector got a rocky start Netflix missed revenue estimate and subscription numbers Tesla went from growth to both Revenue and Earning contraction for 1Q2023. There is a glut in the chip sector as well which doesn't really spell good news for AMD and NVDA. Considering that NVDA is in the overbought zone, the bias towards the downside is highly probable. We shall await earnings for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta in the upcoming weeks. Nasdaq is a sell if 12800 support is broken. As long as that support level is held, shorts should not be initiated.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
Apple, more down side aheadIt is no secret that we are bearish on Apple. Recent demand for iPhones has gone down rapidly. Revenue and income show sign of the company going ex-growth. Price is now below the earning "rally". The gap at 149-145 which should act as strong support is now broken. We should be seeing more downside toward the 136 level. On a longer time frame, we expect Apple to retest the low. Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes. It is not to be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell. Nimbus Capital Solution may or may not take trades based on the idea shared. We employed a hedge fund-liked long/short portfolio strategy which focuses on our portfolio as a holistic trading vehicle rather than on individual stock/trade. We also employ bespoke portfolio management and risk management strategies to reduce our overall risk. Your capital could be at risk should you copy our trade idea blindly. Nimbus Capital Solution takes no responsibility for losses incurred by blind copy traders.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by NimbusCapital
Nasdaq, FOMC "disinflation" rally gains is goneWe warn of this selldown just 1 week ago while everyone else is calling for dip buying and all-time high targets Now the market is calling for a 50bps hike. Some are going as far as a 75bps hike for March 2023. So what happened here? 1) Unprecedented activity in the options market. Massive buying of call options by FOMOers and YOLOers has a material impact on the stock market. However, these trades are considered short-term weak trades. They have no holding power. Hence, once the options expired (17 Feb 2023 was the option expiry), there was no genuine buying to support the market. 2) Threat of inflation evident in NFP, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data 3) The nail in the coffin; 50bps hike is being considered for March 2023 FOMC. And finally, price action and technicals are now aligned with the macros. We are already holding put options on Home Depot (before earning crash) and Apple (before 17 Feb 2023). We will be adding more short/put options to our portfolio while trimming our long positions. Expect more downside on Nasdaq 100, S&P500, discretionary and tech stocks.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
Oil the lagger! Potential short term upside.Make no mistake; we are bearish on Oil and Gas over the longer term. The longer-term price trend is still on the downside. This is on the back of a recessionary theme and global demand destruction. As of now, the market rally is still fueled by the "Fed Pivot" expectation. The credit market is fighting the Fed, sending the yield and the dollar to the downside. Gold, commodities, and Crude are beneficiaries of such market behavior. The dollar index has been down for four consecutive months. In the same period Gold has been green for three consecutive months Iron Ore futures are also up for three consecutive months Copper futures are also up for three consecutive months This makes Crude the lagger. www.tradingview.com However, given that we have monthly candles supporting at $80 per barrel, there is a potential for a short-term upside toward $95-$100 before the market realizes how shitty the economy is. We do want to emphasize one thing. Fed Pivot Rally only works if the Fate hike can bring inflation down without sending the economy into contraction. This requires the underlying economic conditions to remain strong. We have two sets of data that show the manufacturing and service sector have gone into contraction. Unfortunately, most folks do not understand that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator; it is a symptom of sickness, and the sickness is a recession. You must get the sickness first to experience the symptom. Saying the unemployment rate is low hence no recession risk, is like saying, "I'm not coughing right now, so that means in the future I will not get covid19 ." Now let's look at a proper Leading Economic Indicator: Building Permits. Noticed how Building Permits peaked in Oct 2005 and dived to the bottom in Jan 2009. If you look at the Unemployment rate in Sep 2006 and conclude that the economy is great because of the low unemployment rate, that would be a grave mistake. We will skip the 2020 Covid19 data as Federal Reserve was quick to come to the economy's rescue hence skewing the data. Building Permits peaked on 01 Feb 2022, and it is heading down at an alarming pace. The unemployment rate remains low because it is a lagging indicator. Other leading indicators, such as Manufacturing and Service Business activities, are diving as well. So how does this lead back to Oil and other commodities? Oil can maintain an uptrend if the underlying economy is strong enough to warrant the demand. Thus any rally in oil right now is in the hope that Fed can achieve a soft landing and that the aggregate demand will return without sending inflation back into the stratosphere again. Now that is a tall order and is highly improbable. All this is to say, let's take advantage of the commodities' upside while it last before the reality kicks in. Do not overstay your welcome. You may also consider the Material Sector, which benefits greatly from the dollar downside. Do note XLB is now considered slightly overbought. Unless you are good at picking individual material stocks, you may want to wait for a retrace. This is precisely why we pick Oil, as it is the lagger. We will be looking into shorting Brent again in the future.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by NimbusCapital
1
S&P500, was Friday (06 Jan 23) really Bull move?As we close out the first trading week of 2023, all 3 US indices close on Friday with a 2+% gain. What a great start to 2023! Is it really, though? If you think the market rallied on higher than expected NFP and lower unemployment rates, this is your first mistake. For most of 2022, the market had considered any economic strength is bad for stocks because it would mean higher inflation and a lower chance of a Fed Pivot. We saw this time and time again in 2022 when the market dropped on lower unemployment rates, higher wages, and higher retail sales. Even Jerome Powell has stated countless times in FOMC that the tight labor market is terrible for bringing down inflation. What caused the market rally, then? The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report. What you see here is the 1-hour chart of the S&P500. The market did rally on the NFP report, but it came back down immediately. However, at 11 pm, when ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers came out, it gave the market confidence to rally. What is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report? It measures the business activity in the non-manufacturing sector, mainly the service sector. The service sector accounts for 80% of US business activities, and manufacturing accounts for the remaining 20%. After 30 consecutive months of activity growth (Since May 2020), the Service sector has contracted. Before last Friday, the last time Service Sector went into contraction was during the Covid19 crash and the Housing Crisis. So this is a piece of terrible news, then? Why did the market rally? The market believes that a weakening economic condition will trigger Federal Reserve to cut the rate. The market still believes in this delusional Fed Pivot narrative. Time and time again, Jerom Powell will come out during FOMC and kill the rally. During Dec 2022 press conference, Powell explicitly stated, "No Pivot in 2023" (go see the conference for yourself). The market is still fighting the Fed. The 10 Year Yield and 2 Year Yield diving 4% also proves this delusional "Fed Pivot" mindset. The Fed is raising FFR to keep the rate high to discourage cheap money. But if the 10Year and 2 Year rates are crashing on the backdrop of a delusional scenario, it will make the Fed's job even harder. They even stated that in the December meeting minutes. "Unwarranted easing in financial condition, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVEN BY A MISPERCEPTION BY THE PUBLIC or the committee's reaction function, would complicate the committee's effort to restore price stability." Once again, this market rally has no legs to stand on. When the FOMC decision arrives on 31 Jan 2023, Powell will stop this rally dead on its track again. Or maybe the CPI number coming this Thursday may slap some sense into the market. Do not get tricked (again). This is not the first time. Both July 2022 and October 2022 rallies were also based on a Pivot delusion. And it did not end well. If you are long-biased, do not overstay your welcome. I will be heading to these two key event with a short bias portfolio. NOTE: Banks and Big Techs earnings are coming up!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
[Chart of the Day] Amazon, possible resistance and short setupAmazon just got a stock split. It is now at a level that retail traders can afford. There is a huge resistance at 130 levels. Yesterday's pin bar candle shows rejection in price. We may see a further decline in price if the resistance level holds. If the price can breach beyond 132, it may rise further to close the gap at 138. If you decide to short at the current price, 132 is the key resistance level that you should look out for. You should look to cut your short if the price goes beyond 132. Traders may choose to wait for the price to break down to below 119 before opting for the short trade. This is because 120 - 125 does seem like a consolidation zone. Shorting at the current price may run the risk of getting stuck in the consolidation zone. Nimbus's Verdict: Possible Short Setup. Stay away from placing long positions.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] Norton, a low beta Tech.. with some potentialNorton showed up on my radar on Monday (07 Feb 22) The moment I saw "Packaged Software" and "Technology Service", my first thought was "I'm staying the hell away from this" And then it shows up on my radar again today. The only difference is, it is now 9% higher in price. But that was not what caught my attention. If you look at the price action from Nov 2021 where Tech Counters peaked, to the end Jan 22 where everything crashes, Norton seems to be its own world. Only then did I realize Norton has a 1 year Beta of 0.40! A rare find in today's Tech centric stock market where every tech counters have a beta higher than 1. This is important because it fit the role of a... "Defensive" tech. if there's ever such a theme. 3Q result looks promising with very modest forward guidance of 10% YoY Growth. It is one of those counters that underpromise and overdeliver, which kind of prevent crazy up and down price movement. Norton would fit a very unique role of low beta, less volatile, long tech position in your overall portfolio. Norton (Low beta mid-cap Tech) could go alongside Apple/Microsoft/Google (the higher beta mega-cap Tech). Unfortunately, prices have gone up by quite a bit. We can wait for a short retracement for a better entry. If you're FOMO, you can consider separating your position into two parts; one part to enter at the current price, the second part to enter at a retracement.
N
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] Google, up up and we go!Google along with Microsoft are the few Tech Companies that still have huge growth potentials. While it might be a little complacent to say "the only way is up", it would be more accurate to say "Up is the path of least resistance". However, as traders, the more important question would be "How much drawdown can we handle". We cannot trade with the expectation that the price will immediately head up right after we enter. Hence there are three buy levels here for google base on their consolidation. The drawdown to the last buy level is about 27%, and this is the sort of drawdown level that traders must be able to stomach without being stopped out by random noise movement or a short retracement. Once you are able to understand this concept, trading will become effortless and easy. Be ready to average down when the price reaches these buy levels. Your total risk should account for the possibility of price hitting Buy Level 3. Trading should be earning you money while you spend time on your hobbies or families. If you're sitting in front of a screen scalping day in day out, then it's no better than a 2nd part-time job!
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by NimbusCapital
Splunk, A short Potential, declining Revenue and no profit. There's one thing in common in the current tech selldown 1) Revenue-driven companies that have not seen any profits yet are diving down by more than >30%. These are companies that are striving for high revenue generation through high spending and debt. Think Crowdstrike, Door Dash, Lemonade, Peloton, etc 2) Profit-driven and cash-rich Tech companies such Microsoft, Apple, or Google are still surviving and have yet to drop more than 20% from their high. (yes yes Microsoft drop 21 % before rebounding sharply) Still, Tech is maybe not what you would want to be in right now... but, we can go for shorts. How about, companies that have declining revenue (not even growing) and are unprofitable. The worst of both worlds. Here we have Splunk who consistently miss estimate, declining revenue, and is unprofitable. Please take note that this does not mean SHORT RIGHT NOW!, but rather to it is something to watchlist and take a short position when the time is right.
SShort
by NimbusCapital
TSMC, the cup is formed. Shall we wait for the handle?The OG chipmaker raking in record profits and beating expectations! Upon the positive result announcement, the price gap up but closed with a slightly disappointing shooting star. Yet, Friday's (14 Jan 22) closing tells us that buyers are still willing to pay a higher price for TSM and the price manages to close at all-time high. Price technically close above the previous resistance level, but it is not convincing enough. We shall have to prepare for a potential retracement AKA "the Handle" of the recently formed "Cup". There are two possible ways to play this. 1) The Dollar Cost Average way. You will use the previous support level, 145, as a focal point. That is to say, your stop loss and risk management will be based on that level. This is because, if the price manages to break below previous support despite good earnings, then there is very little reason to be holding on to this. From a supply/demand perspective, there are overwhelming supplies for the price to move up smoothly. However, as long as the price is above this support level, a higher low can be formed and the price will go higher. But since we do not know where the higher low will be, we will place our position in small batches as the price retrace lower, instead of one big position at the current price. Of course, you should still plan out the maximum limit of your intended position to work out your overall risk. The first batch of your positions could be at the current price to ensure you can still capture something if the price continues to head higher. This option requires holding power as you will most likely be buying to declining and/or sideways price action. 2) Wait for a higher low (the handle) to form first As the previous support level is too far from the current price, it is better to wait for the higher low to form first. Once a higher low has been formed, you can take the trade with one big position with relatively safe assurance that the higher low will hold. As with option 1), there is no way to know where the higher low will be, thus you will have to depend on price action and candlestick reading to determine this. This option has a higher risk as if you predict the higher low wrongly, it could result in a losing trade. However, the reward is also higher as you will be able to get a precise entry without the need for averaging down. Option one has more room for error at the cost of requiring better holding power. You might also not have the opportunity to enter the full position as intended as you are slowly spreading them out. This could result in lower profits. Option two requires more precision and not much room for error. However, it rewards you with a much better entry position without needlessly spreading your seeds.
NYSE:TSMLong
by NimbusCapital
Semcorp Industry, not really a strong buySemcorp Industry got its happy ending after divorce from its toxic marriage with Sembcorp Marine. Price has been up ever since. In fact, we had a previous buy call back in April 2021. It hits our TP level of 2.20 back then, and it is now trying to re-test the resistance at 2.30 again. Whether it can break the resistance or not, we cannot say. However, as long as the price is maintained above the support level of 1.63, Sembcorp Ind remains bullish. It could consolidate for months or years before it can break out, nobody knows. Hence holding power is important because there is no analysis that can predict time. There is also another major resistance at the 2.50 level, which makes it less attractive to other available options out there. On the bright side, it does have a dividend yield of 3.0% at its current price. So you're not really "losing" for holding if the price goes sideway for a prolonged period Verdict: If you wish to buy, make sure you can hold. I, personally will look for better options.
SGX:U96Long
by NimbusCapital
Tencent... is it good to bottom pick now?My Humble Opinion on Tencent Currently, the price is in the consolidation zone. Note that the "consolidation" process is a neutral term. It does not have a bullish or bearish bias. It just means that there are BOTH buyers and sellers interested within that narrow range. Hence there is a lot of transactions for a long period. Over a period of time, either the sellers will run out of interest or the buyers will. When this happens, the price will move accordingly. Given that the primary uptrend is still intact, we can safely assume a small bullish bias on this consolidation. This does not mean that price will be 100% supported. It just means that the chances of price going up are slightly higher. Should the price falls below 400 into the Bear Territory, traders will need to get the hell out. Value Investors might need to relook at the fundamentals before blindly averaging down. If the price heads up after the consolidation, we will expect some form of selling pressure at 525 to 580. So do not expect a sharp recovery. If I am looking to trade this, I will not touch Tencent until the price can recover above 600 (Bull Territory) On the other hand, Value Investors may continue to pick up these stocks during this consolidation phase IF this company is aligned with your investment goals (certainly not aligned with mine) Personal Verdict: Stay the hell away!
HKEX:700
by NimbusCapital
1
Tesla. Bullish but... can you handle the volatility?Tesla, definitely bullish after beating the production estimate. The price went up 13% yesterday. If a trader can make a profit just by chasing bullish candle/price action, then all of us would be a billionaire. Unfortunately, life isn't that simple. We have to account for any possibility of a price drop. Theoretically, the trend will still be considered up, even if the price drop, as long as a higher low is maintained. The previous swing level is at 885 which is a whopping 26% drop from the current price. This is the maximum retracement price can fall while still maintaining a theoretical uptrend. Hence, if you cannot handle this 26% swing in price, then chasing Tesla at its current price may not be wise for you. For those who are willing to risk a 26% drop, you might have to reduce your lot sizing drastically. And this is something traders with small accounts might not be able to afford. Verdict: Bullish price action... but whether you can take a long position depends on if you can handle a 26% drop
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by NimbusCapital
3
Apple... Take a bite whenever it drop from a treeOne of the top tier counters alongside Microsoft The "rebound" 167 is not really established support yet. That level can be still broken and the price could potentially head toward 160. Traders often make the mistake of prematurely calling "SUPPPORTTT!!!!" as soon as they see some form of rebound and then go YOLO. As long as the resistance at 181 is held, the price can break 167. However, 156 to 160 level is actually a very strong support. If traders can manage their lot sizing and plan their trade using this level as a pivot point, the position will not only be safer but also resilient to random noise movement. Apple is still on a long-term uptrend even if it retraces towards 140. Go slow and steady. Take care of your risk and profit shall come!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by NimbusCapital
1
[Analysis] Meta (FB)... still a strong counter!Meta {FB} have dropped 21% from its all-time high during the past 2 months of market retracement. Nonetheless, the uptrend and chart structure is still intact. We have a very strong hit of resistance turned support at 300. This price level can be a focal point for investors looking to enter or traders looking to work out their stop loss level. As long as this level is not breached, Meta (FB) remains bullish from a technical perspective. The next major support level is at 245. More conservative traders/investors could choose to wait for this level if they feel the current market is still weak. However, you will run the risk of missing out should Meta (FB) rally from its current price. Anything below 240, would be considered a bear territory. TL:DR Still bullish Use 300 or 245 levels to plan your trade
NASDAQ:METALong
by NimbusCapital
Microsoft, always buy on dip... with managed risk!Unlike my usual Trade setup, I have much more tolerance for my long-term holding that isn't just based on Technical alone. This is because I am usually buying in small batches on dips rather than placing a big lump sum at one go. Microsoft has so far shown strong earnings and fundamentals. Unlike other growth companies like NVDA or TSLA which have ridiculous P/E, MSFT P/E is at 35. From the perspective of a US Growth/Tech company, this is a steal. Of course, fundamentals are more than just earnings and P/E ratios. This is not my area of expertise. There are many great fundamental analysts out there that can provide you with a deeper understanding of Microsoft's business Crucial Support levels are at 320, 280, and 250. These are levels where I personally would Buy On Dips. The "Oh No!" zone at price 197 - 227 is crucial. This is where, instead of blindly buying on dips due to CoNvIcTiOn, we might want to relook into Microsoft's business and the overall markets. Is the broad market dropping? Is there a catalyst that is causing the market to fall? If Microsoft is dropping along with the board market, while still being able to maintain its earnings, then we are fine. We will look at more buy on dips opportunity. However, if Microsft's earnings took a hit while the overall market is doing good. Then we will consider cutting it. Until then, buy in small batches for your long-term holding. Do manual Dollar Cost Average!
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] Nvidia, should you buy this retrace ?In Nimbus Capital, our entry strategy consist of a 3 point analysis. 1) Trend; Is the trend in direction of our trade? Is it an uptrend or downtrend now? 2) Chart Structure; Is the price at support? Or is it breaking out? 3) Candle; Does the candle shows bullishness such as a hammer or engulfing? In the cause of Nvidia 1) Trend; The main trend is up 2) Chart structure; Price is currently at previously known resistance 3) Candle; The latest candle seems to be resembling a Hammer candle We have to also note that the price is very close to the previous consolidation area. The consolidation area represents a price level in which a Bull/Bear battle took place, and in this case, the bull has won. Hence if this area was to be breached, the price goes below 180, then it is a sign that Bears have retaken this level. As long as the price remains above this level, Nvidia is a good buy!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] SATS... is recovery on its way?From a long-term perspective, the low during Apr 2020 covid19 marks a higher low and creates major support at 2.50-3.00 level. Since then, prices have rebounded more than 60% and eventually hitting the resistance of 4.60. The price is now retracing lower and forming (seems like) a bullish flag on a smaller time frame. We have a few things to take note of here. 1) The major resistance at 4.50-5.00 will not be broken anytime soon. Price will be met with supplies/selling at this zone. In the short/mid-term, this will be the target price. 2) Price is currently retracing, and we do not know how far it will retrace. 3) Anything below 2.50 is considered bearish, as we will be breaking the higher low. As such, your best approach to taking this counter will be buying as close to the major support as possible, so you have room for profits. You can split your entries into two buy levels. One will be at 3.50, and the other will be at 3.00. This will ensure you will at least get one position in should the price decide to recover midway. Needless to be said, you want to be out of this trade if it broke down below 2.500. 2021 FY earnings will be a key decider.
SGX:S58
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] SIA, Too big to Fail?Struggling airlines have always been the target of bottom picking from Traders; simply because "It's cheap now!" But is the risk worth it? There is a saying in the stock market "Buy Low, Sell High". Sadly though, the reality is usually "Buy high, sell higher" or "Buy low, sell lower" We have seen from examples such as Sembcorp Marine that traders who chose to buy at $1.00 or even $0.500 because it is cheap, are facing rights issues and paper losses. SIA is a national carrier. The government will not let it fall. But, they will only support it so much it keeps it alive. This means there is a high probability for future financing events such as more rights issues, new shares replacement, perpetual bonds, etc. This would mean SIA is indeed too big to fail but, it will have a very very hard time seeing its glory days of $14/share ever again. Too big to fail does not equate to higher share prices. In fact, it could continue to plunge in order to raise money to keep it alive. Major resistance is at 7.00. We do not believe SIA will ever go back to pre-covid19 prices anytime in the next 5 years. If you wish to have some stakes in SIA, you may do so in a safer way by proxy of STI ETF.
SGX:C6L
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] Crowdstrike (CRWD)(US)Making new highs! Whether you choose to chase the price or are waiting for a retracement, there is two support that you should definitely watch out for! 1) 245 2) 220 - 200, this is more a zone. Your stop-loss price will have to be base on either one of the support. 220-200 is the price range in which major consolidation occurs. I.e loads of demands! Depending on your style of trades, there are a few ways you may go about this 1) Aggressive chase. Chase this current breakout. Stoploss is set below the current support of 245. This is an aggressive play. You are hoping that price will rally further and are not looking for a retrace. Pros: You're in the trade. You will not miss the if it continues to run. Cons: You are prone to be stopped out by a retracement. Hence the stop loss ensures you will still be in the trade, albeit at a higher price. Given the nature of the breakout, this is most likely the best play. However, ensure your risk management can stomach a drop to 245 2) Conservative approach Wait for the price to retrace back to 245 then enter. A slightly conservative play. You are hoping that sellers are still lurking around to push down the price. Pros: You will be able to get a better price. Your risk/reward will be much higher Cons: Miss the trade if it does not retrace. 3) Hybrid approach Split your entry into two batches. Chase with one batch. Wait for a retrace to 245 with the other batch. Pros: Best of both worlds. Cons: Won't be as profitable as either 1 or 2. Twice the commission This is a more balanced approach. My favorite approach. 4) The Long shot. Wait for the price to dive to 220-200. Pros: The established major demand zone. There are bound to be buyers here. The best price. Cons: Price might never go back there. There is no best way to go about taking a position. Each option has its own pros and cons. Overall, this counter is a bullish uptrend. You, as a trader, should determine your style and the approach you should be taking. More importantly, you should prioritize taking care of your risks. Let the market worries about profit.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by NimbusCapital
[Analysis] Should you chase Nike (NKE)No doubt that Nike's surprise earning result and its gap up would tickle many Trader's FOMO nerves. Us included. The question is, is it too late to chase? In order to answer this question, we must first answer another question. Are you looking for a fast short-term Trade? If your answer is No, then the answer to the first question is also NO; it's not too late to chase. However, be reminded that this won't be a fast trade. Be prepared to hold if the price were to retrace. The major support level is at 120, hence your stop loss should be below 120. Instead of entering all your position in one trade, split them into two. Chase the current price with half of your positions. For the remaining half, average down at 135. By doing this, you are still profitable should the price continue to go up. If it retraces, you will still be able to take advantage of the lower prices. Do ensure that your overall risk is still calculated on both position hitting your Stop loss.
NYSE:NKE
by NimbusCapital
1